UFC Vegas 77 Analysis

UFC Vegas 77: Holm vs Bueno Silva – 7.15.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 77: Holm vs Bueno Silva. After a thrilling International Fight Week, we continue with action in Las Vegas for another fight night event. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 151-122-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 170-103-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 7-14-2023 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Ailin Perez -240 vs Ashlee Evans-Smith +190

Anthony: The card today opens at women’s bantamweight with a bout between Ailin Perez and Ashlee Evans-Smith. This is a low-level skill matchup but still an exciting fight, with Perez often pressuring forward and making her bouts gritty. Evans-Smith has not fought since 2020. She is winless in her past two fights and a mere 6-5 overall as a professional. I am not expecting a much improved Evans-Smith today. She is not nearly as quick as Perez or efficient fighting on the ground. I expect Perez to keep out of the clinch today and instead look to vary her attacks inside and outside of the pocket. At these odds I am not interested in betting on Perez but I certainly do see her winning. She’s the much younger and more active athlete. Ailin Perez by Decision
Nick: Ashlee Evans-Smith has been out of action since November of 2011. She is 6-5 professionally. Coming off three consecutive losses it seems she’s one more away from being cut from the promotion. She’s decent everywhere, but not as athletic as the majority of her division. She has solid fundamentals both grappling and on the feet, but she’s far from explosive and while durable – she’s not wearing damage as well as she was earlier in her career. Perez is coming off a loss in her UFC debut, but it came against a tough out in an experienced Stephanie Egger. Perez has decent offensive grappling ability, but her takedown entries are far from technical. Her striking is mostly telegraphed and slow, and her decision making when faced with adversity seems questionable at best. In spite of these flaws, she is more than willing to engage in a firefight. She throws hard on the feet, pushes a decent pace, and she has shown solid durability. Evans-Smith should have technical advantages here, but she’s far past her prime. I expect the youth and athleticism of Perez to be enough to secure a win here. Ailin Perez by Decision

Alexander Munoz -200 vs Carl Deaton +160

Anthony: Next is a men’s lightweight matchup between Carl Deaton and Alex Munoz. Deaton lasted a bit longer than expected in his February debut, succumbing to a submission in the second round. However, Joe Solecki is certainly a skilled opponent and tough draw when making one’s first walk to the octagon. Facing the 6-2 Munoz is certainly more reasonable for The Anishinaabe Kid. The product of Team Alpha Male has lost back-to-back decisions after an undefeated start to his career. I like the offensive wrestling from Munoz and certainly give him the edge grappling here today. He is a bit faster than Deaton standing and certainly the more potent finisher of these two. I think Munoz has an excellent chance of catching Deaton in an early choke series. He has confidence in his grappling and certainly can pull guillotine if needed to initiate exchanges on the mat. Deaton likely makes this a competitive bout if he can extend it into rounds two and three. I just expect to see him overwhelmed early by an opponent with his back against the wall. Alex Munoz by Round One Submission
Nick: Deaton has a lot of quality regional experience, but it is a bit telling it has taken him this long to get the call up to a big promotion. Deaton is decent everywhere, but his toughness and grit are what have allowed him to find success professionally. He has a knack for weaponizing his cardio and outlasting his opponents, but he has no real singular stand out skill when you watch him on film. Munoz is a decent grappler, but he doesn’t always do much once he gets guys to the mat. He has decent striking ability, but he mostly throws short combos and there isn’t really much power behind his punches. Munoz’s clearest path to victory here is to ground Deaton and control position for however long as he can. Deaton is durable, but his weaknesses in defensive grappling are likely to spell his downfall in this match-up. Munoz’s wrestling advantage here should allow him to be more active on the ground than he usually is. He’s the rightful favorite here with a very clear path to victory. Alex Munoz by Decision

Azat Maksum -450 vs Tyson Nam +310

Anthony: The next bout comes at flyweight with Tyson Nam facing UFC newcomer Azat Maksum. Maksum sits as a very large favorite, and rightfully so. The undefeated fighter has faced some very solid competition thus far in his career. He has headlined three straight cards for the Octagon promotion in his native Kazakhstan. Maksum also won bouts for Brave CF. His sambo and offensive grappling make him quite the force against light weight competition. He appears much stronger than Nam and certainly has the edge grappling against him. Traditionally Nam’s takedown defense has been okay but Bruno Silva was able to submit Nam in his only showing thus far in 2023. Nam is a live underdog given his tremendous one-punch power, but aside from that hail mary I expect to see him outclassed today. Maksum’s constant grappling offense and forward pressure should cause Nam to react, limiting his offensive output. I think he wins this fight via early submission or ground and pound. Azat Maksum by Round Two Submission
Nick: Azat Maksum will be making his UFC debut in this match-up. He is 16-0 professionally, fighting primarily for respectable regional promotions via Octagon and Brave CF. He’s 28-years old and his skills are developed both on the mat and on the feet. He has five wins via KO and six via submission. Tyson Nam is primarily a striker. He has above average power for this division and he does a good job setting up his shots with feints and leg kicks. He’s a decent wrestler as well, but he’s certainly most content to stand and trade. Each of Nam’s last three wins have come via KO. As is often the case, Nam will be live for an upset via KO here. That being said, as long as Maskum leans on his grappling and stays defensively sound on the feet, he should stay a step ahead here. The line feels too wide, but Maksum is the pick. Azat Maksum by Round Three Submission

Evan Elder -310 vs Genaro Valdez +240

Anthony: Next is a lightweight contest between Evan Elder and Genaro Valdez. These odds feel a bit wacky despite Valdez dropping two fights in a row. He is a talented athlete with quick hands and rather good striking offense, but defensively he leaves quite a lot to be desired. His grappling is solid too, training with a great team at Entram Gym. Elder just seems a tad more proficient on the mat. His offensive grappling is certainly more dangerous than that of Valdez who is more reliant on wrestling and top pressure when fights do get to the ground. Elder is more creative when it comes to initiating exchanges and certainly the tougher man to single leg. I see him giving problems to Valdez who does not do nearly as well absorbing shots on his guard. Never before has Elder been finished prior to the cut stoppage his last time out. I am picking him to get the win here today, eventually catching and finishing Valdez. Evan Elder by Round Two KO
Nick: Elder took his debut fight on very short notice, fighting up a weight class as a means to gain entry to the promotion. He was man-handled for three rounds in that spot, but he showed solid durability and a willingness to go out on his shield. He’s most recently coming off a loss to Nazim Sadykhov via Doctor Stoppage TKO. While that fight represents a loss on his record, he was mostly winning for three rounds and likely would have been awarded the decision over Sadykhov if the doctor let him continue. Elder is decent everywhere as an intelligent striker and an explosive athlete. He’s still raw in his abilities as he’s only 26 years-old. All ten of Valdez’s wins have come via finish; three via submission and ten via KO. The issue with Valdez’s success is that it almost exclusively came against an extremely low level of competition. He is 0-2 in the UFC, and likely fighting to keep his roster spot here against a tough out in Elder. Valdez is decent on the feet with surprising power for his frame. That being said, he struggles defensively both in his striking and defending takedowns. Valdez can be dangerous in striking exchanges, but it seems likely Elder can control where this one goes as he stays a step ahead. Valdez lacks defense and Elder is capable of securing a finish via strikes or on the mat. Evan Elder by Round Two KO

Melquizael Costa -240 vs Austin Lingo +185

Anthony: This should be a great fight at 145 pounds with Austin Lingo facing Melquizael Costa. It is a great clash of styles with the forward pressure Lingo facing a quicker and more versatile opponent like Costa. We saw some glimpses of Costa’s upside in a short notice debut against Thiago Moises. Even against top fifteen competition he has held his own and shown grappling chops that certainly are at the UFC level. I give him the edge here today against Lingo if he elects to bring this fight to the mat. Lingo has never before been submitted but he certainly is more comfortable fighting bouts on his feet and slinging big overhand punches. Certainly Costa can run into trouble against a stronger opponent like this, but I see a very competitive fifteen minutes materializing. Costa’s volume and ability to win minutes will likely result in his having his hand raised. I don’t recommend betting on Costa at worse than -200, but I certainly advise a play on him rather than taking a shot on the underdog. Melquizael Costa by Decision
Nick: Melquizael Costa is an aggressive striker that fights at a very fast pace, but he leaves a lot of openings defensively. His takedown defense is suspect at best, but he can be dangerous in scrambles and he generally does a decent job working his way back to his feet once he’s grounded. He’s coming off a loss in his UFC debut, but it came on short notice to a top-20 lightweight in Thiago Moises. Austin Lingo hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition, but he carries solid power in his strikes and his grappling continues to show improvements training under an excellent coach in Sayif Saud at Fortis MMA. Lingo throws strong combinations in the pocket and if he can find an opening to counter, he is live here for an upset KO. Costa’s kill-or-be-killed style makes this a volatile match-up, but I do expect he’ll dictate the pace and he should have a considerable speed advantage. The line is wide, but I see Costa as the rightful favorite. Melquizael Costa by Round Two KO

Viktoriya Dudakova -200 vs Istela Nunes +160

Anthony: Istela Nunes will fight Viktoriya Dudakova next at women’s strawweight. It is the UFC debut for Dudakova who emerges from the Russia regional scene. She is a talented grappler with a wealth of amateur experience and several bouts against high level foes. Her appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series cemented this spot on the roster, looking excellent for a full three rounds. While I think Dudakova still has some growing to do, Nunes will likely pose her little issues today. The Brazilian is just 6-4 as a professional and thus far 0-3 inside the UFC. Her defense standing and grappling seems lackluster and at 30 years old I do not see her making vast improvements between fights. It is safe to say Nunes will not compete in the promotion again if she does fail to get her hand raised today. I think Dudakova is still a bit unproven, but still a rather safe pick to get the victory in this one. Viktoriya Dudakova by Decision
Nick: Isleta Nunes is primarily a striker. Offensively she’s effective both at range and in the clinch. She works well behind her jab, but her cardio seems to be more of a weakness than a strength and her grappling defense is suspect at best. Nunes is coming off three consecutive losses under the UFC banner, and she’ll likely be cut from the promotion if she can’t pull off the upset here. Viktoriya Dudakova will be making her UFC debut, coming off a Contender Series win over a tough out in Maria Silva. Dudakova is 6-0 professionally and only 24-years-old. She’s decent on the feet, but most comfortable in grappling exchanges as four of her six professional wins have come via submission. The line feels wide here as Dudakova is still somewhat untested and developing as a prospect. I expect Nunes will be competitive early, but once Dudakova gets her grappling going I expect she can pull away. Viktoriya Dudakova by Round Two Submission

Melsik Baghdasaryan -160 vs Tucker Lutz +130

Anthony: The featured prelim comes at featherweight with Melsik Baghdasaryan facing Tucker Lutz. It is a great stylistic clash with a talented grappler like Lutz facing this exciting kickboxer. With Lutz averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fight, he will certainly test the 75 percent takedown defense of Baghdasaryan. Lutz pairs grappling with rather tight boxing, but not nearly the technical striking skill possessed by his opponent. Baghdasaryan is much quicker than Lutz and far more diverse in his attacks. Certainly I feel he will be a few steps ahead of Lutz, especially for the portions of this bout contested at kickboxing range. Baghdasaryan is coming off a loss his last time out, but he was miles ahead of his opponent before the tide turned. Culibao was able to quickly take the back and choke Baghdasaryan without even securing a takedown. I believe that he bounces back in a big way here, fighting smart and picking apart Lutz. On a rather thin card betting wise, he is one of my favorite plays. Melsik Baghdasaryan by Decision
Nick: Lutz has a powerful striking base and throws a lot of shots off his lead leg. He does a good job stringing together combinations, but he also seems to take excessive damage against other powerful strikers. He’s a decent grappler offensively, but it seems he is most content to stand and trade on the feet. Baghdasaryan is an extremely talented kickboxer. He throws impressive combinations, mixing in kicks well, and five of his last seven professional wins have come via knockout. Baghdasaryan is going to have an advantage when this fight is standing, which is where I expect it will mostly take place. If Lutz can ground Baghdasaryan consistently he’ll be live for the upset on the mat, but that seems relatively unlikely. Melsik Baghdasaryan by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Nazim Sadykhov -150 vs Terrance McKinney +120

Anthony: The main card opens with a lightweight showdown between Nazim Sadykhov and Terrance McKinney. I found this to be one of the toughest fights to call as McKinney will close a small plus money underdog. I view Sadykhov the steadier and more well-rounded fighter, while McKinney is an explosive finisher. Never before has McKinney needed the judge’s scorecards. He is quick to action, pouring on a ferocious offensive onslaught and occasionally mixing in some wrestling. His ground and pound is very solid and it often appears McKinney is putting everything into every punch that he throws. I think that a stronger and more dense Sadykhov can wear on McKinney and beat him late, but as always I worry about T-Wrecks early. The plus number is tempting me, so I’ll play props involving an early McKinney finish. This should be a rather one-sided fight regardless of who is to win. It almost certainly will be finished inside of the distance. Terrance McKinney by Round One KO
Nick: McKinney is known as a knockout artist, but he has underrated wrestling ability as well. He is 13-5 professionally and all of those wins have come inside the distance. He is 3-2 in the UFC, most recently coming off an ugly KO loss to Ismael Bonfim. In most of McKinney’s fights he pushes a ridiculous pace. He overwhelms most of his opponents, but those that have weathered that early storm against him have found continued success. Sadykhov is a dynamic striker on the feet. He has a solid wrestling base and a good understanding of BJJ when his fights hit the mat. Training at an early age, Sadykhov is one of these next generation fighters that has solid ability no matter where his fights go. He trains out of an excellent gym via Longo MMA and he’s the first fighter on the UFC roster to represent Azerbaijan. He’s coming off a solid KO win over Evan Elder, but he struggled to get going early in that match-up which could spell trouble for him in this one. As good as Sadykhov has looked, he really hasn’t found success against anyone near McKinney’s level. If he can survive early I do expect he’ll have a cardio advantage, but that is certainly a tall order against such an explosive and potent finisher. Terrance McKinney by Round One KO

Norma Dumont -145 vs Chelsea Chandler +115

Anthony: Next is a bout at women’s featherweight between Norma Dumont and Chelsea Chandler. Dumont has had a lot of success in this division and very rarely will I fade her as the betting favorite. Her style of fighting in the clinch, throwing high volume and mixing in some grappling really pays dividends against lower level competition. Finally we are seeing Dumont face a proficient grappler in this matchup with Chandler. The product of Cesar Gracie Jiu Jitsu certainly has the skills to compete with Dumont on the mat. Her grappling is extremely slick and she has the size to compete against Dumont when most competition rarely can. With things getting feisty between these two backstage yesterday, I am going to chase the plus money and back Chandler as a dog. Her boxing has improved training with Nick and Nat Diaz. I see her eventually getting Dumont to the mat and accruing some impressive time in top control. Certainly both girls feel live to find a finish inside of the three round distance. Chelsea Chandler by Decision
Nick: Chandler is just 5-1 professionally. Her record suggests she’s inexperienced, but she shows a well rounded game when you watch her on film. She has powerful boxing, dangerous BJJ, and her cardio seems solid as well. She is coming off a dominant win over Julija Stoliarenko in her UFC debut, which came via first round ground and pound. Dumont has decent striking ability, but most of her recent success has come via her positional grappling ability. She can score takedowns against the cage or in open space, and she does a good job staying heavy when she’s on top of her opponent. Dumont has excellent low kicks, which she should be able to utilize to keep Chandler from overwhelming her on the feet here. Chandler is tough and dangerous, but Dumont is far more experienced and should have technical advantages both on the feet and in terms of wrestling. Chandler’s BJJ makes her a live underdog, but I don’t see Dumont presenting her any openings to get it going. Norma Dumont by Decision

Jun Yong Park -160 vs Albert Duraev +130

Anthony: This is a volatile fight at middleweight between Albert Duraev and Jun Yong Park. Since making his UFC debut, Park is a very impressive 6-1. He pairs solid standup and a granite chin with very clean offensive grappling. Park has the strength to finish a high rate of takedowns and rarely is afraid to shoot on his opponents legs. Duraev is a heavy 185er with a great base grappling, likely proving to counter the offense of Park quite well. I imagine these two may frustrate one another in clinch exchanges, yielding a low volume fight. Neither has the best cardio. If they instead elect to stand and trade I do lightly lean the way of Duraev. He seems to roll with power shots a bit better than Park, who rarely throws more than his jab and straight. This is one of the night’s toughest picks but I will chase the value here and back Duraev. I consider him having faced the tougher competition of the two thus far. Albert Duraev by Decision
Nick: Park is somewhat slow and plodding on the feet, but he does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents and forcing them to fight off their back foot. He is primarily a striker, but he’s well-rounded as he averages more than two successful takedowns per fifteen minutes. He’s mostly known for his durability, but he does sometimes leave himself open to be countered in exchanges. He has won six of his last seven fights under the UFC banner, and he’ll be looking to build on that momentum here against another tough opponent in Duraev. Albert Duraev’s striking is fairly rudimentary, but he does a good job staying out of danger and using his own strikes to create entries for takedowns. He’s an excellent wrestler. who does a good job maintaining top control. He is 2-1 in the UFC, most recently coming off a narrow decision win over Chidi Njokuani. If Duraev can get his wrestling going he’ll have a decent chance to pull off the upset, but I expect Park’s durability and cardio will frustrate him in the later rounds. Park should lead on volume on the feet here and while Duraev may be the better wrestler, it isn’t by much. Jun Yong Park by Decision

Francisco Prado -110 vs Ottman Azaitar -110

Anthony: The featured bout comes at lightweight between Ottman Azaitar and Francisco Prado. Expect fireworks here as these two high action fighters get it on. Prado is 11-1 as a professional with all wins coming by way of finish. Azaitar’s resume is very similar, finishing opponents in all but one of his 13 professional wins. His chin was cracked last year by Matt Frevola, tarnishing Azaitar’s perfect record at Madison Square Garden. I like that he has taken time off since that starching and now feel confident in him once again as he faces a defensively vulnerable foe. As talented and quick as Prado may be, he is still extremely green at just 21 years of age. I see Azaitar walking him down without fear and likely landing clean before this fight gets started. Prado is certainly a live dog in the latter half of this bout but I expect Azaitar to at least score one knockdown early. His power has always translated well at 155 pounds. He seems like a very solid play at even odds. Ottman Azaitar by Round Two KO
Nick: All of Prado’s wins have come via finish. He is 11-1 professionally, coming off a debut loss to Jamie Mullarkey in a fight he took on short notice. Prado fights aggressively, especially early in fights. He’s more than content to exchange in a ‘fire fight’, but his defense can be compromised as a result. He has decent BJJ offensively, but his takedown entries are fairly predictable and it’s become increasingly rare we see him lean on his grappling. Ottman Azaitar enters this match-up at 13-1, coming off a brutal KO loss to a tough out in Matt Frevola. Nine of his thirteen professional wins have come via KO. He is very dangerous on the feet with true one-shot knockout power, but he seems fairly one dimensional and his cardio seems to deplete quickly if he can finish his fights early. It’s across a small sample size, but Azatair has a 100% takedown defense in the UFC. I fully expect this fight to take place on the feet, where I expect he will have a slight striking advantage. This is a low confidence play as this is likely a war until someone is KO’d, but I’ll side with Azatair. Ottman Azaitar by Round One KO

Jack Della Maddalena -600 vs Bassil Hafez +425

Anthony: The co-main event is a welterweight matchup between Bassil Hafez and Jack Della Maddalena. I was disappointed that Della Maddalena had a fight fall through last weekend but thankfully he is still competing here in Vegas, drawing into another promotional newcomer. Hafez struggled to make weight but did show up to compete today. It will be a very tough task to beat Della Maddalena who has now strung together an impressive four wins by round one knockout. His boxing is exceptional. Della Maddalena has an extremely active lead hand, jabbing his opponent constantly and setting up meaningful combos. I do not think there is anybody quite as slick as him at the moment, ripping shots to the body and head with legitimate fight-ending power. He will be far quicker than Hafez in a standup fight and certainly the more technical striker. Hafez seems to be a fair athlete, winning fights in Cage Fury and certainly displaying solid chops on the mat. He will likely attempt to ground Della Maddalena to avoid a beating. With 71 percent of opponents’ takedowns defended, I have confidence in Della Maddalena keeping this fight standing. Expect an early finish after quite a boxing clinic by the Aussie. Jack Della Maddalena by Round One KO
Nick: Jack Della Maddalena has shown highly technical striking ability in his short UFC tenure. He has excellent head movement and footwork, surprising power, and while his grappling hasn’t been tested extensively at this level, it seems he’s competent on the mat as well. He is coming off four straight KO wins including his most recent over Randy Brown. Della Maddalena does an excellent job mixing in body shots to set up head strikes and his pressure and volume is difficult for most of his opponents to endure. Bassil Hafez will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on less than a weeks’ notice. Hafez is 8-3-1 professionally, training with Elevation Fight Team. He’s relatively well-rounded, but this represents a dramatic step up in competition. Della Maddalena should be able to force Hafez backwards here with volume and pressure until he can eventually break him for another KO. The line has gotten out of hand, but Della Maddelena is very clearly the pick. Jack Della Maddelena by Round One KO

Holly Holm -180 vs Mayra Bueno Silva +140

Anthony: The main event comes between ranked bantamweights Holly Holm and Mayra Bueno Silva. With the 135 pound belt recently vacated by Amanda Nunes, both athletes find themselves in great position to earn a championship fight. Bueno Silva is 3-0 since moving up in weight. Not only is the Brazilian extremely tough, but also proving to be better than I had initially thought on the mat. Her grappling is much more effective at 135 pounds with now two consecutive wins coming by way of submission. I think a bigger and more experienced Holm should do better than most at defending Bueno Silva’s takedowns. It will be difficult for Sheetara to burn cardio chasing shots when a five round fight is not something she is accustomed to. Holm is the division’s former champion and much more comfortable in a five round atmosphere. Her kickboxing and overall volume likely earns Holm a win here today. Holm has only been submitted once before professionally and I see that as the only path to victory for Bueno Silva. She is drawing a tough stylistic challenge and lined appropriately as a moderate underdog. Holly Holm by Decision
Nick: Holm has fought the best-of-the-best at women’s bantamweight. She’s the more experienced of the two fighters here and when it comes to striking, she really is the class of this division. She’s an outstanding boxer with stellar footwork and head movement. She throws powerful combinations and has true KO power in all of her limbs. She is certainly past her prime as she is currently 41-years old, but she is still one of the tougher outs in the division. Bueno Silva is a brawler. She can be dangerous on the feet, but she also carries sneaky offensive grappling ability as a BJJ black belt. She doesn’t really have much wrestling ability, so it’s rare we see her shoot for takedowns, but whenever she’s grounded she’s very capable of finishing her opponent. She has strung together three consecutive wins, and she finds herself in ‘by far’ the biggest fight of her career here. Holm has a solid 78% takedown defense and her grappling continues to show considerable improvements. She’s still a force in this division in spite of the fact she’s in the twilight of her career. On the feet, Holm should have considerable technical advantages here. On the mat, this fight is a lot closer than Bueno Silva expects. Holm should be the better fighter no matter where this one goes. Holly Holm by Decision

Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com