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Houston Texans Offense
Vs. Cardinals
Almost every skilled position player is playable for the Texans offense this week against what is still a woeful Cardinals defense. This game has an over/under of 47.5 (tied for the highest of the week) and an implied point total for the Texans of 26.5 (3rd highest of the week).
C.J. Stroud has already run away with the offensive rookie of the year award, and is entering the MVP conversation in earnest on the back of 2 consecutive top 10 fantasy finishes at QB. He’s getting his favourite target back in Nico Collins, and Tank Dell is a big play waiting to happen now that he’s healthy and consistently on the field. With Noah Brown’s short lived breakout put on hold due to a multi week knee injury, Collins and Dell are back to being the #1A and #1B at wide receiver. Collins would be my preferred play in PPR leagues, but if you need the potential of a game winning week, Dell is your guy.
In the backfield, the Texans showed that they can run a little in week 10 with Devin Singletary taking over the lead role, and the Cardinals give up the 3rd most points to running backs. Over the past 2 weeks with Pierce out, Singletary handled 75% of offensive snaps against the Bucs (albeit in a dud of a performance) and 81% of snaps against the Bengals in a career high 150 yard showing. Pierce has already been ruled out for Sunday’s game, so Singletary will have the backfield to himself again this week in a positive matchup.
Dalton Schultz has even proven to be a valuable fantasy commodity in this offense. Over the past 5 weeks he has 27-332-3 receiving line on 39 targets. That 5 game stretch would project to a 92-1128-10 season over 17 games which is kind of incredible. He’s had only 1 game where he wasn’t a top 9 fantasy tight end since week 4 of the season, with 2 second place finishes during that stretch. He’s a must start now in any matchup.
Jared Goff (QB) – Detroit Lions
Vs. Chicago
The matchup that’s tied with the Texans vs Cardinals game for the highest over/under is Goff’s Lions at home to the Chicago Bears. The Bears defense is ranked at the bottom of the league across the board, and are giving up the 4th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. We could have done the same with the Lions as we did with the Texans – listed their entire offense – but no one questions starting Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam Laporta or even the split backfield work of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The return of Justin Fields will keep the score closer than it would be if Bagent was getting another start, so Goff can easily churn out top 10 fantasy numbers in the first 3 quarters before the Lions put things on cruise control.
De’Von Achane (RB) – Miami Dolphins
Vs. Las Vegas
I don’t think I would recommend any small, speed dependent explosive running back coming back from a long absence due to a knee injury in his first week of action – other than Achane. There’s no way I would keep him on my bench and wait and see how he looks. The Dolphins took things slowly with Achane’s recovery by placing him on IR, and as of this writing, they’ve yet to announce that he will in fact make his return, but all signs are pointing to yes.
Achane is currently ranked as the 23rd running back on the season despite the 4 week absence. If you take out week 1 (healthy scratch) and week 2 (1 touch), from weeks 3 to 10 he is still the RB 9, ahead of guys like Pacheco, Gibbs, Henry, Hall and Mixon DESPITE BEING ON IR.
I get it if you want to be patient and see if he’s ok. But Mostert has been on and off the injury report all week, the Raiders defense is very beatable on the ground. Achane, and his career 12 yards per carry, can single handedly carry you to victory this week. I would rather have him in my lineup and have him disappoint than go off for 25+ points on my bench.
Ty Chandler (RB) – Minnesota Vikings
@ Denver
Chandler is another small, explosive back that looked to have the RB2 role locked up entering his 2nd season. The Vikings, however, seemed to quickly lose faith in Chandler, and even traded for Cam Akers to spell starter Alexander Mattison midway through the year. Well, now Akers is out for the season with his second torn achilles, and Mattison is still working his way through concussion protocol. Before Mattison left last week’s game against the Saints, Chandler was already getting more touches than expected. The team even used him in the wildcat at the goal line – you do not do that unless you have trust in the player.
Chandler might not end up with the most carries for the team this week against Denver, but he brings an interesting speed element to their run game that’s been missing all season. HC Kevin O’Connell has been quietly garnering some coach of the year talk as he tries to lead his Vikings towards the playoffs despite losing Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins, so I expect him to find creative ways to use Joshua Dobbs and Ty Chandler against an improving Broncos defense.
Courtland Sutton (WR) – Denver Broncos
Vs Minnesota Vikings
Sutton’s yardage totals are nothing to get excited about, but his red zone target rate, and as a result his touchdown totals are incredible. He has the 2nd most receiving touchdowns this season thanks to the 6th most red zone looks, and has clearly surpassed Jerry Jeudy as the team’s WR1. The Vikings defense has been excellent at shutting down the run this season, but are allowing the 8th most fantasy points to wide receivers. So in a matchup that could have offensive fireworks, Sutton is the guy to target.
DeVonta Smith (WR) – Philadelphia Eagles
@ Kansas City
While these are still two of the top teams in the league coming off of meeting in last year’s Super Bowl, something still feels…off about both the Chiefs and the Eagles. They’ve been getting it done more on the backs of their defenses than on offense, with the Chiefs becoming a surprisingly strong defensive unit over the past few weeks. (Side note – I hoped you grabbed the Chiefs defense in every league you can if they were dropped during their bye week – they’re really good and have a tasty schedule the rest of the way).
However, this is a really good spot for Smith. We’ve all heard by now that Goedert is out with a broken forearm, and that Smith exploded last season when Goedert was hurt – to the tune of a 30% increase in target share – leading him to be a top 12 WR in those games. L’Jarius Snead will likely spend the game shadowing A.J. Brown, giving Smith a massive opportunity to be a true impact player in this game. Jalen Hurts is still clearly dealing with a knee issue, so Smith will be working those underneath routes and screens that usually go to Goedert as the Eagles try to get the ball out of his hands quickly.
Sit
Amari Cooper (WR) – Cleveland Browns
Vs. Steelers
With Deshaun Watson out for the rest of the season, the Browns named rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson their new starting quarterback. His first NFL start was a disaster (although it was on short notice), and there are serious questions as to why he’s getting thrown into this divisional game that will have serious implications on the playoffs. Cooper was targeted 6 times in that week 4 matchup, but could only reel in 1 catch for 16 yards with DTR at the helm. Cooper bumps down from a very safe WR2 to a shaky WR3 until we can get a look at what DTR can do with a week’s worth of practice with the #1 offense.
Gabe Davis (WR) – Buffalo Bills
Vs Jets
Davis has an incredible history of putting up his biggest games on weeks where he’s widely panned as a sit candidate, and a matchup against the Jets certainly fits that bill. Davis struggles against man coverage – something the Jets use at the 8th highest rate in the league. And with how inefficient the Jets offense is at moving the ball down the field, teams rarely have the need to throw against them. Opponents this season are averaging the most rush attempts per game, but the 6th fewest pass attempts against the stalworth Jets defense. I recommended introducing some volatility with your lineup earlier with Achane, but the odds of Davis reaching his ceiling in this matchup are too low for my liking.
Isiah Pacheco (RB) – Kansas City Chiefs
Vs. Philadelphia
Isiah Pacheco entered the bye week by playing his season high percentage of offensive snaps, and has an extremely favourable rest of season schedule. Unfortunately this week, he’ll be in tough against the Eagles and their #1 defense against the run in fantasy. Pacheco has been a pleasant surprise in fantasy this season considering his draft position, but the 8.9 points per game the Eagles allow to the position is 18% fewer than any other team. The Chiefs would be wise to exploit Philadelphia’s vulnerable linebackers and defensive backfield this week.
Khalil Herbert (RB) and D’Onta Foreman (RB) – Chicago Bears
@ Detroit
The Bears are getting their QB1 and RB1 back after they both missed multiple weeks with injuries. As a result, the Bears backfield will be a muddled mess against a Lions defense that gives up the 5th fewest points to running backs. At the start of the season, Foreman was a healthy scratch as Herbert was the starter, Roschon Johnson was the change of pace back, and they used the other RB spots on guys who play special teams. Now, Foreman has played well enough in the absence of Herbert, that the Bears have to give him some touches on offense. Add in Field’s scrambling, and they’re all getting a slice of a very small pie.
Cut
Trevor Lawrence (QB) – Jacksonville Jaguars
Vs. Tennessee
Lawrence is currently the QB20 in overall rankings, and the QB24 in average points per game with an absolutely dreadful 14.79 points per contest.
The shift of play calling from head coach Doug Pederson to offensive coordinator Press Taylor this season has drastically altered this offense to the point where a waiver wire pick up is more likely to have a better impact on your roster than Lawrence. Lawrence has thrown for over 300 yards just once this season, and has the same amount of touchdown-less games as he has multi-touchdown games resulting in exactly 0 weeks where he has put up over 20 fantasy points. He’s currently still owned in 91% of leagues, and with the dramatic injuries to the quarterback position this season, that’s somewhat understandable. But this late in the season, Lawrence owner’s are probably struggling to make playoffs so throwing a more volatile quarterback with a higher ceiling into your lineup could be warranted.
Christian Watson (WR) – Green Bay Packers
Vs. LA Chargers
Watson entered the season with plenty of hype and hasn’t come close to reaching it. In fact, outside of his incredible 4 game stretch in 2022 with Aaron Rodgers, his highest finish is as the WR14 (also last season). His top week this season was the WR24 in week 5. This young Green Bay offense is still finding its footing, but they’re just not utilizing Watson as the downfield threat that he can be. He’s being forced into making too many contested catches, which has never been a strong part of his game. There will be more hope for next season as the group grows together, but it doesn’t look like it’s happening in 2023.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Keith Allison. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.