The benching just won’t stop. Hours after it was announced that the New York Jets would be benching Zach Wilson for their game against the Chicago Bears, news broke that the Houston Texans would be benching Davis Mills in favour of Kyle Allen. While the Jets have professed that Zach Wilson still has a part to play with the Jets franchise, it’s likely that the Texans are moving on from Mills long term.
Mills was drafted by the Texans in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Compared to the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and the other three quarterbacks drafted in the first round, Mills was an afterthought. He didn’t flash with arm strength, exceptional mobility, or off-script creativity. He was a quarterback who, in college, won with having decent tendencies across the board and his ability to target the intermediate areas of the field. Those attributes would translate to a backup quarterback in the NFL, but if given the chance, Mills would look to push for a starting job.
The Texans quarterback situation wasn’t set in stone upon Mills’ arrival. In fact, it was much the opposite. With Deshaun Watson suspended for the season due to sexual misconduct allegations, the Texans brought in Tyrod Taylor to fill in as the starter until an injury in Week 2. That thrust Mills into the starting role for a few weeks and then again once Taylor was benched in Week 13. Mills filled in admirably, showing poise and confidence as he gave the Texans an offseason dilemma.
Would they roll the dice on another quarterback in the draft or allow Mills to find his feet as a full time starter in 2022? If it didn’t work, the Texans would have ample draft capital to explore other options thanks to a trade that sent Watson to the Cleveland Browns. Rightly, the Texans took the latter option. Mills had shown that he was capable, and at the very least, deserving of another look. He would need to improve in certain areas such as his navigation of the pocket, and would need to be more aggressive targeting downfield, but he had earned the opportunity to show a little bit more.
It hasn’t panned out in 2022. Mills hasn’t demonstrated the desired improvement that the Texans’ front office anticipated. He’s completed 62 percent of his passes for 2144 yards, 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and is 31st out of 31 quarterbacks in EPA per drop back this season, per RBSDM. His ability to effectively navigate the pocket and handle pressure has completely deteriorated, something an average amount of arm talent and lack of mobility just can’t make up for.
Lovie Smith was left with no choice but to bench Mills for Allen, and while it could be a temporary move just to give Mills a chance to reset, it’s likely that it’s a permanent decision. Based on what we’ve seen this season, and what we already knew, Mills had a low ceiling as a quarterback prospect. A scenario where he breaks out as a franchise quarterback has probably passed us by, and given where the Texans first round pick ends up this season, they should have other ambitions in the form of Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud.
Both young quarterbacks will be top 3 or 4 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, for good reason, and have the chance to become franchise quarterbacks overnight. Stroud is a deft pocket passer who can dice up defenses with his arm, and Young just consistently finds a way to make plays despite his size. The Texans are projected to have the first pick in the 2023 draft and will have their pick of the bunch. Passing up on that opportunity would be a cardinal sin for a team in desperate need of talent.
Mills was able to come in and give the Texans a little bit of hope over the last year and should still be a serviceable backup for the team for the next few seasons, but the team should be fixated on drafting one of the top two guys next April.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: Tennessee Titans. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.