UFC 278 Preview & Betting Guide

UFC 278: Usman vs Edwards II – 8.20.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 278: Usman vs Edwards II. This weekend the UFC traveled to Salt Lake City for a great pay-per-view card headlined by a fight deciding the welterweight championship. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 215-124-1 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 217-122-1 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 8-19-2022 at 10pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:30pm EST

Victor Altamirano -175 vs Daniel da Silva +140

Anthony: The card begins with a matchup at flyweight between Daniel da Silva and Victor Altamirano. I find it easy to justify the betting odds here with Altamirano being the far more experienced fighter. He is a very crisp technical striker with a resume that is miles ahead of da Silva’s. While da Silva may have the faster hands, he is not nearly as powerful or defensively sound. He has also not won a fight since signing with the UFC. His opportunity to win today will be in the early going where he always tends to find the most success. However, Altamirano is somebody I trust to weather the early attack and drag this fight into deeper waters. Da Silva has not seen the start of round three yet as a professional and his cardio remains a mystery past the ten-minute marker. Expect Altamirano to win a majority of striking exchanges and prove he is the better fighter of these two. I think he finds a finish late after wearing his man down. Victor Altamirano by Round Three KO
Nick: This is a low-level matchup at flyweight between two fighters with questionable Fight IQs. Altamirano has a solid body-lock takedown and decent jiu jitsu, but he tends to spend more time on his back chasing submissions than he should. He comes out very aggressive in most of his fights. He’s technically sound offensively on the feet, but he often over-exerts himself in striking exchanges and leaves himself open to be countered. He’s coming off a hard fought and close decision loss to Carlos Hernandez in his UFC debut. He’ll be looking to get back in the win column here against a beatable opponent in Daniel da Silva. Daniel da Silva is coming off back-to-back finish losses. He usually comes out extremely aggressive and he can be effective early, but he tends to give fights away after he wins the first round. He has decent power for a flyweight, but he telegraphs many of his strikes. Additionally, he doesn’t seem to have much in terms of defensive wrestling ability. My confidence is very low here, but I’ll side with Altamirano. While both of these guys are flawed, he should have enough durability to weather an early storm from da Silva and then take over as this fight wears on. Five of Altamirano’s ten wins have come via submission. I think Altamirano can find a finish in this one as soon as da Silva starts to fade. Victor Altamirano by Round Two Submission

Aoriqileng -140 vs Jay Perrin +115

Anthony: Next is a fight at bantamweight between Jay Perrin and Aoriqileng. We have only seen Perrin perform once at the UFC level and that was against a tough opponent in Mario Bautista. It was not a very impressive showing but Perrin did take the assignment on extremely short notice. He is a solid wrestler with good offensive grappling and overall output. Aoriqileng is a brawler who is far more concerned with trading punches. He poses a big threat to Perrin while this fight is on the feet. Aoriqileng is certainly live to land a big overhand and takeover, but Perrin is the more well-rounded and technically sharp. At underdog money he is my pick to get the job done. I think Aoriqileng was a better fit for the flyweight division than 135 pounds. A strong bantamweight like Perrin should be able to ground him and largely control this bout on the mat. Jay Perrin by Decision
Nick: Aoriqileng is extremely aggressive, but when he faces highly technical strikers he sometimes puts himself in danger overexerting himself in exchanges and leaving himself open to counter shots. He is coming off an impressive win via ground and pound KO over Cameron Else, but there’s a decent chance Else was never truly a UFC level fighter. Jay Perrin is well-rounded, but really hasn’t had much success against top level competition. He seems rough around the edges when you watch him on film, but he has a decent wrestling base and solid counter-striking ability. He is coming off a loss in his UFC debut to a really tough out in Mario Bautista. In spite of the losing result, his stock likely rose more than it fell in that spot as he lasted all three rounds and was competitive as a near +300 underdog. This is one of the tougher fights on the card to call, but I have a slight preference for the underdog here. Aoriqileng is going to be dangerous early, but Perrin is durable and should be able to pull away on the scorecards as the fight extends into the later rounds. Aoriqileng will be dangerous in exchanges, but Perrin should have a considerable advantage grappling. This is a low confidence play, but there is value on Perrin as an underdog. Jay Perrin by Decision

Amir Albazi -500 vs Francisco Figueiredo +375

Anthony: We are back at flyweight for the next fight as Amir Albazi takes on Francisco Figueiredo. It has been a year and a half since Albazi last competed, beating Zhalgas Zhumagulov by decision. He is a massive favorite in this matchup but Albazi has proven in previous appearances that he is the full package. Apart from ring rust there is very little about him that would concern me. His dominance grappling is often an X-factor thanks to his knowledge of positions and compact frame. Albazi is also a dangerous striker but less likely to take risks while engaging on the feet. Figueiredo has been a tough fighter for me to read but it is clear he lacks the power and cardio possessed by his brother Deiveson. His resume also pales in comparison to that of Albazi. This is not a matchup where Figueiredo will be able to find dominant position or attempt many legitimate submissions on the mat. I see Albazi wearing down and beating on him over the course of fifteen minutes here. Albazi should comfortably cash the favorite ticket as long as he survives the first round. Amir Albazi by Decision
Nick: Francisco Figueiredo is a bit overrated due to the success of his brother, Deiveson. Still, he has enough ability on the mat to be a stylistic problem for a lot of opponents. He’s coming off an impressive win via submission over Daniel da Silva. On the feet, Figueiredo barely throws any volume in exchanges. He’s content to trade shots more often than he should which will likely prove troublesome for him here against Albazi. Albazi has been out of action since January of 2021. He was scheduled to fight Ode Osbourne in July of 2017 and Tim Elliott in June of 2022. However, his opponent pulled out of both of those matchups. Albazi has a solid wrestling base which works well in combination with his aggressive submission style. His striking is decent, he has a powerful uppercut and does a good job mixing in body shots. He sometimes leaves himself open to counters, but I don’t really view Figueiredo as someone with enough power to make him pay for it. Eight of Albazi’s fourteen Wins have come via Submission. However, it seems far more likely he’ll spend a lot of this fight at striking range. No matter where this one goes, I expect Albazi to stay a step ahead of Figueiredo here. His long layoff is a bit concerning, but he’s simply a class above Figueiredo at this point in his career. Amir Albazi by Round Two KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

AJ Fletcher -160 vs Ange Loosa +130

Anthony: The preliminary card opens with a fun welterweight scrap between Ange Loosa and AJ Fletcher. Both men were able to impress on Dana White’s Contender Series but each fell short of victory in their UFC debuts this year. Fletcher faced a tough out in Matt Semelsberger and stuck to a wrestling heavy gameplan despite being undersized. He wrestled collegiately at the University of Louisiana Lafayette and has the clear advantage grappling again in this matchup. Loosa on the other hand will be looking to kickbox. He has a seven-inch edge in reach over Fletcher and the far wider arsenal of strikes. We will likely see this bout decided by Loosa’s ability to stay upright and defend takedown attempts. Fletcher is the rightful favorite given that advantage grappling, but he can also find a finish swinging an overhand from either stance. Loosa has not shown me nearly enough to warrant taking a chance on him as the underdog. AJ Fletcher by Decision
Nick: AJ Fletcher is coming off a hard-fought decision loss in his UFC debut, which came against a tough out in Matthew Semelsberger. He was very competitive in spite of it being his debut, but Semelsberger won more exchanges on the feet and ultimately did enough to sway the judges on the scorecards. Fletcher has a solid wrestling base and explosive power striking out of breaks. He’s still not quite technically refined on the feet, but he’s gifted athletically and continues to prove every time we see him in the cage. Similar to Fletcher, Loosa is coming off a loss in his UFC debut. He fell via decision to Mounir Lazzez after taking the fight on just four days’ notice. He had moments in that matchup, but Lazzez seemed a step ahead in exchanges which isn’t surprising considering he had a full camp training for a dangerous vet in Zaleski dos Santos. He telegraphs many of his strikes and his footwork is far from refined, but his athleticism and overall explosiveness allows him to find success in exchanges. Loosa lands more than five significant strikes per minute. Fletcher is averaging more than four takedowns per fifteen minutes. This feels like a striker vs. grappler matchup and a tough one to call, but I see Loosa having the bigger moments. Ange Loosa by Decision

Sean Woodson -370 vs Luis Saldana +275

Anthony: Next is a featherweight fight between Luis Saldana and Sean Woodson. I am very excited to see another performance from Woodson after the nasty finish of Collin Anglin he scored this winter. He is a phenomenal boxer with great volume and hand speed. We have also seen him improve quite drastically over the past several years. The combinations he throws are now incredibly fluid. Woodson’s long frame also allows him to quickly change targets and keep the opponent across from him guessing at all times. There are certainly tough matchups for Woodson at 145 pounds, but Saldana seems like a very favorable draw. He also tends to focus primarily on striking and if these two are going to kickbox my money is on The Sniper. Saldana ends combinations less aggressively, usually opting for a single kick or a 1-2. He also is far less comfortable than Woodson in the pocket, looking instead to fight at distance as often as he can. Ultimately the pressure and volume from Woodson will end up breaking Saldana down. We often see the third round being Saldana’s worst in the fights that last that long. Woodson is one of my more confident plays on the card due to this stylistic matchup. Sean Woodson by Round Two KO
Nick: Woodson is an extremely talented kickboxer as a former Golden Gloves champion. He continues to show improvements in other facets of his game, but he’s still mostly one dimensional. He has a 79-inch reach which is ridiculous for this division, and most of the time he uses it to pick his opponents apart at a distance. Woodson is going to have a significant advantage when this fight is standing. He lands more than five significant strikes per minute and while he has been out of action since November of 2021, he’s coming off back-to-back wins. Saldana usually comes out aggressive. He’s content to stand and strike, but we’ve also seen him lean on his grappling in certain matchups. Saldana’s cardio and conditioning seems questionable at best. I expect he’ll be the aggressor early here, but it’s going to be important for him to pace himself in case this fight is carried into the later rounds. The line does feel like it’s getting a bit out of hand, but Woodson is the rightful favorite. I expect him to outland Saldana and keep this fight standing until he eventually finds a finish. Sean Woodson by Round Two KO

Jared Gordon -280 vs Leonardo Santos +220

Anthony: This is an interesting lightweight fight with Leonardo Santos and Jared Gordon set to battle it out. Santos is becoming a hard fighter to bet on as he now walks to the octagon at age 42. He lost two bouts consecutively as a result of subpar cardio and it seems this weight cut was tough as well, arriving as one of the last fighters to the scales. Still Santos remains a dangerous opponent early with his heavy hands and very capable jiu jitsu. Gordon is a fighter who can likely follow a game plan and weather that early storm. He is not as big as Santos but he is a cleaner striker who is more efficient in his movement and countering. Gordon does not deserve to be favored by so much having a near identical professional record, but he is my pick to win this bout nonetheless. There are very few holes in his game and only top tier lightweights have gotten the win over him. It is also near impossible to expect a hard fifteen minutes from Santos at an elevation of 4200 feet. Jared Gordon by Decision
Nick: Jared Gordon is extremely well-rounded. He’s a gritty veteran, coming off a hard-fought loss to a surging prospect in Grant Dawson. His takedown defense is fairly average, but he does an excellent job creating space on the ground to work himself back to his feet. Gordon lands more than five significant strikers per minute, carrying an excellent +2.04 strike differential. Santos is aging and he doesn’t fight often. However, as a result he has not taken the damage that a lot of other 42-year-olds have. He has outstanding offensive grappling ability and can find submissions from almost any position as a 7-time World BJJ Champion. He mixes in calf kicks well, has shown a decent chin and usually comes out strong regardless of who he’s matched up with. Santos has been known to fade late in fights, which will likely prove troublesome for him here as this fight is taking place well above sea-level. I expect Gordon to be the better fighter when these two are standing and trading and while I expect Santos to score a few takedowns, Gordon should be able to work his way back to his feet once he’s grounded. Santos is going to be very dangerous early here, but I expect Gordon to endure that first round barrage until he can start to take over. As this fight wears on I see Gordon’s experience and more well-rounded game shining through. Jared Gordon by Round Three KO

Alexander Romanov -385 vs Marcin Tybura +280

Anthony: The preliminary card ends with a bout between heavyweights Alexander Romanov and Marcin Tybura. One of my favorite prospects in the UFC is Romanov who enters this matchup still undefeated. He is a dominant wrestler, emerging first as a rikishi before engaging further in sambo and jiu jitsu. Upon entering the UFC Romanov tipped the heavyweight scales, but now he is much more muscular and seemingly melting away body fat. He is young for this division and I really am hopeful for his future, especially as his striking continues to improve training at Tiger Muay Thai. Out of all the ranked heavyweights I think Tybura’s style is the most challenging for Romanov to navigate. Positions in the clinch are where Tybura thrives and Romanov will be met with far more resistance grappling there than when facing this division’s other contenders. I still believe he can rely on speed and technique to outwork Tybura in those positions but it is a scary proposition backing him at nearly four to one odds. Alexander Romanov by Round Two KO
Nick: It may have come against mediocre competition, but the 31-year-old Romonav has shown an uncanny ability to lift other heavyweights entirely off the ground and ragdoll them as if they were a whole lot smaller. He has decent striking ability at range, but highly effective ground-and-pound and a decent choke game when can take his opponents to the mat. For a borderline out-of-shape Heavyweight, Romanov has solid cardio. He usually looks fine late in fights, which is more than can be said for a lot of guys in this division. Tybura is decent on the feet, but most of his success has come via his wrestling. Tybura is a BJJ black belt and one of the better offensive grapplers in the division. His career does seem to be on a bit of a decline, but he has a major experience advantage in this matchup. Most of Romanov’s success has come against terrible grapplers, which makes this a very interesting test for him here. While it seems more likely than not Romanov will lean on his youth and athleticism to find an early finish here, he’s going to be in trouble if he doesn’t. This is a low confidence play, but I’m going to take an underdog shot on Tybura here. This line has simply gotten too out of hand to pass on. Marcin Tybura by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Tyson Pedro -770 vs Harry Hunsucker +500

Anthony: Opening the main card is a bout at light heavyweight between Harry Hunsucker and Tyson Pedro. I was very impressed with Pedro as he returned from a four-year hiatus and finished Ike Villanueva earlier this spring. He is a marketable fighter given his aggressive style and speed in such a heavy class. This draw into Hunsucker to start off a pay-per-view is a layup to help build even more hype. Hunsucker has been stopped in the very first round of his two UFC appearances. He has never had a fight last longer than five minutes and it is really just a reckless, brawling style that Hunsucker implements in hopes of connecting. Pedro is too skilled technically to get caught in prolonged exchanges where Hunsucker can land. He can likely win by simply sitting behind his jab or taking this fight to the mat where he has a massive grappling advantage. My most confident pick on this card is Pedro as I expect this to be a very dominant showing. Tyson Pedro by Round One Submission
Nick: Pedro is a decent striker, as well as a very talented BJJ practitioner and one of the better grapplers on the roster at 205 pounds. He’s coming off an impressive win via leg-kick KO over Ike Villanueva, and he’s once again a massive favorite against one of the more mediocre fighters on the roster in Harry Hunsucker. Hunsucker has knockout power, but he’s never won a fight against anyone at the UFC level. He could luck into an early KO here as he’s shown power on the regional scene, but I expect Pedro to outclass him considerably no matter where this fight goes. As long as he doesn’t engage in a brawl with Hunsucker, I expect Pedro to cruise to a win here. I expect him to score an early takedown without much resistance, advance position and secure a submission. He’s also very live to win by landing a counter, but regardless I see him finishing Hunsucker quickly. Tyson Pedro by Round One Submission

Lucie Pudilova -125 vs Wu Yanan +105

Anthony: Next is a women’s bantamweight fight between Lucie Pudilova and Wu Yanan. These are low-level fighters in the division and I find it hard to justify the placement of this bout on tonight’s main card. Wu Yanan is just 1-4 in the UFC. She has been losing to solid competition but really a lack of aggression seems to be what is costing her victories. Yanan does not respond great after getting hit and opponents can usually sway the judges with continued output throughout rounds. I just feel Pudilova is no good either. She went 0-4 in her first UFC stint and since has accrued just a very thin 5-1 run in Oktagon. Her brawling style could give her the edge in this fight but I do think Yanan can prove to be the more technical boxer. She is my pick to earn the victory although I say so with no confidence at all. Wu Yanan by Decision
Nick: Lucie Pudilova will be fighting in the UFC for the first time since 2020. She makes her return here after she was cut following four consecutive losses. She has since turned in a 5-1 record for Oktagon in Czech Republic, but that run undoubtedly came against questionable competition. She is an aggressive striker who is more than content to stand and trade. She’s decent offensively, but she takes a lot of damage in exchanges. Wu hasn’t really developed into the level of fighter that many thought she would have before she debuted in the UFC. She has a decent kicking game, but her strikes don’t seem to do much damage and her overall grappling ability leaves a lot to be desired. Yanan is coming off three consecutive losses under the UFC banner and she’s likely fighting for her job in this spot. This is a low-level matchup and stylistically it seems evenly matched. I have little to no confidence in this play, but I’ll back Wu Yanan as she’s been more recently tested against top level competition. Wu Yanan by Decision

Merab Dvalishvili -140 vs Jose Aldo +115

Anthony: The featured bout is a matchup at bantamweight with Merab Dvalishvili facing Jose Aldo. This is by far the toughest test yet for Dvalishvili, facing a former champion and legend in the UFC. Aldo looks like his old self at age 35, still putting on elite striking performances and turning back the division’s young blood. It will be interesting to see his 90 percent takedown defense challenged by a grappler with this dynamic and high motor. There are few fighters that command my attention like Dvalishvili, who I will always tune in to watch perform. He enters this bout on a seven-fight win streak, extended most recently with a victory over Marlon Moraes. He fought back from the brink of defeat in that matchup and proved not only to have a great chin, but seemingly endless cardio. He averages more than seven takedowns per fight and simply smothers opponents by dragging them to the mat and working there. He will without a doubt get outclassed in striking exchanges against Aldo, but I think Merab ends up mounting a surprising amount of control time here. Especially with Aldo having a tougher weight cut than usual, a high-pressure fighter like this could get the better of him in a three-round fight. Dvalishvili will outwork Aldo and prove he is a legitimate title contender. Merab Dvalishvili by Decision
Nick: Merab might be the best pure wrestler on the roster at Bantamweight. He has shown an ability to score takedowns from a wide range of positions, as he’s set multiple UFC records for most takedowns in a fight. Dvalishvili averages more than 7 takedowns per 15 minutes. He almost always leans on his grappling to control position so most of his wins come via decision. He has strung together seven consecutive victories under the UFC banner, but he really hasn’t faced anyone near the level of Jose Aldo. Jose Aldo is now fighting at bantamweight, but he’s one of the greatest featherweights of all time. There is a decent chance he secures a title shot with a win in this spot, as he’s coming off impressive wins over three ranked opponents. Aldo is one of the more dangerous and pure strikers in the division. He throws powerful leg kicks, a snappy jab, and he does an excellent job stringing together lengthy combinations. The key to this matchup will not only be Dvalishvili’s ability to score takedowns on Aldo, but also to keep him grounded. Aldo is going to have a massive advantage in striking exchanges as Dvalishvili really only strikes as a means to set up his grappling. Given Aldo’s 90% takedown defense in the UFC and his massive advantages in both striking and experience, I’ll comfortably back him as an underdog in this spot. Dvalishvili certainly poses a threat in this spot, but we’ve seen him outstruck and in competitive fights against opponents nowhere near Aldo’s level. Jose Aldo by Round Two KO

Paulo Costa -370 vs Luke Rockhold +275

Anthony: Our co-main event is a banger at middleweight with Paulo Costa facing the former champion Luke Rockhold. Costa is coming off two straight losses after an undefeated start to his career. The adversity seems to have humbled him quite a bit and I think all signs point to a bounce back performance from Borrachinha here tonight. Against Marvin Vettori he proved to still be an explosive striker with speed and accuracy behind his attacks. This fight week he is in even better physical shape and draws an opponent not known one bit for his durability. Rockhold was knocked out in three of his previous four octagon appearances. A three-year absence from competition may prove to do Rockhold well strategically, but time away will not make a chin any tougher. Costa hits like a truck and it will only take a few clean shots landing to end the night early for Rockhold. Costa is probably the worst matchup he could draw in a return to action. Rockhold is a talented offensive grappler but really does not have the wrestling background to shoot for fifteen minutes straight, especially against an opponent built like this. I am expecting a highlight reel finish. Paulo Costa by Round One KO
Nick: Luke Rockhold will be returning to action here after a three-year layoff. He is an extremely talented athlete with excellent striking at range. He has a solid wrestling base, excellent BJJ, but there is certainly no denying he is a shell of who he was in his prime. Rockhold has been out of action for more than three years. He’s been KO’d brutally in three of his last four fights. At his best, I’d say he certainly has the tools to win in this spot. However, I question his durability and athleticism at 37-years old. Paulo Costa is a volume striker with plenty of power for a middleweight. He’s extremely aggressive and can eat shots to throw them, as we saw in his victory against Yoel Romero. If this goes to the scorecards Rockhold will have a very good chance to pull off the upset here. However, it seems far more likely Costa can find his chin within three rounds. Eleven of Costa’s fourteen professional victories have come via KO. I expect him to rush Rockhold early here and likely find a brutal finish. Paulo Costa by Round One KO

Kamaru Usman -370 vs Leon Edwards +275

Anthony: The main event decides the world welterweight championship as Leon Edwards will challenge Kamaru Usman. This is a rematch of a bout in 2015 which happens to be the most recent loss on Edwards’ record. Usman landed six of thirteen takedowns and proved to be the dominant fighter against a younger Edwards then. Both men have evolved significantly since with Edwards rattling off nine straight victories to earn another crack at the champ. Throughout his career we have seen a very good mix of power and technique from Edwards. It will certainly be Edwards landing the cleaner combinations on the feet in this fight but Usman’s pace and power can still claim him rounds while standing. My suspicion is that Usman once again utilizes a wrestling heavy attack to secure this victory. While recovering from a hand injury I am sure the champion’s camp had a heavier load of grappling rounds than the usual. Testing Edward’s takedown defense will be an early goal for Usman and I expect this fight to hit the ground rather quick. Becoming well-rounded has allowed Usman to be more selective when shooting and as a result his takedown accuracy is now nearly 50 percent. Elite cardio and durability makes the champion easy to trust and it seems he is still getting better with every octagon appearance. A knockout is the one real path to victory for Edwards and I think a fighter as sound as Usman leaves little to no openings for that seminal blow. And Still. Kamaru Usman by Decision
Nick: Since he began training under an excellent striking coach in Trevor Wittman, Usman and his overall boxing ability seems to improve every time we see him fight. And of course he is already a dominant wrestler. He will be looking to make his sixth consecutive title defense here, against a fighter he already has a win over in Leon Edwards. Since that loss to Usman back in 2015, Edwards has strung together ten consecutive wins. He’s a gifted striker that does an excellent job of moving in and out of his opponents’ range. His wrestling has undoubtedly improved since the first time these two squared off, but there is no doubt that his best chance to pull off an upset here is to keep this fight standing. I don’t really think Usman is anywhere near Edwards in terms of offensive striking ability, but he doesn’t really need to be in this spot. Edwards will find his shots, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to keep Usman from ultimately pressuring him up against the cage and down to the mat. No matter how you slice it, Usman has the clearer paths to victory here. He has no reason to stand and trade with Edwards for an extensive period of time and it seems very clear that his advantages on the mat are still greater than Edwards’ will be in exchanges. Additionally, Edwards will have to constantly be alert in case Usman shoots for a takedown. This could prevent his striking from really opening up to the best of his abilities. This fight should be competitive early, but I’m siding with Usman. He is the more well-rounded fighter, the more potent finisher, and I also like that he’ll be acclimated to fighting at a high elevation as he primarily trains in Colorado. And Still. Kamaru Usman by Round Four KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com promotional fight poster.