Cubs’ Starter Not Expected to Return This Year
Another forgettable performance has likely signalled the end for right-hander Kyle Hendricks.
The Chicago Cubs hurler hasn’t pitched since July 5 due to a strained right shoulder and likely won’t return this season. Hendricks spoke to reporters following Sunday’s 5-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, saying he’s focused on being ready for the 2023 campaign.
He plans to resume baseball activities at the team’s training complex in Arizona later this week. Barring any further setbacks, this throwing program should allow him to enjoy a normal and healthy off-season.
Hoping to gain clarity on his injury, Hendricks underwent an MRI earlier this month, which didn’t reveal any structural damage to his shoulder. But with a month and a half remaining in the season, there simply isn’t enough time left for a potential 2022 return.
As it stands, Hendricks will finish this season with a disappointing 4.80 ERA across 16 starts and 84.1 innings. The 32-year-old also posted career-worsts in xERA (5.02) and fWAR (0.3).
The 6-foot-3 righty has now put together consecutive poor performances since 2021. Last season, he registered a 4.77 ERA, a 4.95 xERA and a 1.2 fWAR rating in 181.0 innings over 32 starts. That appeared to be the start of his current decline.
Hendricks, who was once very effective at limiting free passes, has seen his walk rate subtly increase over the last two seasons. After producing a career-best 2.5 percent clip in 2020, it climbed to 5.6 percent in ‘21 and 6.7 percent in ‘22.
Chicago’s long-time starter has also allowed significantly more hard contact than compared to his prime years with the franchise. From 2015-20, he featured a 29.5 percent hard-hit rate against and a 4.1 percent barrel rate against. Those percentages have risen to 34.8 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively, since ‘21.
The 2016 World Series champion, who was an NL Cy Young finalist during that same season, will be entering the final year of his four-year, $55.5-million contract in ‘23. He’ll earn $14 million in his 10th – and potential final – campaign with the Cubs.
Hendricks’ deal includes a $16 million club option for 2024, carrying a $1.5 million buyout. Given his poor results and recent injury history, however, it’s unlikely that his option gets exercised.
If he performs well next season, though, the former eighth-round selection from 2011 likely won’t struggle to find his next contract. At 32, turning 33 this winter, he could still provide value as a back-end starter moving forward.
Staying healthy needs to be Hendricks’ main priority as he attempts to bounce back from his injury-shortened 2022 campaign. It’ll be crucial for him to return next spring at 100 percent, allowing him to hit the ground running.
Needless to say, the 2023 season will be pivotal for Hendricks as it’ll likely determine the next chapter of his major-league career.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: Arturo Pardavilla III. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.