Happy Wednesday, basketball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (11/30) NBA slate. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022-2023 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a painful 0-3 record last time out, so we fell to a ugly 10-14 on the young season. We’ve endured a few bad beats over the past few weeks, but I’m confident our luck will improve as the season progresses and we get more data. We have a solid slate of NBA action tonight, so I’m eager to see if we can bounce back and reverse this momentum.
MLB Season Record: (57-51)
NBA Season Record: (10-14)
Overall 2022 Bets Record: (67-65)
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics @ 7:30 EST
Nick’s Pick: Boston Celtics, ATS -9 (-110)
The Miami Heat are 0-3 Against the Spread (ATS) across their last three games played. They rank 26th in the NBA in Rebounding Rate and they are just 7-13-1 ATS so far this season. Jimmy Butler is once again out for Miami here and they have several rotational players that are also listed as Questionable.
The Boston Celtics are 13-8 Against the Spread (ATS) so far this season. They’re 2-1 Against the Spread across their last three games played. They lead the NBA in Offensive Efficiency and Effective Field Goal Percentage and their 8-3 record ATS at Home is second in the league. The nine point total feels wide here, but I still like Boston to cover as Home favorite (-110).
Milwaukee Bucks @ New York Knicks @ 7:30 EST
Nick’s Pick: Milwaukee Bucks, ATS -5.5 (-110)
The Milwaukee Bucks are 12-7 Against the Spread (ATS) so far this season. They lead the NBA in both Defensive Efficiency (105.3) and Rebounding Rate (53.3).
The Knicks have the worst Home record Against the Spread (ATS) this season, at a meager 2-6-1. They are playing on a back-to-back here, traveling into New York from Detroit. The Bucks are 3-0 ATS in their last three games played and they are 7-3 ATS across their last ten games played against the Knicks. I like the Bucks to cover the 5.5 point spread as favorites on the Road in this one (-110).
Portland Trailblazers @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10:30 EST
Nick’s Pick: Los Angeles Lakers, ATS, -5.5 (-110)
The Lakers are coming off a total collapse against the Pacers, a game in which they blew a 17-point fourth quarter lead. It sounds like they should be entirely healthy for this match-up, which represents an important bounce-back spot against their Western Conference rivals off a full day of rest.
The Blazers are coming into this match-up unrested on a back-to-back, still missing their best player in Damian Lillard. They rank 24th in the NBA in Turnover Ratio. and 18th in Defensive Efficiency. It doesn’t feel great backing this Lakers team in any spot this season, but I like them in this one to cover this 5.5 spread as favorites at Home.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS