The dynasty is officially over. Wrap up the preseason, it’s time to move one. The Washington Commanders have finally ended the 24 game pre-season win streak with a 29-28 victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night, giving them their first loss since 2015. For context, in 2015, Tom Brady was being suspended for deflate-gate, Joe Flacco was being talked about as an elite quarterback and (cheeseburger) Eddie Lacy was in serious consideration as a top pick in fantasy drafts.
Their last loss came at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons in a game where the Ravens were quarterbacked by someone named Bryn Renner and Matt Schaub. Although Josh Johnson is certainly a more recognizable name (maybe due to the fact he has the record for most teams played on in NFL history), he was no match for the offense of Sam Howell and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy.
But that game wasn’t the only notable news to come out of the past week in the fantasy world. We’re back again to get you caught up on anything that you may have missed, and of course, talk even more about the Jonathan Taylor saga going on in Indianapolis, despite how exhausting it is.
Let’s start there.
Is Jonathan Taylor Winning the Standoff?
Despite Jim Irsay’s comments after his now infamous meeting with Taylor on the team bus (to recap – no one will care when he dies, Taylor doesn’t really matter in the big scheme of things, Irsay will never trade him etc…), Taylor and his agent have now been given permission to seek a trade, as per Adam Schefter.
The Colts are reportedly looking for a 1st round pick (or multiple later picks) as compensation. While the running back market has obviously cooled over the past few seasons, Christian McCaffrey netted the Panthers 4 draft picks last October, including a 2nd rounder, which seems like a reasonable ceiling for the Colts. However they don’t have much leverage, so I doubt they will be able to attain that much compensation via trade unless they hold their ground and a Super Bowl contender has a major injury at running back.
Fantasy owners don’t need to concern themselves with the details of the trade negotiations – if you’ve already invested in Taylor, you just need to cross every finger and toe and hope the deal gets done as soon as possible. It’s clear that Taylor has no interest in playing for the Colts this season – he was excused from attending training camp last week due to “personal reasons” – so it seems that the team is finally realizing that trying to force him to play for them just isn’t feasible at this point. There’s no way that Taylor is suiting up for the Colts in week 1, so the only way to recoup value from drafting him is if he’s moved. But be aware that he’ll likely be a slow starter as he learns a new offense and gets himself back into football shape. His ADP has been plummeting, and I’ve seen him drop as far as the 4th-5th round in some drafts, so there’s definitely some extremely high upside if you can snag him late right before he gets traded and takes over the RB1 role for a new team.
There are a few teams that are interesting options for Taylor at this point. Top of the list has to be the Miami Dolphins. Just a few short years ago, the AFC East was the Patriots and everyone else. Now it’s become one of the most competitive divisions in football. Miami was heavily linked to Dalvin Cook, and even explored trading for the veteran back before he was released by the Minnesota Vikings. They held off, and after coming away with Devon Achane in the draft, seemed content with Jeff Wilson Jr., Raheem Mostert and Achane to rotate in and out of their backfield.
Achane is now week to week with a shoulder injury that he suffered in the preseason. He’s been receiving rave reviews all throughout training camp, but there was a reason that many teams stayed away from the explosive back. His diminutive size is a serious concern at the NFL level. Wilson (27, and is already missing practice with injury) and Mostert (31) are both skilled backs, but each come with massive injury histories. Over their combined 13 years in the NFL, the duo has played 16 games in a season just 3 times. Adding Taylor would give the Dolphins security at the running back position and take pressure off of Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback as he tries to stay healthy himself.
Another team to consider is the very club that Indianapolis is having joint practices with and playing in their final exhibition game, the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles traded for D’Andre Swift and signed Rashaad Penny this past offseason. But Penny has been mostly working behind Kenneth Gainwell thus far in camp, and Swift is more of an outside the tackles pass catching back. For a team that’s looking to make it back to the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season, locking up a consistent 1,200 yard rusher (when healthy) could be a part of the Eagles offense that they’d be interested in. The two teams have plenty of personnel links and have made deals in the past, so while this is all pure speculation on my part, it’s not outside the realm of possibilities.
This storyline has to end soon, right?
Running Backs are Making Noise
While ADP’s on your favorite drafting sites tend to take time to adjust to the trends, there are definitely some performances that are causing some running backs to jump in the rankings that you should keep an eye on.
I’ve written enough about the miraculous return of Javonte Williams, but now that he’s played in a preseason game, he’s worth bringing up again. He finished his first game since tearing his ACL with 3 carries for 12 yards and a team high 4 catches for 18 yards over 2 full series. Seeing Williams on the field confirms to me that he’ll be ready to go for week 1. Utilizing him as a pass catcher in his first appearance only confirms my belief that he’s an absolute must have in every draft you take part in. He’s currently going as the RB24 – which is absolutely absurd. Right now taking him in the 4th round is a “reach.” He will drastically outperform that ADP.
Khalil Herbert is another name to watch out for – his current ADP has him as the RB36, and the 93rd player off the board. He seems to have the hold on the starting job for the Bears, and while Justin Fields is likely to end the season as the team’s rushing leader, Herbert has some real value as an RB2 or a flex. The team seems content to bring rookie Roschon Johnson along slowly, and D’Onta Foreman has yet to prove that he’s a real threat to Herbert’s workload. Herbert already knows the offense, has a nice rapport with Fields, and was a highly touted prospect coming out of college. If you’re going zero RB strategy, or even just want to shore up the position late, Herbert in the 8th round might be a game breaker for you.
There’s a possibility that we discounted former 3rd round pick Dameon Pierce too early. He had a breakout start to his rookie season before being put on IR, and after Houston added Devin Singletary in free agency, Pierce’s ADP reasonably dropped dramatically. He is currently the RB18, but if preseason trends continue, we’re going to regret drafting him that late. Pierce was barely used as a pass catcher last season, but this week he ran a route on 100% of Stroud’s dropbacks while playing with the 1st team offense. Granted he wasn’t targeted and his rushing numbers weren’t spectacular, but the fact that the new coaching staff seems to already trust him in passing situations only amplifies his breakout potential.
Jaylen Warren is mainly going undrafted right now, but he may be the next big thing at running back. Najee Harris is a plodder who is being drafted as the RB 10 mainly due to his presumed usage as an every down back. But anyone who’s watched the Steelers knows that Warren is the more explosive runner of the 2. Warren only played 2 snaps in the Steelers last preseason matchup, but turned one of them into a 62 yard touchdown. The Steelers invested heavily in their offensive line this past offseason, and if anything were to happen to Harris – or if he continues to run at a 3.9 yard per carry clip – Warren could be the explosive option to help open up the offense. He’s a must have handcuff if you take Harris early.
Is Jaylen Warren the most underrated RB in the NFL? pic.twitter.com/ZZZnGa6q6w
— 🚀 (@jelstroyt) August 23, 2023
The Importance of an Offensive Line
The game is won in the trenches, and as a fantasy owner, you need to be aware of what’s happening along the offensive line for players that you are drafting.
There’s no better example than Tua Tagovailoa and his connection to Terron Armstead. Armstead, thankfully for Dolphins fans, seemed to avoid major injury after leaving last Thursday’s practice with a lower right leg injury. The team is targeting Sept 10th, Miami’s season opener, as his return date, and the numbers show just how imperative he is to Tagovailoa’s success in the passing game.
The 32 year old has dealt with injuries throughout his entire NFL career, which probably removes him from conversations about the top offensive lineman in the league. But when he’s on the field he’s an absolute game changer. In 2022, the Dolphins went 1-3 in the games Armstead missed. With Armstead, the team had a 67.2 pass blocking grade and a lowly 22.9% pressure percentage allowed – without him, the pass blocking grade plummeted down to 42.7 and the pressure percentage more than doubled to 46.1%. If you have any investment in the Dolphins offense, you have to factor in the massive drop off the team takes when Armstead inevitably misses time. Adjust your roster accordingly.
Another offensive line to look out for is over in Jacksonville. Starting left tackle Cam Robinson won’t be available for the first 4 games of the season thanks to a suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy, and the Jags line is already struggling. Knowing that he’ll be away from the club entirely as soon as the season starts, the Jags are giving him as many snaps as they can in preseason, and the 27 year old hasn’t performed particularly well. Walker Little, who’s been playing at guard, seems to have caught the eye of head coach Doug Pederson.
“He’s been a guy that you say, okay, he can play tackle, he can play guard, we can move him around a little bit. Obviously, we feel like his best position is tackle,” head coach Doug Pederson told reporters when asked about Little. “But again, I think the versatility that he has shown us is very valuable.”
Considering the Jaguars signed Robinson to a massive 3 year extension, they’re hoping he returns to form once he rejoins the team in week 5. But from a fantasy perspective, that shaky offensive line is a cause for concern for those wanting to get off to a quick start in their leagues. Travis Etienne is already looking like he will cede snaps to Tank Bigsby as the season progresses, so if he’s also going to be dealing with early offensive line struggles, that needs to be factored in when you are debating drafting him at his current ADP.
Rookies Ready to Go
Nothing like preseason hype to get you excited about the new crop of rookies entering the NFL. Bijan Robinson is the early favorite to win rookie of the year, and his performance in preseason makes his early ADP of 9th overall look completely justified. But he’s not the only rookie to make a note of entering your draft. There are plenty of first year players that seem primed to bust out this season.
Zay Flowers might become the Ravens WR1 sooner rather than later. Granted, Mark Andrews will be their leading receiver, but Flowers has shone during camp and is getting early comparisons to Antonio Brown. While we may not remember him fondly, Brown was a top tier wide receiver in his prime, so that’s not a comparison that should be taken lightly.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been all over the field and is exclusively working with the 1st team offense in Detroit. Jordan Addison seems more than ready to take the looks left by Adam Thielen and work in conjunction with Justin Jefferson. Anthony Richardson, and to a lesser extent, C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young have value now that they’ve all secured the starting job for their respective clubs. Even at tight end, a position famous for first year flame outs, have some players that might buck the trend.
Dalton Kincaid in Buffalo is primarily lining up as a receiver and can provide Josh Allen with a big bodied middle of the field weapon that makes the offense even more dynamic. Sam Laporta in Detroit has next to no competition for snaps, and there are 2 rookie tight ends in Green Bay who will be lining up for the Packers all season. Add in the current RB2s like Zach Charbonnet, Tyjae Spears and Tank Bigsby who should all see their roles increase as the season progresses, and there’s a lot to like coming out of this rookie crop – much of which can be had very late in the draft.
Adding some volatility to your roster doesn’t always work out, but without breakout seasons, it’s extremely hard to win a fantasy league. Might as well bet on one or two rookies to help you get there this year.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.