Following Tom Brady’s departure from the Patriots organization, Belichick and Co. made a series of moves in 2020 to maximize their flexibility for the 2021 season. And boy did they ever make use of that cap space this week.
After signing former Chargers’ Tight End Hunter Henry to a $37.5M contract, the Patriots sat at a whopping $137.5M in guaranteed money this free agency period alone (good for second all time). Yet Belichick has never been one to be content with second place. Which is why, with money still available, it’s almost inevitable that New England will set the all time single free agency period record for guaranteed money by week’s end.
The Pats made it a staple of the “Patriots Way” for over 20 years not to overspend on free agents, often letting homegrown favourites walk rather than inking them to market value deals. Ty Law, Mike Vrabel, Lawyer Milloy and Deion Branch are just some of the long list of exPats to be either cut or traded in order to maximize roster flexibility in the past. Yet in 2021, New England has bucked this trend and actually hopped in the driver’s seat, essentially setting the market for the free agent class this year.
As of this writing, the Patriots have inked the following players to long term deals:
C – Ted Karras
TE – Hunter Henry
DL – Henry Anderson
WR – Kendrick Bourne
WR – Nelson Agholor
LB – Matt Judon
DB – Jalen Mills
DT – Davon Godchaux
TE – Jonnu Smith
OT – Trent Brown (acquired via trade with Raiders)
They’ve also re-signed Defensive Linemen Carl Davis & Deatrich Wise Jr., brought back Cam Newton, and DB’s Justin Bethel & JC Jackson (2nd round RFA tendered). Not to mention, they’re reportedly adding several players who opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID concerns (Hightower, Chung etc.). Add all that up and you’ve got a near complete roster overhaul from the wildly inefficient team that took the field last year.
It does beg the question however, what triggered this abrupt change in Belichick-ian philosophy? Some will point to the fact that with Bill and Brady’s legacies being inextricably linked for so long, seeing Tom immediately win a Super Bowl in Tampa added fuel to Bill’s desire to show he’s still at the top of his game as well. Others will say that after losing Brady this was the plan all along. Position themselves to survive a weird 2020 season, and maximize financial flexibility in 2021 in a year where the salary cap was sure to come down. Then while other teams have to shed money or contracts, reshape your team how you want it by signing every free agent with a pulse on Day 1.
Whether you’re a subscriber to the theory that Belichick is playing chess while the rest of the league is playing checkers or not, the answer is perhaps much simpler. Bad teams don’t become good by making 1 or 2 moves. And by nearly any metric you measure them by, the Patriots were a bad team in 2020. As such, you either make drastic changes and retool on the fly, or you tear it down to the studs and build through the draft. With Bill set to turn 69 years old this year, it’s obvious which option he was going to advocate for.
So was seeing Tom lift Lombardi trophy number 7 the straw that broke the camel’s back? Or were the Patriots simply exploiting a market inefficiency that few other teams could? There’s arguments to be made for both sides. But for the Patriots to toss aside the process that earned them 6 Super Bowl championships (signing unheralded free agents to below market deals) makes you wonder whether they’re overpaying free agents now because they need to (i.e. players aren’t taking pay cuts to go to NE to play with Tom Brady anymore) or simply because they have the financial ability to do so?
The results will be worth monitoring throughout the year, not just from a football standpoint, but from a sports management perspective as well. With quants, and advanced analytics becoming more and more prominent in every major sports league in the world, will Belichick’s decision to push his chips to the middle of the table and eschew his traditional financial responsibility pay off? Undoubtedly some of these contracts will look like steals, while others will be akin to setting money on fire. But in the world of NFL football, where cuts can come at any time, going on a spending spree doesn’t tend to have the same long term ramifications as other sports. None of these recent signees will still be getting paid out until 2035 like Bobby Bonilla is in the MLB.
Whatever the rationale for the financial windfall, it’s certainly gotten a lot of disgruntled Patriots fans back on board the New England express this week. With several big name free agents still available (and NE still with cap space to spare) the Patriots likely aren’t done spending yet either. Rumours are swirling that the Pats could be in the market for a running back and may be kicking the tires on Chris Carson. Then there’s the even bigger possibility of this team being built with the goal of ultimately reuniting 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo with the Foxborough Faithful this season or next as well.
Then there’s still the NFL draft which is a little over a month away. With New England holding a top 15 pick for the first time since 2008, they could be adding yet another impact player to their 2021 roster as well. For a team that is used to shedding salary at this point of the season each year, this 1 year rebuild could go down as one of the quickest turnarounds in recent sports history.
Needless to say, a lot is riding on the 2021 season in New England. If these signings pay off, then everyone in the front office looks like a genius. If they don’t then blame is going to fall squarely on the man at the helm of it all, Bill Belichick. Given his age, Bill is likely in his last 3 years or so of coaching even if he goes out and strings together a series of Super Bowl victories. But if this gamble doesn’t pay off, and the Pats are on the outside looking in come playoff time again, Bill could feel his seat getting a little warmer than he has in a long time.
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @dynessports