UFC Vegas 78 Analysis

UFC Vegas 78: Luque vs Dos Anjos – 8.12.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 78: Luque vs Dos Anjos. A fun month of UFC action continues this afternoon as we are treated to this solid card from The Apex in Las Vegas. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 186-138-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 201-123-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 8-11-2023 at 9pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Luana Santos -150 vs Juliana Miller +125

Anthony: Opening the card today is a women’s flyweight bout between Luana Santos and Juliana Miller. This is the UFC debut for Santos who enters the promotion at 5-1 as a professional. She draws a rather favorable matchup for her first octagon tilt as she faces The Ultimate Fighter winner Juliana Miller. While I had previously thought very highly of Miller she is coming off a terrible showing against Veronica Hardy this spring. Her jiu jitsu is very dangerous, but I do not like Miller fighting from her guard in today’s bout. Santos is very skilled in terms of her offensive grappling and with a judo background I see her edging out Miller in most exchanges on the mat. Miller often hunts for takedowns and submission attempts, making this such a tough stylistic draw. While Miller has the length and striking volume to beat Santos kickboxing, I find her at a disadvantage when the two clash here today. Not only is Santos younger than Miller but also seemingly stronger. She is the rightful favorite in this spot. Luana Santos by Decision
Nick: Luana Santos will be making her UFC debut here, coming off a submission win over Bartira Rodrigues. She is only 23-years old, but 5-1 professionally. She’s recently been fighting for a respectable promotion via LFA and while her skills are still far from refined, she is much more polished as a fighter than one might expect. Her strikes are far from powerful, but she continues to show improvements in that facet of her game. She’s primarily a grappler with two of her last three wins coming via submission. Juliana Miller is an aggressive BJJ player and very tall and lengthy for the division. She’s extremely raw and lacks technical ability on the feet, but she’s more than willing to eat strikes to throw them. While her striking is far from refined, she almost always puts out consistent volume. Her cardio has been solid and her BJJ is surprisingly advanced for a 27-year-old. Miller was exposed in her UFC debut, a loss to Veronica Hardy. She was outclassed everywhere in that match-up. She showed solid cardio and durability but there really wasn’t much to positively gleam from that performance. This is a low level match-up and a tough fight to call, but I find myself backing Santos. The grappling of Miller needs to be respected, but Santos should be able to mostly keep this one standing – she seems to be the better striker. Luana Santos by Decision

Da’Mon Blackshear -275 vs Jose Johnson +220

Anthony: Next is a matchup at bantamweight with Da’Mon Blackshear facing off with Jose Johnson. Originally, Blackshear had been slated to face Brady Heistand here but due to his withdrawal we see Johnson take the short notice call. Johnson actually has more professional experience than Blackshear despite being one year younger. He is a solid fighter with active hands and very good muay thai for a bantamweight. His shots carry some power but not quite the string of Blackshear. I consider Blackshear a step ahead of Johnson in terms of striking and quite clearly at an advantage if this fight hits the mat. Blackshear has scored a takedown in every UFC appearance thus far and one would think he can quite easily control Johnson if these two do engage on the mat today. The ability for Blackshear to switch stances makes his entries very difficult to read and his takedowns very tough to stuff. I expect him to lead the dance here against Johnson and cruise quite comfortably to a victory. He is very well rounded in all areas of the fight. Da’Mon Blackshear by Round Two Submission
Nick: Da’Mon Blackshear is a former Cage Fury FC Bantamweight Champion. He’s 1-1-1 in the UFC, most recently coming off an impressive win via ground-and-pound KO over Luan Lacerda. He is fairly well-rounded, but primarily a grappler. He’s dangerous on the mat offensively with a BJJ black belt, and eight of his thirteen professional wins have come via submission. He does a decent job striking at range, but his ability to string together combinations is fairly limited. Jose Johnson will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win by decision over Jack Cartwright. While he was only moderately impressive in that fight, Dana White liked his story and reluctantly awarded him a contract. Johnson is 28-years-old and 15-7 professionally. While he’s making his debut somewhat late in his career, he has faced decent competition fighting for LFA and Fury FC. He’s relatively well-rounded but he really doesn’t have any singular standout skill offensively. Blackshear is far from perfect, but I do expect he can outclass Johnson no matter where this one goes. Simply, he’s more technically advanced than Johnson is everywhere. Da’Mon Blackshear by Decision

Jaqueline Amorim -250 vs Montserrat Ruiz +200

Anthony: This is a compelling scrap at women’s strawweight with Jaqueline Amorim set to face Monsterrat Ruiz. Many were high on Amorim during her debut in the UFC although she did cede victory to Sam Hughes in that affair. The product of American Top Team has very good offensive grappling and striking that is improving steadily from fight to fight. Ruiz is a much smaller and compact strawweight, giving Amorim the green light to lead in kickboxing exchanges. Her jab will be more effective than that of Ruiz and I do not anticipate the Mexican fighter landing any fight altering shots. Ruiz often relies on her own offensive wrestlin to secure position and win fights, a very tough gameplan to execute against a credentialed opponent like this. At these odds I would not recommend betting Amorim but she should have success executing a game plan here today. I do not think Ruiz has many fights ahead of her inside of the UFC. Jaqueline Amorim by Decision
Nick: Jaqueline Amorim is 6-1 professionally, coming off a loss in her UFC debut to Sam Hughes. She nearly finished Hughes early in that fight, but she depleted her gas tank chasing that finish and was outclassed significantly in the second and third round. The former LFA Strawweight Champion, Amorim is fairly well-rounded, but her greatest strength is certainly her offensive grappling ability. Five of her six professional wins have come via submission. She’s excellent on the mat, but as we saw in her last fight it is vital that she paces herself and carries her cardio into later rounds. Ruiz does a good job pushing forward and putting pressure on her opponents. She’s willing to eat shots to throw them, but she prefers to grapple in most matchups. She’s a black belt in BJJ via 10th Planet, with creative and sneaky offensive grappling ability. Ruiz has found a lot of success overpowering and muscling takedowns against smaller and inferior opponents. She has been out of action since July of 2021, most recently losing via brutal KO to an elite opponent in Amanda Lemos. Each of these fighters has evident flaws, but I see Amorim as the rightful favorite. Ruiz’s aggressive style is likely going to lead her into a dangerous position on the mat and an early finish. Jaqueline Amorim by Round One Submission

Martin Buday -210 vs Josh Parisian +170

Anthony: This is a matchup at heavyweight between Josh Parisian and Martin Buday. Parisian has alternated wins and losses since joining the UFC and while he has shown solid pace and output for a heavyweight, he really is nothing special in my eyes. Parisian’s best work comes forcing opponents into bad positions and landing more offense than he absorbs, likely a tough task facing Buday today. The Russian is a phenom in terms of his cage grappling and overwhelming control inside of the octagon. Buday has won eleven fights in a row and continues to be a profitable bet for me each time he competes. I like that Buday lands constant offense in the clinch, whether it be to the opponent’s body head or legs. He does very well softening up his foes and I expect to see Parisian bullied along the octagon side here. Both guys did weigh in at the heavyweight limit but I expect Buday to push 290 pounds on fight night as is often the case. Given the reach advantage Parisian does possess, expect a lot of clinch positions broken by him and initiated once more by the oncoming Buday. He is a fighter I have bet already and recommend trusting at the current odds. Martin Buday by Decision
Nick: Martin Buday is primarily a wrestler with excellent ground and pound ability, but he is also totally content to play out fights at striking range. He has solid footwork and decent power for his frame, but he is sometimes slow and plodding and it seems he’s often too content to wait for fights to come to him. He is 3-0 in the UFC, all via decision. He’s 12-1 professionally, but he’s another fighter that has yet to really be tested extensively against top level competition. Parisian throws a lot of spinning attacks, which is a strange thing to see from a heavyweight. These moves can be effective, but he also compromises his gas tank if he can’t put his opponents out early. He is 15-6 professionally and 2-3 in the UFC, but his UFC wins came over opponents that have since been cut from the promotion. This is another low level match-up and thus, a low confidence play. I’m backing Buday as the more powerful and well-rounded fighter. Martin Buday by Decision

Francis Marshall -175 vs Isaac Dulgarian +140

Anthony: One of the best fights on today’s card is this featherweight scrap between Isaac Dulgarian and Francis Marshall. This is the UFC debut for Dulgarian who enters 5-0 after turning pro in 2021. Dulgarian is still rather green as a martial artist, but he has proven knowledgeable of most positions. He trains with a great team at factoryX Muay Thai and has some great power for a 145er. Dulgarian will challenge Marshall today in terms of striking volume. Marshall does have the tools to stand and kickbox a guy like Dulgarian, although more than likely we see Marshall shooting for takedowns today. His wrestling is more effective than that of Dulgarian and while we have seen some good jiu jitsu from the newcomer, I have a hard time imagining him fighting out of these clinch positions. Marshall is coming off a very bad loss to William Gomis making me hesitant to bet him as a sizable favorite here. I do expect to see him get the job done but this is a fight I will not be betting and instead just watching for enjoyment as a fan. It should be an exciting back and forth but I expect Marshall to rise up and finish stronger in the latter half of these rounds. Francis Marshall by Decision
Nick: Marshall is 24-years old and 7-1 professionally. He’s well-rounded as an effective offensive striker, but four of his seven professional wins have actually come via rear naked choke. He’s coming off his first career loss via decision to William Gomis. He was competitive in that fight, but it took him a while to get going and he had a lot of trouble closing distance against the lengthy Gomis. Isaac Dulgarian will make his UFC debut in this spot. He is 5-0 professionally, with all of those wins coming via first round finish in FAC. As impressive as that is, only one of those wins came against an opponent with a winning record. He’s a powerful striker with dangerous BJJ, but it’s tough to gauge how good he is as he really hasn’t faced anyone close to UFC level. Additionally, his cardio is a major question here as he’s never been out of the first round. This is a tough fight to call, but I slightly prefer Marshall in this match-up. The line feels too wide, but I see Marshall enduring Dulgarian’s wild attack early and wearing him down soon afterwards. Francis Marshall by Round Two KO

Terrance McKinney -275 vs Mike Breeden +215

Anthony: Next is a matchup at lightweight between Terrance McKinney and Mike Breeden. McKinney stepped in on short notice here today after Breeden had initially been slated to face Groovy Lando Vannata. Props to McKinney who less than one month ago got finished by Nazim Sadykhov. He is rushing back into action today but Breeden is not a bad draw stylistically and I see McKinney likely overwhelming him once this fight begins. McKinney is notorious for only fighting hard six minutes prior to gassing and falling apart. Breeden may be able to weather the early storm and finish T-Wrecks but I imagine McKinney lands some crucial shots in the first moments of this scrap. He has the advantage wrestling against the likes of Breeden and certainly more single shot power on the feet. He enters on a two fight losing skid but so does Breeden, a man still winless inside of the UFC. While I find these odds inflated drastically, McKinney is the clear pick here in what should be a good scrap. Breeden is unlikely to endure the offense dished out by McKinney as soon as the first horn sounds. Terrance McKinney by Round One KO
Nick: McKinney is known as a knockout artist, but he has underrated wrestling ability as well. He is 13-6 professionally and all of those wins have come inside the distance. He is 3-3 in the UFC, most recently coming off an ugly loss via submission to Nazim Sadykhov. He looked excellent early in that fight, but his cardio quickly depleted and Sadykhov was able to take over and dominate after weathering that early storm. In most of McKinney’s fights he pushes a ridiculous pace. He overwhelms most of his opponents, but when he can’t he’s usually dominated as his cardio fails. Mike Breeden broke into the UFC taking a short notice fight with Alexander Hernandez. He was quickly KO’d in that spot, but Hernandez is fairly high-level so it’s tough to really gauge his abilities off that performance alone. He more recently fell via decision to Natan Levy. A fight in which he was mostly dominated on the mat, but certainly a better showing than his debut. Breeden is a powerful striker, but he struggles to close distance and his defensive grappling leaves a lot to be desired. If Breeden can survive the first round, I expect he takes over and secures the upset. That being said, it seems more likely than not that McKinney can take him out early here. Terrance McKinney by Round One KO

Marcus McGhee -370 vs J.P. Buys +275

Anthony: The featured prelim is a bantamweight scrap between Marcus McGhee and J.P. Buys. I was very impressed by McGhee in his octagon debut, finishing Journey Newson by choke after a very disciplined striking performance. McGhee fights a bit like teammate Sean O’Malley, pairing a kick heavy approach with great feints and quick entries. I consider this a dream matchup for McGhee as he faces a wrestler with little to no technical boxing skill. Buys has been knocked down eight times total in his three most recent fights. This will surely be his last UFC appearance if unable to come away with the victory here. He could perhaps outwrestle McGhee and win a decision on the scorecards but I find him properly lined as the underdog here. McGhee is very crafty on the mat and certainly not somebody Buys can recklessly shoot upon. McGhee has the clear edge kickboxing today and I think that will be evident as these two begin to exchange leather early. Buys is never afraid to get into a firefight if needed, although his chin does not eat shots well at all. Marcus McGhee by Round Two KO
Nick: Marcus McGhee is coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut, via submission over Journey Newsome. He looked excellent in that fight on short notice showing an aggressive style and a well-rounded overall game. He’s getting a late start to his professional career as he’s 33-years old and only 7-1 professionally, but he fights out of a solid camp via MMA Lab and he seems to be entering his athletic prime. J.P. Buys is likely fighting for his job here, having lost all three of his fights under the UFC banner. He’s fairly well-rounded, but his best weapon is certainly his grappling ability. He has a solid wrestling base, but he’s far from refined in terms of his striking on the feet. His durability is questionable, which is likely the reason he’ll be moving up a weight class here to fight at bantamweight. McGhee throws heavy hooks. He kicks well to set up combinations, and he’s likely going to be the stronger fighter here. Buys is a quality wrestler, but I expect he struggles to keep McGhee down. Marcus McGhee by Round Three KO

Marcus McGhee TDD against Newson. pic.twitter.com/EPbY6v8IZg
— Feño (Ninja) (@fenoxsky) August 10, 2023

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Josh Fremd -350 vs Jamie Pickett +260

Anthony: The main card opens with the middleweight fight of Josh Fremd and Jamie Pickett. Fremd did miss weight on Friday afternoon, coming in three pounds heavy for this contest. I do not think Fremd is in the best of shape for this matchup but nonetheless I see him beating a rather lackluster opponent like Pickett. Fremd has great size and offensive grappling. He is landing more than one takedown per fight and really starting to showcase his skills on the mat as of his most recent showing. Matchups are becoming more favorable for Fremd and I see Pickett having a clear deficiency in terms of his grappling acumen. We of course saw him stopped quickly by Bo Nickal but Pickett has also succumb to ground attacks prior, facing the likes of Kyke Daukaus and one Charles Byrd. Fremd can use his length to keep Pickett at distance while striking, perhaps exchanging a bit on the feet. However, Fremd should eventually get to Pickett’s legs with ease and prove to be the large favorite he’s lined as tonight. The weight miss does give me a bit of pause but Fremd seems like a safe bet for this weekend. Josh Fremd by Round Two Submission
Nick: Fremd was once a highly regarded prospect. He was favored heavily to capture the LFA Middleweight title over Gregory Rodrigues back in May of 2021, but he was caught clean with strikes and put out via devastating KO. He is 1-2 in the UFC, coming off a solid win via Submission over a raw opponent in Sedriques Dumas. Fremd is very tall, but he doesn’t use his range that well. He’s a powerful striker, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. Most of his success at the UFC level will have to come on the mat, and knowing that it certainly seems he’s in a favorable stylistic match-up here against Pickett. Pickett carries serious power on the feet, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. He absorbs more than five strikes per minute and he’s starting to develop a reputation as a slow starter. He’s coming off three consecutive losses under the UFC banner, and there’s a good chance he’ll be cut from the roster if he doesn’t find a win in this spot. Pickett was most recently dominated by top-prospect Bo Nickal. He was quickly taken down in that fight, and after only minor resistance Nickal was able to find a quick submission. Fremd missed weight for this fight, but that could prove to be an advantage as he leans on his considerable grappling advantage. I expect he can ground Pickett and then grind him out for a finish. Josh Fremd by Round Two Submission

Tafon Nchukwi -145 vs A.J. Dobson +115

Anthony: Next is a bout at middleweight between Tafon Nchukwi and A.J. Dobson. The transition from light heavyweight to 185 pounds has not been too smooth for Nchukwi who weighed in three pounds heavy on Friday. I respect his decision to move down in class after back to back knockout losses. Nchukwi has always had issues stinging combinations together and keeping sustained pressure on his opponents. I really think he is underdeveloped as a pro, just like his opponent here in Dobson. The matchmaking is solid, pitting two low level fighters against one another. I give the slight edge to Dobson today given his general workrate and ability to laterally move. He is much lighter on his feet than Nchukwi and I do not see Da Don connecting with any huge power shots today. Over the course of fifteen minutes I see Dobson putting in much better work. A.J. Dobson by Decision
Nick: Nchukwi is 6-3 professionally, with four of those wins coming by knockout. In spite of his narrow MMA record, he’s already a very developed striker as a former Muay Thai world champion. He has a decent wrestling base and his cardio seems to be improving. However, he is coming off back-to-back losses via KO and his durability seems to be trending in the wrong direction. Dobson is somewhat of a traditional boxer in that he stands fairly straight up in exchanges. He has true KO power, but he’s fairly predictable in his approach as he telegraphs most of his strikes. Additionally, we’ve yet to see him find success against the top level of competition. He is coming off back-to-back losses under the UFC banner, and he’s likely fighting for his job in this spot. Nchukwi missed weight for this fight, and he’s moving down a weight class here. Dobson will need to stay defensively sound, but I expect he can stay a step ahead in this one. A.J. Dobson by Decision

Iasmin Lucindo -200 vs Polyana Viana +155

Anthony: Next is a women’s strawweight contest between Polyana Viana and Iasmin Lucindo. At just 21 years of age, the future is very bright for Lucindo who has already fought twice inside of the UFC. Her latest performance against Brogan Walker at flyweight gives me confidence in Lucindo matching up with most of this division’s top twenty. She packs incredible punch for a woman of her size and while Viana is longer with more effective weapons from range, I see Lucindo largely leading the dance here while this fight is standing. Viana does her best work against opponents she can outclass grappling and I do not believe Lucindo will fall victim to her traps. Viana has beaten plenty of this division’s newcomers and contenders but nobody she has bested really is considered a high quality win. It is an awful stylistic matchup for Viana and I do not see her realizing any success. Iasmin Lucindo by Decision
Nick: Viana has outstanding BJJ, but she’s had trouble closing distance and getting her opponents to the mat. She strikes aggressively and she puts out a lot of volume, but she’s far from technical on the feet. She’s coming off a KO win over Jinh Yu Frey, but it’s rare she doesn’t try to lean on her aggressive offensive grappling. Lucindo is a well-rounded prospect with a high-volume striking style, solid cardio, and excellent durability. Lucindo can be a dangerous submission grappler if this fight hits the mat, but she doesn’t really have the wrestling ability to take the fight there consistently. It seems much more likely that she’ll do what she can to keep this fight standing, where she’ll have a dramatic technical advantage over her opponent in this match-up. Viana is a dangerous submission grappler, but I expect Lucindo can mostly keep this one standing. Iasmin Lucindo by Decision

Khalil Rountree -185 vs Chris Daukaus +150

Anthony: The featured bout comes today at light heavyweights with Chris Daukaus set to face Khalil Rountree. I had been excited about Daukaus when making his UFC debut, offering good grappling and hand speed for a heavyweight. Now my expectations are much more tapered as he makes his divisional debut fresh off three consecutive losses by knockout. Daukaus is big and quite a bit taller than Rountree, I just don’t expect much to translate for Daukaus in terms of power. Rountree is a highly skilled striker using great muay thai and powerful kicks to hurt his opponents. With seven professional wins coming by way of knockout, I feel Rountree is in a prime spot today to continue building on his win streak. Daukaus’ best attribute is his speed and aggression which could cost him here against a fantastic counter striker. I expect to see Rountee get the victory here after hurting Daukaus badly. Khalil Rountree by Round Two KO
Nick: Chris Daukaus will be moving down a weight class here after a mediocre run at heavyweight. Daukaus has fast hands. He’s a decent technical boxer with ten of his eleven professional wins coming via KO. Prior to his entering the UFC he was touted for his BJJ, but it seems rare he tries to lean on that part of his game. He’s moving down a weight class here after struggling to win at heavyweight, so it’ll be interesting to see if that proves to help or hurt his abilities. Rountree is a talented Muay-Thai striker with extremely powerful kicks. He works excellent in the clinch, but he’s sometimes overly conservative as he waits for fights to come to him. Rountree is a frustrating fighter to back as he’s usually very volatile. He can look like a complete world beater on any given night, but on occasion he seems like he has zero interest in fighting. If Rountree is in peak form here, he should secure a convincing win. I’m going to back him as a favorite, but I recommend anyone backing him proceeds with caution given his general inconsistency. Khalil Rountree by Round One KO

Hakeem Dawodu -235 vs Cub Swanson +185

Anthony: The co-main event is a great fight at featherweight between Cub Swanson and Hakeem Dawodu. I am expecting a great battle here between two men content to stand and trade. Dawodu is a very technically sound striker with good kicks and tactical entries from range. He has spent nearly a decade facing top flight opponents and while Swanson is certainly a legendary fighter, Dawodu probably does not consider him a step up in competition. Swanson is nearing 40 at this point and while he is still quick and viable on the offensive side of things, durability and defense has been a major red flag as of late. I was not keen on his decision to test the 135 pound waters and as a result of that weight move Swanson got KOd inside of the first round. Swanson is unlikely to take three rounds of punishment from Dawodu who lands north of 5.3 significant strikes each minute. Dawodu is not really known as a power puncher but I can see him stunning Swanson on a few occasions today. I would consider Swanson a live underdog at this number but Dawodu has proven capable of eating shots and continuing to march forward. It will be very challenging for Swanson to win minutes and rounds. Hakeem Dawodu by Decision
Nick: We have what should be a fun match-up here between two fighters who prefer to stand and trade. The biggest knock on Hakeem Dawodu is that as talented as he is, he waits for fights to come to him. Additionally, he often fails to put out significant volume. He does a good job mixing up his strikes, but he’s primarily a counter striker. In this particular match-up, that could play to his advantage. He is 13-3-1 professionally, coming off a decision loss to Julian Erosa. He’s far past his prime, but Cub Swanson is a legend with wins over the likes of Dustin Poirier, Charles Oliveira, and Chad Mendes. He’s one of the more accomplished featherweights in the history of the UFC. Swanson has advanced technical ability both striking and in grappling exchanges. He has advanced BJJ, but he’s most advanced to stand and trade as his punching power is his most notable attribute. At 39-years-old, Swanson’s durability is certainly of some concern here, as he was KO’d in each of his last two losses. The line feels too wide, but I do expect Dawodu can execute a kick heavy gameplan to break Swanson down at range. Hakeem Dawodu by Round Two KO

Rafael dos Anjos -120 vs Vincente Luque +100

Anthony: The main event is a banger at welterweight between Vincente Luque and Rafael dos Anjos. Both of these men put on exciting fights regularly, showing out for Brazil and always entertaining the fans. The former champion dos Anjos is ranked at lightweight and moving up to 170 pounds for what is likely the last chapter of his career. There is still a lot of fight left in RDA at 38 but the cut to 155 is far too strenuous on the man’s diet and gas tank. Dos Anjos can fight his style today, mixing the martial arts and overwhelming Luque with his output and sophisticated offensive attack. I consider him far more technically skilled than Luque while certainly less explosive or intimidating. The boxing for RDA is crisp and deliberate while Luque is more of a sporadic power puncher. His hands are going to be faster than dos Anjos’ in close and I imagine Luque lands the bigger bombs over the course of a five round bout. This fight likely gets decided in the realm of grappling where RDA should have the perceived edge. His wrestling is great and on average he lands more than two takedowns per fight. However, Luque is a very slick submission grappler with eight professional wins coming by way of choke. He defends takedowns at a solid clip and while Luque could get outwrestled here, I like his chances of wrapping the neck of a shooting dos Anjos. Luque may be able to hurt dos Anjos on the feet and I expect his size to play a key factor in any exchanges grappling. Being shorter and lighter than Luque makes this a tough challenge for dos Anjos to overcome. I will side with the underdog here today in hopes of him finding an early stoppage victory. This fight likely goes to dos Anjos if there is a round four or round five. Vincente Luque by Round Three Submission
Nick: Dos Anjos is a well-rounded fighter. He’s solid on the feet, but extremely talented on the mat as an advanced BJJ black belt. He does an excellent job controlling position against inferior grapplers and his striking is more technically advanced than the majority of his opponents. He’s a former champion, with notable wins over Paul Felder, Nate Diaz, Benson Henderson, and most recently, Brian Barberena. He’s old for the division at 38-years-old, but he’s still a very durable fighter with excellent cardio and a very high fight IQ. Luque is an exciting fighter who throws a lot of volume and pushes a serious pace. He’s a powerful striker with true KO power, but he sometimes over-exerts himself and leaves himself open for counters. He’s coming off a brutal KO loss to Geoff Neal, and following that fight he had been diagnosed with a career-threatening “brain bleed”. He’s known for his excellent durability, willingness to eat shots in exchanges, but he’s going to need to learn to fight more conservatively if he’s going to extend his career. Dos Anjos should have a cardio and grappling advantage here, but he’ll only be able to lean on that if he can protect himself early. Dos Anjos has faced more technical strikers than Luque before, but Luque’s power and pressure makes him a unique and dangerous test. Luque seems far more likely to push the pace in this one. Dos Anjos should have a cardio and grappling advantage here, but he’ll only be able to lean on that if he can protect himself on the feet. I expect Luque to fight a bit more conservatively than usual, which should play to dos Anjos’ advantage. Rafael dos Anjos by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com