As we head into Week 14 of the NFL season, the playoff picture is just as jumbled as it was a few weeks ago. With everyone in the AFC now with at least 4 losses, and numerous NFC teams sporting losing records still in the thick of things, who will represent each conference in the Super Bowl is anyone’s guess at this point.
That being said, we’re now starting to see some trends emerge. And while the 2021 season is the poster child for how anyone could win on any given Sunday, you can at least start sorting teams into tiers with some degree of confidence at this point. While you could argue some of these teams need to get bumped up or down a spot or two, most would agree with the following groups heading into the latest slate of NFL action:
Super Bowl Contenders
No one would be surprised to see any of the following teams make the Super Bowl this year. While they’ve had some bumps in the road along the way, overall they’ve been fairly consistent this season, beating the teams they were supposed to and avoiding any truly lopsided scores (save for Green Bay in Week 1).
The Cardinals getting Murray back is huge, as he adds an element to their offense not present with Colt McCoy under centre. The Packers should cruise to an NFC North title at this point, while the Patriots won one of the ugliest games in recent memory last week. KC seems to have righted the ship and Tampa is still one of the deepest teams from top to bottom in either conference.
1. Arizona Cardinals (10-2)
2. Green Bay Packers (9-3)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)
4. New England Patriots (9-4)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
Could Make Some Postseason Noise
Barring any late season collapses down the stretch, these teams are looking like potential playoff teams at this point. Buffalo has what many are calling a “must win” game against the Patriots coming up, as back to back losses to their rivals seals their fate as a wildcard team at best. LA took out a couple weeks worth of frustration on the hapless Jaguars last week to get back in the win column, but still look to be far from a finished product.
Dallas may have thrown it into neutral a little too soon as they suddenly find Washington and Philadelphia breathing down their necks in the NFC East, while Indy looks to ride a strong running game into the postseason. The Ravens made one of the more questionable decisions of the year electing to go for 2 against the Steelers rather than kick the game tying extra point, while the Titans are just trying to hold on in the AFC South until Derrick Henry is cleared to return. Finally the Chargers and Bengals seem to be alternating turns for who puts up a dominating performance and who lays an egg each week.
6. Los Angeles Rams (8-4)
7. Buffalo Bills (7-5)
8. Dallas Cowboys (8-4)
9. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
10. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
11. Los Angeles Chargers (7-5)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)
13. Tennessee Titans (8-4)
Which Version Are We Getting?
Some of these teams were projected division winners in the preseason and have massively underachieved (Cleveland and San Francisco), while others were written off entirely (Miami and WFT post-Fitzmagic injury) but find themselves back in the playoff mix. What all these teams have in common is inconsistent play, and mounting injury reports.
Which version we get from week to week usually varies greatly, and more often than not is dependent on how many pages deep their injury updates run. It wouldn’t be shocking to see any of these teams reach the postseason but in the same breadth no one would bat an eye if any of them missed out on a wildcard spot either.
14. San Francisco 49ers (6-6)
15. Cleveland Browns (6-6)
16. Miami Dolphins (6-7)
17. Denver Broncos (6-6)
18. Washington Football Team (6-6)
19. Las Vegas Raiders (6-6)
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1)
21. Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)
Underperformers
The Vikings could easily be 8-4 this season if not for their historically bad ends to the first and second halves this year. New Orleans tried to ride their defense to victory after Winston went down, but when Taysom Hill (who is looking more like Peyton Hillis with a better arm by the day) keeps going 3 and out on offense, there’s only so much you can expect.
Atlanta, Carolina and Seattle have to take some long hard looks in the mirror this offseason. The Panthers made a series of trades to try to launch themselves into “contender” status which backfired, Atlanta lacks an identity on either side of the ball, and Seattle’s years of trading away high draft picks have finally caught up with them meaning they just look old on the field. Meanwhile Chicago should be focused on one thing and one thing only at this point: Get Justin Fields healthy. Then worry about firing Nagy & Co. in the offseason.
22. Minnesota Vikings (5-7)
23. New Orleans Saints (5-7)
24. Atlanta Falcons (5-7)
25. Carolina Panthers (5-7)
26. Seattle Seahawks (4-8)
27. Chicago Bears (4-8)
Lost Causes
“With the first pick in the 2022 NFL Draft…” One of these teams will be making that selection and it’s not particularly close. Don’t be surprised if the Giants gut their front office this offseason, while their roommates at the Meadowlands look to surround Wilson & Moore with some more high end talent.
Jacksonville is the biggest question mark in all of football right now. Is Urban Meyer trying to get himself fired? Or does he genuinely believe that the decisions he’s made and bridges he’s burned so far this season will serve this team well moving forward? Who knows, but with that Lions win they’re suddenly in the mix for back to back 1st overall selections. The Lions get bumped up a spot if only for finally earning Dan Campbell his first win. And the Houston Texans claim the dubious distinction of #32 overall owing to the fact that they have 0 players who look like they’re “locks” to be on the roster for opening day next year.
28. New York Giants (4-8)
29. New York Jets (3-9)
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
31. Detroit Lions (1-10-1)
32. Houston Texans (2-10)
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @JKyleSkinner