UFC Fight Night: Kansas City

UFC Kansas City: Holloway vs Allen – 4.15.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Kansas City: Holloway vs Allen. We are in for a great card here tonight in Kansas City with the former champion Max Holloway set to return to action. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 77-55-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 91-41-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 4-15-2023 at 1am EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 5:30pm EST

Lucie Pudilova -140 vs Joselyne Edwards +115

Anthony: Our action today begins with women’s bantamweights Joselyne Edwards and Lucie Pudilova. This is a tough fight to call with both women realizing recent UFC success. Pudilova started off her second stint with the promotion right, finishing Wu Yanan in their matchup last August. She is going to have the advantage over Edwards in most positions of this fight. Her clinchwork is better than that of Edwards and despite ceding a bit of size, Pudilova also has an edge on the mat. Edwards would prefer to keep this fight at kickboxing range and working from the outside against Pudilova. The recent wins for her have been rather solid but I do think Edwards has a ceiling outside of the division’s top ten. She struggles to win consistently and I do think Pudilova edges her in terms of total strikes landed today. I will not be betting anything on this particular matchup but I lean the way of Pudilova who appears a bit more refined. Lucie Pudilova by Decision
Nick: Pudilova is an aggressive striker who is more than content to stand and trade. She’s decent offensively, but she takes a lot of damage in exchanges. She’s coming off a solid win over Wu Yanan, her first win under the UFC banner since 2018. That fight marked her return to the roster after an extended run with Czech promotion, Oktagon. Joselyne Edwards is a Muay Thai style striker who finds most of her success striking both at range and in the clinch. She has decent offensive grappling ability, but she has trouble getting back to her feet if she’s taken down by her opponent. She’s coming off back-to-back decision wins over Ramona Pascual and Ji-Yeon Kim. She’s almost always in very close fights, and this is likely to be another one here. Edwards will be live to pull off the upset if she can keep this fight standing, but I expect Pudilova to be the one moving forward and finding takedowns if and when she needs them. This is a relatively low level match-up, but I’m backing the favorite. Lucie Pudilova by Decision

Gaston Bolanos -200 vs Aaron Phillips +160

Anthony: Next is a fight at bantamweight between Aaron Phillips and Gaston Bolanos. This is the UFC debut for Bolanos who had been previously signed with Bellator. His professional record includes three losses, but also six incredible wins by knockout. He is a devastating muay thai striker that tends to set traps well and execute with a high rate of efficiency. Phillips feels like a favorable draw for Bolanos given his background in taekwondo and general point fighting. He is likely to get chewed up by the leg kicks of Bolanos here as these two exchange largely from distance. I expect Phillips to be limited in his movement as this bout goes late and there will certainly be opportunities for Bolanos to land that seminal blow. The one issue I have with backing the guy is the large periods of inactivity we tend to see in every fight. Phillips will likely win minutes here and perhaps mix in a few takedowns. However, Bolanos has crippling power for a 135er and I see him adding to his highlight reel with another win here today. Gaston Bolanos by Round Two KO
Nick: This should be a fun fight for however long it lasts, but there is no denying it is a low-level contest by UFC standards. Gaston Bolanos will be making his UFC debut here, having fought primarily for Bellator for the majority of his career. He most recently fought in April of 2022, where he KO’d a mediocre opponent in Daniel Carey. Bolanos is primarily a striker, all six of his professional wins have come via KO. Aaron Phillips has been out of action since he lost to Jack Shore back in July of 2020. He is 12-4 professionally, with six of those wins coming via KO. He is well-rounded and decent everywhere, but he really doesn’t carry any standout skill. If Phillips leans on a wrestling heavy gameplan here he’ll be very live to pull of the upset. That being said, I expect Bolanos’ aggressive and more explosive style will be too much for him early. Another low confidence play on a low-level match-up, but Bolanos is the pick. Gaston Bolanos by Round One KO

Bruna Brasil -160 vs Denise Gomes +130

Anthony: This is a women’s strawweight matchup between Bruna Brasil and Denise Gomes. I am not very impressed with the resume of either one of these women, struggling to earn wins against the upper echelon opponents they have faced. Both are alums of Dana White’s Contender Series with Gomes already fighting once inside of the UFC. She is a bit of a brawler, often walking forward against opponents and looking to close distance by any means necessary. Gomes is accustomed to fighting against bigger foes and once again she walks to the cage today ceding three inches in reach to her opponent. Brasil is a better technical striker than Gomes and likely lands a lot of good counters on her as she marches forward. I simply believe the 23 year old can take most of what Brasil dishes, making this a fight many would struggle to score. Brasil is the more likely fighter to find a finish here, but in a bout that goes to decision I think Gomes’ fairs very well. Her activity and forward pressure should be enough to steal this victory if she does not eat too much damage on the feet. Denise Gomes by Decision
Nick: Gomes fights aggressively, primarily as a striker, but she is far from technically refined. While effective on the offensive end, her mediocre footwork and head movement often leaves her in compromising positions defensively. She is coming off a decision loss in her UFC debut to a tough opponent in Loma Lookboonmee. Bruna Brasil will be making her UFC debut here, coming off an impressive win on Contender Series via Head Kick KO of Marnic Mann. She is 8-2-1 professionally, with three of those wins coming via KO and two via submission. Her only professional losses came to opponents that also fought for the UFC. If Gomes chooses to lean on her grappling here she could be live for an upset. That being said, it is very rare that she engages in that part of her game. I expect this fight to mostly take place at striking range where Brasil should have the advantage. Bruna Brasil by Decision

Daniel Zellhuber -130 vs Lando Vannata +105

Anthony: This is a lightweight matchup with Daniel Zellhuber facing Lando Vannata. I was upset by Zellhuber’s UFC debut last fall, losing a decision to Trey Ogden. Zellhuber stuffed nearly every takedown attempt but did not give the judge’s enough to score in the prolonged moments he had Ogden standing. It is critical he throw out a higher rate of attacks today facing an even tougher test in Vannata. Zellhuber thankfully has the size and reach to limit his opponent’s offense, likely muting most of Vannata’s work here in the stand up today. Lando has landed a takedown in three straight bouts and likely prefers to grapple given this draw and the kickboxing skills of Zellhuber. I could see Vannata dominating this bout by mixing in well timed shots, but Zellhuber thus far boasts a takedown defense of 88 percent. At nearly even odds I feel there is value in Zellhuber if he can bounce back and prove to be a legitimate prospect. I do not see a bright future for him if unable to find a way past Lando Vannata. Daniel Zellhuber by Round Two KO
Nick: At his best, Daniel Zellhuber is a creative striker that uses his range well. He fights well behind his jab, he’s extremely quick getting in and out of exchanges, and his overall grappling ability seems to be quite advanced for a new-comer. He’s a highly regarded prospect, but his stock took a major hit in his UFC debut where he lost a convincing decision to Trey Ogden. Zellhuber is only 23-years old, and he seemed overwhelmed by the moment in his debut. He barely threw any strikes, he was mostly reactionary, and he fell as a heavy favorite to an inferior opponent compared to Vannata. Lando Vannata is a hyper-aggressive fighter known for his willingness to brawl. He likes to throw a lot of spinning attacks and at his best he’s capable of hanging with top level fighters. Vannata has really changed his game from being hyper-aggressive to a more heady and conservative approach. While this change in styles could extend Vannata’s career, it makes it tougher for him to take over a fight and impose his will on opponents. Vannata has a decent wrestling base and I expect he’ll have a considerable grappling advantage in this match-up. Vannata will be moving back up to lightweight here after an unsuccessful run at 145 lbs. It seemed Vannata had to cut too much weight to fight down at featherweight, so the move up should help contribute to both his cardio and his strength. There is no denying Zellhuber’s skills on the feet, but I expect the veteran in Vannata to lean on a wrestling heavy gameplan as he pulls out the upset on the scorecards. Lando Vannata by Decision

Gillian Robertson -130 vs Piera Rodriguez +105

Anthony: Next is a women’s strawweight bout between Gillian Robertson and Piera Rodriguez. This appears to be a clash of styles with the grappler in Robertson looking to submit a more striking focused Rodriguez. I really like what I have seen out of La Fiera thus far, winning two bouts in the UFC. She fights behind a great jab and has much better boxing than Robertson as evidenced by her last showing, lighting up Sam Hughes. Offensive grappling is also a strength of Rodriguez, but not necessarily something she should be reliant on here as she faces a blackbelt. I am expecting Rodriguez to defend takedowns well and look to pick away at Robertson standing. It is a tough bout to call but I do not think Roberston is the one to hand her that first professional loss. Getting her hands going early will be key to victory. Piera Rodriguez by Decision
Nick: We have an interesting match-up here between a striker and a grappler. Gillian Robertson is outstanding on the mat, with eight of her eleven professional wins coming via submission. Piera Rodriguez is a dangerous and aggressive striker with five of her nine professional wins coming via KO. Rodriguez is a tough and aggressive fighter who does her best work when she can push forward and pressure her opponents. She throws well timed strikes, she’s defensively sound, and against inferior opponents she can win off her excellent athleticism and speed. On the mat, Robertson is going to have a considerable technical advantage here, but she’s going to need to be careful early as Rodriguez is likely going to push the pace and try to swarm her. Robertson is one of the more impressive young grapplers in this division and her BJJ is much more dangerous than any of Rodriguez’s recent opponents. It may not come clear or early, but I do expect Robertson to find the takedown she needs to eventually secure a submission. Another low confidence play, but the style difference here certainly favors Robertson. Gillian Robertson by Round Two Submission

Zak Cummings -225 vs Ed Herman +180

Anthony: This is a light heavyweight contest between Ed Herman and Zak Cummings. I am not very excited for this bout as both men appear to be well over the hill. Herman has fought out his contract with the promotion and this will likely be his last UFC appearance win or lose. He debuted in the promotion in 2006 and while Herman certainly had a quiet career, it is impressive he can still compete and win at this level. His last appearance against Alonzo Menifield was not great, but it was another matchup where he fought hard for a full three rounds. The bouts prior for Herman include two solid wins and one suspect one over Mike Rodriguez. Cummings had competed just once in that timeframe and now walks again for the first time since 2020. I think Cummings is as washed as Herman, only appearing here today in his hometown of Kansas City. He is a more dangerous striker than Herman but I imagine a finish won’t come easy for him moving up weight. He may be quicker than old Ed, but Herman can really make this bout sloppy and win minutes off Cummings in the clinch. It is a really awful fight and I cannot believe anyone is betting Cummings as the biggest favorite on today’s card. I’ll side with Herman getting +180 odds. Ed Herman by Decision
Nick: Zak Cummings has been mostly successful across his lengthy UFC run, but he’s been out of action since August of 2020. He most recently secured a convincing decision win over Alessio Di Chirico, but it’s tough to know what to expect from him here given his lengthy time off. He had been dealing with a litany of injuries, and there is a decent chance this is his last fight ever before he retires. Herman is a tough and gritty veteran and the longest tenured fighter on the UFC roster. He’s relatively well-rounded and has a solid chin, but he doesn’t throw much volume on the feet and he often struggles to get going against more aggressive opponents. He is coming off a decision loss to a tough out in Alonzo Menifield, a fight in which many expected he’d be quickly KO’d. These are two of the older and slower fighters on the roster, but Cummings likely has more paths to victory. This should be a competitive fight on the feet, but if Cummings can mix in some wrestling here then I expect he can justify this price tag in front of his home crowd. Zak Cummings by Decision

Matheus Nicolau -210 vs Brandon Royval +170

Anthony: Next up is a great flyweight scrap between Brandon Royval and Matheus Nicolau. These are two extremely high action fighters in one of the promotions’ more intense divisions. Royval is a scrappy fighter, looking to brawl and get into scrambles to utilize his high level jiu jitsu. He is a terror to deal with on the feet due to his creative attacks and fast hands, even though the power and fundamentals are lacking. Nicolau has the much more proficient boxing and he certainly would be favored if this were a pure striking match. Not only has he accrued six consecutive victories but also three knockdowns in his previous two UFC bouts. When these two are competing upright it will be Nicolau putting together the more coherent offensive attacks. Royval is slick with his BJJ but Nicolau is a black belt that should do just fine defending any early submission attempts. While Royval is a guy that fights hard for your dollar, I see him being slightly outmatched in this particular meeting. Nicolau is the more refined fighter by far and I see Royval’s output tapering off as this bout goes late. Matheus Nicolau by Round Three Submission
Nick: We have an excellent match-up here between two fighters that are likely very close to securing a title shot at flyweight. Nicolau is an underrated striker. He does a good job moving in and out of the range of his opponents. He’s a decent grappler as well, especially defensively. The biggest knock on him is that he sometimes waits for fights to come to him. He’s coming off impressive wins over Matt Schnell, David Dvorak, Manel Kape, and Tim Elliott. He’s usually in closely contested match-ups, so the line feels a bit wide here against a tough out in Brandon Royval. Royval is one of the more aggressive fighters there is on the roster. He starts fights like he’s shot out of a cannon. He is well-rounded with a solid chin but his crafty BJJ and dangerous offensive grappling ability is certainly his greatest strength. He has notable wins over Kai Kara-France, Tim Elliot, and Matt Schnell. He thrives in chaos and he’s done a good job forcing opponents to fight at his ridiculous pace. Nicolau will have technical advantages in this match-up, especially on the feet. It wouldn’t shock me at all if he can KO Royval on a counter, but I doubt Royval lets him get comfortable enough to fight at a comfortable pace. This should be an outstanding fight and one that I could see going either way, but I’m going to take a shot on the underdog. Royval has an uncanny ability to force opponents to fight his style of fight, a style not well-suited for Nicolau’s highly technical and measured skill set. Brandon Royval by Round Two Submission

Bill Algeo -200 vs TJ Brown +160

Anthony: The featured prelim is a featherweight scrap between Bill Algeo and TJ Brown. 2022 had been a turbulent year for Brown who switched up his camp here in Kansas City with the departure of coach James Krause. He fought for an impressive win over Erik Silva in his most recent appearance, but losses have revealed some gaps in Brown’s efficiency and overall Fight IQ. Algeo appears to be the much more steady fighter, putting out consistent volume and getting the better of most opponents when competing on the feet. Brown will look to test Algeo’s 55 percent takedown defense here in route to a fight won there on the mat. I think he is at a severe disadvantage today electing to strike with a taller and longer opponent. He is very live to cash an underdog ticket, relying on takedowns and control time in doing so. Brown is the pick for me but with little confidence. He is probably going to eat quite a few combinations each time he looks to enter into the clinch. TJ Brown by Decision
Nick: TJ Brown is fairly well-rounded, but he is extremely inconsistent. He has sneaky power for a featherweight, but he takes a lot of damage in exchanges. Brown is primarily a grappler who averages just under four takedowns per 15 minutes. Algeo’s striking looks solid offensively, but he often seems to leave himself open to counter-shots. He has a long frame, but he doesn’t fully utilize his reach advantage as he throws a lot of crosses and looping hooks. He puts together effective combos, but he often leaves his hands down too low against good counter punchers. Algeo has underrated offensive grappling as a BJJ black belt, but I don’t expect him to lean on that part of his game here. While Algeo is certainly a competent grappler, I expect Brown to have a slight wrestling advantage. Additionally, Algeo likely has a technical advantage on the feet when these two are exchanging strikes. This should be a fun and competitive fight, but I’m siding with Algeo. I expect his advantages in the striking department to be greater than Browns’ will be grappling. Bill Algeo by Decision

Main Card- Starts 8:30pm EST

Rafa Garcia -260 vs Clay Guida +200

Anthony: The main card begins with a lightweight matchup of Rafa Garcia and Clay the Carpenter Guida. These midwest fans get a real treat seeing the veteran of 60 professional fights make the walk again, doing what he loves here in the year of 2023. Guida is an awkward opponent to face given his nonstop movement and high pressure attack we often see overutilized. He has made a career of walking forward and throwing everything at opponents to wear them down. This style fairs well against guys with poor wrestling and cardio, but Rafa Garcia is not quite that. The Mexican has no trouble keeping a pace or fighting wherever Guida elects to engage. He has very good boxing and much better technical skill than Guida. His wrestling credentials are not to par with Guida, but Garcia does excellent utilizing his grappling inside the cage. He boasts a 76 percent takedown defense and averages more than one takedown landed per round. I doubt he is looking to put Guida on his back but I do think most positions here will favor the younger and stronger fighter. I’d love to see Guida get his hand raised once again but Garcia appears to be the rightful favorite in this spot. Rafa Garcia by Decision
Nick: Guida is a legend of the game but he’s far past his prime. He is known for his fast-paced aggressive and high-pressure style, but he’s certainly lost a lot of the explosiveness he had back when he was a legitimate contender. Garcia is going to be the more athletic and technically sound fighter on the feet here, but I see Guida’s wrestling keeping things close. Garcia has decent offensive grappling but prefers to stand and trade. He usually comes out aggressive and he’s very dangerous early in fights, but he tends to fade in the later rounds. I expect his cardio to continue to improve as he recently shifted camps to Elevation Fight Team. Elevation is known for their excellent cardio as they train in the thin Colorado air, and I’m very impressed by Garcia’s decision to correct such a glaring hole in his game. I expect this fight to play out closer than the line suggests, but Garcia’s speed and youth should be enough for him to secure the win. Rafa Garcia by Decision

Chris Gutierrez -210 vs Pedro Munhoz +165

Anthony: Facing off next at bantamweight are Chris Gutierrez and Pedro Munhoz. I am expecting another win for Gutierrez here as he quickly climbs the ranks of this electric division. He enters 7-0-1 since joining the UFC and securing two nasty wins by finish in 2022. The striking style looks a bit similar to Munhoz, but Gutierrez is bigger and faster at this stage in their careers. He also loves to chop down the legs of his opponents using a large dose of heavy kicks. Munhoz has always been a bit reliant on the brawl and I view him reliant on the knockout to win here today. I thought the end was near for Munhoz back in 2020 but he has still looked decent in the few walks he has made to the octagon since then. Eventually the quality of his performances will drop off and against a hungry prospect like El Guapo, I’ll bet it happens here. The kicks are going to slow down Munhoz and Gutierrez will be the much more active man offensively. He is one of my favorite bets on the card today. Chris Gutierrez by Round One KO
Nick: Pedro Munhoz represents a major step up in competition for Gutierrez here. He has notable wins over Rob Font, Jimmie Rivera, and Brett Johns. He’s extremely well-rounded with a decent wrestling base and surprising power for a bantamweight. He’s coming off a controversial No Contest via eye poke vs. Sean O’Malley. A fight in which he came out strong, but was starting to fall behind until he was fouled and unable to continue. Prior to that fight he had been handed back-to-back losses to former champions in Jose Aldo and Dominick Cruz. Munhoz’s best weapon has certainly been his leg kicks, but he’d be wise to try to grapple in this match-up. Gutierrez’s greatest strength is certainly his ability to throw devastating leg kicks. More than 50% of the strikes he’s thrown in the UFC are leg kicks and he’s shown he can utilize this attack effectively against a wide range of opponents. He is 7-0-1 across his last eight fights. Munhoz’s one real advantage in this match-up is his wrestling. He has the lower and more powerful base compared to Gutierrez, but outside of his chokes/back takes he’s mostly a positional grappler. Gutierrez has a decent 73% takedown defense in the UFC, but he really hasn’t faced many wrestlers. While Munhoz certainly has a clear path to victory here, it’s tough to expect he’ll lean on that part of his game. He averages only one takedown per thirty minutes in the UFC. I expect this fight to mostly take place on the feet, where Gutierrez should be able to win on the scorecards. Chris Gutierrez by Decision

Ion Cutelaba -135 vs Tanner Boser +110

Anthony: Next is a light heavyweight contest between Ion Cutelaba and Tanner Boser. This is the most volatile fight on the main card and by far my least confident pick. Cutelaba has lost three straight appearances with each bout spanning fewer than six minutes. He is reckless in his attack whether it be striking or relentlessly chasing takedowns. The overall activity is great, Cutelaba just suffers from a shaky gas tank and questionable lapses in Fight IQ. He has been the more active fighter than Boser though, and certainly shares the cage with higher echelon competition. Given his physique Boser likely improved here during a short hiatus, I still feel him to be up against the odds nonetheless. He has more crisp striking than that of Cutelaba, but takedown defense has always been an issue for Boser. I think a desperate Cutelaba will find a finish today inside of the first five minutes. If we do see a second round, Boser likely gets his boxing going and ends up securing a win of his own. Ion Cutelaba by Round One Submission
Nick: Tanner will be moving down a weight class to 205 here from heavyweight, for the first time since he was still fighting regionally back in 2014. Boser had been struggling to defend takedowns at 265, so it is really no surprise he’s going to give it a go with a tighter frame. Cutelaba is going to come out firing here, he always does. He’s hyper aggressive with serious power and explosiveness on the feet. He’s an underrated grappler as a lifelong Greco Roman Wrestler, but he doesn’t seem to lean on that part of his game much in the majority of his fights. The likely reason for this is that his cardio is mediocre at best. He almost always seems to fade as his fights wear on and if he can’t find a KO win early he can find himself in serious trouble. He is coming off four consecutive losses for the first time in his career, and he’ll likely be cut from the roster if he can’t find a win in this match-up. If Boser can weather Cutelaba’s early storm and keep this fight on his feet, he should be able to outpoint Cutelaba and pick him apart at range. Boser has decent footwork. He’s deceptively quick and he does a good job moving in and out of his opponent’s range in striking exchanges. That being said, I’ll take a shot on Cutelaba with his back against the wall here. I expect he can ground Boser early and work him for a quick finish. Ion Cutelaba by Round One Submission

Dustin Jacoby -160 vs Azamat Murzakanov +130

Anthony: The featured bout comes at light heavyweight between Dustin Jacoby and Azamat Murzakanov. This is a very good clash between heavy handed strikers. Murzakanov is undefeated as a professional but drawing into a very tough test today. Jacoby has become a guy I love to bet on given his very steady kickboxing and general risk mitigation. He approaches fights looking to throw out consistent volume while keeping things clean, evidenced by opponents landing just 40 percent of their strikes. I love his entries into the pocket and efficiency throwing out kicks from distance. Murzakanov will struggle to find clean shots on Jacoby if this is a bout contested at kickboxing range. Murzakanov may want to consider wrestling and extensive cage work here to limit the potent offense of Jacoby. I do not agree with Rountree winning a split decision over Jacoby in his last octagon appearance. Jacoby took two rounds in that fight and if scored properly he would enter today on a ten bout unbeaten streak. While it is surely a fight either man can win I do like Jacoby as a mere -160 favorite. At 205 pounds he is the most technical striker outside of the vision’s top five. Dustin Jacoby by Decision
Nick: Murzakanov is well-rounded with surprising speed and power for his frame. He’s certainly capable of winning fights on the feet, but in this particular match-up he’d be wise to lean on his wrestling both early and often. Dustin Jacoby has excellent striking ability. A former Glory Kickboxer, he presents a diverse arsenal of kicks and he generally does a good job using them to keep his opponents at range. Jacoby has a nice jab, a strong left hook, and he has continuously shown an ability to eat punches in order to throw them. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2015. Jacoby has just a 58 percent takedown defense in the UFC, but he continues to show dramatic improvements in that facet of his game. This should be a fun and competitive match-up, but I see Jacoby mostly keeping the fight standing where he should have a clear advantage in both speed and volume. Murzakonov is dangerous, but much slower and more predictable comparatively speaking. I expect Jacoby to pull away as this fight wears on. Dustin Jacoby by Round Three KO

Billy Quarantillo -180 vs Edson Barboza +145

Anthony: The co-main event is a great featherweight scrap between Billy Quarantillo and Edson Barboza. There has been some varied success for Barboza over the past several years but the longtime UFC veteran is still without a doubt a top twenty featherweight. He has shared the cage with some elite competition and while the losses are beginning to rack up, it does not appear any of his skillset has diminished. Barboza is rather heavy on the front foot, utilizing great kickboxing and fast counters to gain the advantage in most stand up affairs. He lands with more power than Quarantillo, but I do see Barboza struggling to match the output thrown out. Quarantillo lands 7.88 significant strikes per minute with a high rate of accuracy, peppering in shots similar to the card headliner Max Holloway. He is very adept on the mat but likely to struggle against Barboza’s 75 percent takedown defense. Bryce Mitchell controlled Barboza on the mat in his last bout, but he is a much higher level wrestler when compared to both of these men. I see Quarantillo largely content standing and striking with Barboza which feels his toughest path to victory. As a sizeable favorite I do not feel confident betting on Billy Q despite a big win in his last time out. He has excellent fundamentals but I see Barboza testing him harder than ever before here over these fifteen minutes. There is value on the Brazilian at +145, landing the harder kicks and more meaningful punches. Edson Barboza by Decision
Nick: This is one of the more exciting fights on the card, and certainly a contender for Fight of the Night. Quarantillo pushes an outstanding pace. Fourteen of his seventeen professional victories have come via finish, and while he’s been known as a slow starter, he is also known for his knack for finishing fights in the later rounds. He throws a lot of volume in exchanges, he’s proven to be extremely durable, and he brings a lot of momentum into this match-up coming off an impressive comeback KO win over a tough out in Alexander Hernandez. Barboza does a good job using kicks to keep pressure on his opponents. He was an early adopter of the ever-popular leg-kick and he uses it more effectively than anyone on the roster. Barboza has an excellent job mixing in body work and setting up his punches with feints. He’s one of the best strikers in the UFC, with serious KO power in all of his limbs. Barboza has struggled at times in the UFC, but usually only against grapplers. In a match-up like this where the fight should take place standing, there is massive value on him as an underdog. Edson Barboza by Round Two KO

Max Holloway -180 vs Arnold Allen +145

Anthony: The card today ends with a massive fight at featherweight between Arnold Allen and former champion Max Holloway. After starting his UFC career a perfect 10-0, Allen is ready for this step up in competition against one of the very best. I am a big fan of Allen’s volume, awareness striking and ability to pressure forward. Controlling the dance will be key in a fight like this against an opponent in Holloway that often builds an early lead. Holloway lands more than seven significant strikes per minute on average, putting out a barrage of attacks with great boxing and crisp work to the body and legs. He lost to Alexander Volkanovski nine months ago, but nobody else has given Max trouble at 145 pounds. He has mastered this weight cut and such a long frame gives many opponents problems, especially given the frenetic pace that Holloway tends to set. He has a style built for this five round atmosphere while Allen has not yet proven to fight sustainably into rounds four and five. Allen will need to rely on calf kicks early to slow down Holloway and deaden the legs, a game plan proven to work by the champion. His best chances are finding an early sequence to finish Holloway but that appears to be a very tough task given the Hawaiian has only been stopped one time before, by Dustin Poirier. Considering some of the other odds Holloway has garnered, getting a -180 is very appealing tonight. I am backing him confidently in hopes that he turns back Allen, winning more minutes and continuing to build on his lead as this bout goes late. He is extremely durable and constantly throws out offense of his own. I think his boxing burns up Allen who will struggle to fight with his usual aggression as he gets clipped on each attempted entry. Max Holloway by Round Four KO
Nick: Holloway holds most volume striking records, not only at featherweight, but across all of the UFC. He has outstanding head movement, near flawless footwork, and against inferior strikers he’s known to put on unforgettable performances. He showed a willingness to grapple in his 2021 match-up with Yair Rodriguez, but I fully expect him to mostly stand and trade here as he looks to solidify his spot as a top contender in this division. Holloway is most recently coming off his third loss to champion, Alexander Volkanovski. That was Holloway’s worst performance of his three meetings with the champion. He has been out of action since that fight in July of 2022. Arnold Allen has a solid wrestling base and creative submission ability, but he has struggled at times keeping his opponents grounded. He’s a talented striker who does an excellent job keeping pressure on his opponents. Most of his fights are won on the feet, but he’s shown a well-rounded overall game and he comes into this match-up having won ten consecutive fights under the UFC banner. Holloway has an 84% takedown defense and Allen only averages just over one takedown per fifteen minutes. I expect he’ll look to lean on his grappling here, but I don’t expect he’ll have much success in that regard. Holloway lands more than seven significant strikes per minute and he absorbs less than five. Allen lands just over three significant strikes per minute, so it’s tough to expect he’ll be able to keep up with Holloways pace and pressure in this match-up. This should be competitive early, but I expect Holloways’ pressure and volume to break Allen down as this fight gets into the later rounds. Holloway should have a considerable cardio advantage in this matchup. Allen is good, but Holloway is simply on another level. Max Holloway by Round Four KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com