Orioles Must Fortify Young Core Following Disappointing Playoff Exit
A magical 2023 season came to an end at Globe Life Field on Tuesday as the Baltimore Orioles were swept 3-0 out of the ALDS by the Texas Rangers, adding a damper to what was an extraordinary year for the AL East Division champs.
But they’ll be back soon enough, as this latest postseason run is only the first chapter in the story for one of baseball’s most exciting young teams.
It certainly caught many by surprise, considering the Orioles missed the playoffs by three games last season and lost 110 contests in 2021. And yet, they defied all odds, just as manager Brandon Hyde detailed in the moments after his team fell to elimination.
None of that, however, would’ve been possible without Baltimore’s top-notch core – headlined by Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. Despite being surrounded by an elite prospect system, that superstar duo will require additional support if the franchise is to build upon this stellar season in 2024.
Orioles general manager Mike Elias has built a tremendous foundation for his team over the last several years, stockpiling and developing layers of talent throughout the organization. But so far, he’s yet to complement them with marquee free agents or trade acquisitions.
That, without question, undoubtedly played a massive role in their best-of-five series against the Rangers, particularly on the pitching front.
Baltimore’s front office only acquired two pitchers at the trade deadline: reliever Shintaro Fujinami and starter Jack Flaherty – a pair of pending free agents. Neither hurler provided much value, as Fujinami was left off the post-season roster while Flaherty moved to the bullpen.
Texas, meanwhile, acted aggressively to improve its ‘pen, mainly out of necessity, landing Aroldis Chapman from Kansas City five weeks before the deadline. They also fortified their starting rotation by trading for Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery, who excelled down the stretch.
By not making a larger splash via trade, the Orioles not only entered the playoffs without sufficient top-line starting pitching, but they also did so with Flaherty and Kyle Gibson as their lone arms featuring prior postseason experience heading into this fall.
Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer each made their respective playoff debuts in the ALDS, gaining valuable reps for future appearances. However, that trio struggled mightily, combining for a 14.63 ERA while allowing 20 hits and six walks over just eight innings.
Starting pitching wasn’t the Orioles’ only downfall, as the offense mustered just a single run in Tuesday’s elimination game. But it was by far their weakest link. And that’s an area management must prioritize this off-season.
While Baltimore’s starting five didn’t include any household names, it held its own during the regular season, logging the sixth-most innings pitched (878.1) in the majors. However, it wasn’t always smooth sailing, as they ranked 11th in ERA (4.14), 13th in FIP (4.25) and 16th in fWAR (10.7).
Bradish, Rodriguez and Kremer will all return next season, primed and ready to pick up where they left off. They could also be joined by Tyler Wells, who’ll likely compete for a rotation spot next spring alongside young arms like DL Hall, Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott.
The one thing missing from this talented unit is a bonafide No. 1 starter. But to acquire one, the Orioles will either need to hand out a lucrative free-agent contract – a task owner Peter Angelos seems hesitant to act upon – or dip into their fully stocked prospect system.
One factor that bodes well for them in that regard is the franchise entered this past season with the second-lowest payroll ($66 million) in baseball. As currently constructed, only $13.15 million is on the books in guaranteed contracts for 2024.
But it gets even better. The New York Mets are covering $8 million of that figure as part of the James McCann trade. So that should leave the Orioles with ample financial flexibility to allow them to emerge as serious players in free agency – at least, if they choose.
They will have 16 arbitration cases to settle – tied for second-most in the majors behind the Yankees, with 17 – although six of those should be fairly inexpensive as they’ll be first-time eligible. Not to mention, Rutschman and Henderson are still pre-arbitration players.
In terms of their own free agents, only five individuals will be eligible to reach the open market: Gibson, Flaherty, Fujinami, Adam Frazier and Aaron Hicks.
Of that group, Gibson might be the only player that garners interest in a potential return for next season, as the 35-year-old led Baltimore’s pitching staff in innings pitched (192.0) and placed second in fWAR (2.6).
Elias and his staff must be aggressive in a thin free-agent starting pitching market that’ll be headlined by Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman (opt-out clause) and Japan’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Landing anyone below that tier would be considered a disappointment.
If that route proves ineffective, the Orioles would be well served to utilize its farm system to pry starter Dylan Cease – a free agent after 2025 – from the retooling Chicago White Sox.
The 27-year-old is coming off a down season, at least by his standards, but his high-strikeout profile affords him strong odds of bouncing back next season. On top of that, he’s only one season removed from finishing as the runner-up in the 2022 AL Cy Young race.
Since the Orioles will be without Félix Bautista, who’s one of baseball’s most dominating closers but will miss all next season due to Tommy John surgery, it’d also make sense to pursue a high-leverage reliever to pair with Yennier Cano.
Atop management’s wish list would likely be Josh Hader, as he’d further improve a bullpen that ranked second in fWAR (7.5) and sixth in K-BB rate difference (16.5%) in 2023. Others such as Craig Kimbrel, Jordan Hicks, Joe Jimenez, Keynan Middleton, Will Smith and Reynaldo Lopez could also be potential fits.
With plenty of resources at Baltimore’s disposal, Elias’ options should be virtually endless this winter. Well, maybe shy of signing Shohei Ohtani, that is. Still, there’s no reason why this club shouldn’t improve substantially in the coming months.
After having a taste of the playoffs this past season, now’s the time to push their chips into the middle of the table to ensure they’re popping champagne bottles next postseason rather than watching from afar.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: Maryland Gov Pics. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.