Happy Wednesday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (6/22) MLB slate. The weather is warming up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We went 3-0 last time out, so we improved to a flat 20-20 record on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Wednesday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s build on our recent momentum tonight as we head into the dog days of summer.
Season Record: (20-20)
Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 8.5 Runs (-135)
Tyler Wells has been struggling more than his surface numbers might suggest. He’s coming off back-to-back quality starts for the first time this season, but he’s due for considerable regression as he comes in allowing a .244 BABIP with an ERA nearly two full points lower than his ugly 5.57 xFIP.
Patrick Corbin comes into this start with a 4.90 xFIP, allowing a near .200 ISO to opposing hitters. He has allowed 3+ ER in six of his last seven outings and 7+ hits in six consecutive starts. The Nationals have the 5th worst bullpen ERA in baseball with a 4.40.
While neither of these offenses are all that imposing, it feels like we’re getting some value on the game total over 8.5 Runs here at a reasonable price of -135.
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels @ 9:49 EST
Nick’s Pick: Los Angeles Angels, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-130)
Daniel Lynch looked excellent his last time out, but that came in an outing against the lowly Athletics. He’s in a much more difficult match-up tonight against the Angels, and he comes into this start with a spotty 5.23 xFIP on the season. Additionally, Lynch is sporting an ugly 51% Hard Contact Rate and 40% Fly Ball Rate in 2022.
The Angels offense has the 3rd most HRs in the AL with 88 in 2022, and I fully expect them to knock out a few more in this match-up. The Angels Team Total is at a reasonable 4.5 here at a price of -130. I’m happy to back the over, especially considering how taxed their bullpen is coming off last night’s extra innings affair.
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 8.5 Runs (-145)
Jerad Eickoff will be making his 2022 debut at the MLB level in this spot. He’s carrying an ugly 4.84 ERA across 13 AAA appearances in 2022. Given his struggles at the minor league level, I really don’t expect him to find much success upon this promotion.
Keegan Thompson has allowed 3+ ER in 3 of his last four outings. This Pirates offense is seeing a dramatic boost in production following the promotion of prospects like O’neill Cruz, Bligh Madris, and Jack Suwinski. While PNC park is certainly more favorable for pitchers, I still like the game total to go over 8.5 Runs here at a reasonable price of -145. The Pirates have scored 7+ runs in three of their last four games played. The Cubs’ offense has perhaps the most favorable match-up on the slate against a mediocre farm hand in Eickoff.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS