The Chicago Bears are a mess. We’re only three weeks into the 2023 NFL season but no other declarative feels nearly as accurate as the one above. We haven’t seen an early-season collapse of this proportion in some time. After losing to the Kansas City Chiefs 41-10 in Week 3, the Bears sit 0-3 with the worst points differential in the league.
So far, we’ve seen Justin Fields essentially throw his coaching staff under the bus, the defensive coordinator resign – though there’ll be no speculating as to why here – and we’ve seen a real lack of on field effort at times. Based on what we’ve seen on and off the field in 2023, the Bears are going to struggle to find a way out of their self-inflicted hole. Historically, teams don’t bounce back from 0-3 starts. Especially teams with as much chaos surrounding them as the Bears.
There’s a laundry list of reasons as to why the Bears are playing poorly. Fields was partly right when he said that coaching was an issue – although he did also walk back and clarify his comments – but it’s more than that. Fields has struggled to develop as a passer in his third season in the NFL and he’s 33rd out of 34 quarterbacks in EPA per play through three games.
There’s hope that Fields begins to settle into his role, but everything is working against him. Including himself. Nothing is guaranteed, except for death, taxes, and Patrick Mahomes. So Fields finding his stride one way or another isn’t a sure thing. But the lack of progress he’s shown through three games is concerning. The warts in his game that were so clear last season haven’t gone away.
Fields still shows little anticipation as a passer. More often than not, he needs to see an open receiver – wide open – before pulling the trigger. That level of indecisiveness, and lack of aggression, is costly. Fields throws into tight windows at one of the lowest rates in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats, at 9.1 percent. Some of that could be down to a lack of separation from his receivers, but Fields has shown that he needs to trust his eyes and attack space more.
The consequence of that is that Fields is far too prone to holding onto the ball, waiting for that open receiver to appear. Per PFF, Fields’ average time to throw is 2.80 seconds, the fifth-longest time in the NFL. He’s also holding onto the ball more often than any other quarterback in the NFL as 65.8 percent of his dropbacks end with him holding onto the ball for longer than 2.50 seconds. That’s no way to live. It signals a lack of structure in the offense.
That’s not all on Fields however. There’s been a lack of tangible effort from players in their route-running which has made things harder to dissect. Luke Getsy’s play calling has also left a lot to be desired, with multiple receivers running routes into the same pocket of space. An improvement in anticipation from Fields would be moot at times because his receivers struggle to get open.
However, those are the breaks. And the sum of those breaks has led to this. Fields is effectively playing for his future with the Chicago Bears. That seems a little dramatic after three weeks, but Fields is now in his third season in the NFL, and the Bears will have a decision to make in the offseason regarding his fifth-year option. If the front office isn’t impressed with his development, there’s every chance that they’ll decline the option and he’ll become a free agent at the end of the 2024 NFL campaign. It’s an alarmingly real possibility for a player the Bears drafted with the No. 11 pick in 2021. Right now, it doesn’t look like the Bears trust Fields to run this offense.
The 24 year old isn’t the only person who needs to be held accountable, nor is he the only person who will face repercussions if the Bears can’t recover their season. There’s every chance Matt Eberflus is coaching for his job as well as he’s won just 3 of his 20 games as the Bears head coach. Moreover, despite being a defensive coach by nature, the Bears are dead last in EPA per play on defense since 2022. There has to be accountability, even if the roster is lacking talent.
If Eberflus sticks around, there’s every chance he and the coaching staff could move on from Fields in the summer. A new coaching staff might also want to bring in their quarterback, instead of treating Fields like a reclamation project, especially if this team has the No. 1 pick and has the chance to draft Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Considering the Bears own their pick as well as the Panthers 1st round pick puts them in good stead to be in the hunt.
It feels like a lose-lose for Fields right now. But, there’s obviously a talented quarterback in there. He played with so much confidence as a passer in his rookie season and added the dynamic rushing threat last season. He’s the best athlete on any field he steps on, and his rushing prowess needs to be utilized more. That’s on the coaching staff.
But he has to improve. He can improve. The flashes were real, it’s just whether he and the Bears can weather the storm and get the best out of him. Time is running out to do it – otherwise, he might be starting the 2024 NFL season in a different jersey.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: Joon Han. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.