3 Off-Season Predictions Ahead of 2022 Winter Meetings
The off-season has been progressing slowly thus far, but with the first in-person winter meetings since 2019 beginning on Sunday, things should pick up relatively soon.
The top baseball executives will gather in San Diego for what’s expected to be a lively couple of days on the west coast, which was previously the case before COVID-19 as the lockout greatly impacted the last two winters. But things are back to normal this time around.
Unlike last year, front offices across the league can negotiate with free agents and discuss potential trades with other franchises – two aspects that weren’t allowed during the owner-imposed lockout.
So, with that in mind, here are three predictions that could unfold during next week’s winter meetings:
Aaron Judge Re-Signs With Yankees
Where will Judge land this off-season? That remains the biggest unanswered question throughout the industry, though the 2022 American League MVP is reportedly nearing his final decision. And at this rate, it’d be shocking if he didn’t re-sign with the New York Yankees.
The 30-year-old has already met with the Yankees and San Francisco Giants this winter, with the Los Angeles Dodgers rumoured to be a potential suitor, as well. But, according to a recent report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the Bronx Bombers remain the front-runners with their latest offer in the eight-year, $300-million range.
Passan also notes that the Yankees are willing to increase that figure if needed as general manager Brian Cashman remains determined to retain his franchise star.
Without Judge, New York likely wouldn’t have captured its 20th AL East Division title last season – or may have missed the playoffs entirely. So management should be very aggressive in its efforts to sign the towering 6-foot-7 slugger long-term.
Based on the Yankees’ most recent offer, the right-hander appears poised to surpass Mike Trout’s $36 million AAV (average annual value), which would set a new record for position players in that department. And if his price-point skyrockets even further, he may end up besting Max Scherzer’s record AAV of $43.3 million.
The four-time All-Star also has a chance to fetch the largest guaranteed contract for a free agent in MLB history, which currently belongs to Bryce Harper at $330 million.
Of course, whatever Judge’s final number proves to be, it’ll dramatically outmatch the seven-year, $213.5-million offer he declined prior to the 2022 campaign. It’s safe to say that betting on himself has worked out quite well.
Judge blasted 62 home runs in 157 games with the Yankees, breaking Roger Maris’ long-standing AL record. He also led the majors in RBIs (131), OBP (.425), SLG (.686), ISO (.375), wOBA (.458), wRC+ (.207) and fWAR (11.4), according to FanGraphs.
Adding to his historic performance, the Yankees’ slugger also ranked in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity (95.9 m.p.h.), hard-hit rate (61.8 percent), barrel rate (26.5 percent), xSLG (.706) and xwOBA (.463).
Not to mention, Judge assumed much larger responsibilities in the outfield, logging a career-high 632.2 innings in centre while playing 491.2 in right. And he provided above-average defence at both positions, too.
The Yankees would simply be lost without No. 99, which is why they can’t afford to let him walk out the door.
Blue Jays Land Carlos Rodón in Free Agency
Following a disappointing end to last season, the Toronto Blue Jays are looking to improve their roster in multiple ways this winter, and adding Rodón to the starting rotation would definitely help in that regard.
With free agent Ross Stripling likely signing elsewhere, the team must acquire at least one starting pitcher – probably two – to complement their trio of Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and José Berríos.
Toronto saved roughly $20 million by parting ways with Teoscar Hernández, Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer. That also weakened their outfield depth, which requires addressing, but it provided the franchise with additional free-agent dollars. That could allow them to shop in the upper tier of the starting pitching market.
The Blue Jays will undoubtedly push hard for Justin Verlander, just like they did last off-season. But if the 39-year-old proves overly expensive, shifting to Rodón wouldn’t be a terrible idea, as he’s coming off a career year with the Giants.
After spending seven seasons with the Chicago White Sox, the 29-year-old surprisingly entered free agency without being tied to a qualifying offer last winter and ultimately bet on himself by leaving for the west coast. And his decision couldn’t have worked out any better.
Rodón logged career-highs in starts (31) and innings pitched (178.0), posting a 2.88 ERA, a 2.64 xERA and a 2.25 FIP with San Francisco. The left-hander was also worth a career-best 6.2 fWAR, good for second in the majors among qualified starters.
Additionally, the 6-foot-3 hurler also finished first in FIP, tied for second in strikeout-to-walk rate difference (26.1 percent), third in FIP- (60) and tied for eighth in OPP AVG (.200). His whiff (31.2 percent) and chase rates (31.2 percent) also ranked in the 86th and 68th percentiles, respectively.
There are previous injury concerns with Rodón as he battled shoulder and elbow issues from 2017-21, limiting him to 70 innings or fewer in three of those five seasons. He also hadn’t eclipsed 150 innings more than once prior to 2022.
That’s something the Blue Jays will have to take into account. But considering he avoided the injury bug last season, there’s reason to believe that the veteran lefty can stay healthy throughout a full 162-game schedule.
Many experts, however, are confident that Rodón will sign for at least five years at $130 million, carrying a $26 million AAV. Based on the current market, though, that seems like the going rate for a top-tier starting pitcher these days.
Still, even at that cost, Rodón would be well-worth his asking price.
Athletics Trade Sean Murphy to Guardians
Everyday catchers are like reliable quarterbacks in the National Football League – there simply aren’t enough of them. But between free agency and the trade market, several quality backstops could change teams this winter, including Murphy.
The Oakland Athletics are expected to continue selling off assets this winter, and after top catching prospect Shea Langeliers – who was part of the return from last off-season’s Matt Olson trade – debuted in 2022, Murphy’s days with the franchise are likely numbered.
It’s a little surprising that the 28-year-old wasn’t dealt last season, especially with many former teammates traded immediately after the lockout ended in March. But if there’s one team that stands out the most as a potential suitor, it’s probably the Cleveland Guardians.
The Guardians currently have just two catchers on their 40-man roster: Bryan Lavastida and Bo Naylor. And, at this stage of their careers, neither backstop is likely ready to assume a full-time role at the big-league level in 2023.
It also doesn’t help that the team received insufficient offensive production from that position a season ago, ranking 29th in wRC+ (55) and 30th in Offensive WAR (-35.1) across the majors. So if anyone would benefit from acquiring Murphy, it’s them.
Murphy is coming off another solid performance at the plate, hitting .250/.332/.426 with 18 home runs and 66 RBIs over 148 games with the Athletics. The right-hander also posted a 122 wRC+ and was worth a career-high 13.8 Offensive WAR.
The 6-foot-3 catcher – who remains under team control through 2025 – also grades well defensively as his pop time (1.89 seconds to second base) and pitch framing (+9 catcher framing runs, 49.7 percent strike rate) ranked in the 96th and 86th percentiles, respectively.
Cleveland has historically leaned more toward defensive catchers, but the team has rarely featured a two-way performer behind the plate. That could change with one phone call to Oakland, though.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: DR Buddie. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.