Happy Saturday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (8/27) MLB slate. The weather is still hot, and there’s still plenty of clear value across the board as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 2-1 record last time out, so we improved to a 40-38 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance that I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Friday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s continue to build momentum tonight as we work through these dog days of summer.
Season Record: (40-38)
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 7.5 Runs (-145)
Paolo Espino comes into this start with a 5.04 xFIP. He has allowed 3+ ER in four of his last five starts. The Reds offense hasn’t been great this season, but they have scored 5+ Runs in three of their last four games played.
Luis Cessa comes in with a 4.91 xFIP, allowing a .235 ISO to RHH. He’s likely only serving as an opener here, and the Reds bullpen ranks 30th in the MLB this season with an ugly 4.86 ERA. This Nationals offense obviously lost a lot of pop at the trade deadline, but guys like Nelson Cruz, Luke Voit, and Joey Meneses are still major power threats in favorable match-ups. On paper neither of these offenses are all that exciting, but I’m seeing value on the Game Total Over 7.5 Runs here at a reasonable price of just -145.
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers @ 7:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 7.5 Runs (-110)
Eduardo Rodriguez looked decent his last time out, but he comes into this start with a 5.24 xFIP on the season. He’s allowing a brutal .333 ISO to LHH and he’ll be facing a Rangers offense here that has a better than .210 ISO against LHP this season.
Dallas Keuchel will be taking the mound for the Rangers here. He comes into this start with a 5.37 xFIP, allowing a .253 ISO to RHH. He’s already been cut by multiple teams this season, so it’s a bit surprising to see him getting another chance here. While neither of these offenses are very intimidating, I don’t have much faith in either of these Starting Pitchers. I’m surprised the game total is set at just 7.5 Runs. I’ll happily back the over at a price of just -110.
New York Yankees @ Oakland Athletics @ 9:07 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-135)
Adam Oller comes into this match-up as one of the worst SPs in baseball. He’s carrying a terrible 6.81 xFIP, allowing a worse than .250 ISO to both RHH and LHH. He has a terrible 9% Swinging Strike Rate, he’s allowing near 40% Hard Contact and he’s allowed at least 3 ER in each of his last three Home starts.
Oller will be taking on a potent Yankees offense that has recently returned to form. They lead the AL this season with a .758 OPS and 637 Runs scored. They have an MLB best 200 HRs, and with Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo recently returning from the IL they should continue to put up numbers. I’m really liking the Over on the Yankees Team Total here, set at just 4.5 and an affordable price of just -135.