UFC Fight Night Ortega vs. Rodriguez Analysis & Betting Tips

UFC Fight Night Long Island – 7.16.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Long Island: Ortega vs Rodriguez. This is a very fun card starting early morning Saturday at the UBS Arena. Live fans are going to be treated to a slate of very competitive matchups. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 177-101-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 175-103-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 7-15-2022 at 5pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 11:00am EST

Emily Ducote -160 vs Jessica Penne +130

Anthony: The card begins at eleven in the morning with strawweights Emily Ducote and Jessica Penne touching gloves. This is the UFC debut for Ducote who is a decent prospect entering the promotion. She’s achieved plenty of success fighting in Invicta FC just as Penne had been ten years ago. I admire how well-rounded Ducote has become over the past few fights in particular. Her striking is very refined and she certainly will have the edge over Penne when it comes to boxing here today. Ducote also has an extensive background wrestling that can be relied on if she does fall behind. Penne is .500 since joining the promotion after The Ultimate Fighter. She is 39-years-old and I struggle seeing a clear path to victory for her here in this matchup. Ducote has only really proven vulnerable against superior grapplers and Penne is not going to be that. Perhaps the veteran could catch a lucky submission but over the course of fifteen minutes Ducote will prove she is the better athlete and fighter. I feel pretty confident backing her as she has faced tough competition like this already outside the UFC. Emily Ducote by Decision
Nick: This is a decent match-up at strawweight between a debutante in Emily Ducote and a seasoned veteran in Jessica Penne. Jessica Penne is coming off back-to-back wins for the first time since 2012. She’s a pioneer of women’s MMA, but there’s really no denying she’s past her prime as a competitor. She’s primarily a grappler, with nine of her fourteen professional wins coming by way of submission. She has a high Fight IQ, but she can be hittable in exchanges and as she continues to age her durability is becoming a bit of a concern. Emily Ducote will be making her UFC debut here, coming off back-to-back finish wins for Invicta FC. She’s a decent striker with surprising power for her frame, but at the UFC level I expect she’ll start to lean on her grappling a bit more moving forward. I expect Ducote to have a significant advantage on the feet in this match-up. She’s much quicker and more technically sound in striking exchanges compared to Penne. On the other hand, I see Penne as the more advanced and dangerous grappler, but not so much more advanced that Ducote won’t be able to work back to her feet if she needs to. This is a tough match-up to call as Ducote is somewhat unproven. However, I see her as the rightful favorite. She should be able to mostly keep this fight standing where she’ll likely pick Penne apart at range. Emily Ducote by Decision

Dwight Grant -130 vs Dustin Stoltzfus +105

Anthony: Next on the card is a fight at middleweight between Dwight Grant and Dustin Stoltzfus. These are two lower-level fighters and it is hard to feel confident backing either one. Grant is moving up to 185 pounds here for the first time in more than a decade. He was never a massive welterweight but it seems he is altering his career path after two consecutive losses. He has always been a power threat on the feet but I think that is especially going to be the case here after not depleting himself on the scales. He has scored knockdowns in multiple UFC fights and Stoltzfus will likely get caught if he spends much time striking in this matchup. Stoltzfus is a rather proficient grappler but he has gone 0-3 since joining the promotion. This is his most winnable fight but I really doubt we see sustained top control for Stoltzfus here. If Grant is aggressive early and anticipates the takedowns, I see him finding a finish and getting back into the win column. Dwight Grant by Round One KO
Nick: Dwight Grant recently returned to one of the better camps in the country in AKA. He spent some time away, but he’s been struggling so he’s hoping going back to his roots can get him back on track. He is fairly well-rounded with accurate striking but he doesn’t really throw a ton of volume. He has knockout power, but if he doesn’t finish his fights early he sometimes struggles to maintain much of an attack. He’s most content to stand and trade, but his chin and durability have been on the decline. Stoltzfus is relatively well-rounded when you watch him on film. He has a somewhat surprisingly effective kicking game which he uses to keep his opponents at range. As good as his kicking can look, Stoltzfus is primarily a grappler. He has a strong wrestling base and while his BJJ is still very much developing, he’s already shown an ability to find creative submissions with wins via both kneebar and twister. As impressive as this may seem, he’s only really been dominating on the ground against low-level competition. He’s coming off three consecutive losses, which means there’s a good chance he’s cut from the roster if he can’t get a win in this spot. This is Grant’s first fight at 185 pounds since 2011. He’s going to be considerably outsized in this match-up and while his durability may improve, it will likely be difficult for him to keep this fight standing. This is a low-level matchup, so I don’t want to get overinvested either way but I see Stoltzfus as the proper side here. I expect he should outsize Grant considerably here so he should be able to lean on his grappling early as he works for a finish. Dustin Stoltzfus by Round One Submission

Da Un Jung -125 vs Dustin Jacoby +105

Anthony: Next is a fight at light heavyweight between Da Un Jung and Dustin Jacoby. This is some perfect matchmaking. Neither one of these guys have lost an MMA fight since 2015. They are both on impressive UFC runs as of late with a draw sprinkled into the resume of each man. Da Un Jung has really rounded into form, beating William Knight and Kennedy Nzechukwu last year. He has gradually taken steps up in competition and again moves up the ladder to face Jacoby today. I think it is imperative for Jung to wrestle if he wants to win this fight. Jacoby is an elite kickboxer who should have no problem picking apart Da Un Jung while this bout is at range. Jung may be able to land big while standing but he has a far clearer path to victory securing takedowns. However, I do not think that will be easy as Jacoby has stopped plenty of shots in the past. He has also demonstrated the ability to rally and stuff takedowns late even if he is grounded in the early going. He certainly has the cardio advantage in this spot. It is a close fight for sure but at near even odds I love Jacoby. Jung is not nearly as technically sound on the feet. It is shocking to see him likely closing as the favorite. Dustin Jacoby by Round Three KO
Nick: Dustin Jacoby has excellent striking ability. A former Glory Kickboxer, he presents a diverse arsenal of kicks and he generally does a good job using them to keep his opponents at range. Jacoby has a nice jab, a strong left hook, and he has continuously shown an ability to eat punches in order to throw them. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2015, and he could enter the rankings at light heavyweight with another win in this spot. Jung is a powerful striker, but he doesn’t throw much volume. We’ve recently seen him lean more on his grappling abilities, which could present his cleanest pack to victory in this match-up against a talented striker in Jacoby. This should be a fun and competitive match-up, but I see Jacoby being the aggressor and controlling the pace. He should be able to avoid any big counters coming from Jung, out-volume him on the feet and then keep this fight standing if and when Jung tries to take him down. Dustin Jacoby by Decision

Bill Algeo -215 vs Herbert Burns +175

Anthony: This fight between Bill Algeo and Herbert Burns came together on rather short notice. Originally, Burns was slated to face the undefeated Khusein Askhabov in what would’ve been a very dangerous matchup. The Russian was forced to pull out of the bout this week, just the same as Algeo’s opponent Billy Quarantillo. As a result, these two have been paired together. It should be a fun and competitive fight but I do think Algeo has a clear technical advantage. He is the better striker than Burns and a whole three-inches taller. Largely relying on output, Algeo does a great job of switching stances and attacking his opponents both high and low. Alego also realizes a lot of success in tight clinch situations given his frame in this division. Burns will clearly be looking to grapple in order to win this fight by submission. Takedowns have come pretty easily for Burns in the UFC but Alego has takedown defense I feel comfortable relying on. He will be at a disadvantage on the mat but hopefully Burns does not put him in too many situations there. With the way training camps shook out I feel like Alego is a pretty safe bet here on short notice. Burns is durable but this seems like a fight Algeo wins pretty convincingly by doubling or tripling his volume on the feet. Bill Algeo by Decision
Nick: Algeo’s striking looks solid offensively, but he often seems to leave himself open to counter-shots. He has a long frame, but he doesn’t fully utilize his reach advantage as he throws a lot of crosses and looping hooks. He puts together effective combos, but he often leaves his hands down too low against good counter punchers. Algeo has underrated offensive grappling as a BJJ black belt. That being said, he’s unlikely to lean on that part of his game against a dangerous BJJ player in Herbert Burns. Herbert Burns is the younger brother of top welterweight contender Gilbert Burns. He’s primarily a grappler as an advanced BJJ blackbelt with eight of his eleven professional wins coming via submission. He’s been out of action since August of 2020 due to a knee injury. It’s tough to know what version we see of him here as he’s been extremely inconsistent throughout his career. Algeo has just a 55 percent takedown defense, but he’s never been submitted. He does a good job working back to his feet once he is grounded and I expect he’ll have a considerable cardio and durability advantage here. There is no denying Burns will be live for an upset by submission. However, I see Algeo as the proper favorite. He is simply the tougher and more versatile fighter in this matchup. Bill Algeo by Decision

Jack Shore -150 vs Ricky Simon +125

Anthony: This bantamweight scrap between Ricky Simon and Jack Shore is going to be one of the best fights on this entire card. These are two elite fighters in the division with very bright futures ahead. Shore really impressed me in his last fight, beating Timur Valiev by decision. He proved to be the more sophisticated and accurate striker in that bout. What really stood out to me though was his scrambling ability and success hitting reversals on Valiev’s takedown attempts. That will be key again here facing Simon as his high-pressure wrestling will as always be on display. Simon averages more than two takedowns landed per round. However, Shore defends 84 percent of takedowns and if he can keep this fight on the feet we will see him realize much more success striking than Simon. You can give Simon the edge in terms of punching power but Shore is far superior technically. There have been improvements in Simon’s striking for sure but confidence in the standup could play to his detriment here. I do not want to bet Shore in a close, scramble heavy affair but he does feel like the correct side. He should remain undefeated after today and continue to climb the ladder at bantamweight. Jack Shore by Decision
Nick: This is one of the more intriguing matchups on the entire card between two ranked and well-rounded fighters at bantamweight. Jack Shore is primarily a grappler and he comes into this match-up at an undefeated 16-0. He has a solid wrestling base with an excellent gas tank and he continues to show considerable improvements in his striking. Shore is content to stand and trade, but his chain wrestling is what has led him to most of his wins professionally. Simon has been somewhat of an underachiever, but he’s still amongst the class of this division. He is coming off consecutive wins over Rafael Assuncao, Brian Kelleher, Gaetano Pirrello and Ray Borg, but none of those are over an opponent as dangerous as Shore. This is a closer matchup than the line suggests, but I see Shore as the rightful favorite here. Shore has a near 90 percent takedown defense in the UFC. He’s extremely active if he is taken down and he’s capable of scoring his own takedowns by countering in scrambles. Simon will have an edge in both experience and overall wrestling, but I expect this fight to take place at striking range where Shore will be longer and land the more consistent damaging shots. This is a match-up between two gifted grapplers, which oftentimes results in a fight taking place primarily on the feet. Jack Shore by Decision

Punahele Soriano -235 vs Dalcha Lungiambula +185

Anthony: Closing out the prelims is an exciting middleweight matchup between Dalcha Lungiambula and Punahele Soriano. These fighters are both in need of a win as they enter here on 0-2 skids. Soriano had been undefeated until July of last year. Lungiambula feels like an easier puzzle for him to solve compared to previous opponents Nick Maximov and Brendan Allen. Soriano has always been a dynamic striker and I think the southpaw look gives Lungiambula a lot of trouble here. I expect Puna to be the faster fighter and more often the one pushing forward on the front foot. Output has been inconsistent for both guys but Lungiambula is the far less volume heavy of these two. He will be looking to land big or perhaps utilize his judo to get this fight onto the ground. Soriano has a good base in freestyle wrestling and can probably spend most of this fight at distance here in the larger cage. I expect him to keep to his feet and win this fight against Lungiambula inside of the distance. While I am confident in Soriano and Xtreme Couture getting this win, I probably won’t have money on it with odds sitting so wide. Punahele Soriano by Round One KO
Nick: Soriano’s greatest strength is his powerful left hand. Additionally, for someone lacking significant professional experience he looks polished in exchanges. While Soriano is certainly most dangerous on the feet, he is an underrated grappler with a solid Judo base. He was an all-American wrestler in high school, but he certainly seems more inclined to stand and trade at the UFC level. Lungiambula is another fighter that comes in with questions surrounding his cardio. He looked fine at weigh-ins for this fight, but if he can’t end things early there’s a good chance he starts to fall apart in the later rounds. He’s a monster in terms of his physical frame, but his excessive muscle makes it difficult to stay fresh as the fight wears on. Lungiambula has enough power and explosiveness to take almost anyone out by KO. He has a solid Judo base, but he seems rigid in the cage and can sometimes be sluggish in exchanges. He was dominating Cody Brundage his last time out, before his cardio started to fail him and he was caught in a submission. Soriano is coming off back-to-back losses for this first time in his young career. The line certainly feels too wide here, but I see him as having advantages no matter where this fight goes. Lungiambula will be dangerous early, but Soriano should be able to catch him as he begins to fade. Punahele Soriano by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 2:00pm EST

Miesha Tate -190 vs Lauren Murphy +155

Anthony: Opening the main card will be a fight at flyweight between Lauren Murphy and Miesha Tate. This is the first time Tate has competed at 125 pounds after previously reigning as bantamweight champion. On the scales she of course was more sucked out than usual but she still made weight with no issue. Murphy poses a very difficult test for Tate. Usually, it is wrestling and grappling that gets the job done for Cupcake but Murphy is just as talented as she is on the mat. We have seen Murphy control some opponents with ease before and I think a lighter Miesha Tate will be less effective when wrestling. I can completely understand fading the 38-year-old in this bout, but Tate is only three years younger than Murphy. The value is certainly on the side of the underdog who has won five of her last six bouts. Murphy always fights hard for her backers and has grit not often displayed in women’s MMA. She has the advantage striking in this matchup but could also win in a brawl if she absolutely needs to. Lauren Murphy by Decision
Nick: As former bantamweight champion, Tate has found most of her success utilizing her advanced wrestling and offensive grappling ability. She fell to Ketlen Vieira via decision her last time out as she was too content to stand and trade with a superior striker. She’ll be moving down a weight class here for the first time in career here and it’s been stated that if she wins this fight she could be the next in line for a title shot. Murphy’s greatest strength has always been her toughness. She has no real standout skill, but she’s solid pretty much everywhere and her sheer grit and determination often carries her to victory. Murphy does a good job fighting in the clinch and up against the cage. She can usually outmuscle most of her opponents, but I expect that could be difficult for her here against Tate, who is used to fighting ten pounds heavier. The line is getting a bit too wide to bet, but I see Tate as the rightful favorite. She’s simply more technically sound in all aspects of her game. Miesha Tate by Decision

Shane Burgos -170 vs Charles Jourdain +140

Anthony: Next we have a banger at featherweight as Shane Burgos will fight Charles Jourdain. They are each coming off impressive performances and looking to earn a bonus here. Burgos has had three crazy fights in a row and is always going to light up an arena. He fights today in front of a supportive crowd in his native New York. I really like the forward pressure that Burgos is able to employ. He puts a lot of work into the body and has thrown north of 100 significant strikes in five consecutive bouts. Jourdain is in the best physical shape we have seen. He should be able to utilize his left kick to not only hurt Burgos but walk him into his power. Jourdain has begun to put it all together in his previous few fights and I am excited to see him go to work again in this one. He really has come alive in the latter half of bouts so I would not be surprised to see Burgos get out to an early lead. I am picking Jourdain but expect it to be one of the best fights all evening regardless of outcome. Burgos has a great chin but he does get touched a lot. I feel like the odds are wider than they should be and personally I do not mind taking a chance on the dog. I expect this to be extremely competitive. Charles Jourdain by Round Three KO
Nick: This is an excellent match-up with a serious chance to be awarded Fight of the Night. Burgos is a volume machine, he throws a ton of strikes and does a good job keeping his opponents guessing by mixing in body shots. He’s an outstanding Boxer, and on fight day he’s a lot bigger than most of the other guys in the division. The one knock on Burgos is that likes to lean forward to bait opponents into strikes. He’s a fighter more than willing to take shots to throw them and his durability has started to visibly decline over the past couple of years. Jourdain has flashed knockout power, which was fully on display in his UFC debut against Doo Ho Choi. He throws a wide range of flashy strikes, pushing an excellent pace and controlling the cage against lower-level opponents. He’s coming off back-to-back impressive wins over Lando Vannata and Andre Ewell. He’s going to be the more dangerous finisher in this spot, but I see Burgos as the far more technical of the two. Burgos is going to have a 6” reach advantage here. He’s 6-0 when fighting in his home state of New York, and he’s found more success against a better level of competition. While I’ve certainly been impressed by Jourdain and consider him to be live for a KO upset in this spot, it seems far more likely that Burgos can lean on superior footwork to protect himself and outland Jourdain over the course of three rounds. Shane Burgos by Decision

Sumudaerji -260 vs Matt Schnell +200

Anthony: Next is a matchup at flyweight between Sumudaerji and Matt Schnell. These are two fighters trending in opposite directions. Sumudaerji has won three fights in a row while Schnell has lost two bouts back-to-back. While Sumudaerji’s opponents have not been very dynamic, Schnell isn’t a huge step up in competition either. Certainly a fighter like Schnell is no walk in the park but he is a bit one dimensional, using a boxing heavy attack to control distance and secure rounds. For as good as he can be offensively Schnell also absorbs more than four significant strikes per minute which is a recipe for disaster against a striker like this. While I do feel these odds have gotten a bit too wide I certainly think Sumudaerji is the rightful favorite given his style and ability to finish fights. Schnell probably could find success on the mat if he were to wrestle here but I am not ready to rely on him doing so having just two takedowns across ten UFC fights. I think he gets stopped again here just two months after being choked out by Brandon Royval. Sumudaerji by Round Two KO
Nick: Schnell is sometimes considered a slow starter, but he has underrated power on the feet. His striking is decent, but his offensive grappling is his greatest strength as a BJJ black belt with nine of his fifteen professional wins coming by way of submission. His durability/chin is of major concern, which is likely why this line is so wide in this particular match-up. Su Sumudaerji is primarily a striker. He keeps a wide and open stance, and his outstanding speed and footwork make him a tough target for any opponent on the counter. His power is solid, but his outstanding volume and counter striking ability are his greatest strengths. By most accounts, this is a classic striker versus grappler matchup. Sumudaerji is much better than Schnell on the feet, but Schnell has a significant grappling advantage on the mat. Schnell’s best bet here would be to try to take this fight to the mat, control position and then grind out a Submission. He’s going to be in serious danger whenever this fight is standing, but he should be able to close distance and he’ll be very live for a submission if he can score a takedown early. This is by no means a confident play, but I’m siding with the underdog in Schnell. Sumudaerji is likely to win by spectacular KO, but if he doesn’t Schnell’s dramatic advantages on the mat should be enough to score him a victory. Another low confidence play due to Schnell’s questionable chin and durability, but all the value is on the underdog. Matt Schnell by Round One Submission

Muslim Salikhov -160 vs Li Jingliang +130

Anthony: The featured bout is a welterweight fight between Muslim Salikhov and Li Jingliang. This has been one of the more difficult matchups on the card for me to predict. Salikhov won five fights in a row since his UFC debut but has really been squeaking by. Lackluster performances against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Francisco Trinaldo make me hesitant to back him against highly ranked opponents. He is a powerful striker but rather reserved in terms of output. Jingliang has a tendency to get caught and Salikhov is an opponent that can finally make him pay for those sorts of mistakes. Salikhov also has the grappling advantage here and I think he could take control of this fight on the mat if he elects to shoot once or twice. Jingliang is faster and the more explosive striker so mixing in a few takedowns would be the smartest game plan against him. I do not recommend betting Salikhov at these odds but he is going to be my choice to get the victory. Muslim Salikhov by Decision
Nick: Muslim Salikhov is an excellent striker with an iron chin and a ton of power behind his shots. He’s a former kickboxer and one-dimensional, but he’s good enough on the feet to hang with almost anyone in the division. He throws a wide range of diverse strikes, including a lot of spinning attacks and high kicks. Li Jingliang is a powerful striker with a fun aggressive style, but similarly to Salikhov he is fairly one dimensional. Li Jingliang is extremely dangerous offensively, but we’ve seen him get reckless at times in exchanges. He has a decent 58% striking defense compared to Salikhov’s outstanding 81 percent. He’s going to need to be careful not to get clipped here, but I do see him as the more dangerous striker on the feet. Salikhov is coming off three consecutive decision wins, and each of Jingliang’s last three wins have come by knockout. Also, in watching Salikhov’s most recent performance against Francisco Trinaldo he seems to be slowing down. The line is definitely too wide and he feels overpriced, but I’m siding with the favorite. I see Li Jingliang as the more athletic and explosive striker here in a fight I expect should primarily take place on the feet. Li Jingliang by Round Two KO

Amanda Lemos -300 vs Michelle Waterson +235

Anthony: The co-main event is a women’s strawweight bout with Michelle Waterson taking on Amanda Lemos. After a one-off at flyweight it’s good to see Waterson back in the division she belongs in. Fights have not been going her way as of late but Lemos is a good opponent to draw stylistically. Waterson has the advantage taking this fight to the mat and exploiting the grappling deficiency of Lemos. Waterson may not be strong enough to secure clean takedowns and win that way but she is certainly worth a look as such a sizable underdog. Lemos is the faster and more technical striker. Neither woman has crazy knockout power but Lemos certainly can put together better combinations and win this fight by piecing up Waterson on the feet. While Waterson may be able to use finesse and steal some moments in the standup I expect her to look outmatched as the striking exchanges get longer. Jessica Andrade was able to choke out Lemos standing but Waterson is not nearly as decorated in terms of her jiu jitsu. The Brazilian should walk away with her hand raised here, but in no world does she deserve to be a -300 favorite. Amanda Lemos by Decision
Nick: This is a high-level women’s match-up between two of the division’s more interesting contenders. Prior to her recent loss to Jessica Andrade, Lemos hadn’t lost a fight since 2017. Three of her last five wins have come inside the distance and she’s one of the more dangerous finishers in the division. Waterson throws clean and measured strikes, but she often throws out of her opponent’s range. She should have a grappling advantage in this match-up, but as a former atomweight I’m not confident in her strength as it applies to taking Lemos down. Waterson will have an experience advantage here, but it seems her career might be on the downturn while Lemos seems to be headed in the opposite direction. The line has gotten completely out of hand here, but Lemos is the more dangerous fighter as well as the more potent finisher. Even if Waterson can win minutes early, I see the stronger and more athletic Lemos causing more damage and taking over as this fight wears on. Amanda Lemos by Round Two KO

Brian Ortega -175 vs Yair Rodriguez +140

Anthony: The main event should be a fantastic fight at featherweight between Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega. Each is coming off a brutal decision loss in their last bout. T-City went to war with Alexander Volkanovski and despite having the champion in numerous submission attempts, Ortega was unable to keep up with his volume and power for five rounds. Rodriguez went back-and-forth with Max Holloway but absorbed more damage and faded as that fight wore on. This division is filled with absolute killers and I am excited to see these two throw down. Rodriguez is the more diverse striker but both these guys have excellent kickboxing that makes them confident inciting a brawl. It is probably ideal for Ortega to stay at close range in order to nullify Yair’s reach advantage and limit the spinning attacks at range. He may get worked a bit on the feet but Ortega should be at an advantage if and when this fight hits the mat. I like his chances to catch a submission over the course of five full rounds, but I do worry about Ortega as the favorite if unable to lock something up. Rodriguez is great at scrambling and hopefully has been drilling takedown defense in preparation for this main event. He has also never been submitted. Max Holloway surprised Yair with several well-timed shots but Ortega will likely need to be picky with his entries in order to establish a position he can work from. If we see a finish in this fight it will probably be Ortega getting his hand raised, but I think these two Mexican warriors end up slugging it out for the better part of 25 minutes. Getting Rodriguez at plus money feels like the play if this is to go the scorecards. Only one top-10 featherweight has lost inside the distance over the past three years of UFC action. Yair Rodriguez by Decision
Nick: As a blackbelt under Rener Gracie, Ortega has extremely advanced jiu jitsu and offensive grappling ability. We’ve seen him score a variety of submissions against the best of this 145-pound division and while he has made serious improvements in his striking over the years, there’s no denying that his BJJ remains his most effective weapon. He is most recently coming off a tough loss to the champion, Alexander Volkanovski. He was mostly dominated on the feet in that fight, but he did nearly finish Ortega via mounted guillotine after catching him with a counter. Ortega has an outstanding chin and excellent durability and cardio. He arguably won the fifth round against Volkanovski, which is certainly a testament to his toughness. Yair Rodriguez is a talented striker with surprising power for his frame. He throws a wide range of strikes. He does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations and he does a good job leaning on them to keep his opponents at range. Rodriguez throws a lot of spinning attacks. When he lands, they can be extremely effective. However, when he misses he leaves himself open to counter shots and in this specific match-up he could be leaving openings for Ortega to score takedowns. Ortega is a decent striker and I expect him to have his moments on the feet here. He has a very clear path to victory if he can take this fight to the mat. Yair has a mediocre 60 percent takedown defense in the UFC, which to me won’t be enough to keep Ortega off him. Rodriguez is certainly dangerous here, especially early. However, I expect Ortega to eventually secure the takedowns he needs to find that submission. Brian Ortega by Round Three Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_