UFC London: Aspinall vs. Tybura Analysis

UFC London: Aspinall vs Tybura – 7.22.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC London: Aspinall vs Tybura. Today The O2 Arena plays host to a great slate of fights, headlined by the return of one Tom Aspinall. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 159-127-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 180-106-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 7-14-2023 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 12:00pm EST

Jafel Filho -110 vs Daniel Barez -110

Anthony: The card today begins with a bout at flyweight between Jafel Filho and Daniel Barez. Filho really proved how skilled he was fighting the undefeated Muhammad Mokaev his last time out. That bout saw Filho execute great jiu jitsu transitions and even put Mokaev in a horrible kneebar that many others would succumb to. He is getting an encore here at the O2 and drawing a much easier opponent in comparison. Barez is a talented athlete on a tidy winning streak of late. He is very active and more versatile than Filho when comparing the two on the feet. However, I see Barez having a lot of trouble if and when this fight hits the mat. A talented black belt like Filho will surely look to nullify the offense of Barez and keep him restrained. He trains with a great team at Nova União and seems to have a much more quality resume than his opposition. I will be betting Filho here at near even odds to start off the afternoon. It should be a competitive fight but I would not blink had Filho been lined closer to -150 or worse. Jafel Filho by Round Two Submission
Nick: We have a really fun and competitive fight at flyweight here to open up this card. Filho is coming off a loss in his UFC debut, but his stock went up following that result. Filho took on Muhammad Mokaev, and nearly finished his opponent in a very close fight as a massive underdog against an extremely well-regarded prospect. Filho showed effective striking, and excellent wrestling and BJJ in that match-up. He nearly finished Mokaev via kneebar, before he was eventually reversed and submitted late in the third round. Filho is 14-3 professionally, with eight of those wins coming via submission and five via KO. Daniel Barez will be making his UFC debut here, coming off of four consecutive wins via first round finish. He is 16-5 professionally, with his last loss coming in the Contender Series to a tough out in Carlos Hernandez. Barez carries surprising power for his frame. He’s also competent on the mat with aggressive BJJ. Barez is going to be dangerous here, especially on the feet. That being said, I do see Filho as the slightly better fighter in this match-up. He has the more well-rounded game and we’ve seen him tested against a higher level of competition. Jafel Filho by Round Two Submission

Bruna Brasil -155 vs Shauna Bannon +125

Anthony: Next is a matchup at women’s strawweight between Bruna Brasil and Shauna Bannon. There is quite a bit of hype surrounding Bannon who enters this card a perfect 5-0. Representing Ireland here on the European stage, Bannon hopes to extend her unbeaten streak and make a mark in what is her UFC debut. I am not overly impressed by Bannon’s body of work but she is a rather solid prospect nonetheless. Given the reactive nature that Brasil tends to fight, I think an aggressive Bannon will find success here moving forward. Her jab and combination striking will beat Brasil to the punch in most exchanges. This is a rather low-level matchup all things considered and while I could see either girl winning, Bannon seems like a clear pick getting this plus number. I expect great crowd support for Bannon here. She is not going to be Ireland’s next star but I do see her winning a few fights in the UFC. Shauna Bannon by Decision
Nick: Shauna Bannon will be making her UFC debut in this match-up. She is 5-0 professionally, with each of those last three wins coming by decision. Bannon is athletic, but fairly raw in her abilities. She can be predictable both on the feet and in grappling exchanges, and most of her wins have come against a questionable level of competition. Bruna Brasil is 8-3-1 professionally, with three of those wins coming via KO and two via submission. She’s coming off a KO loss in her UFC debut to Denise Gomes, but Gomes has since been anointed as a prospect to watch with another massive win over Yazmin Jauregui. Brasil was awarded a UFC contract following an impressive win on Contender Series via Head Kick KO of Marnic Mann. She’s strong for the division, well-rounded, and seems to make considerable improvements in both her skills and her instincts everytime we see her in the cage. This is a low-level match-up and a tough one to call, but I do like Brasil as the favorite. She should be the more dangerous fighter no matter where this one goes. As long as she fights smart, Brasil should glide to a dominant decision. Bruna Brasil by Decision

Chris Duncan -155 vs Yanal Ashmouz +125

Anthony: This should be a great lightweight matchup with Chris Duncan facing Yanal Ashmouz. Duncan has serious power in his hands and while a bit of a liability on the defensive, he sure wins plenty of fights by KO. Representing Scotland, Duncan will surely get a good pop from the crowd given the fanbase he has already built. His aggressive style makes fights very fun to watch but as of late combinations are looking tighter and the footwork of Duncan has vastly improved. He is training at American Top Team and surely getting needed experience on the mats in preparation for this fight. Ashmouz would be wise to crowd Duncan and perhaps shoot but I see him instead playing with fire a bit too much here. Ashmouz is very skilled in terms of his kickboxing but a bigger and stronger Duncan has a good chance of stopping him. I will be betting Duncan in this spot at -155. Chris Duncan by Round Two KO
Nick: Ashmoz seems decent everywhere, but he’s slow in his movement and he’s only found success against low level opponents. He’s coming off an impressive win via KO in his UFC debut, which came as an underdog to a decent prospect in Sam Patterson. Even Patterson is somewhat unproven as an opponent, so it’s tough to gauge exactly what type of ceiling Ashmouz has in the UFC as a fighter. Chris Duncan is also coming into this match-up off a UFC debut win. His over Omar Morales via dominant decision. Duncan has one-shot KO power on the feet, but in that match-up with Morales he showed a more well-rounded game as he wrestled to control position for the majority of three rounds. Duncan is 10-1 professionally, with seven of those wins coming via KO. Having recently shifted camps to American Top Team, it’s encouraging to see Duncan fighting with more of an intelligent game plan and leaning more on his wrestling. Duncan’s chin makes this a risky play, but I do expect he gets his hand raised in this match-up. He should be able to slow this fight down and lean on his wrestling as he grinds Ashmouz out for three rounds. Chris Duncan by Decision

Ketlen Vieira -155 vs Pannie Kianzad +125

Anthony: This is a women’s bantamweight matchup between Pannie Kianzad and Ketlen Vieira. I am not expecting the most exhilarating fight here with both women rather low volume in their approach. Vieria pairs an average of 3.24 significant strikes landed per minute with just over one takedown per bout. She is strong compared to most 135ers and likely holds an edge over Kianzad if this fight is to hit the mat. I see this being a rather competitive match standing with Kianzad a bit more productive in the clinch than Vieira. These two will very likely get to the ground over the course of fifteen minutes and that is where I expect Vieira to separate herself and begin pulling away. Kianzad has solid takedown defense but she has proven to have issues getting back to the feet after grounded successfully. Vieira is the rightful favorite in this spot and my pick to get her hand raised. Ketlen Vieira by Decision
Nick: Viera is likely going to be the more dangerous fighter if this fight hits the mat. She’s a blackbelt in both BJJ and Judo. She has strong takedown and submission ability but she seems entirely content to fight at striking range or up against the cage. She recently recorded notable wins over former champions in Holly Holm and Miesha Tate, but more recently than that she fell to Raquel Pennington in a hard fought but narrow decision. Pannie Kianzad is a dangerous muay-thai style striker who does her best work in the clinch. She’s coming off a dominant win over Lina Lansberg, but she’s been out of action since April of 2022. Kianzad has shown improvements in her grappling, but she’s likely going to want to keep this fight standing. Vieira is the bigger and stronger fighter in this match-up. I expect Kianzad will have her moments on the feet, but she’s likely a level below her opponent in this one. Ketlen Vieira by Decision.

Makhmud Muradov -350 vs Bryan Barberena +260

Anthony: Next is a good scrap at middleweight between Makhmud Muradov and Bryan Barberena. While Barberena has achieved a lot of success in the men’s 170 pound division, he moved up weight Saturday for the first time since 2010. He will certainly be undersized against Muradov, but his scrappy and high pressure style will likely yield good results fighting bigger men at close range. Muradov’s fast hands and tight boxing will likely give Barberena problems. We will see a decisive edge in speed for the Uzbek fighter, and I imagine most boxing exchanges will end up going his way. Both men enter on two fight losing skids, competing here with their back against the wall. Barberena is a more live underdog than these odds suggest, but I still do not advise playing him here. Muradov is the far more technical striker of these two and likely puts on a kickboxing clinic. Barberena may come alive late here as I do not see Muradov stopping him. He has always been rather durable and up weight I imagine he can take punches even better than before. This is likely a fight that goes to the scorecards. Makhmud Muradov by Decision
Nick: Bryan Barbarena has fought some of the toughest welterweights in the UFC, but he’s moving up a weight class to 185 lbs for this match-up. Barberena is likely going to be considerably outsized here. He has fought at 155 lbs more recently than he has at 185. He’s primarily a brawler. While it is evident he’s past his prime, he’s still very dangerous when striking at range or out of breaks. Makmud Muradov has excellent footwork, which he uses to stay out of his opponent’s striking range. He’s a highly technical boxer, as a former member of Floyd Mayweather’s Money Team. He’s going to be the more powerful and accurate striker in this match-up, but he has faded at times so he’ll need to be careful with his pacing as a means to manage his gas tank. Muradov is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, so I expect he’ll be at his best as there is a good chance he’ll be fighting for his roster spot in this match-up. I Muradov’s size advantage here will help keep him away from Barberena’s power. He should be the better grappler in this match-up as well. Makhmud Muradov by Round Two KO

Jamal Pogues -155 vs Mick Parkin +125

Anthony: Heavyweights Jamal Pogues and Mick Parkin will compete next on the card. This is a very low skill matchup between heavyweights that are not all that large or technically skilled. You will notice the undefeated Parkin has good speed and ground work for a heavyweight, he is just simply still quite green. The technical striking is not all that great and while Parkin can stand and bang with plenty of low-level heavyweights, a man like Pogues can give him some issues. I imagine Pogues will outland Parkin here during exchanges standing, given the activity of his jab and the size he does possess. Pogues is very durable and appears a steadier fighter than Parkin. While I could see the Englishman winning this fight by early stoppage, any other outcome leads me to believe that Pogues will be victorious. His cardio is better than that of Parkin and I see this being a fight he can easily win by surviving into a late second round. Parkin has never before seen the start of a round three and Pogues will be far fresher if these two elapse that cage time here. Jamal Pogues by Decision
Nick: This is a low level heavyweight match-up, but both of these guys are more athletic than they look. Pogues is athletic for a heavyweight. He works well behind his jab, and he’s shown in certain match-ups he is more than willing to lean on his solid wrestling base. He’s 10-3 professionally, coming off a UFC debut win over Josh Parisian. Mick Parkin will be making his UFC debut in this match-up. He is 6-0 professionally, having won all of his professional fights via finish in the first or second round. He’s most recently coming off a Contender Series win via submission over Eduardo Neves as a moderate underdog. He’s a powerful striker with decent BJJ, but it’s tough to gauge his level as he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. This is a tough fight to call given its low level nature, but I do side with Pogues as the favorite here. He’s going to be the bigger fighter in this match-up with the more well-rounded game. We’ve also seen him find success against a higher level of competition than Parkin. Jamal Pogues by Decision

Joel Alvarez -200 vs Marc Diakiese +160

Anthony: This should be an awesome lightweight bout with Joel Alvarez taking on Marc Diakiese. Alvarez shocked a lot of people starting his UFC career 3-0. He has taken off more than a year after last losing to Arman Tsarukyan, but I remain rather high on the Spanish prospect. Alvarez is a huge 155er benefiting from a four-inch reach advantage over Diakiese. He is a very dangerous striker with great elbows and efficiency in the clinch. I do not consider Alvarez more technically skilled than Diakiese, but he is faster and more powerful. Diakiese may elect to wrestle in this fight but I do not favor his chances in doing so. Alvarez is a very skilled jiu jitsu practitioner with numerous defensive submissions in his repertoire. He seems like a good bet at these odds given the numerous outs he has. I like his chances in a kickboxing match with Diakiese or perhaps catching a guillotine or an armbar if he does elect to shoot. I got my bets down on Alvarez after he successfully made weight on Friday morning. Joel Alvarez by Round Two Submission
Nick: Joel Alvarez is extremely tall for a lightweight. He is decent on the feet, but his offensive grappling is his greatest weapon as a BJJ brown-belt with most of his wins coming via submission. He’s been out of action since an ugly loss via ground-and-pound to Arman Tsarukyan back in February of 2022. However, prior to that he was on a four fight winning streak (all via finish). Marc Diakiese is a talented striker. He’s technically sound with underrated power. He does a good job mixing kicks into his combinations and he’s excellent in the clinch and offensively out of breaks. He’s been leaning on his wrestling much more lately, but in this particular match-up that could spell trouble against such a dangerous grappler in Alvarez. This is a tough fight to call as each fighter has proven to be inconsistent at this level. However, I do see Alvarez getting it done. Diakiese should be able to score takedowns, but I don’t see him keeping Alvarez down for long. Additionally, he’s going to be in a lot of danger on the mat once Alvarez gets his BJJ going. Joel Alvarez by Round One Submission

Danny Roberts -120 vs Jonny Parsons +100

Anthony: Next is a bout here at welterweight between Danny Roberts and Jonny Parsons. This is a very interesting bout, sticking right around even odds all week. Late action has swayed things in favor of Roberts but that may just be due to the home contingent on hand. Roberts represents the United Kingdom well, fighting great while kickboxing and having some serious power at 170 pounds. I give him the edge in technical striking compared to Parsons who is a bit more active and wild. Parsons looked great in his only octagon appearance thus far and now facing Roberts he will again need to keep his motor turned up. Roberts tends to be very hittable when moving backwards and far more dangerous to an opponent when he is dictating a fight’s pace. Out of all fifteen contests today this one bout has given me the most trouble landing on a pick. I do rate Roberts a bit lower than the general public but still view him in a higher light than the unproven Parsons. I read Parsons as a more gritty and determined force, ultimately giving him the slight edge in my eyes. I see a clean bout going the way of Roberts while a dogfight will instead result in Parsons earning this win. Jonny Parsons by Decision
Nick: Jonny Parsons will be making his UFC debut in this match-up, coming off an impressive Contender Series win over a highly regarded prospect in Solomon Renfro. Parson’s not all that athletic, but he has excellent fundamentals both on the feet and in terms of his grappling. He works well behind his jab, does a good job blocking big shots and his durability and cardio have carried him to where he is at this point in his career. He is 8-3 professionally, coming off five consecutive wins. Roberts is a technically gifted striker with solid footwork, but his chin is extremely suspect as four of his seven professional losses have come via KO. He has underrated offensive grappling ability with decent BJJ, but his takedown entries are mediocre at best. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss to Jack Della Maddalena, but he’s in a much more favorable fight this time around against the debuting Jonny Parsons. Roberts’ durability is certainly a concern, but he’s the much more experienced fighter in this match-up. I expect he’ll lead most striking exchanges, he’ll be more explosive than Parsons, and there’s a good chance he’s the better grappler here as well. Danny Roberts by Decision

Daniel Marcos -150 vs Davey Grant +120

Anthony: The featured prelim comes at bantamweight with Daniel Marcos taking on Davey Grant. Expect fireworks here as is always the case with Dangerous Davey Grant. The Englishman has won two straight fights by third round finish and collected a Fight of the Night bonus against Raphael Assuncao in March. He is truly a dog, willing to eat shots and keep fighting no matter the opponent standing opposite him. Marcos is a very skilled striker and exciting prospect. The 14-0 professional has all the makings of a ranked fighter. I am a fan of his aggressive style, and Marcos’ tendency to diversify attacks to the body and legs. I think he can certainly hurt Grant trading blows on the feet, but Marcos is relatively unproven in terms of his competition. A savvy veteran like Grant could certainly pull Marcos into deep waters and make this more of a brawl than what’s been anticipated. We will likely see Marcos get his hand raised early here, but if not expect a very competitive back and forth. I will be backing Grant as a small underdog and the hometown favorite fighting here at the O2 Arena. Grant has not competed in England since UFC 204 when Michael Bisping beat Dan Henderson. Davey Grant by Round Three KO
Nick: Daniel Marcos is 14-0 professionally, coming off a win in his UFC debut via KO over Saimon Oliveira. Marcos is primarily a striker who does a good job throwing strikes in lengthy combinations. He’s a decent defensive grappler, but on the mat he’s most content to try to work his way back to his feet rather than try to advance position. Eight of his professional wins have come via KO, but this certainly represents a considerable step up in competition for him here against a proven vet in Davey Grant. Davey Grant is a well-rounded fighter who manages to outmuscle most of his opponents at bantamweight. His striking is somewhat unconventional, but he carries surprising power. He has a solid wrestling base and does a good job in the ground and pound department if he can take his opponent to the mat. He does a good job moving out of range after throwing combinations and his footwork is solid in spite of his unconventional style. Marcos is a potent finisher and the more athletic fighter in this match-up. That being said, I’m siding with Grant as the more proven commodity. He should have technical advantages no matter where this one goes. Davey Grant by Decision

Main Card- Starts 3:00pm EST

Lerone Murphy -150 vs Joshua Culibao +120

Anthony: The main card opens with featherweights Lerone Murphy and Joshua Culibao. This is a very exciting matchup with two fighters competing just on the cusp of the rankings. Murphy is 12-0-1 as a professional with rather strong competition faced thus far in the UFC. He is a very sound technical fighter, nicely mixing his disciplines while striking on the feet with precision. Culibao has a slight edge over Murphy in terms of single shot power but I largely expect Murphy to win this fight’s exchanges on the feet. Culibao has some dangerous offensive jiu jitsu that he could certainly implement today. Murphy is however very good at defending takedowns and competing with opponents in a range that suits him. I think the jab and tight boxing from Murphy prevents a brawler like Culibao from closing the distance. Murphy is being showcased in this particular spot and I suggest getting some action on him with odds this close. A few more wins for Murphy and he will be standing across from somebody in this division’s top ten. Culibao is a great fighter with the spirit to keep on brawling, but I expect to see him outclassed quite definitely today. Lerone Murphy by Decision
Nick: Murphy is a well-rounded fighter with impressive speed and an excellent gas tank. He comes into this fight with a 12-0-1 professional record, having won each of his last four fights under the UFC banner. Murphy is a gifted striker with enough grappling ability, both offensively and defensively, to hang with the majority of the division. He has developed a reputation as a slow starter and his volume seems low at times, but he’s shown to have a fairly high fight IQ as his fights wear on and he can be very dangerous once he starts building momentum. Culibao is fairly well-rounded, but he is most content to stand and trade on the feet. He has shown excellent durability and a solid overall fight IQ, as he seems to always make the correct decisions regardless of whether he’s winning or losing a fight. He’s likely going to be the more active fighter in this match-up, and he’s also going to have a cardio advantage. Murphy is athletically gifted, but generally inconsistent and overly tentative. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll take a chance on Culibao as an underdog here. I expect he has enough durability here to win this fight on volume. Joshua Culibao by Decision

Fares Ziam -165 vs Jai Herbert +135

Anthony: Next is the matchup between Jai Herbert and Fares Ziam. This is a very interesting stylistic clash with both men being long, lanky lightweights that are interested in throwing hands. Ziam is a very skilled kickboxer with quick hands and a snappy jab. I like the variety in his shot selection with Ziam generally pairing kicks very well with his high level boxing. He is far more steady than the opposing Herbert who looks to compete with haymakers in the pocket. While Herbert has shown some flashes of brilliance as a professional he is rather vulnerable when it comes to his striking defense. I see him eating a lot of shots from Ziam today, making his offensive output far less threatening as this bout gets into rounds two and three. I would be excited to see Herbert pull off the upset here but I cannot trust the guy with my hard earned money. Ziam feels like the much safer pick, working well from range and touching Herbert far more often than he gets hit himself. Fares Ziam by Decision
Nick: Herbert is a former Cage Warriors Champion with decent BJJ, but his most recent wins have come via strikes on the feet. He’s most comfortable fighting in the clinch with a strong muay-thai base, but he’s fairly competent no matter where a fight takes him. Ziam is primarily a kickboxer who does a good job utilizing both his jab and leg kicks to keep his opponents at a distance. He is 13-4 professionally, most recently coming off an impressive upset win over Michal Figlak. Herbert is going to have a reach advantage here and his power in striking exchanges is certainly enough to potentially pull off the upset. That being said, I see Ziam as the more durable and defensively sound striker in this match-up. Additionally, he has a clear path to victory if he chooses to lean on a more grappling heavy game plan. Fares Ziam by Decision

Andre Muniz -225 vs Paul Craig +180

Anthony: This should be a sick tilt at middleweight with Paul Craig taking on Andre Muniz. After accruing the most submissions in UFC light heavyweight history, Craig is moving down today to compete at 185 pounds. It is an interesting move as weight is not a major factor while grappling. I do not see Craig having much better takedown entries down weight and I doubt his ability to take a shot improved much at all. He has historically been a bit chinny and I imagine further dehydrating throughout the week does not make matters better. Muniz is an elite BJJ black belt that can without a doubt challenge Craig on the mat. We have seen some improvements in the striking of Muniz and I feel he has the edge in periods when these two are kickboxing. Anything can happen if this fight hits the mat but Muniz seems to warrant the current price tag. He is a large favorite given the wins already at middleweight and the volatile nature of Paul Craig’s appearances. I think Muniz wins this fight inside of the first ten minutes. Andre Muniz by Round Two KO
Nick: Andre Muniz has extremely advanced BJJ and he’s one of the better grapplers there are in the division. Fifteen of Muniz’ twenty-three professional victories have come by way of submission. His striking continues to show improvements, but he telegraphs his more powerful shots. In his most recent fight, a brutal loss via submission to Brendan Allen, his cardio quickly depleted under Allen’s pressure heavy attack. Paul Craig is similar to Muniz in that he is usually aggressive early. He starts to fade when he can’t find an early finish, but he’s usually very dangerous for as long as his cardio holds up. Craig has outstanding BJJ, with thirteen of his sixteen professional wins coming via submission. He’s moving down a weight class here after fighting most of his career at light heavyweight. He should have a size advantage in this match-up, but it’s difficult to gauge how well his cardio and chin translate down to middleweight. Craig can be dangerous if this fight extends into the third round, but it seems more likely Muniz can catch him on the feet early or keep Craig in positions where he’s going to struggle to get any offense going. I don’t like the price, but Muniz is the play here. He’s simply the better striker and grappler in this match-up. Andre Muniz by Round Two Submission

Nathaniel Wood -215 vs Andre Fili +170

Anthony: The featured bout is a featherweight fight between Andre Fili and Nathaniel Wood. This should be a very competitive matchup between two durable and high action fighters. Wood has been on my radar for a while and I am always excited about the scraps that he’s involved with. Wood’s striking offense is very effective, working partially in a karate stance and blasting kicks at his opponents. That striking is supplemented with great grappling and awareness of positions at all times. It will be the counter wrestling for Wood that determines this bout against Fili. Normally it is Touchy Fili getting the better of exchanges along the fence and even scoring takedowns of his own. Wood’s built but also very quick and very dependent on late rounds. I see him avoiding much of Fili’s pressure today and winning this fight with a rather clean performance, largely from just outside of range. Nathaniel Wood by Decision
Nick: This is an excellent match-up with a serious chance to be awarded Fight of the Night. Wood has crisp striking and he throws intelligent combinations on the feet. He keeps a serious pace and puts constant pressure on his opponents. At his best he can put out serious volume while mixing in takedowns to keep his opponents guessing. His conditioning has been solid lately, but we have seen him fade late in fights earlier on in his career. He recently moved up to featherweight, and he’s since coming off back-to-back wins over Charles Rosa and Charles Jourdain. Fili is a well-rounded fighter. He throws powerful strikes, he has solid wrestling and his athleticism allows him to stay competitive against a wide range of top-level opponents. He’s an effective striker that uses his length well, but he’s relied on his grappling and wrestling in most of his professional victories. Fili is going to have a considerable size advantage here, but Wood does a good job darting in and out of his opponent’s striking range. The line here feels too wide, but I do see Wood as the rightful favorite. Nathaniel Wood by Decision

Molly McCann -215 vs Julija Stoliarenko +170

Anthony: The co-main event is a flyweight matchup between Molly McCann and Julija Stoliarenko. This booking seems designed to get McCann back into the win column after the beating she took in her last appearance at Madison Square Garden. Stoliarenko is currently on a 1-4 skid with her only win coming over Jessica-Rose Clark. She is a specialist, utilizing judo and particularly arm attacks to finish her opponents by submission. It is an interesting dynamic with McCann just having been finished via kimura, but I do not see the same outcome materializing twice. McCann should stay out of grappling exchanges with Stoliarenko. It will likely be difficult for the Lithuanian to execute offensive grappling any better now while cutting an extra ten pounds. McCann will have the edge striking against her and I do not see Stoliarenko winning by any means other than armbar. Molly McCann by Decision
Nick: McCann does a good job working behind her jab. She is an extremely aggressive brawler with crisp boxing ability, decent defensive grappling ability and excellent cardio. She is capable of leaning on her wrestling against inferior grapplers but there’s certainly no denying that she prefers to stand and swing. Her durability and grit are amongst her better qualities. She is coming off a brutal loss via submission to Erin Blanchfield, but she’s being given a much more winnable fight here in front of her home crowd. Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with good enough BJJ to score her favorite submission from a variety of positions. She is 10-7-1 professionally, but just 1-4 in the UFC. Stoliarenko is tough, but she really only has one path to victory. As long as McCann avoids that armbar, this feels like a fight she should clearly dominate on the feet. Molly McCann by Round Two KO

Tom Aspinall -500 vs Marcin Tybura +350

Anthony: The card today concludes with a heavyweight main event between Marcin Tybura and the returning Tom Aspinall. After selling out the O2 Arena this time last year, Aspinall has fully healed and prepares to return against another top ten contender. It was a devastating injury Aspinall suffered, tearing his knee immediately against Curtis Blaydes. Surely he will make his return to action in front of an emotional crowd cheering for him to get back into title contention. Tybura is an interesting test for Aspinall stylistically but I do not see Tom having any hiccups today if he is fully healed. The boxing skills and incredibly quick hands of Aspinall will get Tybura worried about his chances on the feet early. We will likely see Tybura desperate to clinch Aspinall and work on scoring takedowns here in a drawn out five round main event. Aspinall will likely catch Tybura on his way into the pocket but even if we see a few scrambles in this fight he should be worth the hefty price tag. Very few heavyweights have the jiu jitsu to compete with the likes of Aspinall. He has numerous paths to victory in this fight and I imagine a quick finish does materialize. Tybura has only fought top level competition on a few occasions and most of those appearances saw him come up short. He is certainly up against it here today facing a clear superstar on his home turf. It is unlikely this fight gets signed if the UFC did not trust Aspinall’s health and ability to defend when facing grapplers. Tom Aspinall by Round Two KO
Nick: Both of these fighters are extremely similar in that they are both durable and difficult to take down. Tybura is decent on the feet, but most of his success has come via his wrestling. Tybura is a BJJ black belt and one of the better offensive grapplers in the division. His career does seem to be on a bit of a decline, but he is coming off back-to-back wins over Blagoy Ivanov and Alexandr Romanov. Aspinall doesn’t really have a ton of experience, but he had strung together nine consecutive wins via finish before tearing his ACL against Curtis Blaydes when he last fought in July of 2022. He’s a surprisingly well-rounded heavyweight considering he only has fifteen total fights on his professional record. A former training partner of Tyson Fury, Aspinall has excellent footwork and head movement. He is a highly technical boxer with advanced ability both offensively and defensively. He has impressive speed for the division, but returning from a knee injury it has yet to be seen if that’s been maintained through his recovery. The line is getting wide, but I do expect Aspinall to get it done here. Tybura has had issues with athletic heavyweights, and Aspinall fits that mold and then some. Tom Aspinall by Round One KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com