Blue Jays Should Inquire About D-Backs’ Surplus of Outfielders
How will the Toronto Blue Jays replace Teoscar Hernández?
Wednesday’s trade with the Seattle Mariners, which sent the two-time Silver Slugger to the Pacific Northwest in exchange for pitchers Erik Swanson and Adam Macko, has created a massive void in Toronto’s outfield, leaving fans to wonder how it’ll be filled.
The most popular answer amongst the fan base is undoubtedly signing free agent Brandon Nimmo, who would improve the roster in multiple areas. But if the highly-coveted centre-fielder proves overly expensive, management could turn its attention to the trade market.
One franchise that could serve as a potential trade partner is the Arizona Diamondbacks, as they entered this off-season with a surplus of outfielders. And the organization has since added to that equation by acquiring 2020 AL Rookie of the Year, Kyle Lewis.
In return, the Diamondbacks sent catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel to the Mariners, whose outfield will be headlined by Hernández and Julio Rodríguez next season.
Following the trade, Arizona now features eight outfielders on its 40-man roster, including Lewis, Corbin Carroll, Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Pavin Smith, Jorge Barrosa and Dominic Fletcher.
That’s not ideal roster construction, especially for a franchise that lost 88 games this past season. With that in mind, the front office is reportedly open to utilizing that position of strength to help address other areas of concern, particularly behind the plate.
Carson Kelly and Jose Herrera are the only two catchers on the club’s 40-man roster, though neither has provided much offensive upside in previous seasons. That’s where the Blue Jays and their impressive catching depth could come in handy.
Acquiring Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno would be a massive upgrade over Kelly and Herrera next season. Kirk and Moreno are likely the more appealing choices as either would become the franchise’s everyday backstop long term.
Carroll would probably garner the most interest from Toronto, although the 22-year-old likely isn’t available as Arizona values him as a critical part of its core. A few of his teammates could become expendable, though.
Varsho will almost certainly be discussed in trade rumours this off-season as the team looks to capitalize on his career year. The 26-year-old is coming off a season where he was worth a career-best 4.6 fWAR, but that was largely because of his stellar defence. Offensively, the left-hander is mostly an all-or-nothing type of hitter.
After experiencing much of that with Hernández, the Blue Jays would probably prefer to acquire a more contact-oriented performer. Ideally, one that is left-handed, to boot. And if there is one outfielder who should be high on their priority list, it’s Thomas.
The 22-year-old lefty hasn’t established himself as a consistent big-league performer yet, however, his ceiling remains extremely high following his rookie season.
Thomas opened the 2022 campaign at triple-A, though his time there didn’t last very long after hitting .322/.397/.539 with four home runs and a 133 wRC+ across 27 games. He also posted a ridiculous .351 BABIP, .217 ISO and .402 wOBA.
Promoted in early May, the 5-foot-11 outfielder debuted with the Diamondbacks against the Colorado Rockies on May 8, going 1-for-3 with a double and a run scored. It was the beginning of his remarkable 14-game hot streak.
As part of it, Thomas posted four doubles, three home runs, six RBIs, a 166 wRC+ and a .326/.354/.609 slash line over 48 plate appearances. His stretch also included a .353 BABIP, .283 ISO and .411 wOBA.
The left-hander cooled off shortly after, however, struggling to replicate his success throughout the rest of the season. He hit just .218/.264/.307 with a .252 BABIP, .090 ISO, .254 wOBA and a 59 wRC+ over his final 99 contests.
There’s reason to believe that Thomas can enjoy a bounce-back performance in 2023. The former second-round selection from 2018, who was among the game’s premier prospects prior to this past season, possesses the offensive tools to excel in the majors; he just needs more time to adjust to big-league pitching.
In the minors, the youngster’s incredible plate discipline was on full display, resulting in a 10.5 percent walk rate and an 18.7 percent strikeout rate since 2021. But, in the majors, his walk rate fell to 5.4 percent, ranking in the 14th percentile, while his strikeout rate remained unchanged at 18.0 percent.
Though Thomas wasn’t striking out often, his swing decisions significantly impacted his offensive results, leading to a 25.0 percent whiff rate and a 33.4 percent chase rate. Those ranked in the 47th and 20th percentile, respectively.
Both categories are correctable, though. If Thomas displays improved patience, his top-notch contact and on-base metrics should return to their previous forms next season. And that’s part of what makes him such an intriguing target for the Blue Jays.
Another factor is that the Chicago, Illinois, native is an exceptional defender. He logged 907.1 innings in centre field this past season, finishing tied for sixth in DRS (+6) and eighth in OAA (+6) among big-league centre-fielders, according to FanGraphs.
Thomas’ arrival would allow Toronto to shift George Springer to right field, which should take less of a physical toll on his body while improving the club’s outfield defence. As a result, their 2023 starting outfield would consist of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Thomas and Springer.
Better yet, Thomas isn’t arbitration-eligible until after the 2024 season, nor can he enter free agency before 2029. So he’d be under team control as a relatively inexpensive contributor for at least the next six seasons.
The savings that the Blue Jays received by trading Hernández and non-tendering Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer – totalling roughly $20 million – could then be allocated toward replacing Ross Stripling. Perhaps they could re-sign him, though that still appears unlikely.
It could also help management pursue the likes of Carlos Rodón, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and others. With additional financial flexibility at their disposal, the chances of landing one of those talented arms would surely increase.
So while Thomas isn’t well-known across the majors – at least, not yet – he’d be a perfect fit for the Blue Jays if he becomes available via trade.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
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