Happy Tuesday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (6/28) MLB slate. The weather is warming up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 2-1 record on last night’s picks, so we improved to a 24-24 record on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things have been a lot better than they seem lately. We have a solid Tuesday late here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s continue to build momentum tonight as we head into the dog days of summer.
Season Record: (24-24)
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 9.5 Runs (EVEN)
Jose Quintana is due for continued regression as his 4.55 xFIP sits nearly a full point higher than his 3.60 ERA. He’s been considerably worse on the road this season and he’s in spotty form as he has a 5.63 ERA so far in June. There is no denying that this Nationals offense is mostly mediocre, but they have the 3rd most hits in the MLB against LHP this season (201) trailing only the Rockies and the Phillies.
Patrick Corbin continues to struggle, as his xFIP sits at an ugly 4.96. He’s allowing a .200+ ISO to both RHH and LHH and his 51.7% Hard Contact Rate allowed is certainly cause for some concern. This Pirates offense has seen a major boost with the promotion of prospects like O’Neill Cruz and Jack Suwinski, as well as the return of Ke’Bryan Hayes from the IL. Both the Nationals and the Pirates bullpens rank in the bottom third in the league in terms of ERA. The game total sits at 9.5 here, but I’ll happily jump on it at a favorable price of EVEN money.
Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 EST
Nick’s Pick: St. Louis Cardinals, Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (-105)
Braxton Garrett is a talented young arm, but he’s still developing as a prospect. He comes into this start with a spotty 4.68 xFIP, allowing a 47.5% Hard Contact Rate to opposing hitters.
Against LHP, the Cardinals are one of the best hitting teams in baseball. Their projected starting lineup has a solid .192 ISO against LHP in 2022, anchored by Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado who both carry a .370+ ISO against LHP this season. The Marlins bullpen ranks 23rd in the MLB with a shaky 4.35 ERA. I really like the Over on the Cardinals 4.5 run team total here at an extremely favorable price of -105.
Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Texas Rangers, Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (-120)
Jonathan Heasley has been one of the worst SPs in baseball. He comes into this start carrying a brutal 5.96 xFIP, allowing a .338 ISO to lefties. The Rangers projected starting lineup includes seven left-handed hitters. The Rangers are coming off a 10 Run game and once they chase Heasley they’ll have continued upside against the Royals 29th Ranked bullpen by ERA (4.74).
This Rangers offense is finally starting to heat up, and there’s clear value on the Over of their 4.5 run team total at an excellent price of just -120.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS