UFC Columbus Betting Guide

UFC Columbus: Blaydes vs Daukaus – 3.26.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Columbus: Blaydes vs Daukaus. After delivering an awesome card last weekend in London, the UFC is back stateside for another great night of fights. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 71-39-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 76-34-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated 3-25-2022 at 11pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Bruno Souza -120 vs Luis Saldana -110

Anthony: Our card opens with a bout at featherweight between Luis Saldana and Bruno Souza. Saldana lost for the first time since 2017 in his recent bout against Austin Lingo. He looked incredible in the first round of that fight but an unfortunate foot injury left him compromised and fighting defensively in rounds two and three. He has very fast kicks, diverse striking and very solid output. Souza is more of a karate style striker that is less willing to throw in combination and take risks. He lost his last matchup with Melsik Baghdasaryan who is a very similar style opponent to Saldana. Souza dropped all three rounds due to insufficient volume and I see him suffering a similar loss if the judge’s get involved tonight. It is a very close fight but at near even odds and I am happy to bet on Saldana. Luis Saldana by Decision
Nick: Souza is a karate style fighter who does his best work striking at range. He can be tough to hit, but at the same time he seems too focused on his defense at times. This often results in him putting out very little volume on the feet, which means it’s difficult for him to put opponents away and to win fights on the scorecards. Saldana usually comes out aggressive. He’s content to stand and strike but we’ve also seen him lean on his grappling in certain matchups. Saldana’s cardio and conditioning seems questionable at best. I expect he’ll be the aggressor early here, but it’s going to be important for him to pace himself in case this fight is carried into the later rounds. We’ve seen Souza rocked against far worse strikers than Saldana on the regional scene, so it’s tough to want to back him here even though he’s likely going to have a cardio advantage. This is one of my least confident picks on the card, but I see Saldana as the rightful favorite. Luis Saldana by Decision

David Dvorak -125 vs Matheus Nicolau -105

Anthony: I am excited for this bout at flyweight between David Dvorak and Matheus Nicolau. This is one of the closest matchups on the entire card. These are two very good fighters that have the ability to really mix things up on the feet. Nicolau is not afraid to alternate between southpaw and orthodox. He has very good distance management and there is certainly a path to victory for Nicolau to win on volume alone if he can be the aggressor. I would very much like to see him stay on the outside and utilize both his kicks and striking from range in order to avoid fighting Dvorak in close. Nicolau can also mix in some offensive grappling although I do not see him shooting too often against this style of opponent. It would not surprise me to see either man piece up the other, but thus far Nicolau has proven himself against superior competition. This is his second stint in the UFC and he already earned impressive wins over Tim Elliott and Manel Kape. Dvorak will not be showing him anything he hasn’t seen before. Matheus Nicolau by Decision
Nick: We have a fun scrap here between two interesting prospects at flyweight. Dvorak is well-rounded. His striking seems to improve every time we see him fight and he’s more than content to grind on his opponents, utilizing his grappling to control position. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2012, but this matchup with Nicolau represents a considerable step up in competition for him. Dvorak works well behind his jab. He has a very high fight-IQ. He has no singular standout skill, but he’s fundamentally sound which means he can compete at a very high level no matter where his fights go. Nicolau is an underrated striker. He does a good job moving in and out of the range of his opponents. He’s a decent grappler as well, especially defensively. The biggest knock on him is that he sometimes waits for fights to come to him. He’s coming off impressive wins over Manel Kape and Tim Elliott, but both of those fights were extremely close and could have gone either way. Both of these fighters compete at a very high level and this is certainly a matchup I could see going either way. I prefer Dvorak here as I expect he’ll be the aggressor. Nicolau looked hesitant in his recent fights and even though he won in those spots, I expect that style could spell trouble for him in this matchup. David Dvorak by Decision

Manon Fiorot -440 vs Jennifer Maia +340

Anthony: This is a matchup at flyweight between Manon Fiorot and Jennifer Maia. Nobody is as high on Manon Fiorot as me. I deemed her a title contender in this division after a single UFC fight. She has incredible hand speed and power for this division, landing more than seven significant strikes per minute. The combinations are fluid and she also does a very good job defending and evading her opponent’s strikes. Very few can match her mobility and her precision striking skills. Maia is always a tough out but she really is going to struggle here against Fiorot. She is not one to often shoot for takedowns but given what we have seen from Maia on the feet, that may be her only path to victory. Fiorot is my largest position of the week once again, but I would not jump on for too much with how wide the line has gotten. Some fans are theorizing she may be entering this fight with a leg injury but I do not buy it. I am expecting a unanimous decision victory and at least 100 landed strikes for The Beast here this evening. It is a step up in competition without a doubt, but I think Fiorot extends the winning streak to nine. Manon Fiorot by Decision
Nick: Fiorot is primarily a striker. She times her kicks well to set up her punches. She can still show power even as she backs away from her opponents and while she’d prefer to stand and trade, her grappling is more than sufficient as a decorated judoka. She has an excellent gas tank as she already has multiple five round wins under her belt. This does represent a step up in competition for Fiorot, but I expect she’ll pass the test. Maia throws a lot of volume as a striker, and she’s more than willing to eat shots to throw them. She has decent grappling ability as well, but she’s definitely more content fighting on the feet. Maia was completely outclassed when she took on the champion Valentina Shevchenko, but she did have a few positive moments and she even stole a round as a +1000 underdog. While she lost convincingly, she did look a lot better against the Champ than anyone really expected. For this reason alone, I’m not loving the line here. Still, Fiorot is the rightful favorite. Maia may have a slight grappling advantage but I don’t see her closing the distance effectively enough to utilize it. I expect Fiorot to roll here as she continues to climb the ranks at 125. Manon Fiorot by Decision

Aliaskhab Khizriev -860 vs Dennis Tiuliulin +535

Anthony: Next is a middleweight bout between Aliaskhab Khizriev and Dennis Tiuliulin. Khizriev earned his way into the UFC with a win on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2020 but makes his promotional debut today. Khizriev has had numerous bookings canceled and Tiuliulin is stepping in on short notice to face him here. Tiuliulin has serious power for this division but after digging into his resume it is clear he does not belong. Khizriev is far more technical everywhere and certainly should control this fight for an easy victory. He fights out of Makhachkala, Russia and has a suffocating style dragging opponents to the mat. I love his urgency to finish fights and downward pressure he melts opponents with as soon as they hit the mat. There is no way to justify betting him at now -800 or worse, but I recommend taking him inside the distance here. Eight of Khizriev’s professional wins have come by way of finish. Aliaskhab Khizriev by Round One Submission
Nick: We have a matchup here between two UFC debutants fighting at 185 pounds. Aliaskhab is a highly regarded prospect who comes into this matchup at an undefeated 13-0. He’s coming off an impressive Contender Series win over Henrique Shiguenmoto, which took place back in September of 2020. Khizriev is an extremely talented grappler with excellent takedown entries and advanced submission ability once he gets his fights to the mat. He does an excellent job advancing position on grounded opponents. He’s competent on the feet, but most of his success comes via his dangerous grappling. It seems Tiuliulin is only getting a UFC shot here because he was one of the only guys willing to take on Khizriev. He’s strong, athletic and decent on the feet, but he telegraphs his power shots so they are fairly easy for opponents to defend. This feels like a matchup that was organized in order to boost Khizriev’s stock. The line has gotten completely out of hand, but I expect him to dominate here against a guy who likely doesn’t belong on the roster. Aliaskhab Khizriev by Round One Submission

Danaa Batgerel -135 vs Chris Gutierrez +105

Anthony: This is a bantamweight fight between Chris Gutierrez and Danaa Batgerel. Gutierrez is a striker with a lot of powerful weapons in his arsenal. Perhaps the biggest talking point for this fight are the leg kicks of Gutierrez. Specifically, the low calf kick. Gutierrez has finished opponents by chopping apart their lead leg and based on Batgerel’s long frame, I expect him to follow a similar game plan here today. I worry about Gutierrez getting clipped though as he closes the distance. He has a tendency to keep his hands low and that is a recipe for disaster against a power puncher like Batgerel. It will be crucial for Batgerel to protect his lead leg but I see him picking apart Gutierrez as this fight wears on. I would not be surprised to see him connect once again and win his third straight fight by knockout. These guys will mix things up a bit but overall, I see Batgerel having a clear edge while striking. His hands are going to be much more active than those of Gutierrez. Danaa Batgerel by Round Two KO
Nick: The greatest strength of Gutierrez is certainly his ability to throw devastating leg kicks. More than 50% of the strikes he’s thrown in the UFC are leg kicks and he’s shown he can utilize this attack effectively against a wide range of opponents. Danaa Batgerel is an extremely powerful and technical striker. He has outstanding countering ability and surprising power for a 135-pound fighter. This should be a very fun matchup as I expect both fighters here to be content to stand and trade. This is a tough one to call, but I prefer Batgerel here. He lands over six significant strikes per minute compared to Gutierrez who lands just over 4.5. He’s going to have a considerable power advantage here as well. As long as he doesn’t take too many leg-kicks while closing distance, I expect Batgerel to land the more damaging shots at a considerably higher volume. He should start to pull away as this fight wears on. Danaa Batgerel by Round Three KO

Karol Rosa -210 vs Sara McMann +170

Anthony: Here we have an interesting fight at women’s bantamweight between Sara McMann and Karol Rosa. This boils down to a grappler versus striker matchup. McMann is a former silver medal Olympian. She has utilized the takedown over the entirety of her career to control opponents on the mat. McMann is very physically strong but she has been declining quickly at the age of 41. She is often effective in the early rounds of fights only to quickly decline as her gas tank is emptied. Rosa is a much younger fighter who throws at a very high clip on the feet. Through four UFC bouts she has defended 90 percent of takedowns attempted, but she has fought a very weak schedule of opponents. McMann should be able to get this to the mat early and for that reason I will play the value at plus odds. She had the champion Juliana Pena on the ropes until caught in a late choke. I do not think Rosa will be quite as efficient as Pena when it comes to getting back to the feet. Sara McMann by Decision
Nick: Sara McMann is a former Olympic wrestler who finds most of her success grounding and controlling her opponents. She’s a decent striker offensively, but she takes a lot of damage in exchanges so most of her success comes securing takedowns and keeping her opponents on their backs. Rosa has landed nearly ten strikes per minute in the UFC. She’s going to have a massive advantage on the feet here, so she’s going to want to keep this fight standing as much as possible. I expect McMann finds the takedowns she wants early here, but I’m not confident in her cardio holding up for the better part of fifteen minutes. Rosa should be able to keep this fight standing for long enough to cause the more significant damage. The line feels too wide here, but I’m siding with Rosa. Karol Rosa by Decision

Neil Magny -255 vs Max Griffin +200

Anthony: The featured prelim is a bout at welterweight between Max Griffin and Neil Magny. After a rocky start to his UFC tenure, Griffin has rounded into form and won three consecutive fights. The performances have been very impressive but Magny represents a big step up in competition for him. Griffin has historically struggled against top level opponents like Zaleski dos Santos and Colby Covington. Magny will likely be able to implement his pressure grappling and clinch heavy style against Griffin with little threat of losing position. He is also the younger fighter despite having accrued much more UFC experience. A win today would tie Magny with Georges St-Pierre for the most wins in welterweight history. Griffin will need to win this fight standing but at range it will be a challenge for him to close the distance on Magny. We have seen Magny knocked out before but the power coming back from Griffin really does not concern me. I think Magny defends his ranking and cruises in this bout. His endurance is far superior to that of Griffin training at elevation and I see him winning a decision convincingly here. Neil Magny by Decision
Nick: Magny is a rangy striker who arguably does his best work in the clinch.He has a seemingly infinite gas tank and he’s shown an uncanny ability to wear on his opponents and take over as his fights wear on. Magny has excellent grappling ability, which was fully on display in a recent win over a tough out in Geoff Neal. He only secured two takedowns in that fight, but his frequent pursuit seemed to frustrate Neal which allowed Magny to to cause the more significant damage. Griffin is a well-rounded fighter, but his greatest strength is his athleticism. He has a very large frame for a welterweight and he’s shown solid strength against a variety of high level of competition. Griffin is coming off an impressive win over Carlos Condit. He certainly has more power than Magny does on the feet in this matchup, but he really hasn’t seen anyone quite on the level of Magny since he was KO’d by Colby Covington back in 2016. Griffin will be dangerous early, but I expect Magny to once again weaponize his cardio as he mixes in his grappling to win this once convincingly on the scorecards. This feels like a stepdown in competition for Magny coming off that impressive win over Neal. Neil Magny by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Viacheslav Borshchev -150 vs Marc Diakiese +120

Anthony: The main card opens with a bout between Marc Diakiese and Viacheslav Borshchev. This is the second bout of the year for Borshchev who had a first-round finish over Dakota Bush in January. He is an elite kickboxer who has showcased his striking proficiency in the short time he has been fighting mixed martial arts. His professional debut came in 2019 and since then he’s already accrued five wins by finish. I really like his ability to land precisely from range and vary his attacks to keep opponents guessing. I love his attacks to the body as well. Diakiese is well rounded and capable of winning fights wherever they may take place, but he will get absolutely picked apart if forced to stand with Borshchev today. He is not nearly as accurate or aggressive a striker. The plan for Diakiese will be to bring this fight to the mat but I am not overly concerned with the defensive grappling of Slava Claus. Borshchev was taken down twice in each of his last two fights yet remained calm and found his way back to the feet rather easily. The time spent training at Team Alpha Male should have him ready to counter wrestle and create space. Viacheslav Borshchev by Round Two KO
Nick: Borshchev is primarily a kickboxer. He throws extremely powerful shots with all of his limbs and he seems to have excellent head movement and footwork. As talented as he is on the feet, his grappling leaves a lot to be desired. He recently shifted camps to Team Alpha Male to focus on his wrestling, but he’s going to have trouble against the stronger wrestlers in this division. Diakiese is a talented striker in his own right. He’s technically sound with underrated power. He does a good job mixing kicks into his combinations and he’s excellent in the clinch and offensively out of breaks. He’s going to have a considerable grappling advantage in this matchup, so the key for him here will be taking this fight to the mat and keeping it there as much as possible. While I’m not confident in Diakiese executing an intelligent game plan, he has more paths to victory here. Borshchev is certainly capable of winning via KO, but Diakiese is more well-rounded with the more proven cardio. This is a low confidence play, but I’m siding with Diakiese here as an underdog. I’m hoping he leans on his glaring grappling advantage to wear on Borshchev’s cardio and take over in the later rounds. Marc Diakiese by Decision

Illir Latifi -200 vs Aleksei Oleinik +160

Anthony: Next is a heavyweight bout with Illir Latifi taking on Aleksei Oleinik. We normally would not see two veterans like this squaring off, but both settled on fighting each other today after their originally scheduled fights were canceled. I’m a very big fan of Oleinik. He has been choking out high level UFC heavyweights for numerous years and began mixed martial arts fighting before I was even born. At this stage of his career though, Oleinik lacks the speed and athleticism to threaten opponents on the feet. His ground game is still lethal but we have seen him struggle to take fights to the mat as of late. Latifi is a heavy hitter who proved to me in his last fight that he can still get it done at this level. He trains with a great team at Allstars in Sweden. While Latifi’s best work was done at 205 pounds, he is similar in frame to Oleinik. It really hurts me to fade The Boa Constrictor and root against him earning his 60th career win here. I just believe Latifi has the speed advantage and grappling acumen sharp enough to avoid getting submitted. He has never been taken down in his UFC career. Illir Latifi by Round One KO
Nick: Illir Latifi is a former light heavyweight, but he won’t be outsized by much here against one of the division’s smaller fighters in Aleksei Oleinik. For the first time in his career, Oleinik is coming off three consecutive losses. There’s a good chance he’ll be cut from the roster if he falls again in this spot. He’s an extremely talented grappler with outstanding BJJ, with forty-six of his fifty-nine professional wins coming via submission. Latifi has never been submitted before, which should be a key for him here. He should have a cardio advantage over Oleinik and while I wouldn’t be surprised if Oleinik caught him in something early, it seems more likely that he’s able to keep this fight standing for the better part of three rounds. Oleinik could throw more volume, but I expect Latifi to land the more damaging shots. Additionally, I’m more confident in his ability to stay fresh for three rounds. Another low confidence play, but Latifi is the rightful favorite. Illir Latifi by Decision

Askar Askarov -380 vs Kai Kara-France +305

Anthony: This is a very high-level matchup between Kai Kara-France and Askar Askarov. With Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo scheduled to fight for a fourth time, the winner of this bout tonight should be next in line to face the division’s champion. Askarov is undefeated with only a draw against Moreno maligning his record. He is a wrestler who often controls his opponents on the mat in route to dominant victories. He has accurate striking but really does not offer much of a threat when fights are standing. Kara-France is just the opposite with exceptional kickboxing and heavy hands. We saw him overcome adversity in the past when in a prolonged grappling exchange with Rogerio Bonterin, but Askarov is a much tougher test. With that grappling advantage there is no denying that Askarov should be favored but I think these odds have gotten out of hand. Askarov has yet to get a third-round takedown in the UFC and has never controlled an opponent for more than five minutes in a fight. Kara-France also has 87 percent takedown defense. I think the striking discrepancy will be evident on the feet and Kara-France will have numerous opportunities to really put a hurting on Askarov. Bettors seem to be disrespecting him despite the fact he enters tonight having won two straight fights by knockout. Kai Kara-France by Round Three KO
Nick: Kai Kara-France out of City Kickboxing is the better striker in this one. He has a powerful overhand right and does a good job making sure that the strikes he throws are meaningful. The one real knock on him is that he tends to find himself in tough positions as he takes his foot off the gas at inopportune times. He seemingly corrected these errors his last time out in an impressive KO win over Cody Garbrandt, but he’s in a much different spot here against a versatile fighter in Askar Askarov. Askar Askarov is one of the more underrated fighters on the UFC roster. He has solid striking, but he’s found most of his success grappling, as one of the best wrestlers in the world at 125. Kara-France is live for an upset here if he could keep this fight standing. However, I don’t expect he can. Askarov averages nearly three successful takedowns per fifteen minutes and Kara-France has never seen a grappler anywhere near the level of his opponent in this matchup. I expect Askarov to lean on a wrestling heavy gameplan to win this one convincingly. Askar Askarov by Decision

Matt Brown -115 vs Bryan Barberena -115

Anthony: The featured bout is a welterweight fight between two veterans as Matt Brown takes on Bryan Barberena. This is a homecoming for Brown who was born in Xenia and represents Cincinnati. I expect the crowd to fully support him here inside the cage. I really do not feel confident taking him at this point in his career but the matchup does seem to be rather favorable today. Brown has looked incredibly slow in his recent performances, but the power is clearly still there as he crumpled Dhiego Lima with a right cross in his last bout. He also should hold the advantage grappling in this bout as he continues to implement wrestling when available to great effect. Barberena is not as technical a striker but he does pose a danger trading on the feet. He will likely have a higher output than Brown and that is why I believe takedowns to be the key here. Given the level of competition each has been facing I do lean the way of Brown at near even money. It is a very volatile fight so I do not plan to bet much, but I do see him getting his hand raised here in a back and forth affair. Matt Brown by Decision
Nick: Barbarena has fought some of the toughest welterweights in the UFC. He’s primarily a brawler. While it is evident he’s past his prime, he’s still very dangerous when striking at range or out of breaks. Matt Brown has been on the UFC roster since 2008. He still has his signature KO power, but there’s no denying the fact he’s lost a lot of speed over the years. Brown does a good job mixing vicious knees and elbows into his combinations. As good as he is on the feet, Brown’s clearest potential back to victory here would be to try to take Barberena to the ground and control position. Brown is the sharper striker in this matchup, but Barberena carries a terrible 58% takedown defense. Brown is the older fighter here, but Barberena seems to have taken more damage. Barberena has endured several life saving surgical procedures and in his last fight against Jason Witt, he was rocked several times. I like both of these guys, but I see Brown as the far more dangerous fighter in this matchup. He can win either on the feet or by leaning on his grappling. Brown is one of my preferred value bets on this card. His chin is a bit of a concern, but I love him at a near even money here. Matt Brown by Round Two KO

Alexa Grasso -255 vs Joanne Wood +200

Anthony: The co-main event is a matchup at flyweight between Joanne Wood and Alexa Grasso. I believe the only reason this fight is so high up the card is due to the perceived star power of Grasso. Wood has lost three of her last four fights and seems to be hitting a wall in terms of development. Taila Santos is regarded as a future title contender and Wood got finished by her in November of last year. Perhaps the UFC is feeding Wood to Grasso in order to build her resume. She represented Mexico and performed very well in her last fight which was also the night’s co-headliner. Her boxing is excellent and I see Grasso getting the better of Wood in these striking exchanges. Wood is most dangerous in the clinch and if Grasso stays on the outside here, she should cruise to another victory. Alexa Grasso by Decision
Nick: Wood has a solid Thai-clinch and is a solid striker overall. She has more power than a lot of the other girls in this division, but her volume is what usually helps her win when her fights hit the scorecards. The line is definitely too wide here as Wood has been tested against the higher level of competition. That being said, this feels like a matchup she’s being used to boost the stock of Alexa Grasso. Grasso is coming off impressive wins over Ji Yeon Kim and Maycee Barber. She’s been showing dramatic improvements every time we see her fight, and it feels like the UFC is hoping to boost her stock as a potential future opponent for Valentina Shevchenko. Wood is certainly live for an upset here, but I expect Grasso to land the more damaging shots. Wood seems to be slowing down as she’s getting up there in age. I expect Grasso to rise to the occasion. Alexa Grasso by Decision

Curtis Blaydes -450 vs Chris Daukaus +325

Anthony: The main event will be a heavyweight scrap between Curtis Blaydes and Chris Daukaus. After being flatlined by Derrick Lewis, Blaydes bounced back in his most recent bout as he methodically beat down Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He is currently the best wrestler in this division and the consistent gameplan for Blaydes is taking down and punishing opponents. He averages ten takedowns for every 25 minutes in the octagon. The wrestling technique he utilizes is excellent but the size and strength of Blaydes also make him a hard guy to stuff. Daukaus has showcased very little defensive grappling over the course of his tenure in the UFC. He has very proficient jiu jitsu but any position in this fight where Blaydes is on top will be dangerous for him. The hand speed and boxing of Daukaus helped him quickly climb the heavyweight rankings but I see him struggling for the next few years against these top tier opponents. He has power but it will take a lot of work for him to crack the chin of Blaydes. He does not hit nearly as hard as Derrick Lewis or Francis Ngannou, who are responsible for the only losses Blaydes has suffered so far. Blaydes also poses a serious threat on the feet which allows him to very easily get to his opponent’s legs or back to secure takedowns. I would love to see Daukaus pull off the upset here but I think Blaydes completely dominates him. The betting odds are justified and Blaydes would remain a parlay piece for me even if favored a bit more. This is a less intimidating matchup than Rozenstruik who he was a -350 against. Curtis Blaydes by Round Three KO

Nick: Blaydes is primarily a wrestler and one of the best heavyweights in the world in terms of grappling ability. He has excellent takedown entries and averages more takedowns per minute than any other heavyweight in UFC history. Daukaus has fast hands for a heavyweight. He’s a bit undersized for the division, but he’s been continuously adding bulk and muscle and it seems that he’s only going to continue to build into this frame. Daukaus is going to have a speed advantage here. He’s far from a physical specimen, but he’s already in much better shape than he was when he made his UFC debut and his quickness can definitely be weaponized here against a fighter in Blaydes who can be ploddy on the feet. While Daukaus would have an advantage if this stays standing, it most certainly won’t. I expect Blaydes to score however many takedowns he needs to eventually take Daukaus out via ground-and-pound. Daukaus’ cardio has never been tested extensively and Blaydes has been known to wear out his opponents in brutal fashion. Curtis Blaydes by Round Two KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_