We continue our offseason series with a rundown of the AFC West. The West is shaping up to be the toughest division in the NFL in 2022. A quartet of immensely talented quarterbacks will hope to lead their equally loaded teams into the postseason, and there’s a chance that every single team could make it there. But no team is perfect, so let’s dive in.
Denver Broncos:
Biggest Strengths: Starting Wide Receivers
Not many teams improved as much as the Broncos did in 2022. That’s the outcome when you trade for an elite quarterback like Russell Wilson. The Broncos, finally, get the franchise quarterback they’ve desperately been searching for since Peyton Manning retired, and Wilson might just have the best supporting cast of his entire career. It’s a perfect match on paper.
The starting wide receiving trio of Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and Jerry Jeudy is one of the best in the NFL. All three are big, physical receivers who can win all over the field. Sutton is the prototypical X receiver, Patrick is a monster against man coverage, and Jeudy can win both inside and outside. Jeudy underachieved in his sophomore season with the Broncos, but injuries also limited him to just five starts.
Having a quarterback like Wilson will help the Broncos receivers improve in all aspects of their game, but the same goes for Wilson. This trio of dynamic receivers can match up against any secondary in the NFL. The Broncos’ offense will be one of the best in the league in 2022.
Biggest Weaknesses: Defensive Line
The Broncos roster doesn’t have many weaknesses. The biggest flaw in the locker room in 2021 was the lack of a quarterback. Since then, they’ve acquired Wilson, but there’s still a weakness: the defensive line, especially after losing Shelby Harris in the Wilson trade. Even with Harris, the Broncos’ defensive line didn’t make much of an impact last year.
Per Football Outsiders, the defensive line ranked 24th in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards, meaning running backs usually haven’t had much trouble breaking past the line of scrimmage into the second level. The Broncos only allowed 4.3 yards per rushing attempt in 2021, but that can be attributed to a strong linebacking corps that remained aggressive and smart in their run designations.
The front office added D.J. Jones and Randy Gregory to bolster the line, but Gregory comes with injury concerns and Jones’ impact as an interior defender is limited. They’ll both help the defensive line, but the Broncos could still be pushed around up front.
Kansas City Chiefs:
Biggest Strengths: Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes completed 66 percent of his passes for 4839 yards and 37 touchdowns in what was considered a relative down year in 2021. Truthfully, Mahomes did have a midseason rough patch when defenses started to play him differently – sending fewer blitzes and dropping more players into coverage to deny passing opportunities. It still ended with Mahomes finishing second in EPA per play, behind only Aaron Rodgers, per RBSDM. His down year is a career year for most NFL quarterbacks.
The Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill, Mahomes’ not-so-secret weapon, to the Dolphins this offseason, so it will be interesting to see how he copes without a receiver that can stretch the field laterally and vertically as Hill does. The Chiefs added JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore to the receiver room and there’s probably more depth than in 2021, but there’s no one that can do what Hill does.
How much will that matter when the Chiefs still have Mahomes and Travis Kelce? Mahomes can do things that no other quarterback in the world can do. His arm talent is unparalleled and the offense revolves around his ability to accomplish what few in the league can. He’s the best quarterback in the NFL.
Biggest Weaknesses: Edge rushing depth
The Chiefs’ pool of edge rushers hasn’t dramatically changed from 2021, but that continuity might not be such a great thing. The Chiefs had an adjusted sack rate of just 5.5 percent, 27th in the NFL, and none of their edge rushers had a pass rush win rate higher than 15 percent. The highest was Melvin Ingram, who’s no longer with the team.
Kansas City drafted George Karlaftis in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, and they still have Frank Clark – who clearly has talent, but hasn’t quite lived up to that with the Chiefs – but beyond those two players, one of whom hasn’t even played a snap in the NFL, the Chiefs don’t have many players who can reach the quarterback off the edge. Their best pass-rusher is Chris Jones, but he thrives when working in between the tackles and is more likely to see double-teams.
If the Chiefs can’t get to the quarterback this season, they’ll have a tough time getting their defense off the field, which makes their offensive possessions count even more. Of course, they’re a talented offense with Mahomes, but they can’t do it all by themselves. The edge rushers need to find ways to get to the quarterback.
Las Vegas Raiders:
Biggest Strengths: Edge rushers
If the Chiefs’ edge rushers are just so-so, then the Raiders might have the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL. It starts with Maxx Crosby, who led the NFL with 101 total pressures in 2021, 15 more than the next closest player, Aaron Donald. Crosby has a relentless motor, an endless array of pass-rushing moves, and all the physical tools.
Crosby has racked up 194 pressures in his first three seasons, which led him to a monster four-year, $94 million deal. The Raiders had paired Crosby with Yannick Ngakoue last season, but after trading Ngakoue away to the Colts, signed free agent Chandler Jones to a three-year contract. Together, Jones and Crosby make up a devastating duo. Jones might not be at his peak anymore, but he’s still an elite defender who can rush the passer and stop the run.
Having two players who can both tally double-digit sacks and lofty pressure rates on the same team is a match made in heaven. The Raiders’ defense was among the worst in the NFL per EPA last season, but pressuring the quarterback and causing chaos upfront is a good way to change that in 2022.
Biggest Weaknesses: Offensive line
Oof. Once upon a time, the Raiders had the best offensive line in the NFL. Donald Penn, Kelechi Osemele, Rodney Hudson, and Gabe Jackson tossed around grown men like rag dolls on Sundays and protected Derek Carr as if their lives depended on it. That’s not the case ahead of the 2022 season.
Kolton Miller has turned out to be a smart draft choice for the Raiders, despite the selection initially being panned. He had a pass-blocking grade of 84.4 in 2021, per PFF, seventh in the NFL. Miller has been great over the last two seasons for the Raiders, but his supporting cast has not.
The Raiders starting offensive line allowed a total of 206 pressures in 2021, with rookie Alex Leatherwood and right tackle Brandon Parker combining for well over 100 of those pressures. Leatherwood will likely shift from guard, where he might have been the worst starting guard in the NFL, to tackle this season, with Jermaine Eluemunor taking his place inside.
There just hasn’t been enough movement on the offensive line to feel confident. The offense will likely be a lot better with Davante Adams this season, but the offensive line will still be a problem.
Los Angeles Chargers:
Biggest Strengths: Wholesale defensive changes
No other unit improved as much as the Chargers defense this offseason. The unit ranked as one of the worst in the NFL in 2021, ranking 24th in total EPA and second last in rush EPA. It was their inconsistent performances that held the Chargers out of the postseason. Brandon Staley and Tom Telesco knew as much and intended to make wholesale changes across the board.
Staley wanted to implement his style of defense on the team, but the Chargers lacked the personnel to do so. So, the Chargers invested heavily in free agency. They traded for edge rusher Khalil Mack, one of the best all-around defensive ends in the league, and they added J.C. Jackson, Sebastian Joseph-Day, and Austin Johnson on top of that to give the Chargers a real identity. They wanted to solidify the defensive interior and add a playmaker on the outside.
The result, on paper, is a nasty unit. The Chargers already had elite talents like Joey Bosa and Derwin James on the roster, but they’ve doubled up on that to fully get the benefit of the Brandon Staley way.
Biggest Weaknesses: Right tackle
The one chink in the Chargers’ armor is their right tackle spot. It was one of the more known issues on their roster, other than the defensive line, heading into the offseason and, at the time of writing, the Chargers haven’t done anything to solve that problem. Part of the reason is options. We’re now in mid-June, veering towards training camp, and most free agents that could make an impact are gone.
The Chargers had Bryan Bulaga on the roster in 2021, but injuries meant that he never really settled, playing less than 500 total snaps in two years with the team. That meant that his deputy, Storm Norton, was the Chargers’ starting right tackle in 2021. Norton’s performances were very much not fit for an NFL starting tackle, allowing 60 pressures and nine sacks. He was the weak link on an improved offensive line, and that will most likely be the case in 2022.
Norton is projected to be the Chargers starting right tackle this season unless sixth-round rookie Jamaree Salyer can beat him out for the job. Based on Norton’s performances, that’s definitely doable. But if he can’t beat him for the job, that’s a worry.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport