With the Super Bowl behind us, teams are forced to move on from the 2022 season and look towards 2023. In a series of articles, we will recap the past season, and look at how teams are positioned at their skill positions for next September.
Green Bay Packers
Current Available Cap Space: $24.514 Million
Upcoming Draft Picks: Round 1 (15th), Round 2 (45th), Round 3 (78th), Round 4 (116th), Round 5 (149th, 170th), Round 7 (232nd, 235th, 242nd, 256th)
The Green Bay Packers had a disappointing season in 2022, failing to make the playoffs largely due to a 5 game losing streak in which the offense was completely out of sync. Meanwhile their defense took over half the season to gel before they even began to approach preseason expectations.
The team spent the early part of this offseason waiting for franchise quarterback Aaron Rodgers to make a decision on his playing future, and are now working on finalizing a deal with the New York Jets after Rodgers made it public that it’s his desired destination. Unfortunately, without knowing the return and how many contracts the Packers will have to take back to make the deal work, in addition to their self inflicted cap problems, they have been fairly hamstrung thus far in free agency.
There are some intriguing young pieces on the roster, but overall the offense has too many holes to fill for it to be fixed this late in the offseason, while the defense has to reset after a number of underwhelming performances in 2022.
Coaching:
Matt Lafleur began his tenure in Green Bay with 3 straight 13 win seasons, 3 NFC north crowns and 2 conference championship appearances, guiding Aaron Rodgers to back to back MVP seasons. That stretch coincided with the hiring of Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator, who had a good relationship with their strong willed quarterback.
Without Hackett, there seemed to be a disconnect between Rodgers and Lafleur, particularly during the 5 game losing streak. The team also had a chance to make the playoffs in the final game of the season, taking on a Lions team who had nothing to play for, only to be thoroughly outplayed and out coached.
Lafleur, who had control of the play calling in 2022, had all the pieces on offense to build around the run and play action, yet seemed content to continue to allow Aaron Rodgers to air it out, despite no cohesion between himself and the wide receivers early on in the season. With Rodgers (theoretically) gone this year, Lafleur will have to take back control of this team if he wants to keep his job moving forward.
The Packers promoted former offensive line coach Adam Stenavich to replace Hackett for the 2022 season after building a strong reputation for his work with the Green Bay linemen. The potential for a strong run game behind their offensive line was there, especially with the two headed monster of AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones. But without any play calling responsibilities, Stenavich couldn’t do much this past season to help improve the fate of the Packers. He’s a strong coach, and should be given more leeway with the offense this coming season as Lafleur hopefully takes a step back and the removal of Rodgers from the room allows his coaches do their jobs without as much pushback from the players.
It’s hard to find a Packers fan who is willing to defend the hiring and retention of current Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry. Barry was brought onboard prior to the 2021 season after spending 2 years in Detroit and Washington as defensive coordinator.
Unfortunately, only his last season in Washington could be considered a positive addition on his resume. Barry has a tendency to coach up his defense to 4 or 5 good games a season where they look like they could be a top 5 group in the NFL, but then look absolutely lost and out of sync for the remaining slate.
When healthy, the Packers defense has 6 first round picks, so the talent is there. GM Brian Gutekunst has given Barry players that would excel in an aggressive, in your face defense, but he continues to utilize a bland defensive scheme and doesn’t utilize his players to their full abilities. He tried to force Rasual Douglas into playing as a nickel corner for far too long at the start of the season, and waited almost the whole year to allow Jaire Alexander to play the press man defense that made him one of the best cornerbacks in the league. Many cheeseheads are wondering how he’s returning for another campaign in 2023, but it’s safe to assume that the leash will be short this year.
Quarterbacks:
Much has already been said about the Aaron Rodgers situation. He’s a Packers legend, and is no doubt a hall of famer. With all the turmoil on and off the field, it’s hard to remember that he’s just one season away from winning a second consecutive MVP award. But all good things must come to an end, and it’s clear that both player and organization are ready to move on.
Thus, presumably, begins the Jordan Love era. Love, who was selected in the first round of the 2020 draft, was a surprise pick as the Packers seemed to be on the verge of making another run at the Super Bowl if they could just find more offensive weapons for Rodgers.
Instead, Gutekunst opted to take his quarterback of the future. Three years later, we have yet to learn what Love is as an NFL quarterback. Love is just as, if not more, athletic as Rodgers was in his prime, and has the stature that NFL GM’s look for in a franchise QB at 6’4’’ and 225 lbs. He has very limited in game action in the NFL, as one would assume, but by all accounts has been a consummate professional off the field after being put into a difficult situation being drafted as the heir to Rodgers’ throne.
He played well, albeit in one quarter, this past season against a very tough Eagles team, which is giving cheeseheads hope that he can step in and play at the next level. If Lafleur and Stenavich tailor their offense to ease Love into the rigors of being a full time starter by focusing on the run game and seeing what that opens up on play actions, Love certainly has the potential and pedigree to be able to step in without too much of a drop-off from what Rodgers displayed this past season. The Packers also have to make a decision on Love’s 5th year option, so there’s a lot riding on the decisions management will be forced to make on a limited sample size.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:
For the second offseason in a row, the Packers will be losing their top receiver after Allen Lazard preemptively signed with the New York Jets to continue to play with Aaron Rodgers. Many scouts have the Packers using their 1st round pick to select a receiver in the upcoming draft to compliment whatever remaining talent they have left on the roster, but they might need more than just one first round rookie to come in and improve the fortunes of their passing game.
Christian Watson, like most of the rookie receivers in Green Bay, got off to a shaky start in 2022, as Rodgers wasn’t complimentary of their play, route running or off field work habits. He sat for 3 of the first 7 weeks due to injury, and wasn’t deemed a starter in 3 additional weeks after cracking the starting lineup in week 1.
From week 10 on, Watson was a whole different receiver. He showed a home run ability that wasn’t there in the first half of the season after breaking out in week 10 with a shocking 107 yard 3 touchdown performance. He would crack 100 yards 2 more times over the remainder of the season, but it was his presence as a downfield threat that changed how defenses were forced to play the Packers that was his biggest contribution to the offense. While Watson isn’t a typical #1 receiver, he can absolutely be a game changer for the Packers going forward.
Fellow rookie receiver Romeo Doubs received plenty of praise for his work in preseason games and training camp, but failed to show much once the regular season came around. He, like Watson, also missed time with injuries, but failed to have a breakout game, with his season high receiving yards set at 73.
In hindsight, it was a lot to ask the former 4th round pick to step into the NFL and produce at a high level, so finishing the season with over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns in 13 games isn’t terrible production by any means. With uncertainty surrounding the wide receiver room entering the 2023 season, there’s a possibility of Doubs carving out a more significant role for himself with the rebuilding club, but expectations should be tempered for the sure handed sophomore going forward.
After those two receivers, there isn’t much left on the depth chart. Samori Toure got some valuable reps last season, but he was a 7th round pick and until he adds more strength to his 6’1’’ 191 lb frame, he will have a hard time carving out an every down role in the NFL. Without any veteran additions to the room up to this point, it isn’t hard to see why wide receiver is a top priority entering the draft.
Another position that the Packers will likely be looking to improve upon at the draft is tight end, as they essentially have no NFL starters left on the roster. Robert Tonyan moved on to the division rival Chicago Bears after a fairly disappointing season, totalling just 470 yards and 2 touchdowns while playing in all 17 games. Backup Marcedes Lewis, a 17 year veteran, is a free agent, and is reportedly on Aaron Rodgers’ list of requested players to join him in New York.
That leaves 2020 3rd round pick Josiah Deguara as the defacto #1 TE on the depth chart, which isn’t ideal. Deguara is the type of player that every team would like to have on their roster, as he is a good special teamer and is already known for his gritty play and above average blocking. However, despite having decent hands, he has a small catch radius, lacks high end speed and isn’t a polished enough route runner to be a true starting tight end.
If the Packers want Love to succeed as a passer in 2023, they’re going to have to find a way to get him some more weapons on offense, or else he will be looking at a long season despite what kind of progress he has made.
Running Backs:
The Packers will return their 2 headed monster at running back as Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will both be back in 2023. There was a possibility of Jones being a cap casualty after the 2022 campaign, but instead he restructured his contract to give the Packers some extra cap space for the opportunity to return for another year. The Packers run game as a whole was only able to score 12 total touchdowns all season, as teams were able to stack the box in the red zone with no real red zone receiving threat to back defenses off, so that is a major problem that needs to be solved in 2023.
Jones was only able to score 2 of those touchdowns, but he finished the season with 1,121 yards rushing and 5.3 yards per carry, both career highs. He was also the 2nd most targeted receiver on the team, and caught 81.9% of his targets. The 28 year old will give Love a reliable check down option in his first season as starter.
Jones is one of the most dynamic backs in the league, finishing 6th in rushes of 10 or more yards, but also isn’t afraid to run in the trenches, despite his 5 ‘9’’ 208 lb frame. Although that did lead to him having the 2nd most fumbles amongst running backs over the course of the season with 5. While he didn’t miss a game all year, it was clear on many occasions he was on a snap count as he dealt with nagging injuries all season long. At 28 years old, it’s hard to predict how much longer Jones will be able to perform at this high of a level, so having Dillon to spell him will be imperative to him continuing to perform at this pace.
Dillon, for his part, didn’t exceed expectations by any means. He finished the year with a disappointing 4.1 yards per carry, and seemed to regress in the passing game, dropping his yards per completion from 9.2 to 7.4 and his catch percentage from 91.9% to 65.1% from 2021 to 2022. Dillon seemed to lose the playmaking ability he showed in 2021, and at times if the play wasn’t blocked perfectly, he would struggle to create something for himself. He’s entering the final year of his rookie contract, and if he’s looking to cash in, whether it be with Green Bay or somewhere else, he has to be more than just a bruising short yardage back this coming season. It will be tough, as the passing game in Green Bay will be suspect, but if he can break out of a few more tackles per game than he did in 2022, at only 24 years old he could be in line for a nice payday.
Offensive Line:
The Packers are looking for both quantity and quality heading into training camp, as they currently have 13 offensive lineman signed to a contract for the 2023 season. They have a nice blend of veterans and youth, which will be crucial in both the development and protection of Jordan Love, and allow the Packers to finally move their offensive focus to the run.
The left side of the line seems to be locked in, with left tackle David Bakhtiari and left guard Elgton Jenkins returning for 2023. Bakhtiari, when healthy, is one of the premier left tackles in the league. However he tore his ACL in November of 2020 (yet still made the all-pro team that season), and had multiple surgeries to be able to return. He missed 6 games this past season, but 3 of those were due to an emergency appendectomy, which won’t be a recurring issue.
In the games he did suit up for, Bakhtiari was one of 3 tackles who took part in at least 300 snaps to not allow a sack, and finished 4th in pass blocking efficiency. Despite turning 31 this past season, Bakhtiari is still playing at an elite level, and is entering the offseason with no surgeries planned, meaning he’ll be able to focus on training rather than rehab for the first time in a couple years.
Jenkins, who was also coming off of a torn ACL, started the season in week 2 at right tackle, and predictably got off to a slow start, giving up 2 sacks and 12 total pressures over 5 games. Considering he has only given up 3 sacks in his career to that point, there was cause for concern. That is, until he was moved back to left guard. It seems it just took him some time to shake off the rust, as across the final 10 games he gave up just 1 sack and 5 pressures, all while continuing to be a dominant force in the run game.
At center, 2021 2nd round pick Josh Meyers has taken over the starting role with mixed results. It hurts that the Packers selected him over all-pro center Creed Humphrey, but that can’t be held against him. His play on the field doesn’t live up to his draft pedigree however, as he grades as a slightly above average pass blocker but has been a liability in the run game. He’s a very talented player that needs to use this offseason to learn from his first season as a full time starter and deliver a more consistent performance, otherwise one of the younger lineman will be looking to steal the job out from under him.
One player who was hurt by Jenkins’ move to left guard was Jon Runyan, who struggled with the switch from left to right guard after having never played the position before. All 3 of his sacks and 17 pressures given up happened from week 7 on, after the swap was made. Runyan was just a 6th round pick in 2020, and asking him to make a midseason switch to a brand new position and expecting high end results is a little unfair. With an offseason to take the time to learn the position, Runyan should be fine heading into 2023.
Yosuah Nijman was another casualty of the line swaps, as he began the season at left tackle for Bakhtiari but moved to right tackle once he returned to the lineup. Again, he struggled with the transition, but like Runyan, Nijman has outplayed his projections, as he came into the league as an undrafted free agent.
If either Nijman or Runyan, or potentially even Meyers, struggle to start the season, Zach Tom seems to be champing at the bit to earn more playing time. He started games at left tackle, left guard, and got considerable playing time at right tackle as well. He’s a bit undersized to be a full time tackle in the NFL, and will need to add some strength to be a full time guard, but with an offseason with NFL level strength and conditioning coaches, that shouldn’t be a big issue. He was a true swiss army knife for the Packers this season filling in wherever needed, which is the type of player every coach would love to have.
Beyond those 6, the Packers have an array of young talent that have either yet to pan out, or have yet to get onto the field due to injury, but playing time will be hard to come by. It will be a fierce competition for the linemen in this coming training camp. The offensive line of the Packers is most certainly the strength of the team, and now it’s up to the coaching staff, particularly Stenavich, to find a rotation that works for each player’s skill set.
Defense:
The Packers entered 2022 looking to have one of the top 5 defenses in the league, but, partly due to coaching, failed to meet those expectations.
The problems began in the trenches, as the Packers signed Jarren Reed to a one year deal and drafted Devonte Wyatt in the 1st round to join Kenny Clark and Dean Lowry along the defensive interior to help their deficiencies against the run. Reed was just average this season, while Clark seemed to have lost a step and wasn’t the dominant force Packers fans have become accustomed to.
Lowry in particular was a disappointment all season long, ended the season on IR, and has since moved on in free agency. Wyatt wasn’t trusted to handle many snaps early on, but was clearly the better player once he got significant playing time following the Lowry injury. The team can hope for continued improvement from Lowry, but with Reed also moving on in free agency, the team will certainly be looking to bolster their defensive front.
At the edge, the Packers still have Preston Smith and Rashan Gary for 2023, but Gary is still making his way back from a torn ACL suffered in week 9 and is unlikely to be available to start the season. Up until the injury, Gary had been one of the more dominant pass rushers in the NFL, and without him the unit struggled to maintain any type of quarterback pressure.
Rookie Kingsley Enagbare and Justin Hollins, who was a waiver wire pickup, were each asked to step into bigger roles, but both dealt with inconsistencies throughout the season in the expanded roles. Accounting for injuries is tough, but without Gary to lead this unit, they’ll be looking for major leaps from their unproven pass rushers.
At inside linebacker, the Packers signed De’Vondre Campbell to a 5 year $50 million deal after his breakout all-pro season in 2021. It was almost impossible to live up to the standard he set that season, and despite his best efforts, he underperformed before missing time due to a knee injury. Even after missing 4 games, Campbell was charged with 11 missed tackles, after only missing 4 all of 2021. Other than that, he managed to match his interception total of 2, and his tackles for loss at 6, so all wasn’t doom and gloom in 2022. The captain of the defense should be ready to dominate again in 2023.
The Packers spent both of their 1st round picks on defense, with the 2nd going to select linebacker Quay Walker, doubling down on the team’s investment at the position. Walker led the team with 119 tackles, with 1.5 sacks and 5 tackles for loss. He also defended 7 passes and forced 3 fumbles for good measure. When Campbell sat out for 4 games, Walker was the defensive play caller, showing how much faith the team has in his leadership capabilities, along with his skills on the field. He did have a slightly elevated missed tackle percentage, and will have to control his temper after getting kicked out of 2 games in his rookie season, but the sky’s the limit for this starting linebacker duo.
The cornerback position on paper was to be a strength of the team, but as mentioned, they were mismanaged for much of the season. Jaire Alexander, who the Packers made the highest paid cornerback in NFL history, had an up and down year in 2022. He was particularly dominant in a week 17 matchup against Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota Vikings, showing what he can do matched up one on one with the opposing team’s top receiver. Alexander finished as the 8th overall cornerback statistically in the entire league, but fans are largely disappointed in his season overall. He will look to take back the crown of the league’s best cornerback in 2023.
Rasul Douglas had an excellent season in 2021, and the Packers rewarded him by signing him to a 3 year $21 million deal. Unfortunately he regressed back his career averages, which aren’t awful, but also aren’t spectacular. The veteran cornerback is a true team player, and didn’t complain while being asked to play slot corner to begin the season, despite never playing the position before. He’s also one of very few starting cornerbacks who regularly plays on special teams, again showing his willingness to put the team first.
He plays on the edge, and tends to cross it a little too often, as he finished the season with 7 penalties, one that led to a chip shot field goal for the Lions in a critical week 18 matchup. The Packers are tied to Douglas for the time being, and have to hope that the performance he put on in 2021 wasn’t just a farce.
Eric Stokes was expected to be the third leg of the cornerback trio that would rival any in the league after breaking out in 2021, finishing 4th in completion percentage and 23rd in passer rating in his first season in the league. Unfortunately for him, Stokes almost rewrote the definition of sophomore slump. His allowed completion percentage jumped up to 84%, with a 125.4 passer rating and a yards per target of 10.8. He doubled almost every statistical defensive category in the wrong direction, and then to add injury to insult, suffered a season ending injury in week 9. Stokes is way too talented for this type of play to continue, so after a humbling 2nd season, look for him to rebound in 2023.
At safety, again, the team looked good on paper with Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage as the starters. However Amos was consistently a step too slow in 2022, and as a free agent, has yet to sign a new deal with any club for 2023.
Savage, who looked like a potential star in his rookie year, was demoted twice throughout the season, and without being in position to defend passes, his inability to tackle was showcased throughout the season. Out of the 89 qualifying safeties in 2022, Amos ranked 82nd and Savage came in at 88th, per PFF. The team needs Savage to turn it around in his contract year, as well as pull a rabbit out of the hat to fill the other safety position, because they have no one on the roster ready to take over full time duties.
The Green Bay Packers have spent years maintaining a championship calibre club while paying Rodgers a significant amount of their salary cap and succumbing to his whims. With “his” decision to move on, the franchise can start to look at what their future holds, as they clearly don’t have a roster, or coaching staff, that’s capable of competing for a playoff spot this coming season.
They should look to spend their 2023 draft picks on high end offensive talents to either assist the development of Love, or, more likely, insulate their next franchise quarterback that they will draft with what will likely be a top 10 pick in 2024. Financially, they still have some work to do, but once they’re able to move on from Rodgers, as well as a few recent contracts that haven’t aged well, they won’t be far away from being contenders once again.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @Devgallant
Photo: Schik8337. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.