Happy Monday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (6/27) MLB slate. The weather is warming up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
Just when we start to turn the corner, we come crashing down with an 0-3 night last time out. So we fell to a 22-23 record on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Monday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s recapture that momentum tonight as we head into the dog days of summer.
Season Record: (22-23)
Oakland Athletics @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees Team Total, Over 5.5 Runs (EVEN)
Paul Blackburn allowed 7 ER to Seattle last time out, and he’s allowed 4+ ER in three of his last five outings. I expect he’s going to continue to regress statistically as his 4.21 xFIP still sits more than a full point higher than his 2.97 ERA. The Yankees projected starting lineup is pushing a .200 ISO against RHP on the season. They have scored more runs than any other team in baseball this season with 367 and they’ve hit the most HRs in baseball with 121.
The Athletics have the 2nd worst bullpen ERA in the AL with an ugly 4.49, so in addition to their favorable match-up against Blackburn, the Yankees are going to have an upside against this Oakland bullpen. I’m happy to jump on the over for the Yankees team total here at 5.5 for a solid EVEN money price.
Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Texas Rangers, Money line, -140
Kris Bubic comes into this start with a 5.07 xFIP, allowing a 44.4% hard contact rate. The Rangers projected starting lineup has been outstanding against LHP, boasting an excellent .233 ISO in 2022. As a team, they have a solid .750 OPS against LHP this season, so I’m liking them a lot here to score a few runs on Bubic.
Martin Perez remains in excellent form, coming off back-to-back quality starts. He has an outstanding 1.76 Road ERA this season, and he’s holding both RHH and LHH to a sub .080 ISO in 2022. The Royals will once again be without Salvador Perez, and their projected starters come into this match-up with an ugly .296 wOBA against LHP. The Royals bullpen comes into this start with an ugly 4.71 ERA and the Rangers are boasting a respectable 3.42. I’m a bit surprised by the value we’re getting on the Rangers money line in this spot. I’m more than happy to back them to win at -140.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies @ 8:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Team Total, Over 6.5 Runs (-125)
Chad Kuhl comes into this start with a 5.31 xFIP on the season. He’s allowed a combined 11 ER over his last three starts. The Dodgers have the 3rd most runs scored in baseball this season with 364, and the second most on the road this season with 202.
While it’s obviously not ideal they’ll be without Mookie Betts, their projected starting lineup has a .199 ISO against RHP since the start of 2021. They’re going to benefit from hitting in the thin air of Coors Field here, and the Rockies have the 2nd worst bullpen ERA in baseball in 2022 with a spotty 4.72. The 6.5 team total for the Dodgers feels a bit inflated, but considering the ballpark and the match-up – there is value on the over at just -125.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS