Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (8/12) MLB slate. The weather is still heating up, and there’s a lot of clear value across the board as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 1-2 record last time out, so we fell to a 35-34 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance that I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Friday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s continue to build momentum tonight as we work through these dog days of summer.
Season Record: (35-34)
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Houston Astros, Team Total, Over 5.5 Runs (-105)
Adam Oller has been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. He comes into this start with a comically poor 7.15 xFIP. He allowed 4 ER in back-to-back starts and he’s carrying a brutal 8.59 Home ERA across 5 appearances.
The Astros projected starting lineup has a solid .190 ISO against RHP this season. They’ve scored the third most runs in baseball since the All Star Break with 101, so I’m more than comfortable backing the over on their 5.5 Run team total here at a favorable price of -105. It’s also encouraging that the A’s have the 3rd worst bullpen ERA in the AL this season with an uninspiring 4.06.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies @ 8:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 12.5 Runs (-105)
Zach Davies comes into this start with a 5.05 xFIP, having allowed 4 ER in back to back Road starts. He looked good against these Rockies his last time out in Arizona, but his Road ERA (4.96) is more than 1.6 points higher than his ERA at Home (3.26). Coors Field is always a tough spot for opposing pitchers, and this Rockies offense is heating up with a combined 29 Runs scored over their last three games played.
Antonio Senzatela comes into this start with a shaky 4.60 xFIP, allowing a worse than .370 wOBA to both RHH and LHH in 2022. The Diamondbacks have scored a combined 19 Runs over their last three games played.
The game total of 12.5 Runs here is the highest on the slate, but we’re dealing with two mediocre arms in Coors and two terrible bullpens against offenses that seem to be in solid form. I’ll be backing the over on the total here at a reasonable price of -105.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants @ 10:15 EST
Nick’s Pick: San Francisco Giants, -1.5 Run Line (-115)
Bryse Wilson comes into this start with a spotty 5.06 FIP, a shaky 1.64 HR/9 as well as an ugly 1.52 WHIP this season. He’s also allowing worse than 44% Hard Contact, and he averaged a lower velocity in his last outing than he had posted in his previous nine. The Pirates bullpen carries the third worst bullpen ERA in the NL this season with a shaky 4.54. The Giants offense is just outside the Top-10 in MLB ISO with a .158, and I expect they can put up runs here in a favorable match-up at home.
The Pirates are tied with the Athletics for the second worst BA against LHP this season with a terrible .219. They have just a .280 OBP against lefties in 2022 and they’ll be facing one of the best in baseball here as they square up against Carlos Rodon. Rodon comes into this start with an excellent 3.11 xFIP as well as a very solid 11.29 K/9. He’s boasting an excellent 1.07 WHIP this season, as well as an exceptional 1.76 Home ERA. I usually don’t like backing Home teams on the -1.5 Run Line, but the Giants are impossible to ignore here at an excellent price of just -115.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS