UFC Noche Analysis

UFC Noche: Grasso vs Shevchenko II – 9.16.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Noche: Grasso vs Shevchenko II. We celebrate Mexican Independence Day here in Las Vegas tonight. The card is headlined with a contentious rematch for the women’s flyweight championship. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 233-152-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 249-136-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 9-15-2023 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Josefine Knutsson -700 vs Marnic Mann +500

Anthony: The card today opens with a bout at strawweight between Josefine Knutsson and Marnic Mann. Knutsson emerged off Dana White’s Contender Series with a win over Isis Verbeek just one month ago. She now makes her debut in the UFC against another newcomer in Mann. Knutsson should be at a distinct advantage in this fight when it comes to power and technical striking. Mann is rather rudimentary in her standup skills while Knutsson is far more developed. She has a base in kickboxing and trains with a great team at Allstars in Sweden. Mann usually has the advantage in fights that hit the mat although that will not likely be the case for this matchup today. Knutsson should be able to defend takedowns and work to a dominant position if Mann does elect to shoot. She has a size advantage over Mann and again, striking that makes it very difficult to close the distance. I could see a finish materializing for Knutsson here but one way or another I expect her to earn the win. Josefine Knutsson by Decision
Nick: Josefine Knutsson will be making her UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win over Isis Verbeek. Knutsson wasn’t awarded a contract for that performance at the time, but she did win a convincing decision showing a well-rounded overall game. She is 6-0 professionally, and getting an opportunity here as a late notice replacement for Elise Reed. Knutsson is decent on the feet, but she takes a lot of damage in exchanges. She has a solid wrestling base, but she seems to grapple to maintain position over chasing submissions. Each of her last four wins have come via decision. Marnic Mann will also be making her UFC debut here, coming off a decision win over Amber Brown at LFA 157. Prior to that, Mann lost via head kick KO to Bruna Brasil when she fought on the Contender Series in 2022. She is 6-1 professionally, but she hasn’t found her success against a high level of competition. She’s getting a chance to fight in the UFC here after Iasmin Lucindo was forced to pull out due to injury. The line feels wide here, but Josefine Knutsson is certainly the rightful favorite. She should have technical advantages over Mann no matter where this fight goes. Josefine Knutsson by Round Three KO

Charlie Campbell -500 vs Alex Reyes +360

Anthony: Next is a fight at lightweight for Charlie Campbell and Alex Reyes. This is the first fight for Reyes in exactly six years, fighting on Mexican Independence Day in 2017 opposite Mike Perry. That loss was his only UFC appearance with the preceding resume for Reyes also showing nothing spectacular. A portion of his hiatus was due to a battle with spinal infection that saw Reyes sick for quite a few months. He will struggle to find his timing here today so long removed from action. Primarily a boxer, I see him ceding an advantage to Campbell in terms of both power and his speed. Campbell can effectively wrestle and mix his martial arts, making him a warranted favorite in this matchup. I think he picks apart Reyes on the feet, throwing heavy leg kicks and overwhelming volume. Campbell has lackluster striking defense but it is unlikely we see him get caught here. He seems like one of the safer bets on this card. Charlie Campbell by Round One KO
Nick: Charlie Campbell will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a KO win of Josh Streaker for CFFC. Campbell nearly finished Chris Duncan on Contender Series back in 2022, but Duncan survived and put Campbell away in one of the more surprising comebacks of the year. Campbell is a well-rounded fighter, but most of his success has come in striking exchanges. He trains out of an excellent gym via Longo and Weidman MMA, and many of his teammates are already on the roster. Alex Reyes has been out of action since September of 2017. He’s 13-3 professionally, but it is very difficult to know how he’ll look here given his extremely long layoff. At his best, Reyes is a well-rounded and potent finisher with nine wins coming via KO and four via Submission. Reyes has never won a fight via decision. At 36-years-old, it seems unlikely that he’s made major improvements in his time away from the cage. The line is wide here, but Campbell’s youth and athleticism should allow him to find a finish. Charlie Carmpbell by Round One KO

Tracy Cortez -120 vs Jasmine Jasudavicius +100

Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight matchup with Tracy Cortez set to face Jasmine Jasudavicius. This is a very compelling matchup between two solid grapplers in this division. Cortez is known for her excellent wrestling and a fan friendly style that yields fun fights. She is not afraid to exchange on the feet and while the boxing skills aren’t anything special, she is rather quick and crafty in standup exchanges. I have a feeling these two kickbox a bit here seeing as how both bear such solid grappling chops. Jasudavicius won’t connect quite as often as Cortez but I do expect her to find a bit more success at range given her reach advantage. I find Jasudavicius a bit more reliant on the takedown than Cortez when it comes to the winning condition for each. At pick em odds I will bet a small amount on Cortez but I am not at all confident in this fight. Cortez has a knack for fighting to close decisions although she seems to always get the judge’s nod. Tracy Cortez by Decision
Nick: Cortez comes into this fight on a ten fight win streak. She has notable UFC Wins over Stephanie Egger, Justine Kish and Melissa Gatto. She’s fairly well-rounded, but her greatest strength is certainly her grappling ability. She has a solid wrestling base, impressive ground-and-pound and she averages nearly three successful takedowns per fifteen minutes. She trains out of an excellent camp in Fight Ready where she frequently works with Henry Cejudo. Jasmine Jasudavicius is decent everywhere, but she’s found more success grappling than she has striking. Her takedown entries are somewhat predictable, but she’s surprisingly strong for her frame so she’s able to secure them even when her opponents see them coming. She is 9-2 professionally and 3-1 in the UFC, coming off an impressive win as a moderate underdog over a highly-touted prospect in Miranda Maverick. This is my least confident play on the card, but I’ll side with Cortez. I expect her grappling to be a step above Jasudavicius and her striking to show well enough to take this fight where she wants it to go. Tracy Cortez by Decision

Edgar Chairez -230 vs Daniel Lacerda +190

Anthony: This is a flyweight bout between Edgar Chairez and Daniel Lacerda. We should be in for a very exciting clash here as both men search for their first UFC victory. Lacerda has gone 0-4 thus far in the promotion despite having a lot of success in the early going of fights. An awful gas tank has cost Lacerda on numerous occasions given his frantic fighting style. He is a high volume striker training out of Chute Box Diego Lima. He utilizes muay thai and explosive kicks to pressure opponents and search for a finish as soon as the fight clock begins to wind. I like Lacerda’s aggression and ability to switch stances although his defensive awareness leaves quite a lot to be desired. Chairez is a very crisp boxer but also winless through two UFC bouts. We have largely seen Chairez lose in fights where he is out grappled although his jiu jitsu is not as weak as it may seem at face value. I find him the rightful favorite in this spot although I disagree with betting odds as wide as they are. Lacerda is difficult to trust given his kill or be killed style but I do find value in him as a sizable underdog. He will need a finish in the early going to have a chance at winning this bout but I do not find Chariez far superior to him upon diving deeper into the previous fights from each. Daniel Lacerda by Round One KO
Nick: Edgar Chairez is 10-5 professionally, coming off a hard fought loss to Tatsuro Taira in his UFC debut. In spite of the fact he lost that fight, Chairez’s stock rose dramatically as he took that fight on short notice against one of the division’s better and more dangerous prospects. His two most recent wins have come via submission. In spite of those results, Chairez is primarily a striker. He’s explosive out of breaks and does an excellent job throwing from unconventional angles. He’s an opportunistic offensive grappler with decent BJJ. He has solid cardio and he’s also very durable. Daniel Lacerda usually comes out extremely aggressive and he can be effective early, but he tends to give fights away after he wins the first round. He has decent power for a flyweight, but he telegraphs many of his strikes. Additionally, he doesn’t seem to have much in terms of defensive wrestling ability. He is coming off four consecutive losses under the UFC banner, and he’ll likely be cut from the roster if he can’t secure a win in this spot. Lacerda will be live for a quick upset finish here, but as long as Chairez survives that early storm he should pull away. This is a dangerous price, but I do see Chairez as the rightful favorite. Lacerda is dangerous, but his lack of cardio and durability have proven to be costly at this level. Edgar Chairez by Round Two KO

Roman Kopylov -325 vs Josh Fremd +260

Anthony: Next is a middleweight contest between Roman Kopylov and Josh Fremd. This should be a rather fun clash between two dynamic strikers. Kopylov is on a streak of three straight KOs with a nasty head kick win over Claudio Ribeiro his last time out. The stock has never been higher for this skilled kickboxer and master of sport in combat sambo. He has great precision and deceptive power in every strike thrown. Fremd is up against it with less polished technique standing, and certainly more lapses in defense. Kopylov defends 59 percent of opponent strike attempts and 90 percent of oncoming takedowns. Fremd will struggle to match Kopylov strike for strike and likely needs a lucky shot to land if he wants to win this bout today. Kopylov is a very crafty southpaw with much better timing than Fremd. Fremd will likely look to rely on his wrestling here although I doubt he finds success implementing it. I expect we will see him chinned at some point. Roman Kopylov by Round Two KO
Nick: Kopylov is a dangerous offensive kickboxer at range. He does a good job mixing heavy kicks into his combinations, but he is somewhat predictable as he seems to telegraph many of his shots. Kopylov looked great his last time out, where he secured a KO win over Claudio Ribeiro. He carries a lot of momentum into this fight coming off three straight wins via KO. His defensive grappling has been elite as he has a 90% takedown defense in the UFC. An impressive statistic, very likely to play a key part in how this fight plays out. Fremd was once a highly regarded prospect. He was favored heavily to capture the LFA Middleweight title over Gregory Rodrigues back in May of 2021, but he was caught clean with strikes and put out via devastating KO. He is 2-2 in the UFC, coming off a solid win via decision over Jamie Pickett. Fremd is very tall, but he doesn’t use his range that well. He’s a powerful striker, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. Most of his success at the UFC level will have to come on the mat. I expect Fremd to try to wrestle here, but even if he finds success in that area I don’t see him keeping Kopylov grounded for long. I expect this fight to mostly take place at striking range where Kopylov should have a dramatic advantage. Roman Kopylov by Round One KO

Lupita Godinez -425 vs Elise Reed +330

Anthony: The featured prelim is a showcase at women’s strawweight with Lupita Godinez set to face Elise Reed. Very few Mexican fighters have garnered the attention that Loopy has received the past two years. Since joining the UFC Godinez has been incredibly active, going 5-2 and proving to be a problem with her wrestling and high octane offense. Godinez lands north of four significant strikes per minute and usually throws about 80 shots each round. Reed is far less consistent on the feet and not the best when it comes to stuffing opponent takedowns. Reed relies on grit and forward pressure to win against UFC competition while Godinez has the skills to warrant a loftier price tag. She is the rightful favorite in this spot and a confident pick of mine to get this victory. I’d hope she elects to use her wrestling early here as Reed defends just half of the takedowns attempted against her. Lupita Godinez by Decision
Nick: Lupita Godinez is a well-rounded fighter, but most of her recent success has certainly come via her grappling. Since entering the UFC, Godinez has averaged more than 3.43 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Her striking continues to improve, but against Reed she’d be wise to continue to wrestle aggressively. Reed is a tough and gritty military vet who is more than willing to take shots in order to throw them. She has decent footwork and her boxing is somewhat refined. She doesn’t carry much power, but she throws compact strikes and does a good job mixing kicks into her combinations. As good as she is on the feet, Reeds defensive grappling is a major hole in her game. I expect Godinez to lean on her wrestling here as she wins a convincing decision. Lupita Godinez by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Fernando Padilla -250 vs Kyle Nelson +200

Anthony: Opening the main card is a featherweight bout between Fernando Padilla and Kyle Nelson. After a perfect UFC debut earlier this year, Padilla will look to build on his momentum and take out another veteran opponent opposite him. The kid is a very solid athlete with a lot of quality cage time already despite being merely 26. He has fought some solid competition with the likes of Dan Ige, Darrick Minner, Spike Carlyle and Julian Erosa. Nelson does not seem like a tough test for him but I am not going to be fading the Canadian here as I usually do. Nelson looked good in his past few performances and certainly seems the more built and powerful of this pair at featherweight. Padilla is going to be the more effective striker from range while Nelson could perhaps lean on his physicality to win moments of this fight in the clinch and dirty boxing. I figure Padilla to be too quick and aggressive for this version of Nelson but I am still not very confident in the pick. Certainly as a -250 I would not advise betting too heavily on Padilla in this spot. Fernando Padilla by Round Two KO
Nick: Fernando Padilla is coming off an impressive KO win over Julian Erosa in his UFC debut. He’s a powerful striker who works well out of breaks. His defense can be suspect at times, but he continues to show major technical improvements and while he prefers to stand-and-trade he’s also capable on the mat with eight of his fourteen wins coming via submission. Kyle Nelson is a powerful striker, but fairly unconventional in his approach. He has flashed decent power, but mostly against mediocre competition. He’s often there to be countered in exchanges due to his hyper-aggressive style. He usually comes out strong, but quickly starts to fade as his cardio and conditioning are more of a weakness than a strength.He’s coming off a solid win via decision over Blake Builder, where he did seem to improve his gas tank. If he can extend this fight he’ll be live for an upset, but it seems more than likely Padilla can find a finish here relatively early. This is a dangerous price, but I’m siding with the favorite. Fernando Padilla by Round Two KO

Daniel Zellhuber -280 vs Christos Giagos +220

Anthony: Next is a matchup at lightweight between Daniel Zellhuber and Christos Giagos. Zellhuber is the A-Side of this particular bout as he carries the flag for Mexico. This seems like a very solid prospect training locally with the team at Xtreme Couture. His muay thai and kickboxing skills are excellent and complemented by a great frame for lightweight. He is three inches taller than Giagos and nearly has six-inches on him in reach. Giagos has cashed for me as a dog before but I expect he struggles with this stylistic matchup. While the Spartan has heavy hands and some solid boxing I think Zellhuber will be the much more effective striker at range. The game plan for Giagos will be more takedown dependent and likely difficult to execute against an opponent of this size. Zellhuber has defended 91 percent of opponent takedowns through his previous three fights. Giagos is also a bit porous defensively and with Zellhuber attacking from both stances I am sure a finish may present itself. Otherwise I expect Zellhuber to pull away on the scorecards, overwhelming Giagos with much faster hands and the crisper kicks. Daniel Zellhuber by Decision
Nick: At his best, Daniel Zellhuber is a creative striker that uses his range well. He fights well behind his jab, he’s extremely quick getting in and out of exchanges, and his overall grappling ability seems to be quite advanced for a new-comer. He’s a highly regarded prospect, but his stock took a major hit in his UFC debut where he lost a convincing decision to Trey Ogden. He bounced back nicely his last time out with a win over Lando Vannata, but as talented as he is there is no denying his skills are still somewhat rough around the edges. Christos Giagos fights at a torrid pace, especially early in fights. He has solid takedown entries, a decent wrestling base and he usually does a good job avoiding damage on the feet as he absorbs less than three significant strikes per minute. The one major knock on him is his cardio, as he doesn’t seem to be nearly as effective in the third or even second rounds of his fights. This is likely the result of his kill-or-be-killed style, which has done him more harm than good at the UFC level. Giagos is coming off an impressive KO win of Ricky Glenn, but it’s tough to know how Giagos would have looked if that fight was extended past the first round. The line is certainly wide here as Giagos is the more tested of the two. The underdog will be very dangerous early, but I expect Zellhuber’s durability will be enough for him to extend this one and pull away late. Daniel Zellhuber by Round Three KO

Raul Rosas Jr -800 vs Terrence Mitchell +550

Anthony: The featured bout is a fight at bantamweight between Raul Rosas Jr and Terrence Mitchell. We should have quite the scene here in Las Vegas as the 18-year-old Rosas makes his return to the octagon. Rosas lost for the first time as a pro earlier this summer but appears primed to bounce back against a lesser opponent tonight. MItchell is a product of the Alaskan regional circuit which tends to yield a rather mediocre crop. Losses to Cameron Saaiman and Kai Kara-France indicate to me that he is not quite UFC caliber. Mitchell was only signed to the roster on short notice to face Saaiman in July. He will be in some serious trouble here if looking to engage with Rosas in any capacity on the mat. While one would think Rosas takes a more measured approach here off a loss, Mitchell is unlikely to show any resistance once Rosas does make it to his back. I am expecting a finish very early on in this fight with a crowd full of Mexicans supporting this young star. Rosas has a long way to go in terms of his professional development, but certainly I expect to see him win against lower level competition such as this. Raul Rosas Jr by Round One Submission
Nick: Rauld Rosas Jr. is the youngest fighter to ever compete in the UFC. He is 7-1 professionally, coming off the first loss of his career to a tough out in Christian Rodriguez. Rosas’ greatest skill is certainly his advanced BJJ, as five of his seven professional wins have come via submission. He did a poor job pacing himself in his last fight, and after Rodriguez managed to stay out of danger early he faded quickly and was then dominated for the bulk of the three rounds. Terrence Mitchell is coming off an ugly loss in his UFC debut, in which he was dominated by Cameron Saaiman. Fourteen of his fifteen professional wins have come via finish, but very few of those wins were over opponents with winning records. Mitchell can be dangerous on the feet, but he’s going to be significantly outclassed by Rosas Jr. on the mat. It feels like the UFC is teeing this one up for Rosas Jr. to get back into the win column. I expect he finds a quick takedown and submission. Raul Rosas Jr by Round One Submission

Jack Della Maddalena -145 vs Kevin Holland +120

Anthony: The co-main event is a fun scrap at welterweight between Kevin Holland and Jack Della Maddalena. This could very well be Fight of the Night if these two credentialed strikers elect to stand and bang. Della Maddalena is coming of a split decision win this July against newcomer Bassil Hafez. Many are pumping the brakes on Maddalena after that performance but I still feel he is a legitimate prospect at 170 pounds. Hafez was quickly on the pressure in that fight and constantly looking to smoother Maddalena on the mat and against the cage. Holland could attempt to grapple in this instance but if these two are instead going to mix it up on the feet I like Maddalena’s handiwork much more. Holland has an unorthodox style blending kung fu with a long karate stance. He utilizes his length well at times but also crashes into the pocket often looking to connect with bigger shots. Della Maddalena has much more pure boxing, switching stances with ease and defending at a much higher rate than Holland. Only 31 percent of opponent strikes land on this very elusive Aussie. I imagine the better combinations and counters come from Maddalena in this affair. He has the opportunity to move to 6-0 in the promotion and I feel Holland is just a bit too reckless to bet on opposite him. Jack Della Maddalena by Round Two KO
Nick: Jack Della Maddalena has shown highly technical striking ability in his short UFC tenure. He has excellent head movement and footwork, surprising power, and while his grappling hasn’t been tested extensively at this level, it seems he’s competent on the mat as well. He is coming off five straight wins under the UFC banner, but he looked less dominant than expected his last time out against Bassil Hafez. Holland has developed a reputation as one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC. He talks constantly, both insulting and congratulating his opponents for the entire time he’s in the cage. He’s a rangy and creative striker with surprising power for his frame, but he has a clear hole in his game via his takedown defense. While he struggles at times against wrestlers, he has dangerous BJJ as a black belt under Travis Lutter. His grappling has looked a lot better overall since he made the move down to welterweight. Della Maddalena does an excellent job mixing in body shots to set up head strikes and his pressure and volume is difficult for most of his opponents to endure. That being said, I see Holland representing a major step up in competition for him here and a tough stylistic match-up. Holland will be the much more dangerous grappler, the more experienced fighter, and he will have a 5-inch reach advantage. This is easily one of the most exciting fights on the card and I expect it will be competitive, but Holland has more paths to victory. I like the value on him here as an underdog. Kevin Holland by Round Two Submission

Valentina Shevchenko -170 vs Alexa Grasso +145

Anthony: The main event is a rematch for the women’s strawweight championship with Alexa Grasso looking to defend against Valentina Shevchenko. There have been many shocking upsets in 2023 but Shevchenk’s defeat in March certainly ranks near the top. Grasso won as a +575 underdog, submitting Shevchenko for the very first time. While the bout was always competitive, it did appear Shevchenko had the edge entering round number four. She was much more effective than Grasso on the mat and certainly a threat striking the current champion. Grasso’s great boxing gave her an edge in total strikes landed while Valentina connected with more significant strikes. A lapse in Fight IQ is what really doomed Shevchenko, exposing her back for the taking whilst throwing a spinning kick. I do not foresee Shevchenko taking risks like that as she competes with a bit more focus today. She seems remotivated by the task at hand and eager to get another shot against Grasso. I find this to be a rather close matchup although there is clear value on Shevchenko at this price. Considering I bet her last time at -900, paying -170 seems more than fair the second time around. She has only lost to one other woman since 2010 and that came against Amanda Nunes. Shevchenko is an all-time great in my eyes and I expect her to make the adjustments needed to win here today. And New. Valentina Shevchenko by Decision
Nick: Prior to her capturing the UFC Flyweight Title, Grasso was coming off impressive wins over Viviane Araujo, Joanne Wood, Ji Yeon Kim and Maycee Barber. She’s been showing dramatic improvements everytime we see her fight, culminating in her most recent win, to become champion, over Valentina Shevchenko. She works well behind her jab, her footwork has come a long way since her UFC debut and she’s now considered one of the more talented pure strikers in the division. Her BJJ offensively has become a solid weapon for her as well, which is evident by her recent submission victory. The challenger, Valentina Shevchenko, is one of the best female strikers to ever step in a cage. She’s a highly technical kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks and enough speed to land a variety of combinations against anyone in this division. This fight represents her with an opportunity to avenge her first loss to 2017, against an opponent in Grasso who she was finding success against before she threw a spinning kick, missed, and gave up her back in the fourth round. Shevchenko is the much better grappler in this match-up, and she should be able to take Grasso down continuously with relative ease. I expect she’ll spend less time in close striking exchanges in this rematch, cementing her legacy and recapturing her title. I could see this fight going either way, but I will back Shevchenko under the assumption that she’ll be hungry and more intelligent in her approach. I expect her to spin less and wrestle more. And New. Valentina Shevchenko by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com