Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (9/16) MLB slate. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the remainder of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 1-2 record last time out, so we fell to a 44-43 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance that I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Friday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s finish the regular season strong.
Season Record: (44-43)
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Chicago White Sox, Money Line (-150)
Lucas Giolito comes into this start with a 5.18 ERA, but he’s due for positive regression as he’s carrying a 4.24 xFIP and an inflated .352 BABIP. This Detroit offense has been amongst the worst in the MLB against RHP this season. Their projected lineup shows a terrible .279 wOBA against RHP as well as a near 26% K Rate.
Matt Manning hasn’t been terrible, but the Tigers have lost five of his last seven outings. He’s due for regression as his 4.60 xFIP sits nearly a full point higher than his 3.73 ERA. This White Sox offense has had a disappointing 2022, but they’ve been seeing the ball better lately as they’re averaging 6.6 Runs Scored over their last eight games played. Seeing as we’re getting a reasonable price of -150 on them here, I’ll comfortably back the White Sox on this money line.
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Houston Astros, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-130)
Adrian Martinez is coming off a terrible start in which he allowed 7 ER at Home against the White Sox. He comes into this start with a shaky 4.70 xFIP, allowing a .208 ISO to RHH and boasting a terrible 6.52 September ERA.
These Astros have scored 5+ Runs in four of their last five games played. They have the best Home OPS in the AL this season with a .765. They rank 2nd in the AL in HRs at Home with 95, and first in the AL at Home with a .329 OBP. This is as healthy as this lineup has been all season, so it feels like we’re getting clear value on the Over of their 4.5 Run team total at a price of just -130.
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamond Backs @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: San Diego Padres, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-130)
Madison Bumgarner comes into this start with an ugly 5.59 xFIP on the season. He’s allowing a .215 ISO to RHH, a terrible 45% Hard Contact Rate and a shaky 40% Fly Ball Rate to go along with it. He’s allowed 4+ ER in seven of his last eight starts.
The Padres rank 3rd in the MLB with 359 Runs Scored on the Road this season. Additionally, their projected starting lineup shows a solid .175 ISO against lefties in 2022. They should see a boost in production with Brandon Drury now back from the IL. I’m liking the Over on their team total of 4.5 Runs here at a reasonable price of -130.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS