UFC Vegas 65 Preview & Betting Guide

UFC Vegas 65: Lewis vs Spivak – 11.19.2022 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 65: Lewis vs Spivak. After a massive pay-per-view last weekend the promotion is back at home for a fun slate of daytime fights. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 289-169-2 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 288-170-2 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 11-18-2022 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 1:00pm EST

Natalia Silva -170 vs Tereza Bleda +140

Anthony: The card today opens with a fight at women’s flyweight between Natalia Silva and Tereza Bleda. This is very much a contest between striker and grappler as Bleda will be attempting to get this fight to the mat. She is an undefeated fighter who has tremendous size and strength. Her nickname is Ronda because of her success utilizing judo and wrestling to dominate opponents. At just 20 years of age she has an incredibly high ceiling but she first needs to perform here today. I anticipate a safe gameplan by Bleda and her team, making it a priority to stay out of striking exchanges. Silva is the much more technical fighter on the feet and her defensive grappling is rather solid. It is sensible that Silva is favoured here but I do think this fight plays out closer to what the odds suggest. I’ll take Bleda as the underdog. Tereza Bleda by Decision
Nick: Silva is primarily a grappler, with seven of her thirteen professional wins coming via submission. She is coming off an impressive win in her UFC debut over Jasmine Jasudavicius, a fight in which she pulled out the decision as a +200 underdog. Prior to her debut, she had been coming off a string of submission wins for Jungle Fight in Brazil. She hasn’t lost a fight since she fell to top contender Marina Rodriguez back in 2017, and it seems she’s made dramatic improvements over the past few years. Tereza Bleda will be making her UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win over Nayara Maia. She did enough to win in that spot, but many were surprised she was awarded a contract for a fairly lacklustre performance. Bleda should have a wrestling advantage here, but she’ll need to be careful not to spend too much time in Silva’s guard. This is an extremely low confidence play, but I’m siding with Silva. She should be the better striker in this match-up and her BJJ should be enough to keep Bleda from grounding her consistently. Natalia Silva by Decision

Brady Heistand -180 vs Fernie Garcia +145

Anthony: Next is a matchup at bantamweight between Fernie Garcia and Brady Heistand. Both are thus far winless inside of the UFC but there is certainly some potential in each of them. Heistand is a particularly intriguing prospect at just 23 years of age. His wrestling and control grappling is excellent but he still has a ways to go in terms of blending the martial arts. While his fight against Ricky Turcios was an all-time classic, Heistand was far too willing to exchange striking on the feet despite his decisive advantage when the bout hit the mat. Facing another striker here makes me fairly confident in his chances of getting a victory. Heistand landed two takedowns each round against Turcios and Garcia appears less adept than him at defending shots. Garcia is a heavy pressure striker with the advantage boxing. The line has moved out of his favour largely due to the stylistic clash people expect to see. Heistand is my pick to win this fight but I do not think he is a smart bet at this closing number. Brady Heistand by Round Two Submission
Nick: Heistand is still a developing prospect, but his wrestling is very advanced. He has explosive hips and he does a good job holding inferior opponents in position. Heistand will have a grappling advantage here, and I expect he might be able to control position fairly well on Garcia who is primarily a striker. Garcia is a pressure style boxer who does his best work on the feet. He’s a BJJ purple belt, but there is no denying he is most comfortable fighting at striking range. Garcia is coming off a loss in his UFC debut to a lower-level opponent in Journey Newsome. Garcia is going to be the aggressor here, but that is likely to play into Heistand’s superior wrestling abilities. This is a low-level match-up so I don’t suggest investing heavy either way, but Heistand is the rightful favourite. He should be able to lean on his grappling here as he dictates the way this match-up plays out. Brady Heistand by Decision

Maria Oliveira -110 vs Vanessa Demopoulos -110

Anthony: This is an interesting fight at women’s strawweight as Maria Oliveira is set to face Vanessa Demopoulos. I like the activity from both girls since joining the UFC. Demopoulos became a professional later in life than Oliveira but it does seem her best performances may still be ahead of her. She has won two bouts already this year facing Silvana Gomez Juarez and Jinh Yu Frey. This matchup is tougher stylistically for Demopoulous facing someone so much bigger and longer. Oliveira benefits from a seven-inch reach advantage here today. Working at kickboxing range I can see Oliveira finding a lot of success. Demopoulos will need to close distance often with her 1-2 and mix in takedowns to win minutes against a superior striker. It is hard to feel confident on either side here but at pick em odds I will be going Demopoulos. Her wrestling and offensive jiu jitsu should be the factor deciding this one. Vanessa Demopoulos by Decision
Nick: Oliveira is durable, but she absorbs more than five significant strikes per minute. She is coming off a split decision win over Gloria de Paula, a very close fight in which she pulled off the upset as a +210 underdog. Demopoulos was recently awarded her BJJ blackbelt. She has a powerful wrestling base, showing enough ability to score takedowns against lower level opponents. She can be an effective striker, but her defense is questionable at best. She eats a lot of shots against higher-volume strikers, and offensively she often leaves herself open to counter shots. If Oliveira can keep this fight standing I expect she can cruise to a win here. However, I’m not confident in her ability to do so. It seems more likely Demopoulos can close distance and then find the takedowns she needs to secure another submission win. Vanessa Demopoulos by Round Two Submission

Ricky Turcios -170 vs Kevin Natividad +135

Anthony: Here we have a bantamweight scrap between Ricky Turcios and Kevin Natividad. I struggle to give a confident prediction for this bout after watching Turcios’ most recent performance. The Ultimate Fighter winner was extremely hesitant and reactive in a matchup against Aiemann Zahabi that saw him take his first UFC loss. Normally Turcios can be expected to strike intelligently, setting up his opponents and placing big shots as needed. He is serviceable everywhere and a very complete martial artist, I just worry about him putting it all together when facing up echelon foes. I will pick Turcios here largely because of the quality of opponent he is drawing. Natividad has been knocked out in two straight fights and really has not looked himself since getting into the promotion. He has some wrestling that could pose issues to Turcious at times but I do not see him getting held down for the better part of fifteen minutes. The striking of Turcios should be enough to earn this victory if the finish does not present itself. Ricky Turcios by Decision
Nick: Turcios is a highly aggressive and an extremely creative striker. He’s solid in scrambles as well, but he finds most of his success in the middle of the cage just striking at range. He is the most recent winner of The Ultimate Fighter. He showed an impressive ability to weaponize his cardio while on the show. He can be hittable, but he’s undoubtedly durable and willing to get into a dog fight. All this being said, he’s coming off an extremely lacklustre performance in which he barely threw any strikes and seemed tentative for the entirety of fifteen minutes. Kevin Natividad is fairly well-rounded with enough ability to hang pretty much everywhere. His wrestling seems to be more developed than his striking, but he sometimes has issues putting damage on opponents once he gets a fight to the mat. More than half of Nativad’s total wins have come via knockout, but most of those came against weak and mediocre competition. He is now coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, and there’s a decent chance he’s cut from the roster if he can’t find a win in this spot. It’s really difficult to trust either fighter here, but I’m siding with Turcios. He’s been volatile, but at his best he should be able to take out a fighter like Natividad with relative ease. Ricky Turcios by Round Three Submission

Miles Johns -180 vs Vince Morales +145

Anthony: This should be an exciting bantamweight matchup between Miles Johns and Vince Morales. Usually at these odds I am confidently backing Johns but that is tough here after his most recent submission loss. If cardio and striking defense are actual problem areas for him, a matchup against Morales will become much more challenging than it appears on paper. Johns has the advantage grappling and if he elects to wrestle in this spot I see him having no problem nullifying the opposing offense. Morales is good on the feet and at range but in the areas Johns tends to bring his bouts we have seen him struggle before. Johns also has a lot of power in his hands for a 135er. He should not rely on the striking too much but his power can change the fight. I am taking him here to win on the moneyline. This card is lacking solid betting spots and Johns feels like one of the very few I will back. Miles Johns by Round Three Submission
Nick: Miles Johns is primarily a grappler. He’s shown high level wrestling ability with creative entries for takedowns and his striking seems to improve everytime we see him in the cage. He’s coming off an ugly loss via submission to John Castaneda. He looked good early in that fight, but he blew through his gas tank and his cardio. Johns often leaves himself open to counterpunches and he doesn’t always finish his combinations offensively. Still, he’s extremely athletic and his well-rounded game makes him a high upside fighter as he continues to improve. Morales is a decent striker, fighting out of Syndicate MMA. He’s been criticized at times for his lack of volume/aggressiveness on the feet. He seems to wait for the fight to come to him rather than engaging or dictating the pace. He’s coming off a decision loss to a high-level opponent in Jonathan Martinez. This is a close match-up on paper, but Johns’ wrestling advantage should be enough for him to be the better minute winner. As long as he maintains his gas tank, I expect he can cruise to a convincing decision. Miles Johns by Decision

Maryna Moroz -185 vs Jennifer Maia +150

Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight bout with Maryna Moroz facing Jennifer Maia. This is not a fight I am overly excited about but Moroz does seem to be the rightful favourite. The Ukrainian has won three bouts in a row and seems to be improving with each octagon appearance. While she has been leaning into the takedown a bit more often as of late, Moroz is usually looking to strike and work her boxing against the woman standing across the ring. She should have a noticeable advantage over Maia in terms of both hand speed and overall agility. Maia still has the ability to land cracking punches but there has been a rather evident decline in her aggression these past few years. She has lost three of her previous four bouts and I do not see her outworking Moroz here over the course of fifteen minutes. Maryna Moroz by Decision
Nick: Maia was completely outclassed when she took on the champion Valentina Shevchenko, but she did have a few positive moments and she even stole a round as a +1000 underdog. While she lost convincingly, she did look a lot better against the Champ than anyone really expected. She is 1-2 since that title fight, including back-to-back decision losses to Manon Fiorot and Katlyn Chookagian. Maryna Moroz is coming off a solid win via submission over Maria Agapova. That win took place in Moroz’s first fight since March of 2020. It seems she made considerable improvements during her long layoff, particularly in her grappling. She dominated Agapova on the ground in her last fight, and I expect she’ll look to implement a similar game plan here. If she can ground Maia consistently I expect she’ll secure the win, but we really haven’t seen her grappling tested against a fighter as tough as Maia. This should be a hard fought match-up, but the value certainly sites with the underdog. I expect Maia to land the bigger shots on the feet and lean on her BJJ to avoid letting Moroz control her on the mat with any sort of consistency. Jennifer Maia by Decision

Charles Johnson -175 vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov +140

Anthony: Closing the prelims we have flyweights Charles Johnson and Zhalgas Zhumagulov. This is a good matchup to test the calibre of both men. Zhumagulov has had a rough 1-4 start to his UFC career but largely is competitive even in the bouts he has been losing. He is a kickboxer with good distance management and solid power for this division. I would like to see him a bit more sound defensively but depending on the fight we really see him utilize footwork to stay out of his opponent’s range. Johnson is a bit less experienced than Zhumagulov but proved to be UFC calibre over the past two years. The promotional debut against Muhammad Mokaev did not go his way, but Johnson had otherwise won his four fights prior. He has good boxing and clearly is sophisticated enough on the mat, defending numerous submission attempts against Mokaev. This will be a very close fight and I worry about Johnson perhaps being more active and swaying the judges. However, I will be going with Zhumagulov as the underdog given his propensity to make bouts close. From a value perspective I view him as the play in a scrap very likely heading to the judge’s decision. Zhalgas Zhumagulov by Decision
Nick: Charles Johnson is coming off a hard fought loss in his UFC debut via decision to super prospect Mohammad Mokaev. Mokaev mostly dominated via wrestling in that spot, but Johnson gave a decent showing of himself as he consistently fought back to his feet and lasted until the judges’ scorecards. Charles Johnson is a former LFA flyweight champion. He’s a solid boxer with effective defensive wrestling ability. He’s well-rounded, but he’s tough to gauge in terms of his overall talent as he hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. Zhalgas Zhumagulov has an outstanding gas tank. He brings a relentless pace to the octagon, but he sometimes coasts through fights or waits for them to come to him. He’s well-rounded with a solid wrestling base, decent striking ability and excellent cardio. I expect Zhumagulov to have a grappling advantage in this spot, but it feels like his advantages in grappling are less significant than Johnson’s in striking. Charles Johnson by Decision

Main Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Jack Della Maddalena -700 vs Danny Roberts +475

Anthony: The main card opens with a fight between Danny Roberts and Jack Della Maddalena. Through just two UFC bouts thus far, Della Maddalena is already looking like a real contender at welterweight. The Aussie is on a twelve fight winning streak and has some of the best hands we have seen in this division. Della Maddalena’s boxing is extremely pure, throwing in combination and ripping shots to the body of opponents with fluidity. I really like his offensive attacks, entering the pocket with acute defensive awareness and a plan already set for where each punch will be placed. Drawing into a matchup with Roberts seems favourable as Della Maddalena will get to let his hands go. Roberts is not one to often shoot for takedowns and he likely is at a disadvantage if this fight were to ever hit the mat. He is a dangerous opponent without a doubt but in terms of durability and technical skill, Roberts is going to be outclassed. I see another highlight reel finish coming for Della Maddalena today. His last fight against Ramazan Emeev is arguably a tougher matchup than this. Jack Della Maddalena by Round Two KO
Nick: Jack Della Maddalena has shown highly technical striking ability in his short UFC tenure. He has excellent head movement and footwork, surprising power, and while his grappling hasn’t been tested extensively at this level, it seems he’s competent on the mat as well. Roberts is a technically gifted striker with solid footwork, but his chin is extremely suspect as three of his six professional losses have come via KO. He has underrated offensive grappling ability with decent BJJ, but his takedown entries are mediocre at best. He’s coming off an ugly decision loss to a much smaller opponent in Francisco Trinaldo. Roberts was unable to make the most of his length in that spot. Roberts has shown KO power and decent takedown ability, but Della Maddalena is still going to be the better fighter everywhere. This line has gotten out of hand as Roberts has much more experience at this level, but Della Maddalena is very clearly the play here. Jack Della Maddalena by Round Two KO

Muslim Salikhov -110 vs Andre Fialho -110

Anthony: Next is another welterweight fight as Andre Fialho will face Muslim Salikhov. Each man took a winning streak into their most recent octagon appearance before getting finished in the fight’s second round. For Fialho that was a bout against Jake Matthews that saw each man winging shots and biting down on the mouthpiece. Normally Fialho is the one favoured in tight exchanges but his defense is a glaring issue. Absorbing 6.65 significant strikes a minute is just not sustainable at this high a level. Salikhov is not known for having a high volume attack, but he does have the power to floor Fialho. It is tough to trust either guy after seeing them dusted so recently. I lean the way of Fialho as the younger fighter on the rise, but Salikhov has not shown any real signs of slowing down at the age of 38. At pick em odds I will take Fialho but it is not a confident pick. Andre Fialho by Round One KO
Nick: Fialho is likely to be the aggressor early here, but he’ll need to be careful in managing his gas tank. We’ve seen Fialho fade late in fights on more than one occasion. Fialho is coming off an ugly KO loss to Jake Matthews, a fight in which he was expected to have a considerable striking advantage. He mentioned in interviews that he underestimated his opponent in that spot, so there’s a good chance we see a better version of Fialho this time around. Fialho is fairly well-rounded, but he’s most content to stand and trade as he has true one shot KO power. Muslim Salikhov is an excellent striker with an solid chin and a ton of power behind his shots. He’s a former kickboxer and fairly one-dimensional, but he’s good enough on the feet to hang with almost anyone in the division. He throws a wide-range of diverse strikes, including a lot of spinning attacks and high kicks. He recently changed camps to American Top Team to focus more on his wrestling. I expect he can lean on a more grappling heavy game to neutralize Fialho’s power and grind out a decision win. Fialho is live for the KO, but I see that as his only real path to victory. Muslim Salikhov by Decision

Waldo Cortes-Acosta -250 vs Chase Sherman +190

Anthony: This is a matchup at heavyweight between Chase Sherman and Waldo Cortes-Acosta. It is the second UFC fight for Cortes-Acosta who enters still undefeated at 8-0. He is not the most spectacular heavyweight prospect but I do like the footwork and overall cage presence he has. Salsa Boy moves very fluidly inside the octagon and gets in and out of range rather cleanly. He is a big heavyweight who will have the size advantage here. Going against Sherman it will take more than looping overhands to get the job done, but I think Cortes-Acosta has a wider arsenal of attacks he can draw from. Tonight I see him working the body and legs of Sherman having prepared for another tough fifteen minutes facing a more established veteran. Sherman has good boxing and I worry about him cracking and finishing Cortes-Acosta in the first round. However, we should see the Dominican fighter gain traction as the fight goes late and Sherman absorbs more and more clean blows. He feels like a reasonable play here at near -250 facing an opponent on a 1-4 losing skid. Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Decision
Nick: This is an extremely low level matchup at heavyweight between two of the least skilled fighters on the entire roster. Cortes-Acosta is coming off a decision win in his UFC debut over Jared Vanderaa. Cortes-Acosta is 8-0 professionally, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. He’s athletic for a heavyweight and he has shown decent cardio at this level, but his power is a bit of a question mark as he’s really only KO’d mediocre competition. Chase Sherman is a relatively dangerous striker and he usually comes out aggressive in most of his fights. His cardio and grappling have proven to be major weaknesses for him at the top level, but he is coming off a solid win via third round KO over Jared Vanderaa. Sherman is capable of working well behind his jab. He has decent power in both hands, but he often telegraphs his bigger punches and doesn’t consistently throw in combination. It’s tough to get excited about either of these fighters, but I’ll side with the fresher and more athletic Cortes-Acosta. He should be able to catch Sherman with something early here. Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Round One KO

Kennedy Nzechukwu -175 vs Ion Cutelaba +140

Anthony: The co-main event is a light heavyweight matchup between Ion Cutelaba and Kennedy Nzechukwu. It is a very interesting clash between a high octane fighter in Cutelaba facing the more reserved Nzechukwu. Kennedy is coming off one of his best performances in the cage as he dominated and outgrappled Karl Roberson. He is a massive 205er benefiting from an eight-inch advantage in reach here today. Given the forward pressure of Cutelaba it is likely a challenge for Nzechukwu to abuse his reach, though I could certainly see him keeping Cutelaba on the end of a jab as this fight goes late. Normally we see a huge burst of energy from Cutelaba right at the opening bell and a defensively sound fighter like Nzechukwu should be able to handle it. The more clear path to victory for Cutelaba would be a grappling heavy attack focused on controlling the bigger man. However, questions surrounding the Moldovan’s cardio also make me weary to back him in that sort of stylistic clash. He is an attractive play at these odds but I will not be getting to the window here with Cutelaba. Nzechukwu is the more steady fighter and seemingly the more technically sound. Kennedy Nzechukwu by Round Two KO
Nick: The biggest knock on Nzechukwu is his low output and tendency to stay excessively conservative. He often spends too much time just waiting for fights to come to him. He’s a dangerous striker and technically sound offensively, but his extreme tentativeness prevents him from dominating inferior opponents. He is coming off a solid win over Karl Roberson in which he relied mostly on his grappling to secure the win. Cutelaba is going to come out firing here, he always does. He’s hyper aggressive with serious power and explosiveness on the feet. He’s an underrated grappler as a lifelong Greco Roman Wrestler, but he doesn’t seem to lean on that part of his game much in the majority of his fights. The likely reason for this is that his cardio is mediocre at best. He almost always seems to fade as his fights wear on and if he can’t find a KO win early he can find himself in serious trouble. He’s coming off back-to-back losses to Johnny Walker and Ryan Spann, both via first round submission. Given the general volatility of both of these fighters this is a tough one to call, but I’m siding with the underdog. I expect Cutelaba to control the pace early here. I like that he can lean on his wrestling if he needs to and I see him as the more dangerous and potent finisher. Ion Cutelaba by Round One KO

Sergey Spivak -210 vs Derrick Lewis +165

Anthony: The main event is a bout between Derrick Lewis and Sergey Spivak. While Spivak has shared the cage with numerous top tier heavyweights, this is his first real test against an established title contender and longtime veteran. Lewis is the all-time UFC knockout leader and one of the scariest fighters the promotion has seen. He is always going to be outclassed in terms of technical skill and athleticism, but never in terms of power. It only takes one shot from Lewis to truly change a fight’s outcome and some of the highlight reel KOs he has are as clean as clean can be. As a bettor, the line needs to reflect Lewis’ likelihood of connecting and finding a finish at this latter stage of his career. I find these odds accurate today as Spivak will look every bit of -210 if successful securing the victory. He is a grappler who can control Lewis and snap him back to the ground if capable of finding early takedown entries. I am just concerned about him closing distance efficiently here in a smaller octagon. While Lewis is a test Spivak could very well pass with ease, I am picking The Black Beast today. He should pressure forward and fire bombs often here against an opponent in Spivak who is mediocre on the feet. Derrick Lewis by Round One KO
Nick: We have a fun heavyweight match-up here that is very likely to end inside the distance. Derrick Lewis doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown, on several occasions, that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. He’s a true knockout artist with twenty-one of his twenty-six professional wins coming via KO. Sergey Spivak has an excellent ground game for a heavyweight. Most of his wins have come via submission or ground and pound. He’s decent at striking in the clinch, but seems overly hesitant at times which can allow inferior opponents to stay in fights he should be dominating. Spivak averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes. The key for him in this match-up will be to ground Derrick Lewis without getting caught. This is an extremely volatile match-up and one that could certainly go either way, but it seems Spivak is progressing in his development as Lewis has begun to decline. I’d rather bet the under on the round total here over picking a side, but Spivak is my pick. Sergey Spivak by Round Two Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com