With the 2022-23 regular season officially in the rear-view mirror, all eyes in Ottawa are on the cat.
Alex DeBrincat is officially a Restricted Free Agent with his rights set to expire during the 2024 off-season. From the minute he was traded to Ottawa, the idea was to try to get a long-term deal done. DeBrincat fits in with the age group of this core, and his reputation as a goal scorer was exactly what the Senators needed.
But after a somewhat disappointing season for DeBrincat scoring wise, the debate about what to pay him has picked up steam. His contract includes a $9 million qualifying offer, which if extended would be the salary of a potential 1-year deal.
The risk involved is obviously that DeBrincat can just walk free in 2024, leaving the Sens with nothing. The consensus among Senators fans has been that they absolutely cannot go into next season without having DeBrincat locked up beyond 2024:
Just tossing it out there:
Is bringing back Alex DeBrincat on his 1-year QO 100% off the table for everyone?
Explain below⬇️⬇️
— Jack Richardson (@jackrichrdson) April 15, 2023
But would it really be the end of the world?
Obviously, finding a way to keep DeBrincat beyond 2024 should be the priority. But let’s explore what it might look like if he makes it clear that he will not be signing a long-term deal in Ottawa.
The consensus seems to be that the Senators need to have some sort of plan for him around the draft. If they wait longer than that, DeBrincat will have the option to just wait for an arbitration hearing in August and sign a 1-year deal.
The knee-jerk response most fans have if he doesn’t want to stay is to trade him. But then the biggest question becomes what are you trading him for?
Every Senators player at the year-end media session emphasized how the team is ready to take the next step into playoffs. If they move DeBrincat, it will be hard to replace the value he brought with a single trade. Therefore it would ultimately make the Senators a weaker team going into 2023-24, creating a massive hole in their top 6.
Prospects like Egor Sokolov, Ridly Greig, or Roby Jarventie could certainly fill the role, but relying on rookies to log important minutes like that is a big ask. Some might think replacing DeBrincat’s 66 points would be the problem, but consider this as well: the Senators finished 18th in the NHL in goals per game in 2022-23.
Another priority this summer is finding effective depth scoring. So if DeBrincat is traded for picks and prospects, the Senators need to replace his offence as well as improve the 3rd and 4th lines.
The other reason why bringing back DeBrincat on a 1-year-deal wouldn’t be the end of the world is because of the unbelievable pressure the Senators will be facing going into next season.
I wrote about how the Senators absolutely have to be a playoff team in 2024, and moving DeBrincat would all but certainly be a step backwards for the team in 2023-24. I fear the excuses that will be made if they’re forced to trade him and the Senators stumble out of the gate again.
The worst-case scenario is the Sens lose him for nothing in the summer of 2024. But if they make the playoffs with him on the roster next season, would it really be seen as a failure?
Almost everything is in place for this team to start contending, but the final domino to fall is Alex DeBrincat’s future.
-Jack Richardson
Twitter: @Jackrichrdson
Photo: Jenn G. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.