This weekend will mark a year to the day that the UFC last had a capacity arena full of fans watching their fights. Israel Adesanya headlined that event back at UFC 248 (March 7th 2020) and will do the same this weekend as he moves up to light heavyweight to take on Jan Blachowicz in an attempt to become the organization’s 5th fighter to simultaneously hold two championship belts. While UFC 259’s 3 title fights has generated a significant amount of buzz in the fight community, beyond this weekend the upcoming fight cards leave much to be desired.
Undoubtedly the UFC can always count on a devoted following who will watch their product no matter who they trot out to the ring. But at the end of the day, the UFC is a business whose goal is to turn as much of a profit as humanly possible. To that end, it bears exploring the ramifications of the lack of star power on the upcoming cards to the dreaded “C word” amongst UFC fans, casuals.
Long gone are the days of Liddell, Couture, St-Pierre, and Silva whose multi-industry appeal made them recognizable stars beyond the confines of the octagon. With cameos in Hollywood films, HBO series like “Ballers” or “Entourage”, and even cross promotional intrigue from the likes of the polarizing Brock Lesnar, UFC fighters were suddenly becoming household names.
The rating system commonly referred to as a “Q-score”, which is used to measure the familiarity of a brand, company, or public figure amongst the general population is paramount amongst marketing and advertising agencies. Many would argue that the UFC’s Q-score was never higher than it was during the period from November 2008 to October 2018.
During this period, UFC events were dominated by a steady dose of St-Pierre et. al. in the first half, and Conor McGregor in the later years. Liddell meanwhile was leading the charge outside of the ring appearing in any sitcom or late night talk show his agent could book him. Not surprisingly, the combination of mainstream juice, and brand name stars headlining events lead to some of the most profitable years on record for the UFC.
As a result, the most purchased PPV cards in company history all coincided with this timeframe (1. Khabib v. McGregor, 2. Diaz v. McGregor 2, 3. Diaz v. McGregor, 4. Lesnar v. Mir, 5. Alvarez v. McGregor), as well as the largest gates for events (1. Alvarez v. McGregor, 2. Khabib v. McGregor, 3. St-Pierre v. Shields). Looking at that list it becomes apparent why Dana is so accommodating to Conor whenever he wants to set up a fight.
But if we dive into the numbers, of every UFC PPV event that has taken place in the history of the sport outside of the time range above, only 3 events have eclipsed the 1M PPV purchase threshold. Usman v. Masvidal in 2020, and no shocker here, Conor’s last two fights. Put another way, Usman v. Masvidal is the only PPV that’s topped 1M purchases not featuring McGregor since 2016.
Therein lies the dilemma the UFC seems to be facing. With fewer recognizable stars, and no gate revenue to rely on for the foreseeable future, the casual viewer is shifting their focus to other outlets. The sport’s stable of bankable headliners isn’t what it used to be due to retirement, and the lack of fresh faces stepping in and dominating headlines like they did in the UFC’s heyday. Outside of Adesanya, Amanda Nunes, and Conor McGregor, there isn’t much “brand recognition” outside of the dedicated fight community, and the numbers reflect that.
Don’t get me wrong, the UFC has come a long way from the days where they were only pulling 35-45k PPV purchases per title fight. The sport can and will survive even if it never hits the heights of 2008-2018 again. And some fans may even prefer it that way. Weed out the casuals and keep the sport to the “hardcore fan”. That’s all well and good for the time being, but when you’re thinking big picture in terms of the business side of sports, it’s a recipe for disaster. The perfect analogy would be the position the NHL finds itself in currently.
Throughout the 80’s and early 90’s, the NHL was a top 3 sport in North America in terms of viewership. The NFL was (and likely always will be) number 1, and the number 2 spot was a closely contested race between the MLB and the NHL. Unfortunately, this wave of success was to be short lived. Attempts to attract “casual fans” like more afternoon games, and the infamous glowing puck on broadcasts were met with ridicule from the “hardcore” hockey community and were quickly scrapped. This coupled with some poor television deals negotiated on the league’s behalf (resulting in regional blackouts), and the rise of the enforcer/staged fights in the game turned many away from the sport.
Gone were the days of Gretzky hosting Saturday Night Live, or Cam Neely having cameos in Hollywood blockbusters like “Dumb and Dumber”. Suddenly the Q-score for the league and athletes alike began to plummet. Since its inception, the NHL had outpaced the NBA in ratings, endorsement deals, player salaries and franchise values. Infact up until the 1996-97 season you could still post an expansion fee of $32.5M and be awarded an NBA team (as was the case with the Minnesota Timberwolves). Meanwhile the Nashville Predators had to post an expansion bond of $80M in 1998.
That would change by the turn of the century though. In 1999 the Raptors and Grizzlies were awarded franchises at expansion fees of $125M and the NBA never looked back. Now the average NBA franchise value, player salary, TV deal, and endorsements all dwarf that of the NHL (conspiracy theorists will point to the fact that former NBA aid Gary Bettman was appointed commissioner of the NHL in 1993 due in large part to David Stern’s recommendations as the turning point for the two leagues, but that’s a story for another day).
All of that to say, the lack of starpower the UFC currently has on it’s roster may not be an issue in the immediate future, but is certainly one that could have long term repercussions if not rectified in the years to come.
Another point that some have brought up, is the lack of North American champions the sport currently has at its disposal. Outside of Stipe Miocic, every other belt holder calls a different nation home. This is great for the sport internationally, unfortunately that international popularity often doesn’t translate to PPV purchases, or gate revenue. For a sport that was used to having an American hold just about every belt with a few Brazilians sprinkled in for good measure, this is uncharted territory. Not only that, but counted amongst current champions and contenders is an array of BIPOC and LGBTQ+ individuals, communities that haven’t had a tremendous track record with fans or even fighters within the sport in the past. Former champion Tyron Woodley has called out UFC President Dana White in the past about him not being marketed properly and wondered openly whether the color of his skin had anything to do with it.
Whatever the reason for the recent downtick in UFC interest, the organization finds itself at a crossroad with regards to its future. Where it goes from here is anyone’s guess, but the cautionary tales are out there, should they choose to heed the warnings. Will they go the way of the NHL to become a viable entity but lose a swath of fans and revenue along the way? Or will they take the opportunity to take stock and rebrand themselves similar to what the NBA did in the early 2000’s?
The opportunities are there. With deals with ESPN (aka Disney) in place, it would make financial sense to leverage the sport back into the mainstream consciousness in the coming months again. Putting the full marketing force of Walt Disney, ESPN, and the UFC behind a new crop of fighters could do wonders to attract new fans to the sport. Then again Dana White has always marched to the beat of his own drum and may have different plans for how he chooses to attack 2021 and beyond. However he plays his hand, the stakes have certainly been raised for the next 5+ years of UFC action.
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @dynessports