Just over three years ago, the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs completed an intraprovincial trade that few would have predicted that fans would still be talking about in 2022.
Ottawa receives: Connor Brown, Nikita Zaitsev, Michael Carcone
Toronto receives: Cody Ceci, Ben Harpur, Aaron Luchuk, a 2020 3rd round pick
Although there were several assets moved, there are only three important players in this deal. Those were: Cody Ceci, Connor Brown, and Nikita Zaitsev.
At the time, the trade looked like a swap of two defenseman who were struggling in their Canadian markets. Ceci was a Senator that was highly touted when drafted, but his last few seasons saw him take on too much defensive responsibility. Meanwhile Nikita Zaitsev was underwhelming in his three seasons in Toronto, after signing from the KHL.
Following his rookie season in 2016-17, which saw him put up a respectable 36 points in 82 games, GM Lou Lamoriello signed him to a 7-year deal ($4.5 million AAV) through to the summer of 2024. For the next two years, Zaitsev received mixed reviews from Leafs fans, ultimately leading to the trade to Ottawa on July 1st, 2019, where he remains today.
He’s now played 3 seasons in a Senators uniform, mostly paired up with star blueliner Thomas Chabot. However, this year fans saw his responsibility decrease on the back end. In his first two seasons as a Senator, he played 22-23 minutes a night. This past year, it dropped to 19 minutes. With multiple young defensemen now on the cusp of the NHL, it’s no secret that the Senators are trying to move his 4.5-million-dollar cap hit.
As convenient as it would be to have Zaitsev’s contract off the books, the Sens would undoubtedly need to include a “sweetener” in any potential trade. And depending how big that extra asset is largely dictates whether a theoretical deal is worthwhile for Ottawa.
Though his on ice play has been “less than inspiring” to put it mildly, allow me for a moment to play devil’s advocate as to what the Senators can do should they decide not to move Zaitsev this summer. Buckle up.
Who is Ottawa’s 7th defenseman next year?
As of right now, the Senators have 9 defenseman that could compete for an NHL spot. This is Ottawa’s defensive depth chart as of July 26th:
Backbone of the Blueline: Thomas Chabot, Artem Zub
These two are fixtures in the top 4 and should be key pieces going forward.
Ready to Make the Jump?: Jake Sanderson, Lassi Thomson, Jacob Bernard-Docker
Sanderson, Thomson, and Bernard-Docker are all 1st round picks and should never be healthy scratches at this stage of their careers. Development is the priority for these three, though many will argue Sanderson is ready to make the jump without any seasoning required in Belleville.
Bottom pairing defensemen: Nick Holden, Travis Hamonic, Erik Brannstrom
Holden and Hamonic played themselves into a regular spot with their strong performances down the stretch last year. Brannstrom, only 22, needs to be a regular as he’s now reached the “prove it” stage of his career with the Sens.
Which leaves Zaitsev. Injuries happen, and though he wouldn’t be someone you want to lean on for 20 minutes a night for 82 games, he could fill in if the injury bug rears its ugly head in 2022-23. Granted $4.5M is a heck of a price to have someone watch from the pressbox, but Ottawa does still have $10.8M in cap space at the moment, so this isn’t a Vegas/Tampa like situation here.
The price will be high
Players with 2 years left on high cap hit contracts tend to command a hefty price. If we go back to July 2021, these were deals that would look similar to a Zaitsev trade.
Arizona Receives: Andrew Ladd ($5.5 million), 2021 2nd round pick, 2022 2nd round pick, 2023 3rd round pick
New York Islanders receives: Future Considerations
Arizona Coyotes: Shane Gostisbehere ($4.5 million), 2022 2nd round pick, 2022 7th round pick
Philadelphia receives: Future Considerations
Arizona receives: Patrick Nemeth ($2.5 million), 2024 3rd round pick, 2025 2nd round pick
New York Rangers receive: Ty Emberson
If the Senators give up Zaitsev, they’ll be looking at shipping out a couple 2nd round picks and maybe another prospect. If they were up against the cap for this season, I could understand why they would want to move Zaitsev as soon as possible. But that isn’t the case here.
Of note, Zaitsev was recently paid 2 out of his $4.5 million in a signing bonus on July 1st. Meaning whoever has him on their roster will only be paying him $2.5 million for the rest of the season.
Cap space for 2022-23
As of right now, the Senators have just under $11 million dollars in cap space to sign: Alex Formenton, Mathieu Joseph, and Erik Brannstrom. Unless they all sign long term deals, all three should cost around $7-8 million in total cap hit. That will leave around $3-4 million dollars in cap space, with no players left to sign. If the Senators were tight on money, it would make sense to move a couple million dollars of salary if you have no expectations on using that player. However next summer, multiple players will be due for raises. Those include Tim Stutzle, Alex Debrincat, Shane Pinto and Artem Zub. At that point, Zaitsev will only have one year left on his contract and may not require as many assets being added on to move him.
Senators fans have been vocal about trading Zaitsev because of his play and contract. However, Tim Stutzle, Shane Pinto and Jake Sanderson will on be on their ELC’s for this year, meaning Zaitsev’s contract isn’t going to be an anchor on the salary cap quite yet.
Should Zaitsev be playing top 4 minutes this season? I think that experiment has expired. But the Senators have options. Lassi Thomson or Jacob Bernard-Docker could be ready for those minutes. If having Zaitsev as your 6th or 7th defenseman is your biggest issue, your team is in a pretty good position. If Zaitsev is traded, it needs to be at a reasonable price. But Sens fans need to have an expectation that he might still be an Ottawa Senator this upcoming fall.
If the price is right, by all means move him. But if the issue has more to do with DJ Smith’s insistence on dressing him every night, then that’s a conversation that needs to be addressed with the coaching staff, and not by attaching multiple draft picks to ensure Zaitsev doesn’t take away ice time from the future of the Sens blue line.
-Damian Smith
Twitter: @Damian__Smith
Photo: Frankie Fouganthin. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.