UFC 276 Analysis & Betting Tips

UFC 276: Adesanya vs Cannonier – 7.2.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 276: Adesanya vs Cannonier. Las Vegas has been full of action during International Fight Week and today it all culminates in a massive card headlined by two exciting title bouts. This event is loaded from top to bottom. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 165-91-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 163-93-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 7-1-2022 at 10pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 6:30pm EST

Jessica-Rose Clark -160 vs Julija Stoliarenko +130

Anthony: To start the card today we have a women’s bantamweight bout between Julija Stoliarenko and Jessica-Rose Clark. Both fighters are coming off a loss this February and looking to bounce back in a big way on this high-profile card. It feels like a fight that Stoliarenko desperately needs after starting her UFC career 0-3. She is a good submission grappler with refined judo but does appear to be a bit one-dimensional. Stoliarenko has secured an armbar in all but one of her professional wins. Jessica-Rose Clark is better than Stoliarenko in all other areas of the fight but it is hard to bet on her having just lost by armbar when facing Stephanie Egger. Clark should be able to touch up Stoliarenko while striking but I do worry about her defending takedowns and safely fighting her way back to the feet. I would not advise betting your hard-earned money on this matchup. Clark should get the win by decision but this is my least confident pick on the card. Jessica-Rose Clark by Decision
Nick: Jessica-Rose Clark is an effective and versatile striker. She lands nearly four significant strikes per minute and she carries a solid 59 percent striking defense. She has made serious improvements in her grappling as well. However, she was outclassed in that area her last time out against a decorated judoka in Stephanie Egger where she was submitted via armbar in the first round. She has found success against inferior grapplers as she averages nearly two takedowns per fifteen minutes. That being said, she’ll need to be careful here as her opponent finds most of her success on the mat. Julija Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with good enough BJJ to score her favorite submission from a variety of positions. She is 0-3 in the UFC, so there’s a good chance she ends up cut from the roster with another loss in this matchup. Prior to her UFC debut, eight of Stoliarenko’s nine professional wins had come via submission. She’s undoubtedly going to be hunting for an armbar here, but that really does feel like her only path to victory. I don’t recommend investing heavily on Clark in this spot. This is a low-level fight and we’ve seen her submitted before. That being said, I see her as the rightful favorite. She should be the better wrestler and striker in this matchup, with more paths to win. As long as she avoids Stoliarenko’s persistent armbar attempts this feels like a fight she should be able to win. Jessica-Rose Clark by Decision

Maycee Barber -310 vs Jessica Eye +240

Anthony: Next we have a fight at women’s flyweight between Maycee Barber and Jessica Eye. This fight is considerably higher level than the women’s fight that precedes it, but I do not think we see much competitive action here. Eye has been out of action for a full year and enters this bout on an 0-3 skid. The young prospect Barber should be a step ahead and have no problem outworking Eye in this matchup. Eye has had previous bookings with Casey O’Neill and Manon Fiorot fall apart, clearly signaling the UFC is using her to prop up more promising contenders. Barber is coming off two solid performances back-to-back against Miranda Maverick and Montana De La Rosa. She has the grappling advantage over Eye and may look for takedowns and offensive positions here. Barber is still developing as a striker but I think it is safe to expect she’ll outland Eye on the feet. Maycee Barber by Decision
Nick: Maycee Barber was once a highly regarded prospect who hit a bit of a wall back in 2020. She tore her ACL, falling as a massive favorite to Roxanne Modafferi and then dropped another decision to Alexa Grasso when she made her return in 2021. She has since regained some of her hype and momentum, as she’s coming off back-to-back impressive wins over Miranda Maverick and Montana De La Rosa. She continues to show improvements in all facets of her game. She averages nearly 4.5 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing two fewer. She’s now averaging 1.3 takedowns per fifteen minutes, and she’s shown an improved takedown defense that now sits at a decent 62 percent. Jessica Eye is a decent striker with solid footwork and defense. She does her best work grinding her opponents up against the cage, but her takedown defense has been a weakness in many of her recent matchups. If Eye can keep this fight mostly in the clinch she has a chance to pull away on the scorecards. That being said, I think it’s more likely we see Barber clinch her up and score takedowns in every round. The line certainly feels wide here as Eye has a considerable experience advantage in this matchup. That being said, she just hasn’t looked very good lately. Barber should be the stronger and more athletic fighter in this spot. Maycee Barber by Decision

Andre Muniz -350 vs Uriah Hall +265

Anthony: This is an interesting fight at middleweight with Uriah Hall taking on Andre Muniz. There are a lot of exciting 185ers on today’s card and Muniz is a rising prospect that rides an eight-fight winning streak into this matchup. While his UFC debut was lackluster, Muniz has since snatched up three straight wins by armbar. He is always looking to engage with opponents on the mat and lock up a submission early while both men are dry. He is the rightful favorite in this spot against a striker in Uriah Hall, but I am not sure that submission comes easy. Hall has never been submitted over the course of his career. He has solid takedown defense and still poses a threat striking that certainly discourages sloppy attempts. I could see Muniz really struggling to close the distance early and getting stuck at range in this fight. Hall is always a tempting underdog but bettors can never feel confident given his low work rate on the feet. Still, I think he warrants a good look here given the current odds. Muniz has mediocre striking and I really think his only path to victory is by snatching up an arm. I believe that over the course of fifteen minutes Hall can defend shots and take control of this fight on the feet. Uriah Hall by Decision
Nick: This is, in many ways, a classic striker versus grappler matchup. Fifteen of Muniz’ twenty-two professional victories have come by way of submission. He hasn’t lost since 2016, and after a massive win by submission over Eryk Anders and Jacare Souza, many consider him to be one of the most dangerous grapplers there is in the world at 185 pounds. Muniz averages 3.6 takedowns per fifteen minutes. I fully expect him to try to ground Hall and score another submission in this spot. Uriah Hall was once considered a future title contender, but he seemingly plateaued over the past few years. Hall’s technical striking and power advantages here will be significant and seven of his last eight victories have come via Knockout. He’s a highly technical kickboxer, but he’s often criticized for his lack of volume and urgency. He was most recently dominated by Sean Strickland, a fight in which he was picked apart by Strickland’s jab and dominated for five rounds. He boasts a decent 65 percent takedown defense, but I expect Muniz to be relentless in his pursuit of takedowns in this matchup. It is notable that Hall has never been submitted, but Muniz poses a threat on the ground above anything he’s seen in years. Hall will be live for a KO upset if he can keep this fight standing, but I expect Muniz can ground him and work for an early finish. This feels like a matchup of two middleweights headed in opposite directions. Andre Muniz by Round One Submission

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Dricus Du Plessis -160 vs Brad Tavares +130

Anthony: The preliminary card will be simulcast on ABC and starts with a middleweight fight between Brad Tavares and Dricus Du Plessis. This is yet another matchup with a division gatekeeper taking on a new contender. Du Plessis has performed great in his two bouts since joining the UFC. He is a physical specimen with very good hands and a nasty guillotine choke. He has put on a show in a lot of good overseas promotions with excellent kickboxing and a finish in every victory. He should have no problem defending the pressure boxing of Tavares and we likely see him really open up offensively as this fight progresses. I believe Du Plessis will have no problem picking Tavares apart tonight. He has the advantage in terms of size and physical strength. While each should have moments employing forward pressure, I think Du Plessis will handle the push and pull better than Tavares has proven capable. It has been a long time since Tavares fought someone with this kind of power. Dricus Du Plessis by Round Two KO
Nick: This is only Du Plessis’ third fight under the UFC banner. However, he already has plenty of experience as a highly regarded prospect with a fairly impressive resume at 16-2. A former KSW Middleweight Champion, Du Plessis throws a ton of volume on the feet. He has a lot in all of his limbs, but he’s also competent on the mat with nine professional wins coming via submission. He averages nearly three takedowns per fifteen minutes, but most of his success has come on the feet landing timely counter shots. Brad Tavares is a talented vet who has been ranked at middleweight for years. He’s coming off back-to-back decision wins over Omari Akhmedov and Antonio Carlos Junior, but we haven’t seen him in action since July of 2021. He does a good job mixing in leg kicks to keep his opponents at range. He works well behind his jab, he throws meaningful shots and we’ve seen his chin tested on multiple occasions. He has an impressive 79% takedown defense which is certainly important against Du Plessis. Du Plessis is the more potent finisher in this matchup. However, Tavares likely has considerable technical advantages on the feet. As dangerous as Du Plessis is, he’s very awkward in his movements and his footwork sometimes leaves him in positions to be countered. Du Plessis’ highlights have been impressive, but his KO wins in the UFC came over Markus Perez who is no longer on the roster and Trevin Giles who usually fights at welterweight. Du Plessis is live for a KO here, but I see Tavares as the far more experienced and well-rounded of the two. As long as he tucks his chin in exchanges, he should be able to work behind his leg kicks on a way to another decision win. Brad Tavares by Decision

Ian Garry -190 vs Gabe Green +155

Anthony: Next we have a matchup at welterweight between Gabe Green and the undefeated Ian Garry. These two fighters are staying active after picking up wins in the octagon not long ago. Green was knocked down a few times against Yohan Lainesse but ultimately proved to be better offensively and defensively en route to a second-round finish. He will be looking to pressure and make things scrappy once again here against a fighter in Garry that is far sounder technically. Garry has excellent feints, great footwork and very impressive agility for this weight class. He can also get kicks up to the head in a snap. Garry is just 24 years old but he has shown a level of maturity that makes me comfortable trusting him. He has really evolved as a fighter since joining Sanford MMA and while his last fight was not very pleasing aesthetically, Garry fought very smart and secured himself a win. He is drawing easy fights to help build his brand and Green is not the kind of opponent that I expect to be a worthy test. Garry will land the better counters and likely dish out more damage than what he takes in this matchup. Ian Garry by Decision
Nick: Ian Garry enters this fight as a heavily hyped prospect and a former Cage Warriors Welterweight Champion. He’s still developing as a prospect as he’s only 9-0. However, he already seems to be very well rounded. His striking continues to improve, he has powerful hips, and enough power standing and ability on the mat to find success against a wide range of opponents. He’s coming off back-to-back UFC wins over low-level opponents in Darian Weeks and Jordan Williams, so it will be interesting to see how he fairs here against a decent step up in terms of level of competition. Green has excellent cardio, he’s well-rounded and he does a good job rolling with punches in exchanges. His chin seems solid and while he can be slow and ploddy at times, he does do a good job throwing combinations once he can find proper openings. This was evident in his most recent win over Yohan Lainesse. Green took a lot of clean shots early in that fight, but he had a superior chin and cardio compared to Lainesse and ultimately knocked him out late in the second round. Green throws a lot of volume as he averages 6.28 significant strikes landed per fifteen minutes. However, he also eats a lot of strikes as well as he absorbs 6.61 per fifteen minutes. We have yet to see Garry pursue a takedown in the UFC, but he has decent BJJ and wrestling ability. I actually expect he’ll mix in his grappling here. Green will have an experience advantage here as we’ve seen him tested more extensively against top competition. However, stylistically this feels like a matchup Garry should thrive in. Garry is an excellent counter striker and I expect Green to keep coming forward. Additionally, he should be able to mix in his superior grappling if he’s falling behind in exchanges. Another low confidence play, but Garry is the pick. Ian Garry by Decision

Jim Miller -190 vs Donald Cerrone +155

Anthony: This rematch between Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone is going to be banger. These are two grizzled veterans that have been staples of the UFC roster for an incredibly long time. Miller and Cerrone are currently tied for the most wins in UFC history at 23, and the winner of this fight will have sole possession of that achievement. I am happy to see these two older guys paired with one another rather than fighting opponents ranked much higher. Cowboy enters tonight on an 0-5-1 skid and this is likely going to be his final fight. To be honest he has looked a shell of himself in recent bouts as a lifetime of damage has caused him to crack rather quickly under pressure, and fade in the very first round of fights. I am expecting a brawl out of these two and while neither is as durable or quick as they once were, they still can land cracking shots. Miller looks like he fights in quicksand nowadays and I do not think the bump up to 170 pounds results in a more agile performance. He is undersized and at a bit of a disadvantage on short notice here, but I do think Miller can put his hands on Cerrone and end this fight quickly. I am expecting A-10 to avenge his loss from 2014 and prove he is not ready to ride off into the sunset just yet. Jim Miller by Round One KO
Nick: We have what should be a fun matchup here between two accomplished UFC vets that are both past their respective primes. Cerrone is extremely well-rounded with excellent kickboxing and BJJ. The issue though, is that it seems he has mostly abandoned his skills in favor of putting on a show in his recent fights. If he loses this fight, it seems extremely likely that this is his last fight with the UFC. Additionally, he has been taking damage poorly of late. In many of his recent fights, we see him rushed and taken out quickly before he can find any sort of rhythm. Jim Miller is one of the more accomplished veterans on the UFC roster. He’s a decent striker, but he’s found most of his success on the mat. He has excellent BJJ and eighteen of his thirty-four professional wins have come via submission. Miller is coming off back-to-back KO victories over young prospects in Nikolas Motta and Erick Gonzalez. He’s been far more active than Cerrone, and he’s also found success against tougher competition. This fight will be taking place at 170 pounds, which should benefit both fighters as they don’t have to cut weight as they get up there in age. Still, this doesn’t change the fact that Cerrone had to cut weight twice to 155 since May 7th, for his two matchups against Joe Lauzon that were both called off on fight day. Miller has become known as a one round fighter, and Cerrone has become known as a slow starter that struggles to get out of the first round. The line has gotten two wide here as Cerrone should have technical advantages if he can stretch this out, but I feel it’s fairly likely Miller can rush him and catch him in the first. Jim Miller by Round One KO

Jalin Turner -150 vs Brad Riddell +125

Anthony: Closing out the preliminary card is a great lightweight matchup between Jalin Turner and Brad Riddell. Surely sharing a training camp with the card’s two headliners is to the benefit of Riddell looking to bounce back in a big way here. It was not surprising to see Riddell touched up by an elite striker like Rafael Fiziev, and today’s draw of Turner is a much more manageable task for him on the feet. Riddell is a good kickboxer but his grit and overall toughness is what makes him such a handful for opponents. Turner is a freak athlete at lightweight with a long frame and very technical striking. We have seen Turner really put his hands together in recent fights while also displaying great proficiency on the mat. I think that Riddell holds a slight edge in terms of offensive grappling here but honestly these two fighters are matched incredibly well. Turner may be a step ahead on the feet but Riddell’s knowledge of range may allow him to find more openings than Turner as these two go back and forth. My pick is Riddell just slightly given the higher level of competition we have seen him succeed well against. It is close to a coinflip fight so of course the underdog side in Riddell gets my action. Brad Riddell by Decision
Nick: Jalin Turner is a well-rounded fighter who’s greatest strength is his surprisingly long reach and length for the division. He does an excellent job using his long frame to keep opponents at a distance. He has enough power in his shots to end a fight early with a single strike, but it’s mostly the volume with his jab that makes him so effective. All twelve of Turner’s professional victories have come by way of finish. At 27-years old, it seems Turner is hitting his prime. He seems to have filled out his wiry frame, his punches are landing cleaner and he’s made dramatic improvements in his BJJ and wrestling. He’s coming off four consecutive wins, all by finish. He most recently KO’d Jamie Mullarkey, a fighter who has become somewhat known for his solid chin and durability. Riddell is an extremely high-level kickboxer and a former striking coach out of Tiger Muay Thai. He has near perfect footwork, he lands nearly five significant strikes per minute and at 10-2 he continues to show improvements in all facets of his game. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss to Rafael Fiziev, but Fiziev is widely considered a top ten lightweight in the world. Turner is going to have to work behind his jab here. Riddell is going to be extremely dangerous when exchanges take place at close range, but I expect Turner should be able to rely on his six-inch reach advantage to control the distance of which this fight takes place. Another tough one to call, but I think Turner gets it done. Jalin Turner by Round Two Submission

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Sean O’Malley -285 vs Pedro Munhoz +225

Anthony: The main card opens with Suga Sean O’Malley tonight. He will be facing Pedro Munhoz here at bantamweight in what is really an excellent test as he ascends into the top ten rankings. O’Malley’s striking is second to none at bantamweight. He is going to absolutely pick apart Munhoz on the feet, confusing him with his entries and landing long combinations to the body and head. I expect a lot of early calf kicks for Munhoz as he tries to chop down O’Malley and potentially bring things to the mat where he is at less of a disadvantage. Sean has a seven-inch reach advantage over Munhoz and much better weapons from range. While Munhoz is a powerful puncher he really will have issues closing the distance against somebody of this size. With all his experience I think Munhoz holds up well early in this fight but eventually does start to get tagged a bit too often. It is hard to bet against his chin after seeing him eat clean bombs from Cody Garbrandt but it is abundantly clear Munhoz is starting to lose a step. I think Suga Sean has a very good chance at being the first man to stop Pedro Munhoz. Sean O’Malley by Round Two KO
Nick: Sean O’Malley has a ridiculous amount of hype behind him right now. He has been winning convincingly with highlight reel knockouts, but most of them have come against mediocre competition. He’s extremely fast with phenomenal striking ability and does an excellent job baiting his opponents with feints. What he lacks in one shot power, he more than makes up for with speed and precision. He has a ridiculous +4.74 striking differential which is amongst the best on the entire UFC roster. Pedro Munhoz represents a major step up in competition for O’Malley here. He has notable wins over Rob Font, Jimmie Rivera, and Brett Johns. He’s extremely well-rounded with a decent wrestling base and surprising power for a bantamweight. He’s coming off back-to-back losses, but they came to former champions in Jose Aldo and Dominick Cruz. Munhoz’s best weapon has certainly been his leg kicks of late, which has been a weakness of O’Malley’s in the past. That being said, O’Malley is going to have a 7” reach advantage in this matchup. I expect he’ll be the much faster fighter here and his ability to switch stances should protect him from Munhoz’s kicks. The line has gotten a bit out of hand, but O’Malley is the rightful favorite. I see him peppering Munhoz at range and taking this one on the scorecards. Sean O’Malley by Decision

Robbie Lawler -110 vs Bryan Barberena -110

Anthony: Two more veterans go to war next with Bryan Barberena taking on former champion Robbie Lawler. Barberena put on a show with Matt Brown this March, earning Fight of the Night and a very close split decision win. I thought Brown was more deserving of the victory there but Barberena once again unloaded early and showed a willingness to stand and trade with anybody. Lawler is coming off a bit of a brawl himself as he finished Nick Diaz in his return. That has been Lawler’s first win in a while but he has stayed fighting the elite of this division for the past decade, never taking an easy fight. Barberena is a good challenge for Lawler at this stage of their careers but I do expect Lawler to put on another strong performance. He still has relentless pressure and expendable cardio that makes him tough for a guy like Barberena who has been overwhelmed at times in the past. At the age of 40 I am not in a rush to bet on Lawler, but it feels like a matchup where he will thrive stylistically. I could see him finding a finish in the second or third round. Robbie Lawler by Decision
Nick: We have an extremely fun matchup here between two 170-pound vets that are content to stand and trade in the pocket. Robbie Lawler is a former champion at 170 pounds, with notable wins over Carlos Condit, Rory MacDonald and most recently Nick Diaz. He’s a powerful brawler who is technically sound everywhere, but he’s most content to stand and trade on the feet. The biggest concern in backing Lawler here is he doesn’t throw a ton of volume. He’s sometimes a bit too content to wait to counter which means he can fall behind on the scorecards. Barberena has fought some of the toughest welterweights in the UFC. He’s primarily a brawler. While it is evident he’s past his prime, he’s still very dangerous when striking at range or out of breaks. Lawler is the older fighter here, but Barberena seems to have taken more damage. Barberena has endured several lifesaving surgical procedures and in his last fight against Matt Brown, he was rocked several times against a far less dangerous striker compared to Lawler. Barberena is going to throw more volume here, as he averages nearly two more significant strikes landed than Lawler does per minute. However, I see Lawler having considerable technical advantages on the feet. I see him landing the cleaner and more damaging shots even if he starts out slow. This is a close one to call, but Lawler is the pick. Robbie Lawler by Decision

Sean Strickland -135 vs Alex Pereira +110

Anthony: The featured bout is a title eliminator at middleweight with the streaking Sean Strickland taking on Alex Poatan Pereira. This division is lacking contenders and the UFC is making a push for Pereira here fighting the same card as Israel Adesanya. He draws a veteran fighter in Sean Strickland that has put in the work to deserve a title shot. The five-fight win streak since returning from injury has largely come thanks to Strickland’s crisp boxing and strong striking efficiency. I think he needs to put ego aside and rely on his grappling here if he wants any chance at winning. Pereira is absolutely lethal and one mistake by Strickland will result in an early night. His best attack is a cracking left hook that he could very likely land flush here in a boxing exchange. Poatan also has knees and lower body attacks that Strickland will be susceptible to eating as he searches for points of entry. Pereira was able to stuff six of eight takedown attempts against a true grappler in Bruno Silva. I think his huge frame and experience rolling with Glover Teixeira ensures that Strickland will not handle him on the mat for very long. Somebody can hold down Pereira and easily win a fight on top, but I do not think Strickland is the kind of fighter to enjoy that much success grappling. At even odds this is a bet I am confident making. Alex Pereira by Round One KO
Nick: Alex Pereira is a world champion kickboxer, touted as the only man to ever knockout Israel Adesanya. He moves fluidly on his feet. He has outstanding footwork and head movement and in terms of overall technical ability there’s no denying he’s one of the best strikers on the roster. There is a major hole in his game as he has very little grappling ability, but he’s been training under Glover Teixeira so there’s a good chance he’ll continue to show improvements on the mat. He’s coming off a hard-fought win over Bruno Silva via decision. His cardio and durability were both on display in that spot. He was caught by SIlva a few times, but he outlasted SIlva and mostly dominated the exchanges in the third round. Silva, a below average grappler, was able to take him down with relative ease. Pereira’s cardio held up well, but he certainly didn’t look like his next fight would be a title eliminator. Strickland comes into this fight on an impressive six-fight win streak. He’s an extremely talented kickboxer with excellent takedown defense and underrated BJJ. He does an excellent job countering against a wide range of strikers, and his technical boxing ability is amongst the class of the division. He has excellent footwork and head movement, which is evident by his solid 65 percent striking defense. He pushes a serious pace and he does an excellent job weaponizing his cardio. As content he is to stand and trade, I expect he’ll engage in some grappling here. He’s going to be the best wrestler and BJJ player Pereira has faced to date, and in interviews leading up to this matchup it seems Strickland is willing to lean on that part of his game. As outstanding as Pereira is as a kickboxer, this is a different sport entirely. Strickland simply feels like too much too soon here. As long as he avoids the big power shots coming back at him, he has a very clear path to victory in this matchup via wrestling and his superior BJJ. Sean Strickland by Round Two Submission

Alexander Volkanovski -190 vs Max Holloway +155

Anthony: The co-main event will decide the featherweight championship as Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski fight for the third time. We are being treated to this trilogy despite the fact Volkanovski has emerged victorious in the previous two bouts. Holloway has defended his ranking at number one and proven to be the next best guy at 145 pounds. Both men have developed a lot since they last shared the octagon with one another. However, I still think we get a very similar fight here in comparison to the first two. Volkanovski understands that Holloway’s power is not a major threat and as a result he will once again be the aggressor. He will be landing kicks and mixing things up far more than Holloway on the feet, while it should mostly be the boxing once again coming back the other way from Max. Being such an active champion with performances like Volkanovski makes him a tough fighter to fade. Holloway is an attractive underdog bet given the chess match we anticipate from these two, but I really think Volkanovski remains a few levels ahead of him. Holloway kept things competitive with Yair Rodriguez in his last fight, while none of the champion’s matchups have been competitive as of late. If anybody is to get a finish in this bout it is Volkanovski and I think it is a safe bet that he takes a few rounds pretty clearly. He can mix in takedowns as needed in a fight he trails or even look to find a finish on the mat in the late championship rounds. I do not think he cracks the chin of Holloway in this matchup but Volkanovski will connect with the bigger shots. And still. Alexander Volkanovski by Decision
Nick: This is the third time we’ve seen this matchup between the two best featherweights in the world. Both of these guys are ranked in the top ten in terms of pound-for-pound rankings, they’ve both defeated former champions, they’ve both held the belt, and they are both amongst the more exciting fighters on the UFC roster. In their first matchup Volkanovski won somewhat convincingly, but in the rematch Volkanovski won a very close and controversial decision. Dana White himself suggested Holloway was robbed in that spot, which is likely the reason we’re seeing this matchup for the third time in less than three years. Volkanovski has an extremely high Fight IQ. He’s a gifted striker who does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations. He does a good job closing distance against taller opponents and his low and powerful base makes him difficult to takedown. He’s capable of finding entries for takedowns, but he’s most comfortable fighting on the feet. Volkanovski does an excellent job baiting his opponents with feints. He’s very difficult for his opponents to read and he makes them pay whenever they try to put him on the defensive. Holloway holds most volume/output striking records, not only at featherweight, but across all of the UFC. He has outstanding head movement, near flawless footwork, and against inferior strikers he’s known to put on unforgettable performances. He showed a willingness to grapple his last time out against Yair Rodriguez, but I fully expect him to mostly stand and trade here as he looks to recapture the title. This is an extremely close matchup and a fight I could see going either way. For that reason, I’m going to take the value of the underdog. I feel the line is a bit inflated because of how dominant Volkanovski looked his last time out against The Korean Zombie. However, Holloway is levels above TKZ at this point in their respective careers. In a lot of these ‘coin-flip’ type spots we’ve seen the judges side with underdogs lately. Additionally, I felt Holloway was robbed the last time these two squared off. I like that he’s going to have the support of the crowd here and in interviews leading up to this fight he seems as focused and motivated as ever. I just can’t justify backing Volkanovski as a near two to one favorite. And new. Max Holloway by Decision

Israel Adesanya -500 vs Jared Cannonier +350

Anthony: The main event will see Israel Adesanya look to defend his middleweight title against the challenger Jared Cannonier. The champion has looked untouchable in this division and this seems like a fight he will once again have a clear technical edge over his opponent. When engaged at a moderate pace with Adesanya opponents are unable to land cleanly, cut angles or keep sustained pressure. Cannonier will need to take chances early and make this a more chaotic fight in order to get his hand raised today. I see him taking an aggressive approach with hopes of connecting on just one punch to hurt the champion. Ultimately, I trust Adesanya to stay safe defensively and dish out effective counter striking over the course of five rounds if needed. He is so much more versatile in terms of his attacks when compared to Cannonier. Watch how Adesanya utilizes kicks in this fight and attacks from both stances. Cannonier is a legitimate contender, but it would be hard to mistake him as a pound-for-pound great. The 5-1 run since moving to middleweight earned Cannonier this title shot but I think it is telling he was outclassed by Robert Whittaker when they crossed paths at UFC 254. Adesanya is on another level in terms of kickboxing and I am not expecting Cannonier to really land much at all in these exchanges. This performance will look similar to that of Adesanya against Costa and I once again am all over him in this spot. Adesanya has become a massive star, and it is telling that he is the final fighter to make the walk on a huge event this International Fight Week. Action on him has driven this line quite a ways from -350 but I still think he is still somebody you can trust to close out your parlays. He is miles ahead of these guys. And still. Israel Adesanya by Round Three KO
Nick: Israel Adesanya has established himself as a star in the sport and a great champion at 185 pounds. In most of his fights, we see Adesanya pick his opponents apart at range on the feet. He’s a gifted kickboxer with outstanding accuracy. He doesn’t carry massive power, but he relies on timely combinations to overwhelm his opponents and when he does he’s capable of finishing a fight inside the distance. Cannonier’s greatest strength is certainly his powerful striking ability. As a former heavyweight, he has true KO power at 185 and if he can find a shot to land, he’s capable of putting anyone to sleep. Cannonier would be wise to try to mix in some wrestling here, but Adesanya sports an excellent 77 percent takedown defense. Cannonier has a puncher’s chance in this matchup, but that’s really it. I expect Adesanya to work well at range here, strike out of both stances as he keeps Cannonier guessing and confused. Adesanya does an excellent job throwing feints to bait his opponents into counters, and I expect he can do that here against a powerful but also fairly predictable striker in Cannonier. The line has gotten a bit wide, but Adesanya is very clearly the pick. I expect he’ll frustrate Cannonier here, tire him out, and then finish him in the later rounds. And still. Israel Adesanya by Round Four KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_