UFC 274 Predictions & Analysis

UFC 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje – 5.7.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje. Tonight, we’re in for a treat with a stacked lineup of fights live from Arizona! However, the lightweight championship has been vacated after Charles Oliveira missed weight and now only the challenger will be eligible to leave Phoenix with the belt wrapped around his waist. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 110-60-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 114-56-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated 5-6-2022 at 11pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 5:30pm EST

Fernie Garcia -130 vs Journey Newson +110

Anthony: The card begins with a fight at bantamweight between Journey Newson and Fernie Garcia. This is the UFC debut for Garcia who earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series last fall. He is a boxer. We often see him work the body well in fights and I expect him to have a decisive speed advantage here facing Newson. It has been a while since Newson last fought. While he does have a solid wrestling base, Newson has primarily been focused on throwing hands since getting signed to the promotion. He is a live dog here, especially if he decides to put his BJJ black belt to use and hunt for early takedowns. However, I expect Garcia to win a majority of striking exchanges and stay out of danger on the feet. This is a volatile matchup and I do not feel confident backing either guy, especially since both sit on the wrong side of 30. Garcia should do enough to get his hand raised here but I’d much rather bet on this fight seeing the scorecards than taking Garcia straight up. The line on him is very close to the odds we go to a decision. Fernie Garcia by Decision
Nick: This is a low level but closely contested matchup at bantamweight. Fernie Garcia will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive KO win over Joshua Weems on Dana White’s Contender Series. He has strung together five consecutive wins in total, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against a high level of competition. He’s a pressure boxer who does his best work on the feet, but he’s also a competent grappler as a BJJ purple belt. Journey Newson will be stepping into the cage to compete for the first time since September of 2020. He has power in his strikes and decent technical ability, but he’s sometimes too tentative as he waits for fights to come to him. He has a BJJ black belt, but most of his fights take place at striking range. If I was confident Newson would be aggressive here, I’d happily back him as an underdog. However, I just can’t back him knowing his tentative nature. Garcia is going to be the aggressor here and he’s never been KO’d professionally. As long as he’s defensively sound, he should cruise to a decision. Fernie Garcia by Decision

Lupita Godinez -190 vs Ariane Carnelossi +155

Anthony: Next we have a women’s strawweight fight between Lupita Godinez and Ariane Carnelossi. This is a sneaky good matchup between ladies that have found success thus far in the UFC. Carnelossi is a heavy hitter bringing some serious power to the weight class. She really likes to brawl and get into scrappy back-and-forth exchanges with her opponents, but a glaring hole in her skillset is on the defensive side of things. Carnelossi eats a lot of clean strikes and while Godinez is not a huge knockdown threat she will certainly be the crisper of these two on the feet. Godinez also has the ability to initiate grappling in a spot like this. Both women are well versed on the mat but Godinez has been extremely efficient thus far when able to secure top position. I think she can threaten with submissions in this spot and certainly sway the judge’s if this fight were to go to decision. Carnelossi is a very live dog but I find myself siding with Godinez here who likely improved even further in the six months spent out of action. She has secured the more impressive wins between these two. Lupita Godinez by Decision
Nick: Godinez is a well-rounded fighter, but most of her recent success has come using her grappling. Since entering the UFC, Godinez has averaged more than four takedowns per fifteen minutes. Carnelossi is very well built for the weight class. She’s extremely muscular with decent power and explosiveness in her punches. Her striking is far from refined and most of her success has come via overwhelming smaller and weaker opponents. On the feet, I expect Godinez to land more consistently. Carnelossi will have a power advantage, but Godinez works well behind her jab and does a good job keeping her opponents on their back foot. If this fight only takes place on the feet Carnelossi could potentially pull away by causing more damage, but I expect Godinez to mix in her grappling here. Carnelossi has a terrible 25 percent takedown defense in the UFC. She has decent BJJ, but I’m not confident in her ability to find submissions against Godinez who has a good grasp of positional grappling. This fight is a bit closer than the line suggests, but Godinez is the rightful favorite here. I see her as the more well-rounded fighter with more paths to victory. Lupita Godinez by Decision

Kleydson Rodrigues -350 vs Carlos Vergara +265

Anthony: Here is a matchup at flyweight between Kleydson Rodrigues and Carlos Vergara. This is the debut fight for Rodrigues after securing a lopsided win on Dana White’s Contender Series. Vergara is also an alumnus of the show but he has already gotten his feet wet inside the octagon, losing a fight to Ode Osbourne at UFC 268. He likely needs to rely on his grappling in this spot against a high-level striker like Rodrigues. Not only can he put together crisp combinations with his hands, but Rodrigues throws excellent kicks and keeps his opponents guessing by switching stances quite often. In this larger 30-foot cage, Rodrigues should have no problem controlling distance and landing the cleaner strikes at range. He is a big flyweight and I really do not see Vergara keeping up with him on the feet. We should see a clear difference in power and precision here, leading me to believe this price tag is warranted. Kleydson Rodrigues by Decision
Nick: Vergara is an interesting prospect as a former Flyweight Champion with FFC. He lost via decision to Ode Osbourne in his UFC debut, but he gave a decent account of himself as a heavy underdog. Vergara is a high-volume striker that does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents. He has solid defensive grappling ability, but his durability and deep gas tank are what stood out about him in his debut. Kleydson Rodrigues will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win over Santo Curatolo. He’s very big for the division and widely considered a prospect with a very high ceiling at 125. Rodrigues works well behind his jab, he has powerful leg kicks, but he is most known for his flashy high kicks and spinning attacks. He is extremely aggressive and he’s more than willing to throw flying knees and wheel kicks in open space. He’ll need to be careful defensively, but his movement poses a level of difficulty that Vergara has never seen before. In spite of his flashy style, Rodrigues has excellent footwork and he does an excellent job staying out of his opponents range. I expect this fight to primarily take place on the feet, where Rodrigues’ speed and movement should keep him a step ahead. The line has gotten too wide here given Rodrigues is still somewhat unproven but watching film it’s very clear he’s the more gifted fighter in this matchup. Kleydson Rodrigues by Decision

Tracy Cortez -140 vs Melissa Gatto +115

Anthony: This is a very interesting fight at flyweight between Tracy Cortez and Melissa Gatto. Both girls have stellar records with the only career loss shared between them coming in Cortez’ professional debut. It is a real clash of styles as Cortez is a one-dimensional wrestler facing an opponent in Gatto that should have the edge in terms of striking and BJJ. While Cortez has gotten better on the feet over the years, it is still a pretty rudimentary boxing style she implements. Her bread is buttered using the takedown to secure top position and grind on her opponents for the duration of each fight. Gatto’s striking is improving at a much faster rate and she pairs it well with a very dangerous submission game. I have no doubt that Cortez can secure takedowns and win rounds in this fight, but I am hesitant to bet on her if she is going to be tangled up in Gatto’s active guard. Judges seem to always give the nod to Cortez and that should be no different today in Arizona, but one mistake could cost her against such a lethal jiu jitsu practitioner. I may bet her if these odds continue to close but it is not a very confident pick at all. Tracy Cortez by Decision
Nick: Cortez comes into this fight on a nine fight win streak. She has notable UFC victories over Stephanie Egger, Justine Kish and Vanessa Melo. She’s well-rounded, but her greatest strength is certainly her grappling ability. She has a solid wrestling base, impressive ground-and-pound and she averages three successful takedowns per fifteen minutes. Gatto comes into this matchup undefeated. She is primarily a striker who lands more than four significant strikes per minute. She’s not going to match Cortez in terms of her wrestling, but she has advanced BJJ ability and she can be very dangerous off her back. This is one of the tougher fights on the card to call, but I’m siding with Cortez here. I expect she’ll be able to score several takedowns, control position and stay out of danger while Gatto tries to counter with submissions. I wouldn’t place a bet here, but I’m siding with the favorite. Tracy Cortez by Decision

Andre Fialho -450 vs Cameron VanCamp +330

Anthony: Here we have a bout at welterweight between Andre Fialho and Cameron VanCamp. This fight was booked earlier in the week at the request of Fialho, who earned a win over Miguel Baeza less than one month ago. He is looking to remain active after that massive victory by first round knockout. VanCamp makes his promotional debut here after being signed to face Nikolas Motta last fall. He has found success taking down lower-level opponents and controlling fights on the mat, but Fialho is a brutal matchup for him stylistically. I do not think he finds success getting this fight to the ground and while standing the discrepancy in power will be significant. Fialho has very heavy hands and refined boxing skills. VanCamp has yet to face an opponent of this caliber and I see poor defense costing him here. He is extremely hittable and just a few clean shots from Fialho will be sufficient in ending this fight early. Fialho has four wins by round one knockout since the start of 2021. Andre Fialho by Round One KO
Nick: Andre Fialho is coming off an impressive KO win over a highly regarded prospect in Miguel Baeza. He is fairly well-rounded, but he’s most content to stand and trade as he has true one-shot KO power. Cameron VanCamp will be making his UFC debut here. We haven’t seen him in action since July of 2021, but he’s on a four-fight win streak on the regional scene. He doesn’t put out much volume on the feet, but he has shown decent power albeit against a low level of competition. Most of VanCamp’s success has come through his grappling ability. He’s dangerous if he can get his opponent to the mat, but he really hasn’t been tested against anyone even remotely on Fialho’s level. Fialho is likely to be the aggressor early here, but he’ll need to be careful in managing his gas tank. We’ve seen Fialho fade late in fights on more than one occasion. I think as long as he isn’t over aggressive and he stuffs any early VanCamp takedown attempts, he should dominate in this spot. I expect we see Fialho to find his timing here over the first minute or so, but from there he should be able to take out VanCamp with relative ease. Andre Fialho by Round One KO

Blagoy Ivanov -150 vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima +125

Anthony: The early prelims close with a matchup at heavyweight between Blagoy Ivanov and Marcos Rogerio de Lima. This whole card is littered with some fighters on the decline but this matchup has to be the most volatile of them all. Blagoy Ivanov is two years removed from competition, coming off a split decision loss to Augusto Sakai. He is an extremely durable fighter but really offers nothing to get excited about aside from that. Ivanov is accustomed to eating big shots in an attempt to smother opponents or win fights on volume alone. I have never been all that high on him and certainly do not want to take him as a favorite against anyone at this stage of his career. Rogerio de Lima is not really much better but he is coming off consecutive wins since moving up to heavyweight. He is good at unloading on opponents in the early going and defending initial takedowns, but Pezao is also quick to fade if ever pinned onto the mat. I do not plan on investing any money in this fight but I think de Lima is certainly the more skilled fighter who packs the heavier punch. Ivanov has never been knocked out in his career but it is certainly the only path to victory I see for the underdog in a spot like this. Marcos Rogerio de Lima by Round One KO
Nick: Blagoy Ivanov is best known for his outstanding durability. He has never been KO’d professionally, carrying a solid 18-4 professional record into this matchup. He’s a decent striker offensively, but he sometimes struggles to put out consistent volume. Ivanov is a capable grappler as a former combat sambo world champion. He has excellent takedown defense and creative entries offensively. Marcos Rogerio de Lima throws powerful strikes with 14 of his 19 professional wins coming via KO. He always seems to come out strong, but as his fights wear on it’s very rare that his cardio holds up for the better part of fifteen minutes. He’s a decent grappler as well in terms of his BJJ,, but his gas tank usually prevents him from leaning on that part of his game consistently. I expect Ivanov to outclass de Lima everywhere here. His outstanding durability should block his opponent’s only real path to victory. Blagoy Ivanov by Round Two KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Brandon Royval -260 vs Matt Schnell +200

Anthony: The preliminary card opens with a great flyweight scrap between Brandon Royval and Matt Schnell. Royval is a very fun, southpaw striker who has put on excellent performances since joining the UFC. He has an aggressive style putting out a lot of volume and looking to overwhelm opponents from the very start of each fight. He has already fought some brutal competition and honestly Schnell feels like his softest matchup since signing with the promotion. Certainly a tough fighter like Schnell is no walk in the park but he is a bit one dimensional, using a boxing heavy attack to control distance and secure rounds. For as good as he can be offensively Schnell also absorbs more than four significant strikes per minute which is a recipe for disaster against an opponent like this. While I do feel these odds have gotten a bit too wide I certainly think Royval is the rightful favorite given his style and ability to finish fights. He has very solid jiu jitsu and I could see him latching onto numerous submission attempts here if things do not go his way on the feet. Brandon Royval by Round Two Submission
Nick: Royval is one of the more aggressive fighters there is on the roster. He starts fights like he’s shot out of a cannon. He is well-rounded with a solid chin but his crafty BJJ and dangerous offensive grappling ability is certainly his greatest strength. He has notable wins over Kai Kara-France, Tim Elliot, and Rogerio Bontorin. He thrives in chaos and he’s done a good job forcing opponents to fight at his ridiculous pace. Schnell is sometimes considered a slow starter, but he has underrated power on the feet and a proven gas tank/cardio. His striking is decent, but his offensive grappling is his greatest strength as a BJJ black belt with nine of his fifteen professional wins coming by way of submission. I expect this fight to mostly take place on the mat where Royval will win the scrambles. Schnell is technically advanced, but he sometimes seems to overthink things. Against a hyper-aggressive fighter like Royval, his reaction time will be a major factor. The line has gotten a bit out of hand, but Royval is the pick here. As long as he respects Schnell’s countering ability, I expect he’ll outclass him everywhere. Brandon Royval by Round One Submission

Norma Dumont -235 vs Macy Chiasson +185

Anthony: Here we have a rare fight at women’s featherweight between Norma Dumont and Macy Chiasson. Dumont missed weight by a half of a pound yesterday and was fined 30 percent of her pay as a result. She is a fighter built for the 145-pound division given the size advantage she holds over most peers. Dumont has really improved her striking as of late, refining her footwork and distance control in particular. Against an opponent like Chiasson I think she certainly could find success point fighting, but the more clear path to victory will be implementing takedowns and using her size to dominate there. Chiasson is not a very proficient grappler and while I could see her landing good strikes against Dumont in the clinch, that is the area she will be most susceptible to getting dragged down to the floor. I do not expect an exciting fight at all but Dumont feels like a safe bet to extend her winning streak to four. Norma Dumont by Decision
Nick: Chiasson is most effective striking in the clinch. She carries a powerful muay-thai base from which she mixes in dangerous elbows. She uses her reach well, but she is most effective when she closes distance and pulls her opponents into her strikes. Dumont has decent striking ability, but most of her recent success has come via her positional grappling. She can score takedowns against the cage or in open space, and she does a good job staying heavy when she’s on top of her opponent. Dumont has excellent low kicks which she should be able to use to keep Chiasson from pressing forward here. Chiasson is going to have an advantage offensively when it comes to damage, but I certainly feel Dumont has enough defensive prowess to hang on the feet. Dumont is carrying an impressive 67% striking defense while Chiasson’s sits at a mediocre 45 percent. I expect Dumont will be efficient enough on the feet here to score timely takedowns and control position. The line is certainly too wide, but I’m siding with Dumont. Norma Dumont by Decision

Danny Roberts -115 vs Francisco Trinaldo -105

Anthony: Next is a fight at welterweight between Francisco Trinaldo and Danny Roberts. This is a peculiar matchup and it has been a bit hard for me to get a read on Trinaldo as of late. He has been a staple of the UFC roster for a very long time and even at the age of 43, he enters tonight’s bout on a 4-1 winning streak. It has been frustrating to bet on Trinaldo though, as he now endures long periods of inactivity in a majority of his fights. He largely is hunting for one big overhand left and mixing in the occasional takedown to secure some control time and favor with the judges. Roberts is much bigger than him as the true 170 pounder. I see him using that size to great effect here by keeping Trinaldo at range and point fighting in this larger octagon. It would not surprise me to see Massaranduba land a big shot to change the trajectory of this bout but I really think the advantage for Roberts is clear while these two are standing. He has the far better hand speed and output, making him an easy bet at odds that are so close to par. Danny Roberts by Decision
Nick: At 43-years old, Trinaldo is one of the more seasoned veterans still on the UFC roster. Almost all of his fights are close, regardless of who he’s facing. He found most of his success utilizing a size and strength advantage at lightweight, but he’s now fighting at 170 pounds. Roberts is a technically gifted striker with solid footwork, but his chin is extremely suspect as three of his five professional losses have come via KO. He has underrated offensive grappling ability with decent BJJ, but his takedown entries are mediocre at best. Roberts will need to be careful here, as Trinaldo has power and he himself carries questionable durability. However, I see Roberts speed, pressure, and overall athleticism shining through here over the course of three rounds. Trinaldo’s age is starting to show and his general lack of volume will make it tough for him to win a decision here. It wouldn’t shock me to see Trinaldo score a timely knockout, but Roberts has far more paths to victory. Danny Roberts by Round Three KO

Khaos Williams -120 vs Randy Brown +100

Anthony: Closing out the prelims is a great welterweight scrap between Randy Brown and Khaos Williams. I would describe both men as well polished fighters that certainly belong on the fringe of this division’s top fifteen. Williams has been on a tear as of late, winning in seven of his last eight fights. That streak also includes four finishes in the very first round and three within the very first minute. I do not think there is any welterweight in the world with single punch power like Williams. He has accurate boxing and leg kicks that keep opponents guessing, but one well timed punch is all it takes for him to walk out of the octagon victorious. Without a doubt Brown is the more technically sound fighter everywhere, but even if he is a step ahead of Williams there is always going to be a serious knockout threat he must evade. Brown is also a fighter whose legs are there to be hit and I believe Williams will look to target them in the early going here. The wins for Brown have been a bit lackluster and I am not sure how he will approach a step up in competition such as this. There is value in Williams here as I honestly view this a rather even fight with his death touch giving him one more out than Brown possesses. Khaos Williams by Round Two KO
Nick: Williams is growing a reputation as a knockout artist, but he has a decent wrestling base which is evident by his success on the regional scene. He’s coming off an impressive win over Miguel Baeza and some consider him a future top fifteen fighter at 170. Brown is extremely well-rounded with KO power and underrated BJJ ability. He’s very light on his feet with excellent head movement and solid overall striking defense. He works well behind his jab, and he uses his length more effectively than most other fighters with his frame. Brown is going to have a technical advantage here when this fight is standing, but Williams’ power is certainly an equalizer. If Brown is willing to shoot for takedowns here I could see him scoring a submission, but it seems more likely this fight stays on the feet. This is a low confidence play in a fight I could see going either way, but I’ll side with the value and technical advantages of Brown here. Randy Brown by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Donald Cerrone -190 vs Joe Lauzon +155

Anthony: The main card opens with a bout at lightweight between Donald Cerrone and Joe Lauzon. This is going to be a fun scrap between two legends of the sport. Not only have Cowboy and Joe Lauzon been staples of the roster for a long time, but these are two fighters known for putting on absolutely incredible performances. I am happy to see these two older guys paired with one another rather than fighting opponents ranked much higher. Lauzon got a win in his most recent bout, but that came two and a half years ago. Operating a gym has kept him in phenomenal shape but it is tough to expect a stellar performance after so much time away. Cowboy Cerrone on the other hand has remained more active but enters tonight on an 0-5-1 skid. Perhaps the move back down to 155 pounds breathes new life into Cerrone but to be honest he has looked a shell of himself in recent fights. A lifetime of damage has caused him to crack rather quickly under pressure and fade in the very first round of fights. I am expecting a brawl out of these two and while neither is as durable or quick as they once were, they still can land cracking shots. Lauzon should have the slight edge in terms of jiu jitsu and I think he ultimately wins this fight by grinding out Cerrone and putting on a rather frantic pace. This is the true definition of a coin flip fight and I will take the underdog side here for that reason alone. It is tough to justify backing Cerrone as such a large favorite having not seen him get his hand raised since beating Al Iaquinta in 2019. Joe Lauzon by Round Two KO
Nick: We have what should be a fun matchup here between two lightweights that are far past their respective primes. Cerrone is extremely well-rounded with excellent kickboxing and BJJ. The issue though, is that it seems he has mostly abandoned his skills in favor of putting on a show in his recent fights. My hope here is that coming off five losses and Draw, he’s going to do what it takes to get back in the win column. If he loses this fight, it seems extremely likely that this is his last fight with the UFC. Joe Lauzon hasn’t fought since 2019. He’s an excellent grappler with dangerous BJJ, and he usually comes out aggressively. He’s been in the UFC for decades with an impressive overall resume, but it’s tough to know what we can expect from him here as he’s been out of competition for three years. This is another low confidence play as there are countless question marks on both fighters. That being said, I see Cerrone as being the more well-rounded of the two with the better overall technical ability. He’s competent enough on the mat to mostly keep this fight standing, where he should outclass Lauzon by a decent margin. Lauzon will be live for the early knockout here, but after that this feels like Cerrone’s fight to lose. Donald Cerrone by Round Three KO

Ovince Saint Preux -260 vs Shogun Rua +200

Anthony: Next is a bout at light heavyweight between Ovince Saint Preux and Mauricio Shogun Rua. This fight is a rematch of a bout that took place in 2014, a main event that Saint Preux won in the very first minute. He got the job done by dropping Shogun with a left hook which has been the best strike in Saint Preux’s arsenal throughout his career. Shogun is a legend of the sport who was most dangerous in Pride many years ago. Although he reigned as champion of this division in 2010, he is far removed from his prime and has become a shell of his former self. His past two performances were pitiful and I am not expecting anything better after 18 months away from action. Saint Preux has an edge in terms of durability and explosiveness even though he himself is no spring chicken. I see him getting the better of Shogun on the feet or simply taking him down early to find a finish with his grappling. Shogun is a striker and he should be handled quite easily on the mat if a much bigger Saint Preux is able to secure top position. I think OSP wins this rematch by either left hook or Von Flue choke. Ovince Saint Preux by Round One KO
Nick: OSP has been inconsistent, but he still has a lot of power in his strikes. His signature Von Flue choke also has to be a concern for any opponents. Shogun Rua is a legend of the sport. His Pride run from 2004-2005 is amongst the best years for any fighter in the history of MMA. He’s a former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, with notable wins over legends like Chuck Liddell, Kevin Randleman and Alistair Overeem. As impressive as his resume is, he’s a shell of who he was in his prime. Now 40-years old and coming off a loss where he tapped due to strikes, this is likely his last fight with the promotion. I see OSP weathering the early storm from Rua and likely taking this fight to the mat. From there, he should find the opening he needs for a finish – likely via ground-and-pound. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see OSP win by standing TKO. Shogun still has some power, but not much else. It doesn’t feel good fading a legend here, but he really should have retired years ago. Ovince Saint Preux by Round Two KO

Michael Chandler -380 vs Tony Ferguson +290

Anthony: The featured bout is a fight at lightweight between Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson. Despite the skid El Cucuy has been in the past two years, it is shocking to see him a near +300 underdog against anyone in the division top ten. He was outmatched by the likes of Gaethje, Oliveira and Beneil Dariush but I think folks are writing off Ferguson a bit too soon, neglecting the utter dominance we saw from him prior to that. He may have lost a step but Ferguson is still a very high level striker who brings a technical, unorthodox puzzle into the cage that Chandler will struggle to solve. It would be easy to justify these odds in a wrestling match but Chandler’s ego will be put to the test in a fight of this magnitude. Since arriving at the promotion from Bellator he has strictly been a crowd pleaser, putting on entertaining fights and chasing the finish with little regard for his own defense. With three losses by knockout on his record, I would argue his durability is of far greater concern than that of Ferguson. I think Chandler has a clear path to victory by spamming takedowns here today, but this fight is much closer to 50/50 odds when these two are on the feet. Ferguson also has extremely high level jiu jitsu that could trap Chandler if he were to fight smart and stay put in Tony’s guard. I really do think he has numerous paths to victory and a fourth straight loss will not be the method by which El Cucuy’s career comes to an end. He has just two losses by finishing in 31 fights as a pro and never before has Ferguson been knocked out by an opponent. He also has the edge over Chandler in terms of size and cardio. Tony Ferguson by Round Three Sub
Nick: Before he began his career in MMA, Chandler was an accomplished NCAA Division I Wrestler. He’s going to be one of the better wrestlers in the lightweight division now that Khabib Nurmagomedov has retired. That being said, he’s likely to stand and trade here in a fight fans have pegged as a matchup likely to guarantee violence. Tony Ferguson used to be one of the more dangerous pound-for-pound fighters on the entire roster. He became known for his devastating striking ability, vicious elbows, and excellent BJJ. He is now on a three-fight losing streak for the first time in his career and he could be on his way out of the UFC with another loss. In his prime I’d back Tony here with confidence. However, he seems far gone from who he was when he was successful. I see Chandler’s more technical striking shining through here. He’ll be very live for an early KO and he can mix in his wrestling to steal rounds or play defense. The line has gotten out of hand, but Chandler is the rightful favorite. I have trouble finding paths to victory for Tony here. Michael Chandler by Decision

Rose Namajunas -220 vs Carla Esparza +175

Anthony: The co-main event will decide the women’s strawweight championship as Carla Esparza challenges for the belt against Thug Rose Namajunas. This is a rematch of a bout that took place in 2014. Esparza defeated Namajunas by a third-round choke to win The Ultimate Fighter and be crowned the very first UFC strawweight champion. It has been a long road back to title contention for her while Namajunas has conversely stayed at the top of the food chain and fought for the strap many times. This is familiar territory for Thug Rose, being a flawless 4-0 in rematches. The adjustments she is making between fights with Trevor Wittman to get her hand raised have really cemented her as one of the best to ever do it. Namajunas is the better technical striker than Esparza. She has excellent footwork and really uses her vision well to win exchanges on the feet. Esparza is a wrestler who will be looking to shoot takedowns and rack up control time en route to a win. She really poses little to no threat in terms of submission ability or power on the feet. While I could certainly see Esparza blanketing Namajunas for a few rounds this evening, I ultimately doubt it will be enough to dethrone her. Rose has excellent Fight IQ and she will likely be able to make better in-fight adjustments. The odds are a bit too rich for my blood but I expect Namajunas to retain the belt and even the score with Esparza. And still. Rose Namajunas by Decision
Nick: Namajunas will be defending the title here against the same woman she lost to in The Ultimate Fighter finale back in 2014. In many ways, this is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Rose is one of the best strikers in this division and Esparza is easily one of the better wrestlers. I see Rose’s length and speed mostly keeping Esparza at bay. She does a good job circling away from her opponents, and all of the strikes she throws are meaningful. She’s extremely quick when throwing combinations, carries surprising power for her frame and does an excellent job baiting her opponents into strikes. It wouldn’t surprise me if Esparza manages to blanket Rose and steal a decision, but that’s her only path to victory. Rose is the more dynamic fighter and she’s been tested against a much higher level of competition. The line does feel a bit wide, but Namajunas is the rightful favorite. And Still. Rose Namajunas by Round Three KO

Charles Oliveira -145 vs Justin Gaethje +120

Anthony: The main event is a lightweight bout between Justin Gaethje and the division’s champion Charles Oliveira. Yesterday, Oliveira was a half-pound over the championship limit on the scales. He weighed in once again an hour later and was unable to make the cut. As a result of this, the title will be vacated by Oliveira prior to the fight this evening. Gaethje is still eligible to become undisputed champion with a victory here, but Charles will need to win another fight in order to get back his strap. It is an extremely unfortunate circumstance but I do not think it impacts the outcome of this matchup very much at all. Oliveira is still on a ten-fight winning streak and certainly one of the most potent finishers in the entire UFC. He strikes using an aggressive muay thai approach, pressuring opponents and being savvy when picking his shots. Gaethje is conversely a technical brawler looking to get into a scrap. He has the advantage over Oliveira in terms of durability and punching power. Gaethje also blasts punishing leg kicks that pay dividends as he gets into the latter rounds of his fights. In terms of skill the edge goes to Gaethje on the feet, but Oliveira is the far more complete fighter which makes him the bigger threat. With 20 professional wins by submission, Oliveira really is the best jiu jistu practitioner in all of MMA. He has excellent takedowns in the clinch and from the body lock that dump opponents to the mat or force them to leave openings for him to grab a limb. The discrepancy between Oliveira and Gaethje’s grappling is far wider than the separation between the two on the feet. Despite all the drama surrounding this fight I see Oliveira extending his win streak and once again proving he is the best lightweight fighter on earth. The odds have closed quite a bit since the mishap on the scales and I think this is a great number to bet on the champion once again. Charles Oliveira by Round Two Submission

Nick: Justin Gaethje is a brawler. His kill-or-be-killed style has landed him Fight of the Night or Performance of the Night bonuses in eight of his nine bouts in the UFC. He’s continued to improve in terms of his technical ability, but there’s no denying his will to engage in a dangerous firefight. He has decent defensive grappling ability, but he’s going to want to keep this fight standing against a very dangerous grappler in Oliveira. Oliveira is a third-degree black belt in BJJ and pound-for-pound one of the best grapplers in the world. His striking has dramatically improved over the course of his career and he’s recently shown serious improvement in his ability to throw combinations. Gaethje throws extremely powerful leg kicks which I fully expect to be a large part of his game plan here. He’s going to try to keep Olivera moving backwards so it’s more difficult for him to be taken down. If this fight stays standing, I expect Gaethje’s durability and power to be too much for Oliveira. However, I expect Oliveira to relentlessly pursue takedowns here. I am concerned with the weight miss by Oliveira, but he did look healthy at the ceremonial weigh-ins only hours after his miss. I have little to no confidence in this pick, this is truly a coin flip fight. However, I do think Oliveira can protect himself for long enough to engage in a grappling exchange. Gaethje is one of the more dangerous underdogs on this card, but I’m not confident in his ability to keep Oliveira from finding a submission if he grounds him. Charles’ grappling advantage feels more significant than Gaethje’s on the feet. Nothing would surprise me here. If I’m betting at all, I’d play the under 2.5 round prop. Charles Oliveira by Round Two Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: Andrius Petrucina. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.