UFC 271 Fight Picks

UFC 271: Adesanya vs Whittaker II – 2.12.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 271: Adesanya vs Whittaker II. We have a stacked night of fights live from Houston tonight with a massive middleweight title rematch to be decided in the main event. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

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Current Record

Anthony: 22-12-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 21-13-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated 2-11-2022 at 8pm EST

Early Prelims- Start 5:30pm EST

Maxim Grishin -170 vs William Knight +145

Anthony: Opening the card is an interesting bout between Maxim Grishin and William Knight. This fight will now take place in the heavyweight division after coming together on short notice. Yesterday, Grishin made the light heavyweight limit while Knight came in 12 pounds heavy. As a result of this Knight will forfeit 40% of his purse to his opponent. It isn’t surprising to see Grishin accept the bout given that he is also big for 205 and came in heavy himself in his last fight. I think Grishin is certainly the superior striker given his wealth of kickboxing experience. He should score well while these two are fighting at range. However, Knight is the more physically imposing man and I see him dominating clinch exchanges in this bout. He averages more than two takedowns per fight and likely has his way with Grishin here if able to ground him. The other out for Knight is of course his heavy hands, particularly the left hook which has dropped numerous opponents before. I think the added weight gives him a clear advantage and at the current odds I am more than happy to back him once again. He can be stressful to watch as a bettor but Knight is my pick at odds this wide. William Knight by Decision
Nick: William Knight is built like a linebacker. He’s short for the division, but he carries a ton of muscle. He has a powerful base with decent grappling ability and knockout power on the feet. Many of Knight’s knockout victories have come after he was losing or behind on the scorecards. He’s more than willing to put himself in difficult positions in order to throw and land that knockout punch. He does a decent job stringing together powerful combinations and he has shown continuous improvement on the feet. Grishin is well-rounded, but he has no singular standout still. He has refined ability when it comes to his fundamentals, but he lacks true KO power and his offensive grappling is fairly mediocre. This is a tough one to call but I see Grishin’s sound fundamentals being enough to secure a win. While Knight will likely have a size advantage, he attempted to cut weight and failed miserably so there’s a decent chance he’s going to be compromised here. Maxim Grishin by Decision

Jeremiah Wells -240 vs Blood Diamond +185

Anthony: The next fight is in the welterweight division as Blood Diamond makes his UFC debut against Jeremiah Wells. This matchup came together on relatively short notice as Wells was actually scheduled to fight Tim Means last weekend. Orion Cosce was the original opponent for Blood Diamond but due to an injury he ceded the opportunity to Wells. These are prospects to keep an eye on largely due to the camps they hail from. Blood Diamond is a teammate of Israel Adesanya at City Kickboxing. He’s accrued over 50 fights worth of kickboxing experience and certainly is dangerous when these two are striking. Blood Diamond has incredible spinning attacks and kicks that completely floor his opponents. He’s undersized at welterweight but his flawless technique is a supplement for power, knocking down opponents with well-placed shots. Wells has a clear grappling advantage here and he probably gets the job done if able to secure a single takedown. Betting on the underdog is a risk I am willing to take simply due to the skill that Blood Diamond possesses. He will need to get the finish very early here but Wells is just as volatile a fighter. This one is probably going to end quickly either way. Blood Diamond by Round One KO
Nick: Wells is a fighter that likes to come out aggressive and try to overwhelm his opponents. We saw on full display in his impressive UFC debut, a KO upset victory as a +190 underdog against Warlley Alves. He’s an extremely powerful striker, but we really haven’t seen him tested extensively at this level. Wells is a BJJ blackbelt with three of his nine professional wins coming via submission, and I expect him to try to lean on that part of his game in this spot. Mike Matetha aka Blood Diamond will be making his UFC debut here. He is just 3-0 in professional MMA competition, but he’s extremely advanced on the feet. He does an excellent job utilizing kicks to control range. He’s flashy with a lot of power in all of his limbs, and he’s shown a solid chin and durability as well. If Blood Diamond can keep this fight standing I expect he outclasses Wells here. However, Wells has significantly more MMA experience so I’m not seeing that as a likely outcome. I expect Wells to score takedowns early and often until he ultimately finds an opening for a submission. If this was a kickboxing match Blood Diamond would be a heavy favorite. Wells’ more well-rounded game should prevail here. The line has gotten a bit too wide, but I’m siding with the favorite. Jeremiah Wells by Round One Submission

Sergey Morozov -215 vs Douglas Silva de Andrade +170

Anthony: Next is a bout at bantamweight between Sergey Morozov and Douglas Silva de Andrade. It was an impressive win for Morozov in his last fight as he secured at least one takedown in every round. His wrestling and judo are very solid and in every fight he’s getting more comfortable on the feet. Against an opponent like Silva de Andrade it seems obvious that the same game plan will work effectively. D’Silva is a dangerous striker that offers far less of a threat when he is defending from his back. I think the younger and more technical Morozov stays a step ahead of the veteran Brazilian here. Losses for Moroz include the likes of Movsar Evloev, Umar Nurmagomedov and a loss to Josh Rettinghouse that he was able to avenge. I think this is an opportunity for him to continue climbing the ranks. Sergey Morozov by Decision
Nick: Morozov is a powerful counter-striker. He does an excellent job reading and timing his opponents, using those reads to set up effective strikes and decent combinations. When he’s leading striking exchanges, he does a good job working in powerful body kicks. He’s comfortable on the feet, but his wrestling ability presents the clearest path to victory for him in this spot. Morozov sometimes over-exerts himself and leaves himself open to counters, which could prove costly here against a powerful Douglas Silva de Andrade. D’Silva is a brawler with surprisingly effective power. He’s very athletic, but what stands out about him is his toughness and aggressive style. He likes to pressure his opponents early in fights and often overwhelms them by doing so. If this fight stays standing it will be very close and competitive, but I expect Morozov to lean on his grappling here to grind out a win on the mat. Sergey Morozov by Decision

AJ Dobson -120 vs Jacob Malkoun -105

Anthony: This is an intriguing fight at middleweight between Jacob Malkoun and AJ Dobson. Malkoun is a fighter that punched his ticket to the UFC by fighting on the same card as teammate Robert Whittaker. He’s a very talented jiu jistu coach but the rest of his skillset is still rather limited. While he can certainly control opponents on the mat, I think an explosive young fighter like Dobson can at least keep Malkoun off of him early. Dobson choked out Hashem Arkhagha on Dana White’s Contender Series last Summer. He has very heavy hands and obviously we have seen Malkoun badly chin checked before. At near even odds I think this is a simple bet on Dobson. He has the size advantage and should be able to control things by landing strikes at range. In the larger cage here in Houston, I think Malkoun fails to get any takedowns secured. AJ Dobson by Round Two KO
Nick: Malkoun is one of the smaller middleweights on the UFC roster. Many believe he’s only on this card as he’s a training partner of headliner, Robert Whittaker. He was absolutely steam-rolled in his UFC debut against Phil Hawes. Hawes rushed Malkoun in that one and overwhelmed him with a barrage of powerful strikes. He bounced back nicely his last time out, leaning on a grappling heavy gameplan against Abdul Razak Alhassan. He avoided Alhassan’s power, secured several takedowns, controlled the fight on the ground for the better part of fifteen minutes on his way to a convincing decision. Given Malkoun was the 2019 ADCC Asia trials winner and a 2019 Pan Pacific gold medalist in Jiu-Jitsu, his grappling success at this level shouldn’t be surprising. AJ Dobson will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive first round submission. Dobson is somewhat of a traditional boxer in that he stands fairly straight up in exchanges. He has true KO power, but he’s fairly predictable in his approach and we’ve yet to see him tested against a high level of competition. Malkoun will need to be careful early here, but as long as he avoids Dobson’s big shots I see him securing the takedowns he needs to control where this one goes. Dobson seems to have some grappling ability, but nothing near the level of Malkoun. While I wouldn’t be surprised if he got caught and KO’d, Malkoun is the more well-rounded fighter of the two and to me he should be the favorite in this spot. Jakob Malkoun by Decision

Ronnie Lawrence -300 vs Mana Martinez +230

Anthony: The early prelims end with Mana Martinez taking on the hot bantamweight prospect Ronnie Lawrence. This is a striker versus grappler matchup as Lawrence’s wrestling has proven to be overwhelming in the lower weight divisions. He’s a smooth grappler with excellent jiu jitsu and top control. While Mana Martinez likely has a bright future ahead of him, he hasn’t quite developed enough to win a fight like this. Martinez carries some power and certainly can bombard opponents with high volume, but I think Lawrence has little to no trouble taking him down here. It’s easy to put down money on a fighter when you know exactly what the game plan will be. Lawrence is going to be in total control of this fight as soon as they hit the mat. Ronnie Lawrence by Decision
Nick: Lawrence pushes a serious pace, is well-rounded and he can finish a fight in a number of ways. He has crisp striking with good head movement, but his greatest strength is his powerful and relentless wrestling ability. Martinez is a technical striker with explosive movement and surprising power for a bantamweight. Eight of his nine professional wins have come via KO. Mana Martinez is coming off a win in his UFC debut, a hard fought but controversial decision over Guido Cannetti. Many expected to roll through Cannetti in that spot so while it was nice to see him win, it was a disappointing performance given expectations as a -280 favorite. It’s a small sample size, but Lawrence averages more than 10 takedowns per fifteen minutes in the UFC. Martinez’s takedown defense is mediocre at best, so as long as Lawrence avoids any big shots early he should be able to dominate here. I expect him to score double digit takedowns on his way to a win. Ronnie Lawrence by Decision

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Carlos Ulberg -250 vs Fabio Cherant +195

Anthony: New Zealand is represented once again here as Carlos Ulberg takes on Fabio Cherant in the light heavyweight division. Ulberg is a strong and powerful kickboxer that has made the transition rather seamlessly to mixed martial arts. The UFC debut did not go Ulberg’s way as Kennedy Nzechukwu beat him in the second round. The early pressure and volume for Ulberg was impressive but he didn’t conserve enough of his energy when chasing the early finish. Now that those nerves are gone I think we can expect a more measured approach from Ulberg who has had no problem surviving late into fights before. Ulberg’s frame helps in defending takedowns and this is a fight he really should cruise through if it takes place on the feet. Cherant has never knocked out an opponent before. The favorite seems like a safe bet in this one as Ulberg likely puts out Cherant early at kickboxing range. Carlos Ulberg by Round Two KO
Nick: Cherant throws primarily out of the southpaw stance. He does a good job managing distance, but he sometimes overexerts himself and leaves himself open to counters. This was his downfall in his most recent fight, a loss to William Knight. He seems to have decent grappling and submission ability, but he’s yet to find success against UFC level opponents. Carlos Ulberg is one of the main training partners of card headliner Israel Adesanya. Adesanya himself has described Ulberg as a prospect to keep an eye on in this division. Ulberg does a good job mixing in feints to trap his opponents. He’s a decorated kickboxer with knockout power, but he sometimes leaves himself open to damage in exchanges. He’s coming off a loss in his UFC debut. He looked excellent early in that fight against Kennedy Nzechukwu, but he blew through his gas tank and ended up KO’d by Nzechukwu in the middle of the second round. Cherant has been KO’d in two of his three professional losses. He’s going to have a grappling advantage here, but I don’t expect he really has the takedown entries to consistently ground the much taller Ulberg. Additionally, he’s nowhere near as durable as Ulberg’s most recent opponent. This is a low-level matchup so I don’t expect I’ll have much invested on this one. Still, Ulberg is the pick. Carlos Ulberg by Round One KO

Kyler Phillips -450 vs Marcelo Rojo +320

Anthony: Next is a fight at bantamweight between Kyler Phillips and Marcelo Rojo. It feels like these two are ready to brawl in what will be a fight largely contested on the feet. Rojo is a high volume and high-pressure striker that can quickly overwhelm his opponents. He’s difficult to get a read on as his lone UFC performance thus far came up weight against Charles Jourdain. Rojo really held his own early but was damaged by the end of three rounds. He seemed locked in all this week and I feel like the money has been pouring onto the opposite side for no reason. Phillips is an impressive product of the MMA Lab but in my opinion he’s a tad overrated. His career resume is still underwhelming and I don’t feel confident putting money onto him as such a large favorite. Rojo could very easily make this a brawl and sway the judges with his high output and willingness to exchange shots. Marcelo Rojo by Decision
Nick: Phillips throws diverse strikes and does a good job using feints to bait his opponents into powerful shots. Additionally, he’s athletic with a good gas tank and scrambling ability. He throws exciting and versatile spinning attacks, but he is also dangerous on the mat as a Carlson Gracie BJJ brown belt . No matter where his fights go, he seems talented enough to find success against a wide range of opponents at this level. He gassed out against Raulian Paiva and ended up losing a decision. He’ll need to be careful not to do the same in this spot, but his opponent isn’t exactly the type to drag him into those deeper waters. Three of Marcelo Rojo’s last four wins have come via first round knockout. As impressive as that may seem, he really hasn’t secured any wins over top quality competition. He showed solid durability his last time out against Charles Jourdain, but none of his skills really seemed to stand out and there’s nothing about him that makes me think he’s going to remain a mainstay on this roster in a stacked division. The price has gotten a bit out of hand, but Phillips is certainly the pick here. Kyler Phillips by Round Two Submission

Casey O’Neill -400 vs Roxanne Modafferi +300

Anthony: This is the 50th and final fight in the storied career of Roxanne Modafferi. She is a true pioneer of the sport, debuting as a professional in 2003 at an event in Japan. Very little respect was given to women in MMA back then but fighters like Modafferi opened the door for so many female athletes in the years to come. It’s fitting that she faces one of the hottest prospects in the UFC here, 24-year-old Casey O’Neill. The undefeated O’Neill has finished all three of her fights in the promotion so far. After having little to no issue with more live opponents than this, I think she has her way with Modafferi here. It already sounds like Modafferi has grown tired of the sport and while I expect she gives it her all, the physical strengths are no longer there. O’Neill will be hitting much harder when they are on the feet and controlling Modafferi completely when on the mat. This is a fight for O’Neill to showcase her skills and further prepare her for a climb up the rankings. Casey O’Neill by Round Three Submission
Nick: Roxanne Modafferi is a pioneer of women’s MMA and this fight will be her last before she retires. She lacks true athletic ability, but she’s made a career off her toughness and ability to learn and develop her skills from fight to fight. Casey O’Neill has trained at excellent camps in Tiger Muay Thai, Xtreme Couture and 10th Planet BJJ. She’s won each of her first three UFC matchups via finish and she’ll be looking to climb the rankings here with a win over the proven veteran. O’Neill’s striking is certainly far from refined, but she continues to show improvements in that facet of her game. Her most applaudable asset is her powerful wrestling base and her overall strength at 125 pounds. Modafferi does a good job using her size and strength to control position, but her offensive grappling leaves a lot to be desired. Even when she wins grappling exchanges, she doesn’t usually do enough damage to slow down her opponent. Additionally, I don’t expect her to have a strength advantage here against O’Neill. Roxanne is tough and will keep coming forward, but O’Neill has shown to be dangerous both in her grappling and on the feet. It wasn’t until recently that O’Neill began being taken seriously as a contender in this division, so this spot against Modafferi should serve as the perfect barometer for the trajectory of her career moving forward. Infinite respect to Roxanne for an outstanding career, but she’s being used as a steppingstone here. Casey O’Neill by Round Three KO

Andrei Arlovski -150 vs Jared Vanderaa +120

Anthony: The prelims close with a heavyweight tilt between Jared Vanderaa and Andrei Arlovski. Vanderaa seems to be getting a matchup with the former champion rather easily having gone just 1-2 in the UFC. Arlovski looks to be in excellent shape as always and even larger than his opponent here today. He is paid extremely well for every appearance in the octagon and really has not shown any signs of slowing down. I like that he still trains with the group at American Top Team continuing to improve his skills. The only loss that Arlovski suffered since 2020 came against top prospect Tom Aspinall. He’s incredibly active and usually fights smart, staying out of danger and winning the judge’s favor in five straight decisions. I feel confident betting on Arlovski here as he has proven to be more than just a gatekeeper. Vanderaa can perhaps match Arlovski’s volume early but that pace will be hard to sustain for a full fifteen. Andrei Arlovski by Decision
Nick: Arlovski is a shell of who he was when he reigned as UFC Heavyweight Champion back in 2005. He’s lost a lot of speed and power over the years, but he still has solid head movement and he generally does a good job circling away from his opponents and counter striking. He’s extended his career mostly leaning on his high fight IQ. He does an excellent job staying out of his opponents range and he does a good job finding openings to put damage on the back half of this division. Vanderaa throws looping shots and he leaves himself open to counters. He does a good job pushing a pace and he throws fairly high volume, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. Vanderaa does have decent wrestling ability for a heavyweight. He’ll be live for an upset here if he can lean on that part of his game, but I see Arlovski’s outstanding 78 percent takedown defense holding up in this bout. I expect he’ll keep this fight standing where he’ll be able to pick Vanderaa apart at range. Andrei Arlovski by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Bobby Green -145 vs Nasrat Haqparast +115

Anthony: The main card opens with a lightweight scrap between Nasrat Haqparast and King Bobby Green. Pay-per-view events have been relying on Bobby Green to deliver Fight of the Night performances and he had two killer fights that earned him bonus money last year. His boxing is extremely clean with great shoulder roll defense that keeps his opponent’s strikes from landing. Green is great at point fighting and great at exchanging when things get heated. He always looks very comfortable in the octagon. Haqparast is a great opponent that will be willing to stand and trade. He throws with high volume but also a lot of power generated from the southpaw stance. The judge’s hate Green and usually you’ll be sweating if the fight goes fifteen minutes, but I think he’s my pick to get the victory tonight. I would not recommend betting him much at these odds, but perhaps taking Green by decision prop against a durable opponent like Haqparast. Bobby Green by Decision
Nick: We have a fun matchup here to open the main card between two lightweight strikers that do their best work on the feet. Haqparast is a technical striker who puts on a nice pace and impressive volume. Green is a well-rounded fighter, but his shoulder-roll boxing style is what stands out when you watch him on film. I expect both guys to stand in the pocket and exchange. Neither really carries conventional KO power, but they both throw effective combinations. Green usually wins fights out striking his opponents at boxing range, but he often favors showmanship over effective game planning and Fight IQ. He’s an outstanding offensive boxer, but he tends to keep his hands down a lot more often than he should. Against a highly technical opponent like Haqparast, he’ll need to be careful here not to sacrifice his chin for entertainment. Haqparast is a bit less flashy in his approach, but once he gets going his technical ability is undeniable. I see this as a very close match-up, but my lean here is Green. Simply put, he has found more success against a higher level of competition. Haqparast may have the higher ceiling in terms of his career trajectory, but at this point Green still feels a level above. This is one where we likely need the scorecards. Bobby Green by Decision

Renato Moicano -175 vs Alexander Hernandez +140

Anthony: Next up is a fight between two exciting lightweights with Renato Moicano doing battle with Alexander Hernandez. Moicano looked a weight class bigger than Hernandez at faceoffs and completely declined the shake of hands. Anything can happen when these two are trading on the feet. Hernandez carries a lot of power in his straight punches and hooks. Moicano is rather underrated in his striking but he can certainly hold his own in technical exchanges. Moicano should also be a dominant force on the mat if able to get hold of Hernandez here. His past three wins have come by submission as Moicano is known to lock up chokes early in fights. His only losses have come to elite opponents at featherweight like The Korean Zombie, Brian Ortega and Jose Aldo. With him sitting as the slight favorite, a money line bet on Moicano may be my most confident pick for the evening. None of Hernandez’ UFC wins so far would be as impressive as this. Renato Moicano by Round Two Submission
Nick: Moicano is an advanced BJJ blackbelt. He has outstanding offensive grappling and he does a good job scrambling into favorable positions against a wide-range of opponents. His greatest strengths are definitely shown on the mat, but he is comfortable striking both in the clinch and in open space. Moicano secured an impressive submission victory over Jai Herbert when he last fought back in June. He’s faced many of the top fighters in this division and there’s really no denying he has an experience advantage in this match-up. Alexander Hernandez was once considered a future top contender. He’s a powerful striker who is fairly well-rounded, but lately he seems to wait for fights to come to him. He’s going to be outclassed if this fight hits the mat. His striking abilities are comparable to Moicano’s on the feet, but there’s no denying he’ll have a power advantage. While I certainly see Moicano as the more gifted and overall talented fighter, Moicano has been KO’d in each of his last three losses. Moicano’s suspect chin could prove to be a liability here. Regardless, he’s the rightful favorite in this spot. With wins over the likes of Calvin Kattar and Cub Swanson, he seems a level above where Hernandez is at this point of his career. Renato Moicano by Round Two Submission

Jared Cannonier -175 vs Derek Brunson +140

Anthony: Tonight’s featured bout is contested at middleweight as Jared Cannonier will face the streaking Derek Brunson. This fight could end up determining who will be next to face Israel Adesanya for the belt. Cannonier has gone 4-1 in his last five fights while Brunson has been flawless. The transition to 185 pounds has not hindered Cannonier’s power one bit as he has accrued three finishes in the division already. I’m certainly growing more nervous about backing Brunson as this bout approaches but if he’s able to fight with a tactical game plan I think he ends up getting his hand raised. Durability is a big issue for Brunson so closing the distance on Cannonier will be key. I would not be surprised to see Brunson get clipped and finished here, but I trust him to once again chase the takedown. Cannonier has not shown much in terms of defensive grappling but Brunson has been tearing through everyone on the mat, regardless of who is underneath him. Blonde Brunson feels like the sharp play when we are getting him as an underdog. Let’s hope his chin holds up for at least one more win. Derek Brunson by Decision
Nick: Many feel that the winner of this matchup will be in line for the next title shot at middleweight. This is a classic striker vs. grappler fight and a really tough one to predict given the vast discrepancy of strengths and styles. Cannonier’s greatest strength is certainly his powerful striking ability. As a former heavyweight, he has true KO power at 185 and if he can find a shot to land, he’s capable of putting anyone to sleep. Derek Brunson is a talented grappler with a powerful wrestling base. He’s found success since switching camps to Sanford MMA and he’s coming off five consecutive wins. Brunson averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes and I fully expect him to try to execute a similar game plan here. While this fight is a tough one to call, the paths to victory for each fighter are relatively clear. If Brunson can lean on his wrestling to control position and avoid spending too much time on the feet with Cannonier, he should win. On the other hand, if Cannonier can stuff Brunson’s takedowns or catch him with a powerful strike on an entry, he’ll be getting his hand raised. While I expect Brunson to secure a takedown or two early, Cannonier is strong and powerful enough that I expect he can work back to his feet. We’ve seen Brunson rocked by strikes in many of his previous fights. He seems to recover well, but Cannonier’s power is really unlike any he’s seen on this win streak. I see that power being the deciding factor. Jared Cannonier by Round Two KO

Derrick Lewis -190 vs Tai Tuivasa +150

Anthony: The co-main event is a banger at heavyweight as Tai Tuivasa takes on Derrick Lewis. This is a fight made for the fans as these two knockout artists are certainly primed to stand and trade punches. Lewis is fighting in front of his hometown of Houston here. I don’t think he holds back at all in a three-round bout, controlling the octagon and looking to close the distance fast. Lewis hits as hard as any heavyweight and has a slight advantage here in terms of size and reach. While Tuivasa has been on an impressive knockout streak of his own, a willingness to brawl could end up costing him here. Lewis proved in his last win over Chris Daukaus that he is still among the elite in this division. He’s a tough test for contenders moving up the rankings and I think Tuivasa, like Daukaus, is getting this opportunity a bit too soon. We likely see Tuivasa throw higher volume and land the more diverse strikes, but for Lewis it only takes one punch to change the bout’s outcome. I don’t think we see more than five minutes of action here. Derrick Lewis by Round One KO
Nick: We have an extremely fun heavyweight match-up here between two fan favorites. Lewis doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown, on several occasions, that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. He’s a true knockout artist with twenty-one of his twenty-six professional wins coming via KO. He’s coming off an impressive win over Chris Daukaus. A fight in which he seemed unphased by his opponents pressure, closed distance, and put him out via KO in round one. Tai Tuivasa is probably most known for his signature post-victory celebration “shoey” where he drinks a full beer out of a shoe thrown to him by a fan in the crowd. He has impressive speed for this division and like many other heavyweights, serious knockout power behind his strikes. His clearest path to victory is always via the knockout punch, but he continues to sharpen his technical abilities in all facets of his game. He is coming off the biggest win of his career, a knockout victory over Augusto Sakai. He showed a more measured approach in that fight, taking his time and letting Sakai make the mistake of exposing his chin. Thus, creating a window for Tuivasa to capitalize and score a KO with a barrage of well-placed punches. While there is always volatility for heavyweights given their general power, I see Lewis as the rightful favorite here. Both of these fighters have found success, but Lewis has found it against a much higher level of competition. Additionally, Tuivasa is the more likely of the two to come forward and engage here. This plays right into Lewis’ strengths. I see him finding that early knockout. Derrick Lewis by Round One KO

Israel Adesanya -290 vs Robert Whittaker +220

Anthony: The main event will decide the world middleweight champion as Israel Adesanya looks to beat Robert Whittaker for the second time. The champion has successfully defended his title three times since unifying the belt in 2019. Adesanya is quite clearly the best striker in the UFC currently and is likely going to be recognized as the best ever when it’s all said and done. He was able to dismantle Whittaker on the feet in their first fight, landing at a high clip and evading most of what was being thrown his way. While Whittaker is technically sound, he lacks the physical tools and striking variety needed to keep up with Adesanya at kickboxing range. His only path to victory in this fight will be reliant on offensive grappling. Adesanya was controlled on the mat by light heavyweight Jan Blachowicz sure, but Whittaker does not have the strength or wrestling technique necessary to ground him in a similar way. I expect Adesanya to keep a steady pace in this bout, landing clean whenever he can and keeping Whittaker at the end of his strikes. Damage will accumulate fast and I think things get bad for the challenger as we get into the later rounds. Whittaker certainly deserves credit for the three wins he put together while retaining his top contender spot. I certainly think Whittaker has the advantage over every other guy in this division too, but Adesanya is on another level entirely. This should be another convincing victory. In combat sports Adesanya has accrued over one hundred professional victories. He is gifted technically and oozing with confidence so although this will be his toughest test, it is one the champion should pass with flying colors. And still. Israel Adesanya by Round Two KO

Nick: This is a rematch of a fight that took place back in 2019 when Adesanya bested Whittaker to capture the title via second round KO. Adesanya has been defending the belt ever since that win, establishing himself as a star in the sport and a great champion at 185. In their first matchup, Whittaker admittedly let his emotions get the best of him. He became overaggressive and sacrificed his defense as a means to try to take Adesanya out early. Adesanya took advantage of Whittaker’s egregious approach, blasting him with counters and knocking him down twice before the fight was called. Adesanya is one of the best defensive strikers in the history of the sport. In most of his fights, we see Adesanya pick his opponents apart at range on the feet. He’s a gifted kickboxer with outstanding accuracy. He doesn’t carry massive power, but he relies on timely combinations to overwhelm his opponents and when he does he’s capable of finishing a fight inside the distance. Since that 2019 loss, Whittaker has strung together three impressive wins on his ascent back to the top of the division. He’s done an excellent job mixing in his grappling more often lately, which keeps his opponents guessing and makes him overall more difficult to read. At his best, Whittaker is cerebral defensively on the feet and does an excellent job circling away from his opponents. Additionally, he does an excellent job staying on the offensive even when he’s backing up. I also like that Whittaker has been leaning on his leg kicks a lot more lately. This will be a valuable weapon for him here as a means to keep Adesanya guessing in exchanges. Adesanya remains undefeated in this weight class, but he did drop a decision when he attempted to move up and capture Jan Blachowicz’s title at 205. Blachowicz did an excellent job using his jab in that fight, particularly when Adesanya would attempt to switch stances. He tired Adesanya out early in exchanges, and slowly began executing a more grappling focused approach as that fight wore on. Adesanya was taken down as many times in his last two fights as he was in all of his previous UFC bouts combined. The key for Whittaker will be keeping Adesanya grounded so that his greatest weapons will be neutralized. I expect a much more competitive fight this time around. Whittaker has the more well-rounded game. He should be good enough on the feet to stay competitive in exchanges, and I expect his grappling to prove the deciding factor in this matchup on his path back to gold. And new. Robert Whittaker by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_