Kevin Kiermaier’s Latest Injury Scare Highlights Blue Jays’ Thin Outfield Depth
If there’s one outcome the Toronto Blue Jays can’t afford this season, it’s losing one of their three starting outfielders for an extended period due to injury. And so far, they’ve been very fortunate in that regard.
At the same time, it’s hard to ignore this team’s outfield depth – or lack thereof – beyond its starting trio, who have remained relatively healthy up to this point.
George Springer, Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho have been as advertised over these two-plus months, especially defensively. But what happens if one of them lands on the injured list? Would the Blue Jays be able to keep their heads above water if any required a prolonged IL stint?
That thought likely crossed the coaching staff’s minds on Thursday as Kiermaier was struck on his left wrist by a 95.6 mph sinker from Houston’s Framber Valdez, ultimately causing him to exit the game following his first at-bat after initially trying to fight through the pain.
The Blue Jays sent the 33-year-old for precautionary X-rays, which thankfully returned negative, prompting a huge sigh of relief for everyone involved. As of now, the veteran centre-fielder is considered day-to-day with a left wrist contusion.
It appears Toronto has dodged another injury bullet with its All-Star-calibre outfielder, who missed a few games last month after his back locked up on May 27th in Minnesota. But minor ailments are bound to happen for a player nearing his mid-30s who is a max-effort defender.
Kiermaier, however, does feature a lengthy injury history, headlined by last season’s hip surgery that ended his 2022 campaign after just 63 games. He isn’t alone, as Springer endured extended IL stints over his first two seasons in Toronto.
While Springer has avoided a similar fate this season, at least so far, assuming he won’t fall victim to the injury bug at some point would be quite the gamble. That’s the risk the Blue Jays are currently taking however.
Relying heavily on the talented trio of Springer, Kiermaier and Varsho has paid off out of the gate, as Toronto’s outfield leads the majors by a wide margin in Defensive Runs Saved (+19). They also rank second in Ultimate Zone Rating (9.1), behind the Milwaukee Brewers (15.0).
Kiermaier and Varsho – acquired in the off-season to improve the Blue Jays’ run prevention – have been key reasons for that success, with the pair positioned in a three-way tie for first in DRS (+10) with Oakland’s Ramon Laureano.
But as productive as they’ve been, the club is just one serious injury away from needing Whit Merrifield to play meaningful reps outside the infield. Though he’s been asked to do that before, previously with the Kansas City Royals, it wouldn’t be ideal in this scenario.
Merrifield, hitting .296/.352/.388 with a 110 wRC+ in 57 games this season, has excelled offensively early on in his first full season with the Blue Jays. His defence, meanwhile, has been serviceable in left field, where he’s broken even in DRS and posted -3 OAA across a career-high 173.2 innings.
Assigning the former Royal to left field regularly wouldn’t be catastrophic. It would create a large vacancy at second base, though, left to be filled by Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio – neither of whom has performed well in 2023.
Collectively, that underwhelming duo has combined for a .187/.257/.304 slash line, five home runs, 15 RBIs, a .252 wOBA and a 57 wRC+ in 66 games (188 plate appearances), worth -0.4 fWAR. They’ve also struck out (24.5%) significantly more than they’ve walked (6.9%).
Asking Espinal and Biggio to hold down the fort at second base likely isn’t the answer, and rightly so. The problem, however, is leaving Merrifield in the infield wouldn’t be a solution either, as the only other player on the 26-man roster with outfield experience is Nathan Lukes.
While capable of playing all three outfield positions, Lukes has yet to provide much offensive upside, slashing .188/.278/.313 with five punchouts and a 66 wRC+ in just 18 plate appearances this season.
This dilemma isn’t because of Espinal, Biggio or even Lukes’ struggles. It’s due to the Blue Jays’ poor roster construction beyond their starting nine. It was an issue before Opening Day and is just as much a problem in June.
Toronto’s front office remade its outfield over the off-season, signing Kiermaier and acquiring Varsho via trade – hitting on both moves – but came up one right-handed bat shy of an A+-worthy winter. And little progress has occurred since then.
Not only has this left them thin in the outfield, but it’s also negatively impacted the club’s performance versus left-handed pitching, as they sit 21st in wRC+ (98) and 27th in SLG (.376) amongst all 30 MLB franchises in these matchups.
Those inefficiencies are magnified when specified to outfielders, with the Blue Jays’ tied for 18th in wRC+ (89) and ranked 24th in SLG (.343) against lefties. They’ve also recorded the second-fewest number of home runs (two), underscoring their power shortage.
Jordan Luplow, who features a career .498 SLG and 122 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching, was acquired off waivers from the Atlanta Braves in April to help address this concern. But he only earned seven plate appearances – two against Shane McClanahan – before being optioned back to Triple-A Buffalo.
Given this weakness, of course, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins must target a right-handed hitter that excels versus lefties leading up to the August 1st trade deadline. Any discussions likely won’t heat up for at least another few weeks, though.
As Atkins examines the market, his preference should be adding some much-needed thump to his lineup in the form of an outfielder – such as Jorge Soler, Nick Senzel or Lane Thomas, perhaps. The one thing that trio has in common: slugging versus lefties.
None of them classify as an everyday player, but they would help fill the void in a part-time role if Kiermaier, Springer or Varsho missed significant time and effectively round out the rest of Toronto’s roster.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: Mark. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.