Will Brewers’ Decision to Trade Josh Hader Derail Playoff Hopes?
Have you ever wondered if a critical decision in your life would come back to haunt you? Well, that’s the current dilemma the Milwaukee Brewers are facing.
Earlier this week, the front office shocked the baseball world when they traded one of the best closers in the sport, Josh Hader. As a result, many people who follow the franchise questioned the decision to move the 28-year-old, who’s been sensational his entire career.
Hader, who leads all relievers in saves (113) since 2019, is one of the reasons Milwaukee has made the playoffs in four straight seasons. Yet, that couldn’t save him from becoming expendable. At least in the front offices’ eyes.
The Brewers ultimately traded Hader for one reason: money. The left-handed hurler is making $11 million this season and will enter his final year of arbitration in 2023, where he’s likely to command around $15 million. He’s also eligible for free agency after next season.
Since Milwaukee isn’t a large market, they simply couldn’t afford to keep the dominant lefty beyond the 2022 campaign, meaning it was time to maximize his current trade value.
In the end, the San Diego Padres acquired Hader for a package of LHP Taylor Rogers, RHP Dinelson Lamet, 2B Esteury Ruiz and LHP Robert Gasser. What’s worse, though, is the club has already lost Lamet to the Colorado Rockies via waivers, ending his tenure before it even began.
As you’d expect, trading Hader wasn’t received well inside Milwaukee’s clubhouse, particularly among the relief group. Devin Williams, who’s now the closer, certainly didn’t expect his now-ex teammate to change teams mid-season.
With a talented reliever like Williams at their disposal, it made it easier for the Brewers to move on from Hader, believing they already possessed a suitable replacement. And they weren’t wrong in thinking that way.
The 27-year-old appears ready to tackle this new challenge, as he’s posted a 1.77 ERA with a career-high six saves across 40.2 innings this season. He also owns a 29.0 percent difference between his strikeout and walk rates, which is the second-highest of his career.
Williams can become Milwaukee’s next reliable closer and has proven that throughout his four major-league seasons. But management may have mistaken not valuing its roster’s chemistry as much as it should have.
Constructing a talented group of players is crucial, however, the atmosphere within the room can be just as important. When you discover the correct balance, it’s vital not to disrupt that flow, although some believe other factors – like money – mean more.
The Brewers decided it made more sense for their organization to trade Hader on August 1st rather than during the off-season. That’s a decision their fanbase likely won’t forget any time soon, especially if they miss the playoffs.
Granted, general manager Matt Arnold did add to his bullpen at the trade deadline, acquiring right-hander Matt Bush along with Rogers. Both relievers should help fill the void in high-leverage situations. Though, the post-Hader era isn’t off to a strong start.
Adding to their fans’ misery, the Brewers have lost 5 of 6 games since trading their all-star closer, which also saw them get swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates. It doesn’t get much worse than that, or perhaps it does.
One of those losses saw Williams surrender a game-winning home run off the bat of Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds in the ninth inning, serving as his first run allowed since May 10.
The following night didn’t end positively for Milwaukee, either. In the 10th inning, Bush squandered a one-run lead by allowing a pair of runs, including a game-ending wild pitch that led to Reynolds scoring the winning run for a second-consecutive contest.
Blowing late-game situations could become a recurring theme as the Brewers’ bullpen moves forward without Hader. Rogers currently leads the majors in blown saves (seven) this season and is prone to losing his command at times.
There’s also no guarantee that Williams will be as effective as he’s been previously. He’s a professional athlete but losing one of his closest teammates has already had a massive impact. That shock could leave a lasting impression the rest of the way.
The 6’2” right-hander probably isn’t the only player upset over Hader’s departure. The rest of the team likely is, too. And with this franchise aiming for a deep postseason run, this recent development could end up being disastrous.
Amid Milwaukee’s four-game losing streak, the St. Louis Cardinals have travelled in the opposite direction, winning four straight contests. In doing so, they’ve now built a 2 game lead over Milwaukee in the NL Central Division.
So, as the final two months of the regular season commence, the Brewers and Cardinals appear destined for a tight battle, with the winner receiving the NL Central crown. Whoever loses, however, could potentially miss the playoffs altogether.
The Atlanta Braves and Padres appear to be locks for the first two wild-card seeds, leaving the third one up for grabs. That final spot will almost certainly be awarded to one of the Brewers, Cardinals or Philadelphia Phillies, who are all tightly bunched together in the standings.
Amongst this trio, Philadelphia possesses the easiest remaining strength of schedule (.494), according to FanGraphs. Milwaukee, meanwhile, holds the second-easiest (.488), with St. Louis having the third-easiest (.476).
It seems the Brewers have a slight edge over the Cardinals regarding their future opponents. That being said, upsets can happen, just as the Pirates proved earlier this week.
If Milwaukee’s roster can’t put this current slide behind them, they could play themselves out of the playoff race very quickly, marking yet another lost season for the Brew Crew.
While the Hader trade seemed inevitable for many reasons, perhaps the impact it had on the team would’ve been less severe if he was dealt in the offseason. Instead, everyone’s now forced to put their feelings aside and carry on down the stretch.
Hopefully, this decision doesn’t cost the Brewers and its fans a chance to compete in October and beyoand. But it’s difficult not to imagine what personnel changes may occur if it does.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85