The Numbers Behind the Grichuk & Tapia Trade

Swapping Grichuk for Tapia Provides Blue Jays Improved Roster Construction 

   A change of scenery is sometimes beneficial for both parties involved. 

   After spending the last four seasons in Toronto, outfielder Randal Grichuk’s tenure with the Blue Jays ended Thursday, as he was traded to the Colorado Rockies. 

   In addition to Grichuk, who’s under contract through 2023 at $10.3 million per season, the Blue Jays also sent cash considerations along with him in this deal. As compensation, they acquired fellow outfielder Raimel Tapia and prospect Adrian Pinto. 

   While the timing of the trade was surprising to most, the fact that it occured wasn’t all that shocking. For some time now, it was obvious that both sides needed to part ways in the future, which has now come to pass. 

   At 30, one of Grichuk’s main goals this season was to earn regular playing time, but on Toronto’s roster, that likely wouldn’t have been possible. Without a vacant outfield spot, the right-hander was projected to serve as the club’s fourth outfielder – a role he likely wouldn’t have enjoyed. 

   Now, the 6’2” outfielder is expected to receive an opportunity to serve as an everyday player in Colorado, where his power should flourish at Coors Field. 

   On the other hand, the trade allows the Blue Jays to ship out someone who featured a similar hitting profile to the rest of their offence while also improving their roster construction, as well. As a throw-in, they landed an intriguing prospect in Pinto, who was named the DSL’s Most Valuable Player last season. 

   By acquiring Tapia, Toronto’s front office added a more traditional fourth outfielder to its roster, and someone who can better complement this current group. 

   Most importantly, the left-hander will provide some much-needed balance to Toronto’s right-hand heavy line-up. Even in a reserve role, he’s enjoyed a respectable amount of success against right-handed pitchers, sporting a career .278/.328/.402 slash line. 

   Granted, Tapia is a completely different type of hitter than Grichuk. However, that could potentially work in the Blue Jays’ favour. Instead of featuring another slugger, they’ve now inserted a contact/on-base contributor, helping to diversify their offense. 

   Despite possessing very little power, the 6’3” outfielder consistently puts balls in play, which has seen him accrue to a career .335 BABIP, .280 AVG and an 81.1 percent contact rate. 

   Better yet, he can also spray balls to all three fields, resulting in a 31.4 percent pull percentage, a 37.9 percent centre field percentage and a 30.7 percent opposite field percentage through his six major league seasons. 

   Grichuk has long been considered more of an all-or-nothing hitter throughout the majority of his career. He did little to change that narrative in 2021, as the veteran slugger posted a measly .266 BABIP, .241 AVG, 73.7 per cent contact rate, 39.2 percent pull percentage, 35.2 percent centre percentage and a 25.7 percent opposite percentage. 

   Another area where Tapia can provide some upside is with his stellar plate discipline. Unlike Grichuk, who registered a 20.9 percent strikeout rate in ‘21, the former Rockie has proven extremely difficult to punch out. 

   At times, the lefty extends the strike zone as his 33.0 per cent chase rate ranked in the 13th percentile last season. He did however only strike out 13.1 percent of the time – placing him in the top four percent of the majors in that category. 

   Paired with his ability to limit swings and misses, Tapia was also more effective at generating walks than Grichuk in ‘21. Albeit, not by a large margin. His 7.5 percent rate exceeded his counterpart’s by only 2.5 percent. 

   From a speed standpoint, Tapia also figures to be far more impactful for the Blue Jays than Grichuk has in previous seasons. 

   Even though both players produced similar sprint speeds a year ago, with Tapia (28.3) placing in the 81st percentile and Grichuk (28.1) in the 76th, the way each of them utilizes their speed greatly differs. 

   In Colorado, the Dominican native made an impact beyond just stealing bases, which he’s done 45 times in his career, as he generated a 10.2 BsR – baserunning runs above average. Not only was he an elite base stealer, but he also earned his team runs by travelling first to third and scoring from all three bases numerous times. 

   As for Grichuk, well, in addition to logging just 16 career stolen bases, he’s performed to a -3.3 BsR – making him a negative run contributor on the base paths. 

   At the major-league level, Tapia has spent the majority of his time in left field – an area where Toronto has struggled defensively – registering a +3 OAA and a +7 DRS across 2,128 1/3 career innings. 

   Historically, left field has been his primary location, although he’s capable of playing all three outfield positions, those opportunities just haven’t always presented themselves in the past. Not to mention, playing in centre at Coors Field – which extends to 415 feet – is no small task. 

   Based on Tapia’s speed though, there’s little doubt he couldn’t be effective while occasionally filling in for teammate George Springer, who’s 32 and is coming off an injury-riddled 2021 campaign. 

   When it comes to Grichuk’s defense however, he’s best suited for right field, where he’s compiled a career +17 OAA and a +3 DRS through 2,527.0 innings. Over the years, he’s proven far less reliable in centre, resulting in his -3 OAA across 3,123 1/3 innings. 

   Factoring in Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s poor defence in left field (-13 OAA in 1,913 1/3 career innings), Tapia is a far superior defensive fit for Toronto’s roster than Grichuk. Whether it’s as a late-game replacement or part-time player, he’s the better option to improve this club’s run prevention. 

   From a line-up construction standpoint, the outfielder swap should provide manager Charlie Montoyo and his staff a little more flexibility. Instead of sharing the designated hitter spot between two players, Grichuk and Alejandro Kirk, the Blue Jays’ offense-first catcher now has it all to himself. 

   Sure, the coaching staff will largely want to rotate several players through the DH position this season. But more often than not, fans will likely see Kirk commanding that job moving forward, allowing him to receive consistent at-bats.  

   This isn’t a matter of simply replacing Grichuk with another option. Instead, it should be viewed as a way of reshuffling the deck to better align Toronto’s outfield depth. 

   When Grichuk first arrived in 2018, he was a perfect fit for this rebuilding squad. Unfortunately, that’s no longer the case. Given their current competitive window, this team needed to better position itself to make the playoffs this season, and that’s precisely what they’ve done. 

   Just two weeks out from Opening Day 2022, the Blue Jays have further strengthened their position player group, increasing anticipation as the regular season nears.

-Thomas Hall

Twitter: @ThomasHall85

Photo: Jennifer Linnea. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.