Patience is running thin in Sens land. The 2017 playoff run feels like a distant memory, and for good reason. Thomas Chabot was still playing in the QMJHL, and captain Brady Tkachuk was a year away from being drafted by the club. Now, Chabot will be 27 in January and Tkachuk just turned 24 a few weeks prior. The core of the Senators, while still considered “young” by most metrics, aren’t kids anymore. The youngest player on the team, Ridly Greig, just turned 21 this summer.
The need to make the playoffs this year cannot be understated. “Meaningful games” should no longer be a part of the team’s vocabulary. That being said, most fans are reasonably high on this team and for good reason. Like any team, there may be some weaknesses to criticize. But for the most part, everything points to this roster being able to compete for a playoff spot. Here are 5 reasons why the Senators will make the playoffs this year.
Scoring
Out of the top 16 teams in goals for last year, 13 of them made the playoffs. While playoff success typically favours defensive performance, the regular season is the opposite. Because there are 82 games, the play is usually more open than in a more condensed playoff schedule.
The Senators have some weapons up front, and all signs point to these players not dropping off because of age. The Senators realistically could have eight 20 goal scorers amongst their forward core. They could also have three 40-point defensemen in Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson, and Jakob Chychrun. It’s possible you see a drop off from someone like Claude Giroux, but his smarts will keep him as a top six forward for at least a couple more years.
Defensive depth
For the longest time, defensive depth was the biggest weakness on this team. Players like Erik Karlsson and Thomas Chabot were usually run into the ground. Building a good blueline is harder than some think and often takes years. And that was certainly the case with the Senators, but brighter days are ahead.
There’s no Cale Makar or Adam Fox, but there’s three very good defenders that offer different playing styles and can log big minutes when called up. Chabot, looking to rebound after a tough season, is the team’s most mobile defenseman. He’s an excellent skater who is one of the best solo breakout machines in the league.
Jake Sanderson is the best pure defender to enter the NHL in quite some time. He rarely makes mistakes and covers up his teammates’ mistakes as well. He has elite defensive upside and should be this teams #1 defenseman going forward, even though he may not light it up offensively.
Jakob Chychrun may not be as mobile as Chabot and Sanderson but is solid defensively and has the heaviest shot on the team. All three have the ability to play like top pair defenseman this year. Rounding out the top four is Artem Zub as your defensive specialist, and suddenly Ottawa has a stable lineup that doesn’t have many holes.
Shooting percentage
Despite being 18th in goals for, Ottawa was 24th in shooting percentage last season. It’s fair to expect those numbers to come back to the mean in 2023-24. With Josh Norris back in the lineup, that should certainly help the team’s overall shooting percentage. Jakob Chychrun’s shot from the backend will also factor in over a full season. Dominik Kubalik has also been added, and has been a known bottom six sniper in the past. The one thing the Senators have been improving in during the DJ Smith era is slot selection. Not just quantity of shots, but high danger opportunities.
They have (super)stars at forward
For perhaps the first time since the Jason Spezza days, the Ottawa Senators have two players with high scoring ceilings. One is Brady Tkachuk, who gets better every year when it comes to scoring. He may not be a 100-point player like his brother, but there’s reason to believe there’s another level that he can still reach offensively.
While he’s not a complete line driver, he doesn’t need to be because of his linemate. Tim Stutzle reached new heights last season, and may just become better than Spezza when all is said and done. While we knew Stutzle was exceptionally skilled, few could have expected his 93 points this past season. Based on this trajectory, it wouldn’t be too bold of a prediction to see Stutzle log a 100-point campaign this year.
Josh Norris (should) be healthy
For the second season, the Senators lost a top nine center for most of the year. In 2021-22 it was Shane Pinto, and 2022-23 saw Josh Norris play 8 total games. Anytime you lose a top six forward it hurts, but losing a center always makes it worse. Especially when the replacement can’t replicate what was lost.
Norris might be a great goal scorer but is also arguably the team’s best defensive player at the top of the lineup. The player that “replaced” Norris in the lineup this past season was Dylan Gambrell. Gambrell was good defensively but was a black hole offensively. Gambrell finished the season with 10 points in 60 games, which should be easily outpaced by a significant margin by Norris this season. It also saw Shane Pinto forced into a second line position, which he wasn’t ready for. With Pinto sliding back into the 3C role (if a contract is ever worked out), Norris is the team’s ideal second line center. Over a full season, I think we can expect a 60-point season for Norris.
During the 2022-23 campaign, there was plenty of hype around this team. But it was more about the new additions and the core going forward. While they fared well with an 86 point season, expectations in the nation’s capital have been ratcheted up this year. Even though the players haven’t said the word playoffs, we all know they’re thinking it. Hopefully it will all come together for the group this year and they will reach new heights. Not only do I believe they will make the playoffs, but I’ll even go so far as to say they’ll clinch 2nd in the Atlantic by season’s end.
-Damian Smith
Twitter: @Damian__Smith
Photo: Doug Kerr. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.