The Montreal Canadiens finished with the worst record in the league in 2021-22, and were subsequently rewarded with the 1st overall draft pick at the Draft Lottery Tuesday.
The Habs came into the lottery with the best odds of securing the number 1 pick after a 22-49-11 season. Montreal, who is also hosting the NHL Entry Draft this year, will have their pick of the litter when it comes to prospects at this year’s event. However it was the New Jersey Devils who could be viewed as the big “winners” of the night, as they moved up to 2nd overall thanks to how the ping pong balls fell.
New Jersey, who came in with 5th best chance of winning the lottery, managed to leapfrog Arizona, Seattle and Philadelphia for the number 2 selection in this year’s draft class.
Here’s how the full NHL Draft lottery played out, along with possible selections for each of the teams:
1.Montreal Canadiens – 18.5% chance of winning lottery, 22-49-11 (55pts)
Needs: A little bit of everything
Possible Selections: Shane Wright – C (Kingston, OHL), Juraj Slafkovsky – LW (TPS, Finland)
Wright may not have the same buzz around him as he did a season ago, but he’s got a high floor, and projects to be a solid NHL contributor for years to come. Slafkovsky is quickly rocketing up scouts draft boards, but given the fact that Wright plays a premium position, and the Habs need for a centre behind Nick Suzuki, he’s likely the pick at number 1.
2.New Jersey Devils – 8.5% chance of winning lottery, 27-46-9 (63pts)
Needs: Top 4 D, Top 6 Winger, Goaltender
Possible Selections: Shane Wright – C (Kingston, OHL), Juraj Slafkovsky – LW (TPS – Finland), David Jiricek – D (Czech)
In all likelihood New Jersey has the easiest job on draft night: Pick whichever of Wright/Slafkovsky is still available. But don’t rule out the possibility of them picking a defenseman here either. While smart money is on one of the two previously mentioned forwards, New Jersey gave up a ton of shots and goals against in 2021-22, making life miserable for whomever had the misfortune of being in nets for the Devils on any given night. With Subban set to hit free agency, is there a chance they look to replace his minutes with a top end defender? Perhaps, albeit a small one.
3.Arizona Coyotes – 13.5% chance of winning lottery, 25-50-7 (57pts)
Needs: Top 4 D, Top 6 forward, A new arena
Possible Selections: Logan Cooley – C (USNTDP), David Jiricek – D (Czech), Simon Nemec – D (Slovakia)
Arizona is an interesting team to watch in the lead up to the draft. With rumours circulating that Clayton Keller, and Jakob Chychrun could be on the move, what the Coyotes choose to do with their current roster likely dictates what happens on draft night. If either player does in fact get moved, expect Arizona to fill their position at number 3 overall. If both stay in the desert, we’re leaning slightly towards Logan Cooley given the team’s lack of centre depth at the moment.
4.Seattle Kraken – 11.5% chance of winning lottery, 27-49-6 (60pts)
Needs: Top 4 D, Top 6 forward
Possible Selections: Logan Cooley – C (USNTDP), David Jiricek – D (Czech), Simon Nemec – D (Slovakia)
If Cooley falls to them at number 4, it’ll be a tempting pick to make as the team could bank on a 1-2 punch of Beniers & Cooley up the middle for the foreseeable future. However Seattle is likely to take a defenseman here at number 4 to shore up their blueline. In their entire system, the Kraken only have 1 right shot defenseman, which makes David Jiricek the likely pick here.
5.Philadelphia Flyers – 9.5% chance of winning lottery, 25-46-11 (61pts)
Needs: Top 4 D
Possible Selections: David Jiricek – D (Czech), Simon Nemec – D (Slovakia)
While it’s tough to project what the Flyers needs will be given the rumours that Konecny could be on the move, and the team’s current lack of a head coach, Philly is likely taking a blue liner to address a sore spot that’s plagued them for years. Yandle is a free agent, and there are genuine concerns about Ellis’ health, meaning there’s minutes to be filled on the back end immediately in Philadelphia. Simon Nemec has been playing against men in his home country and is coming off a tremendous playoff run (17pts in 19 games), so expect the Flyers to take whichever of Nemec/Jiricek are still on the board.
6.Columbus Blue Jackets (via Chicago) – 7.5% chance of winning lottery, 37-38-7 (81pts)
Needs: Top 6 Forward
Possible Selections: Joakim Kemell – RW (JYP, Finland), Brad Lambert – C (Pelicans, Finland), Matthew Savoie – C (Winnipeg, WHL)
With the top two defensemen almost assuredly off the board by this point, expect Columbus to try to acquire a top 6 forward to bolster their 14th ranked offense. Whether they decide to go with a centre or a winger largely depends on what roles Jarmo Kekäläinen thinks Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson can play for the club down the line. If he believes they’re good enough to centre the team’s top two lines, then Columbus could take Kemell who may have 35-40 goal potential in his future. However, if they think a move to the wing may better suit Johnson’s skill set, then don’t be shocked if they roll the dice on Savoie/Lambert.
7.Ottawa Senators – 6.5% chance of winning lottery, 33-41-7 (73pts)
Needs: Top 6 Forward, Top 4 D
Possible Selections: Joakim Kemell – RW (JYP, Finland), Cutter Gauthier – LW (USNTDP), Frank Nazar – C (USNTDP)
Given recent comments from Pierre Dorion, it would be a surprise if the Sens don’t move this pick for an NHL ready body ahead of the draft. If however they’re unable to find a deal to their liking, then the priority is to find a high end talent to ride shotgun on Tim Stutzle’s wing. Player’s being thrust into roles they weren’t accustomed to plagued the Sens in 2021-22, as third liners became 2nd liners out of necessity, and grinders were expected to carry offensive loads for the team. If Joakim Kemell is still there at 7, and the Sens hold onto the pick, this seems like a match made in heaven for Stutzle & Co.
8.Detroit Red Wings – 6% chance of winning lottery, 32-40-10 (74pts)
Needs: Centre behind Dylan Larkin
Possible Selections: Matthew Savoie – C (Winnipeg, WHL), Brad Lambert – C (Pelicans, Finland), Marco Kasper – C (Rogle, Sweden)
It would almost be shocking if the Red Wings don’t select a centre here given the dearth of options behind Dylan Larkin at the moment. If Savoie is still available, Detroit likely runs to the podium to make the selection, but if not, they could take a look at some of the European centremen available to help shore up their 2nd line. Marco Kasper is an intriguing pick given his size, and ability to generate offense himself. It also doesn’t hurt that newly appointed VP of Hockey Operations Nicklas Lidstrom has likely seen more than his fair share of Kasper highlights this season.
9.Buffalo Sabres – 5% chance of winning lottery, 32-39-11 (75pts)
Needs: Best player available
Possible Selections: Jonathan Lekkerimaki – RW (Djurgarden, Sweden), Frank Nazar – C (USNTDP), Conor Geekie – C (Winnipeg, WHL)
As soon as Devon Levi is ready to make the jump to the NHL full time, that’s when the Sabres window to compete finally starts to open. Until then, the team should continue to stockpile talent irrespective of position. With players like Quinn, and Peterka ready to join Krebs/Skinner/Olofsson/Tuch on the wings, you could argue that Buffalo would be well served selecting a centreman. In reality though, with a young core, and defensive pillars like Dahlin and Power on the back end, Buffalo should let the board come to them and select the best prospect available when their turn rolls around, rather than potentially reaching to grab a centre.
10.Anaheim Ducks – 3.5% chance of winning lottery, 31-37-14 (76pts)
Needs: Top 6 Forward, Top 4 D
Possible Selections: Cutter Gauthier – LW (USNTDP), Marco Kasper – C (Rogle, Sweden), Brad Lambert – C (Pelicans, Finland)
With Ryan Getzlaf officially calling it a career, the Ducks are pretty thin at centre at the moment. Anaheim could elect to trade back and recoup some additional draft capital if they don’t like how the board is shaping up, but if Cutter Gauthier is available, then GM Pat Verbeek would likely be thrilled to take him. At 6’3” 195lbs, Gauthier adds some size to the Ducks lineup, and has even dabbled at centre as well. That versatility could be an extremely attractive proposition for the Ducks if the USNTDP player is still kicking around.
11.San Jose Sharks – 3% chance of winning lottery, 32-37-13 (77pts)
Needs: Top 6 Forward
Possible Selections: Brad Lambert – C (Pelicans, Finland), Conor Geekie – C (Winnipeg, WHL), Danila Yurov – RW (Magnitogorsk, Russia)
The Sharks finished with the 3rd fewest goals in the league this season, trailing only the Flyers and Coyotes. San Jose also has Burns, Karlsson, Merkley and Vlasic pencilled in for the next few years on the blue line as well, so one would assume they’ll take a forward at 11. If Lambert is still there when the Sharks are due to pick, that’s likely as much as the smooth skating forward will fall. At one point he was a consensus top 3 pick in this year’s draft class, before a down year soured some scouts on his potential. Yurov is another interesting name to keep an eye on, but how many VISA sanctions or international restrictions on Russian players are still in effect is a unique wrinkle which could affect his draft stock.
12.Columbus Blue Jackets – 2.5% chance of winning lottery, 37-38-7 (81pts)
Needs: Top 6 Forward
Possible Selections: Conor Geekie – C (Winnipeg, WHL), Danila Yurov – RW (Magnitogorsk, Russia), Frank Nazar – C (USNTDP)
Depending on who they select with their 6th overall pick, there’s a chance Columbus could reach a bit here for a defenseman like Korchinski or Mateychuk if they feel like they’re set up front. But you can never have enough top end talent and there’s likely to still be some well respected prospects on the board at 12, which could see the Blue Jackets double-dip with forwards. Geekie would add some size to their lineup, and if they’re able to address some perceived skating deficiencies, he could end up being the steal of the draft. If this were their only first rounder, they likely go with a safer choice, but if he’s still around, the upside might be too tantalizing to pass up.
13.New York Islanders – 2% chance of winning lottery, 37-35-10 (84pts)
Needs: Left shot defenseman, Top 6 Winger
Possible Selections: Danila Yurov – RW (Magnitogorsk, Russia), Jonathan Lekkerimaki – RW (Djurgarden, Sweden), Denton Mateychuk – D (Moose Jaw, WHL)
Much like Ottawa, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Islanders package this pick to acquire an NHL ready body now. If however they hold onto it, they’ll likely take the best prospect available given their current shallow farm system. It would be a stretch to think that any of the prospects remaining at 13 would be instantly NHL ready, but not impossible. A more realistic scenario though is the Isles taking a high end winger or future partner for Noah Dobson, and hoping that Aatu Raty can crack their lineup next season.
14.Winnipeg Jets – 1.5% chance of winning lottery, 39-32-11 (89pts)
Needs: Retool or Rebuild?
Possible Selections: Denton Mateychuk – D (Moose Jaw, WHL), Frank Nazar – C (USNTDP), Owen Pickering – D (Swift Current, WHL)
The Jets are the most volatile team to try to predict at the moment as no one outside of their front office has a firm handle on whether the team plans to retool on the fly, or tear down and start from scratch. Seemingly everyone outside of Kyle Connor has been linked to a trade rumour of some sort in the past few weeks. Depending on whether any rostered players actually leave town or not, will dictate what direction Winnipeg goes in here. If Manitoba born defenseman Denton Mateychuk is still around though, it’s hard to see the Jets letting him get past them at 14.
15.Vancouver Canucks – 0.5% chance of winning lottery, 40-30-12 (92pts)
Needs: Bottom 6 Forward, PK help
Possible Selections: Nathan Gaucher – C (Quebec, QMJHL), Jimmy Snuggerud – RW (USNTDP), Jack Hughes – C (North Eastern)
The Canucks penalty kill was a train wreck in 2021-22, finishing tied with Seattle for the 2nd worst unit in the league. Vancouver has a solid top 6, but struggled to get results from the bottom half of their lineup during a couple stretches of the season. The Canucks don’t have any particularly glaring needs, and with many scouts not seeing a massive drop off in talent between picks 8-20, they can afford to take a swing at a prospect they may have ranked higher than others. That might come in the form of Nathan Gaucher, who’s been praised for his consistency, or Snuggerud who can still impact the game with his physicality if his scoring touch is off.
16.Buffalo Sabres (via Vegas) – 0.5% chance of winning lottery, 32-39-11 (75pts)
Needs: Best player available
Possible Selections: Kevin Korchinski – D (Seattle, WHL), Pavel Mintyukov (Saginaw, OHL), Owen Pickering – D (Swift Current, WHL)
Assuming Buffalo takes a forward with their earlier pick, they’ll likely take a long hard look at what blue liners may have fallen when their turn at 16 comes around. Mintyukov’s offensive upside is massive, but he has a tendency to get caught out of position defensively. The same can be said about smooth skating Kevin Korchinski who’s another offensive minded defenseman. But if you’re pairing either up with a Dahlin or Power on the back end, some of those defensive lapses can be compensated for. This feels like a good spot for Buffalo to roll the dice and see if they hit the jackpot with a high upside blue liner.
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @JKyleSkinner