In just under a month, the NFL’s free agency period will open and 32 teams will be vying to sign the hottest free agents on the market. With the NFL’s cap ceiling rising to $208.2 million, a $25 million increase from last season, teams have the room to make a splash in the hopes of building a Super Bowl contender. As talented as this year’s crop of free agents may be, they might provide more questions than answers.
The crown jewel of free agency this year is, without a doubt, Davante Adams. The Packers wide receiver has been arguably the games number one wide receiver for the last three years and, at 29 years old, is in line to make mega money. It’s rare that the real elites of the game ever make it to the open market. There’s probably only one true “elite” player on the market each year – if that.
It was Trent Williams in 2021, and Tom Brady in 2020. This year, it’s Adams. The two-time First Team All-Pro receiver is the can’t miss target for teams this year. He’ll likely produce elite numbers wherever he winds up, but signing Adams comes with a hefty price tag. If rumours are true, Adams wants something in the ballpark of $30million. In terms of production, there should be no doubts about Adams, however for cash strapped teams, he may be out of their price range.
Every free agent signing, especially the top tier ones, are relative gambles. However, the upper tier of free agents in 2022 are filled with question marks. Take two of the top three offensive linemen on the market: Brandon Scherff and Terron Armstead. At the peak of their powers, both are the elite of the elite – Scherff at guard and Armstead at tackle. Any team would be lucky to have them when they’re healthy.
The catch though is that both are now in their 30s and just can’t stay healthy. Scherff played just 697 snaps in 2021, while Armstead played just 467. Armstead has played in less than 14 games in six of his nine seasons, while never completing a full 16-game season. Scherff, however, has managed it twice, but hasn’t played more than 900 snaps since 2016. The mixture of advanced age plus inability to stay healthy is never a great combination, but Scherff and Armstead are still worth targeting – even if they only play 14 games apiece.
The high-end receiver market doesn’t have as many age-related questions as the offensive linemen, but there are still legitimate concerns with the free agent crop. Chris Godwin had a seat at the table as one of the 10 best wide receivers in the NFL before tearing his ACL in the closing weeks of the season. He’ll make a full recovery, but it’ll take time for him to get up to speed again and it remains to be seen if he’ll even possess the same explosiveness as he did pre-injury. If he does, he’ll make a wide receiver team very, very happy, but it won’t come without risk.
The same can be said about Odell Beckham, who was fully vindicated, winning a Super Bowl with the Rams after forcing his way out of the Browns following a messy breakup. Unfortunately, as hot as his Super Bowl started, it ended with him tearing his ACL for the second time in two years. Beckham was just starting to remind everyone of his talent. Now, he faces a tough rehabilitation while trying to navigate his way through free agency.
Michael Gallup finds himself in the same boat as Godwin and Beckham following a torn ACL in Week 17. Like Godwin and Beckham, he’ll command some attention in free agency, but a long-term deal might not be a guarantee.
Injury and age related concerns aren’t just confined to the offensive talent in free agency. The top two pass rushers in free agency are Von Miller and Chandler Jones. The former had a strong second half of the season after being traded from the Broncos to the Rams – and his postseason performance was a clear reminder that Miller is still one of the league’s premier pass rushers.
But both players are in their 30s now. Miller will be 33 once the 2022 season is underway and Jones will be 32. A decline is inevitable, but it’s just a matter of when. Any team on the lookout for elite pass rushers have to decide if they’ll take the risk.
Every player named here is an incredible talent and would immediately make any team better in the right situation. The right situation isn’t always the current situation, though. And any long-term financial commitment could have major repercussions. It happens every year, especially at the upper ends of the market.
The majority of players could prove to be the answer for what a team is looking for in free agency, but there’s some considerable baggage involved and it could leave teams with more questions than answers while on the hunt for their next acquisition.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @ThomasValenfine