Jacob deGrom’s Opt-Out Decision Looms Large as Mets Face Massive Roster Turnover
The New York Mets were hoping to embark on a deep playoff run this season, but after losing to the San Diego Padres in the NL Wild Card, they now face a critical off-season.
After winning 101 games – the second-most in franchise history – general manager Billy Eppler must attempt to improve his roster over the next several months. The problem, however, is that much of the band from this past season is likely leaving Queens.
Eppler has his work cut out for him as notable players such as Edwin Díaz, Brandon Nimmo, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor May and Seth Lugo can become eligible for free agency. Bringing everyone back for 2023 could prove challenging, particularly Díaz and Nimmo.
Chris Bassitt can also enter free agency if he declines his $19 million mutual option for next season. If the 33-year-old accepts, the Mets would also have to do the same, but it likely won’t come to that.
Making matters worse, the front office remains unclear about ace Jacob deGrom’s future and whether he plans to opt out of the final two years of his $147.5 million contract. If he does, he’d be forgoing $63 million, although he’d likely recover that in free agency.
The 34-year-old was noncommittal about his decision during the regular season, keeping his focus on the field. And that didn’t change in the playoffs, either, as he didn’t reveal any details post-game following last Sunday’s Game 3 defeat.
While deGrom has kept everything close to the vest thus far, most in the industry expect the four-time All-Star to opt out and become a free agent this winter. If that occurs, he’ll instantly emerge as the top pitcher available, and rightly so.
When healthy, the two-time Cy Young Award winner has been one of the best starting pitchers of his generation. He didn’t arrive in the majors until his age-26 season, but since then, few have been more dominant on the mound than him.
deGrom finished tied for first with Max Scherzer in fWAR (27.6) among all qualified big-league starters from 2017-21, according to FanGraphs. The 6-foot-4 righty also posted the best ERA (2.35), FIP (2.49) and third-highest strikeout rate (33.1 percent) during that span.
If the ninth-round selection from 2010 reaches the open market, he’ll undoubtedly field plenty of interest across the sport. So which teams might pursue him? Every playoff contender is likely to make a run at him, quite frankly.
Opportunities to acquire an elite starter without surrendering prospect capital don’t come around often. These days, they barely occur at all. So it’s vital to capitalize on them when they do, even if it means paying an absurd amount.
deGrom is likely searching for two things: 1. A lucrative contract that carries through his age-39 season. 2. Putting himself in the best position to win a World Series before he retires.
Only a handful of franchises can meet both of those requirements, but are the Mets one of them? Perhaps. But it’s realistic to expect the veteran hurler to explore his options outside New York. He could also be tempted by the “Evil Empire” in the Bronx as well.
If superstar Aaron Judge doesn’t re-sign with the Yankees, general manager Brian Cashman will probably want to respond by making a giant splash. Poaching deGrom from the Mets could be the perfect way to do that.
Of course, deGrom could opt to stay in the NL East, potentially joining the rival Atlanta Braves. That would surely anger Mets fans. But with shortstop Dansby Swanson also becoming a free agent, the hard-throwing righty would likely have to sign for less money, although everyone seems to be doing that over there.
The Los Angeles Dodgers should also be considered a potential destination, with Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney all slated to hit free agency. They could also be without Walker Buehler for all of next season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
With Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May as their only current starting pitching options in 2023, adding deGrom to the fold would be a massive game-changer, especially if Buehler returns at some point.
A potential bidding war could break out if enough teams pursue deGrom’s services, which should happen. In that case, despite being plagued by injuries over the last two seasons, limiting him to just 156.1 total innings, a pitcher of his stature should command at least $30 million per season.
In 2019, the Boston Red Sox inked left-hander Chris Sale to a five-year, $145-million contract extension that pays him $29 million per season. Gerrit Cole signed a massive nine-year, $324-million deal with New York less than 12 months later, featuring a $36 million average annual value.
Then there’s Scherzer’s three-year, $130-million contract that he signed with the Mets last off-season, which carries a $43.3 million AAV. Although it’s unlikely they’d be willing to pay deGrom a similar amount this winter.
Owner Steve Cohen isn’t afraid to spend into the luxury tax, which he proved in 2022 as the Mets’ Collective Balance Tax (CBT) payroll exceeded the $230 million tax threshold by roughly $58.1 million. As a result, they’ll be subject to a 62.5 percent tax rate this winter.
It was the first time the organization had spent beyond that threshold since 1999. And by all accounts, the Mets are poised to do so for a second consecutive season in 2023.
The Mets already have over $182.1 million committed to 14 players in 2023, with their CBT payroll at approximately $205.4 million. That leaves them with just over $26.5 million in tax space – not that it matters.
Even with the team planning to spend into the luxury tax, that won’t provide them much flexibility. In all likelihood, they’ll probably have to part ways with at least one of deGrom, Nimmo or Díaz. And replacing any of those players won’t be easy, either.
It’s not an ideal situation by any means, nor is it one that features a favourable outcome for the Mets. That’s the troubling dilemma the organization will face in the coming months, and it’s up to Eppler and his staff to solve it.
But before anything transpires, management must determine where it stands with regards to deGrom moving forward.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: Keith Allison. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.