This upcoming series is going to capitalise on the NFL’s frantic pace grinding to a slow and well-needed lull. If there was ever a time to put your phone down and step outside without the threat of breaking news lurking, it would be now. But instead, we’re going to take an in-depth look at each division in the NFL and pinpoint each team’s biggest strength and biggest weakness, starting with the AFC East.
Up until the departure of Tom Brady, the AFC East had been a one horse race for the last 20 years with the Patriots winning 17 division titles between 2000 and 2021. The Bills have won the division for the past two years, just as their superstar quarterback is entering his prime, but the division will be highly competitive in 2022. The Patriots want their crown back while the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins have both retooled their offenses in the hopes of making the postseason.
Buffalo Bills
Biggest Strength: Quarterback
This could have easily been their defense or wide receiver room. The Bills have one of the most stacked rosters in the NFL, and as a result, are certain Super Bowl contenders once again in 2022. But it’s hard not to overlook Allen as the X-Factor for the Bills. His story is unheralded – his jump in play from 2019 to 2020 is one of the biggest leaps we’ve ever seen a player take in a single season, going from a heavily criticized and flawed second-year quarterback to an absolute superstar in his third year.
While the raw numbers don’t denote much of an improvement in his fourth year – Allen threw fewer touchdowns, more interceptions, and fewer yards per game while watching his completion percentage dip from 69 percent to 63 percent from his third to fourth year – Allen still performed at an MVP level. Per PFF, he had the second-most big-time throws in the NFL and had a career-high in rushing yards.
Allen’s threat as a runner is among the best in the NFL. He has the speed to run past defenders, and the power and build to run through them and, as we’ve seen since the Bills drafted Allen in 2018, they’re not afraid to use him as a runner. Despite his already incredible talents, it feels like Allen still has room to grow, and that’s a scary thought for the rest of the NFL.
Biggest Weakness: Run-Blocking and General Offensive Line.
As we’ve discussed, the Bills don’t have too many weaknesses. If there was one “soft spot”, though, it would be the offensive line, or more so, their ability to consistently block in the run game. The Bills running game was a hot mess for large stretches of the season, and the offensive line was a big reason why.
The line finished 23rd in ESPN’S run-block win rate and had the sixth-worst run-blocking grade, per PFF. The front office hasn’t done much to upgrade the unit. They said goodbye to right tackle Daryl Williams, with Spencer Brown, the Bills’ 2021 third-round pick stepping into his place.
They added guard Rodger Saffold after he was cut by the Tennessee Titans in the offseason, and the 33-year-old is a solid run blocker but highly ineffective as a pass-blocker. If you’re one or the other, it’s probably best to be a good pass-blocker, and the Bills could suffer as a result.
Overall, the offensive line has question marks. Dion Dawkins has been serviceable at left tackle and Mitch Morse is one of the better-undersized centers in the NFL, but between Brown, Saffold, and Ryan Bates, who only received significant playing time in the final weeks of the season, there’s a lot of uncertainty.
Miami Dolphins:
Biggest Strength: Secondary
Unfortunately, the Brian Flores era in Miami ended in the sourest way possible. We won’t get into the details of why, but we also can’t gloss over all of the good work Flores did with the Dolphins – especially on the defensive front. Miami’s defense had the fifth-best EPA per play in the NFL over the last two seasons, per RBSDM, thanks in large part to their excellent secondary.
Xavier Howard and Byron Jones have formed one of the best cornerback duos in the NFL since the latter arrived in 2020 in a defensive system that puts a lot of weight on their ability to defend in isolated man coverage. Just when it looked like the Dolphins’ secondary had peaked, the front office drafted Jevon Holland in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Holland instantly made his name as a safety that could do just about everything required. He e xcelled all over the field. He could match up in man coverage, tackle in space, and even pressure the quarterback. Holland has just turned 22, but he’s already cemented himself as one of the best safeties in the NFL.
It’s uncertain how the Dolphins’ defense will operate with Josh Boyer as the defensive coordinator. The Dolphins have continuity in the role, with Boyer in the position since 2020, but the reins of the defense were firmly in the hands of Flores. What is certain is that the Dolphins will continue to build the defense around their excellent secondary.
Biggest Weakness: Quarterback
This is likely to rustle a few feathers but it’s due in large part to the excellent state of the Dolphins roster. The defense, as discussed, could be one of the best in the NFL in 2022. The offensive line is much improved with the signings of Terron Armstead and Connor Williams and after trading for Tyreek Hill and signing Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Cedrick Wilson to pair with Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins have one of the most explosive skill position groupings in the NFL.
However, so much of the team’s success will depend on how Tua Tagovailoa develops in his third year. His first two years in the NFL have been a relative disappointment. Tagovailoa has dealt with a myriad of niggling injuries and inconsistent play, ranking 23rd out of 32 quarterbacks in EPA per play from 2020 and 2021 and throwing just 27 touchdown passes in 23 games. Tagovailoa is accurate on his first read, but in an RPO offense that doesn’t stretch his decision-making, there’s not much scope to show vast improvement at an NFL level.
The Dolphins have continuously been linked to a number of different quarterbacks since Tagovailoa stepped in the building and if he doesn’t show signs of tangible improvement under new head coach Mike McDaniel, his third year could be his last as a starter in Miami.
New England Patriots:
Biggest Strength: Offensive Line
The roster construction post-Tom Brady hasn’t been the smoothest, but the Patriots have built one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. First-round pick Mac Jones was terrific in his rookie season, and he has a great pocket presence. But he’s not particularly fleet of foot so the added protection helps. Per PFF, Jones was pressured on just 27.9 percent of his dropbacks in 2021, with only five quarterbacks being pressured less. Jones gets the ball out fast, per the scheme, but it’s hard to overlook the strength upfront – and that’s even after the Patriots traded away Shaq Mason to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The front office replaced Mason by drafting Cole Strange in the first round of the 2022 draft, and swiss army knife lineman, Michael Onwenu, will get a full-time starting gig in place of Ted Karras, who joined the Bengals in the offseason. Re-signing Trent Brown to a two-year $13 million deal will be a coup too if the tackle can stay healthy.
And it’s not just as pass-blockers that the Patriots’ offensive line excels. Onwenu, David Andrews, and Isaiah Wynn all had run-blocking grades of over 75.0, per PFF, and Brown has been a serviceable option in the run game over the course of his career. While Strange’s selection in the first round might have its critics, there’s no denying that he is one of the most athletic guards to be drafted to the NFL in some time. His RAS score of 9.95 is elite.
Biggest Weakness: Pass-rushing
Outside of Matthew Judon, it’s hard to see where the sacks will come from for the Patriots in 2022. Judon had a career year in 2021, his first year with the Patriots, tallying 12.5 sacks and 64 total pressures in 17 games. Overall, though, the Patriots’ pass rush left much to be desired. The defense finished with a below-average 36 sacks, with most of the production coming from Judon.
Interior defender Christian Barmore impressed in his rookie season with 51 total pressures, the ninth-most from any interior rusher but only registered two sacks. But without Barmore and Judon, the Patriots struggled to generate pressure. Linebacker Kyle Van Noy was released and joined the Chargers, and so far, the Patriots haven’t made any more moves to add a pass-rusher to the mix.
Of course, they’re the Patriots and don’t often rely on star talent, but a quick look at the depth chart reveals a real lack of depth on the edge and you could probably argue that the entire defense has some question marks regarding its talent.
New York Jets:
Biggest Strength: Pass catchers
Not many teams did more for their quarterback in the offseason than the Jets did for Zach Wilson. The former 2nd overall pick struggled in his rookie season but showed real signs of progression upon returning from injury in Week 12, even if his completion percentage was below average.
Wilson will look to improve in his second season and while there’s still a steep learning curve to overcome, the fact that the Jets have likely made life a little easier for their franchise quarterback is a good sign. Wilson has all the arm talent in the world, but a litany of injuries and sub-par performances from his pass-catchers held him down. This year, the Jets have quietly assembled a strong group of receiving options for Wilson.
The starting trio of Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and 10th overall pick Garrett Wilson all have the potential to play inside or outside, which poses potential matchup threats across the board for defenses. Moore caught 43 passes for 538 yards and 5 touchdowns in 11 games in his rookie season, and while Davis struggled in the first year of his big-money contract, the extra help at the receiver position will likely help him improve.
Not only did the Jets make moves at the wide receiver position, but they completely overhauled the tight end room, adding C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin as reliable pass-catching options for Wilson. The Jets are putting Wilson in a position to succeed by giving him a great assortment of weapons.
Biggest Weakness: Linebackers
The Jets are one of the biggest winners of the offseason and maybe improved just as much on defense as they did on offense, but there are still clear weaknesses on the roster and it’s at the linebacker position.
C.J. Mosley was one of the best linebackers in the league with the Baltimore Ravens. He was good against the run, could defend in coverage, and had the ability to blitz the quarterback. When he signed a five-year, $85 million contract with the Jets it raised a lot of eyebrows, but his talent was undeniable.
Two years in, and things have been tough for Mosley. He played just 114 snaps for the Jets in 2020 – his first season with the team – before suffering a groin injury that kept him out for the entire season. 2021 was a hit and miss campaign. Mosley had his moments and continued to wear the green dot for the Jets, but struggled with on-field consistency.
It wasn’t just an issue with Mosley. Most of the Jets linebackers struggled to really assert themselves on a fledgling defense. Quincy Williams is a potential breakout candidate, but the likes of Hamsah Nasirildeen – who’ll be the Jets weakside linebacker – didn’t make much of an impact in his rookie season.
The Jets defense couldn’t consistently get stops at the second level in 2021, and though, on paper, the entire unit is much improved, the linebacker core has to get better.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @ThomasValenfine
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.