In many fantasy football leagues, the playoffs officially kick off this week. Much like March Madness, it’s win or go home, which can sometimes lead to some shocking upsets. All it takes is one untimely injury, or a poor performance from your star player and you could be on the wrong side of the ledger when the points are tallied up at week’s end.
As much as many of us would love to give an Al Pacino “Any Given Sunday-esque” motivational speech to your players before taking the field, there’s only so much you can do with a laptop from the comfort of your own home. So in an attempt to avoid any upsets (or possibly pull one off yourself if you limped into the postseason), here are the top 3 things you can tinker with to put your fantasy squad in the best position to succeed in the playoffs.
Don’t Overlook Defense:
Defense wins championships right? While that might not hold quite as true in fantasy football, a strong performance from your DEF slot (or IDP if your league rosters that spot) can certainly help. For example, did you start KC (25pts), DAL (23pts), or TEN (21pts) last week? If so you probably outscored your opponent in that category by a hefty margin. Conversely if you started DET (-3pts), NYG (-2pts), HOU (-1pt), or LV (-1pt) you were actually better off not even dressing a player for week 14.
While the DEF position usually has a ceiling of about 25pts that you can expect on the best of days, the difference between starting KC’s DEF or Tampa Bay’s (one of the league’s best all season long) last week would have been a 20pt swing for the Chiefs. That’s essentially the difference in Justin Jefferson’s entire Week 14 output coming from a non-premium position on your team.
Below is the remaining strength of schedule for teams for the final 4 weeks of the season. Pay attention to matchups, and if you’re someone who earned a first round bye, use that to your advantage. While everyone else is focused on Week 15, go out and pick up your Week 16 defense NOW so you don’t have to fight people on the waiver wire when the time rolls around.
| Team | Remaining Opponent’s Winning % |
| Carolina | .635 |
| Pittsburgh | .635 |
| Baltimore | .625 |
| Detroit | .596 |
| Cincinnati | .596 |
| Denver | .577 |
| Cleveland | .567 |
| Las Vegas | .558 |
| Kansas City | .548 |
| Miami | .519 |
| Minnesota | .519 |
| New Orleans | .519 |
| Indianapolis | .519 |
| Houston | .500 |
| San Francisco | .500 |
| Dallas | .500 |
| Los Angeles Rams | .500 |
| New York Jets | .481 |
| New York Giants | .481 |
| Philadelphia | .481 |
| Washington | .481 |
| Seattle | .471 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | .462 |
| Buffalo | .442 |
| Green Bay | .433 |
| Arizona | .433 |
| New England | .423 |
| Atlanta | .413 |
| Tennessee | .413 |
| Jacksonville | .404 |
| Chicago | .404 |
| Tampa Bay | .365 |
Does the above mean that you should rush out to grab the Jacksonville DEF because they have the 3rd easiest schedule remaining? God no. But it should inform your decision if you’re choosing between say a Saints or Titans defense for the home stretch.
Matchups Matter:
There are some players who are matchup proof and you’re rolling them out come hell or high water (Mahomes, Taylor, Kupp for example). Others however require some deep thought as to whether you suit them up or call someone else’s number from your bench. In cases like these it’s important to consider the opponent they’ll be lined up against.
Take James Robinson and Josh Jacobs for example. Unless you’re in an extremely deep league, neither would necessarily be considered “locks” to dress this week. They’re currently coming in as the number 70 and number 72 ranked players in Yahoo leagues at the moment, so there’s a razor thin margin between the two. Based on recent play you’d think that the obvious answer would be to pick Jacobs right? Afterall, he’s in a somewhat competent offense in Las Vegas, and Urban Meyer seems to be either trying to get himself fired or is fully embracing the tank in Jacksonville.
But given the choice between rushing against Houston Texans sieve-like defense or the Cleveland Browns fearsome front seven, suddenly you’ve got a decision to make. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire of late with only 1 passing TD in his last 6 games combined, and the weather forecast currently calls for a 65% chance of showers in Jacksonville. That coupled with the fact that if Meyer does actually want to keep his job, this suddenly looks like a “must win” against the lowly Texans and you could see Robinson getting back to his 2020 self this weekend.
So while you could roll the dice with Jacobs against Garrett, Jackson, McDowell, and Clowney on the road, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to play the odds and assume that Houston will continue to have plenty of 3 and outs, and provide little opposition defensively against Robinson.
Take No Prisoners:
You’re likely 2-3 wins away from a championship at this point of the season. Which means you don’t need to worry about what everyone else in your league is doing. You only need to focus on your remaining opponents.
Does your week 15 matchup have some key players in COVID protocol? Is their running back sporting a questionable tag throughout the week? Take advantage of that. All’s fair in love, war, and fantasy football. Go out there and pick up their handcuff off the waiver wire. Not sure if Elijah Mitchell will start? Grab Hasty and Wilson just to stick it to them.
Hell, you don’t even have to start the players you pick up off waivers. There’s nothing more demoralizing than realizing that not only is someone you counted on playing not suiting up, but that your opponent has them on their bench. If you can lower the ceiling for how many points your opponent can put up in a given week, that’s just as effective as putting up more points yourself. To borrow another overused sports cliche “sometimes the best offense is a good defense”.
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @JKyleSkinner