UFC Vegas 58 Analysis & Betting Tips

UFC Vegas 58: Dos Anjos vs Fiziev – 7.9.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 58: Dos Anjos vs Fiziev. Las Vegas has been full of action for International Fight Week and today we are back at the UFC Apex for a fun slate of matchups. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 172-95-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 169-98-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 7-8-2022 at 9pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 6:00pm EST

Ronnie Lawrence -130 vs Saidyokub Kakhramonov +105

Anthony: The action starts today with this bantamweight fight between Ronnie Lawrence and Saidyokub Kakhramonov. Lawrence has done great in his two UFC fights thus far, demonstrating an ability to fight while standing and on the mat. He is the harder hitting fighter and more likely to take this to the ground if things are not going his way trading strikes with Kakhramonov. He has never been finished before and I do not believe Kakhramonov will be the guy to catch him in anything. For Kakhramonov, the key in this fight will likely be throwing more volume than Lawrence and avoiding the grappling exchanges at all costs. It is shaping up to be your typical back and forth, scramble heavy fight we are accustomed to seeing in this weight class. I will side with Lawrence here as he is at a clear advantage in those exchanges on the mat. I love his ability to take control of opponents and beat them to most positions when rolling. The only loss Lawrence has suffered was to current UFC lightweight Steve Garcia. Kakhramonov is talented and dangerous but these betting odds should be quite a bit wider than they are. Ronnie Lawrence by Decision
Nick: Lawrence is a highly regarded prospect at 135 who puts a serious pace on his opponents. He is well-rounded and can finish a fight in a number of ways. He has shown increasingly crisp striking with good head movement and footwork, but his greatest strength is certainly his powerful and relentless wrestling ability. Lawrence is coming off five consecutive wins, including two under the UFC banner. He won via Decision his last time out, but it is notable that he ate a few clean shots in that one, was visibly damaged and started to fade late in that third round. Saidyoukub Kakharamonov is coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut via third round submission over Trevin Jones. He’s a technically sound striker with solid BJJ and when you watch him on film he seems to be a decent defensive grappler as well. Kakhramonov looked surprisingly good in his PFL matchup with Usman Nurmagomedov. Nurmagomedov is widely considered a top prospect and future title contender at 135, and Kakhramonov definitely showed he’s capable of competing at this level. It’s a small sample size, but Lawrence averages more than nine takedowns per fifteen minutes in the UFC. The key to this matchup will be whether or not he can consistently ground Kakharamonov. This is a tough fight to call, but I do expect Lawrence can lean on a grappling heavy game plan in this spot. Kakharamonov will be dangerous on the feet here, especially early. Still, Lawrence’s superior cardio and ability to dictate where this fight goes should play out in his favor. Ronnie Lawrence by Decision

Kennedy Nzechukwu -155 vs Karl Roberson +130

Anthony: Next we have a bout at light heavyweight with Karl Roberson taking on Kennedy Nzechukwu. I’ve made money in Roberson’s past three octagon appearances as he was finished in each rather easily. He is not a very durable or defensively aware fighter and often he finds himself on the wrong end of striking exchanges. Often Roberson is most vulnerable on the mat but even a striker like Nzechukwu has a good chance at getting him out of there. It is hard to neglect Roberson’s advanced kickboxing credentials but I really do not love how his style translates to MMA. Nzechukwu should hit harder than Roberson and use his size and strength to bully his way into dominant striking exchanges along the fence. There are concerns with Nzechukwu’s durability as well but it is really slow starts that have cost him lately. I think he gets the better of Roberson and snaps this two-fight losing skid. At nearly even money I find it very hard to justify a bet backing Roberson. He has not won a fight since 2019. Kennedy Nzechukwu by Round Two KO
Nick: We have an interesting matchup here between two light heavyweight strikers, who are both coming off consecutive losses. It seems very likely that whoever loses this matchup ends up cut from the UFC roster. Roberson is a talented kickboxer who does an excellent job striking at range. He throws powerful kicks out of both stances, he’s very athletic and he’s shown he can put on a pace that is difficult for his opponents to match. He struggles in the grappling department, but he’s in a more favorable matchup here against another striker in Nzechukwu. The biggest knock on Nzechukwu is his low output and tendency to stay excessively conservative as he waits for fights to come to him. He’s a dangerous striker and technically sound offensively, but his extreme tentativeness prevents him from dominating inferior opponents. He is coming off back-to-back losses to Da Un Jung and Nick Negumereanu. In each of those matchups he had physical advantages, but his lack of volume left him vulnerable and ultimately cost him in both matchups. This is a low level matchup and I don’t recommend investing heavily on either fighter. However, I see Roberson’s technical advantages shining through on the feet. I also expect him to be the better grappler in this spot. I’m encouraged by his recent move to an excellent camp in Glory MMA under James Krause. Karl Roberson by Round Two Submission

David Onama -900 vs Garrett Armfield +550

Anthony: This is a short notice fight between David Onama and Garrett Armfield. Originally Onama had been scheduled to face Austin Lingo at this event but the late scratch forced in Armfield earlier this week. This is actually a rematch of an amateur fight that took place in 2018. Onama beat Armfield by decision over the course of 5 three-minute rounds. Both fighters turned professional immediately after that contest. It has been a very impressive run for Onama since then winning nine of ten. His only loss was a very gutsy performance up at lightweight against Mason Jones. He continues to develop everywhere under the training of James Krause at Glory MMA and Fitness. I am expecting Onama to get the finish early here today as Armfield is not anywhere near as polished at this stage of his career. Armfield is also moving up from bantamweight and I know Onama’s punches will now overwhelm him. With five minutes to work each round Onama should be able to settle in and land early boxing combinations. I would be very surprised to see more than two rounds necessary. Armfield will likely be shooting and I trust Onama’s defensive grappling to keep him out of harm’s way. David Onama by Round One KO
Nick: David Onama fights out of Glory MMA, under an excellent head coach in James Krause. He’s coming off an impressive KO win over Gabriel Benitez, a fight in which he overwhelmed Benitez with power and speed and took him out in the first round. Onama is a dangerous striker with explosive combinations and excellent footwork. He does a good job mixing in shots to the body to slow his opponents down, he works well at range and he’s shown continued improvements in his grappling abilities as well. Garrett Armfield is a decent prospect, but he’s taking this fight on less than a week’s notice Additionally, he’ll be fighting up a weight class here. He’s going to be considerably outsized in this matchup and without a full camp I just don’t think he’ll have anything for Onama. The line has gotten a bit out of hand here, but Onama is very clearly the side. If you’re betting him, I’d back him inside the distance for a better price. David Onama by Round One KO

Tresean Gore -140 vs Cody Brundage +115

Anthony: Next up is a fight at middleweight with Cody Brundage taking on Tresean Gore. Brundage stepped up to keep this fight together after Gore had originally signed to fight Josh Fremd at today’s event. I think that Brundage is a solid test for Gore given his wide arsenal of skills and ability to fight smart. He trains at an excellent gym in factoryX. Simply outworking Gore over the course of fifteen minutes is probably his best bet at winning, but Brundage also holds the advantage if this fight were to hit the mat. The reason Gore is still getting respect after that loss to Bryan Battle is due to the danger he poses on the feet. He is a thunderous striker who can really hurt guys when landing clean. Gore landed a big strike on Battle in the second round and his eye swelled shut almost immediately. He does well connecting with accuracy and not wasting punches, but I do wish the output was a bit higher. At near even odds I think Gore is an easy pick given that nuclear option he possesses. There are other ways that he could win this fight but knockout seems like the most probable outcome. I think a high-pressure fighter like Brundage will end up getting clipped early. Tresean Gore by Round Two KO
Nick: Tresean Gore has serious power in his strikes, but he also has steady hips and a solid overall wrestling base. He comes into this matchup with a suspect 3-1 professional record, but there’s really no denying he has a power advantage in this spot. Gore is coming off the first loss of his career, which came to fellow TUF alum Bryan Battle. Gore had moments in that fight, but he did not put out much volume on the feet and he was outworked in a lot of grappling exchanges which primarily took place up against the cage. Brundage has a powerful wrestling base and he does a good job pouring damage on his opponents if he can find himself in top position. He’s going to have a technical wrestling advantage here, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to keep Gore down long enough to stay safe. This is another low-level spot, but I expect Gore’s striking advantages to be more significant than Brundage’s grappling. Tresean Gore by Round Two KO

Antonina Shevchenko -180 vs Cortney Casey +145

Anthony: This is a women’s flyweight fight between Antonina Shevchenko and Cortney Casey. They are lower-level athletes compared to many in this division but the matchup today is compelling as they face one another. Both have glaring holes when it comes to defensive grappling and I expect them to largely engage on the feet this evening. Shevchenko is a very high-level kickboxer having trained alongside Valentina for years. Her intelligent striking and ability to do damage in the clinch could end up being sufficient in winning this fight but I am not ready to lay such wide odds on her. Shevchenko got finished in both bouts she fought last year and really lacks quality wins since joining the UFC. Casey is very durable and if she can keep up with Shevchenko’s volume I could certainly see her winning a decision. It is my least confident pick on the card but hopefully Casey can make this scrappy and cash as a small underdog. Cortney Casey by Decision
Nick: If this fight stays on the feet, Shevchenko is likely to have the advantage. Fighting out of Tiger Muay Thai, she has outstanding striking ability. She’s nowhere near her sister Valentina’s level, but she’s the more polished kickboxer in comparison to Casey. Casey is certainly no slouch on the feet, but she doesn’t really have the power behind her shots that Shevchenko does. If this fight stays standing, I expect Shevchenko to start to pull away by causing the more noticeable damage. Cortney Casey has been out of action since November of 2021. She’s coming off a win over Liana Jojua, but there’s really no denying the fact that Jojua isn’t UFC caliber. I’m also favoring Shevchenko here if this fight hits the mat. This is another low-level spot and I don’t recommend betting heavily on either side. Still, Shevchenko should have technical advantages no matter where this one goes. Antonina Shevchenko by Decision

Ricky Turcios -195 vs Aiemann Zahabi +160

Anthony: Closing out the prelims is a very fun fight at bantamweight between Aiemann Zahabi and Ricky Turcios. I am excited to see Turcios back in action after his war last summer against Brady Hiestand. He put on a great performance in the third round of that fight and proved to be a problem with his cardio and constant pressure. He chips away at opponents very well and sets a pace early on that very few can keep up with. I think that cardio advantage could be especially prevalent here against a fighter in Zahabi that cuts a lot of weight. Zahabi is the better technical striker and more dangerous fighter at kickboxing range. There will be areas he can find success in this fight but I believe Turcios has better knowledge of distance. He should win most striking exchanges and also has an advantage over Zahabi if he elects to take this fight to the mat. It’s hard to bet heavily on a fight with these odds but I am rather confident in Turcios getting his hand raised. I expect this to be a convincing decision. Ricky Turcios by Decision
Nick: Turcios is a highly aggressive and an extremely creative striker. He’s solid in scrambles as well, but he finds most of his success in the middle of the cage just striking at range. He is the most recent winner of The Ultimate Fighter. He showed an impressive ability to weaponize his cardio while on the show. He can be hittable, but he’s undoubtedly durable and willing to get into a dog fight. Aiemann Zahabi is coming off an impressive win via KO over a once highly regarded prospect in Drako Rodriguez. Zahabi is a talented striker who can throw quick and effective combinations. He works well behind his jab and he generally does a good job staying out of danger and striking on the outside. He has underrated BJJ, but he’s often tentative in the cage and his lack of activity often costs him either defensively or on the scorecards. The line has gotten out of hand here, this fight feels closer to a coin flip than the line suggests. That being said, I’m backing Turcios. Zahabi may have technical advantages here, but I see Turcios being the more active fighter and winning more minutes on his way to a decision. Ricky Turcios by Decision

Main Card- Starts 9:00pm EST

Jamie Mullarkey -235 vs Michael Johnson +185

Anthony: Opening the main card is a lightweight scrap between Jamie Mullarkey and Michael Johnson. In a return to action this May we saw Johnson finish Alan Patrick and snap a four-fight losing streak. It was a vintage performance as he was clearly the better boxer with sharper connections that night. Mullarkey is going to be a much more difficult opponent for Johnson looking to make it two in a row. I believe he has a lot more polished arsenal than that of Johnson and if he finds his range he should excel in this spot. Mullarkey implements high pressure which will certainly be of benefit here against someone with Johnson’s length. Mullarkey can wrestle in this spot too if needed. There is an argument to be made for Johnson as the underdog here but I warn you not to overrate his last performance. He looked fast fighting a man older than him but Johnson will struggle more with timing here facing a guy nine years younger. Jamie Mullarkey by Round Two KO
Nick: Michael Johnson was once considered a future title contender at 155. He has notable wins over Tony Ferguson, Dustin Poirier, and Edson Barboza. That being said, there’s really no denying he’s a shell of the fighter he was in his prime. Johnson is a highly technical southpaw striker but his fight IQ and durability have deteriorated over the years. He’s coming off a solid win via KO over Alan Patrick, but Patrick is one of the worst fighters in the division. Jamie Mullarkey is a well-rounded brawler, coming off a loss to a now ranked opponent in Jalin Turner. He had moments early in that fight, but he was ultimately overpowered by a much bigger and more athletic opponent. Mullarkey should have cardio and durability advantages in this matchup, but his greatest advantage should come in the grappling department. He’s become known mostly as a brawler, but Johnson is going to have considerable technical advantages on the feet here. As long as he mixes in his grappling and executes a grappling heavy attack, he should be able to score a win over the veteran here. The line feels too wide, but Mullarkey is the pick. Jamie Mullarkey by Round Two KO

Cynthia Calvillo -160 vs Nina Nunes +130

Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight fight between Cynthia Calvillo and Nina Nunes. This seems like a fair fight and really a must win for both girls as they enter on losing skids. Calvillo has been fighting tough competition but has also not won since her main event bout with Jessica Eye. She is a good wrestler who can get top position and milk clock, but I made a mistake trusting her to do so against Andrea Lee last fall. Takedowns should really come easy against a lifetime strawweight like Nunes but as a favorite Calvillo is very hard to bet on. Nunes could always catch a lucky submission or of course win this fight by taking over with her striking. Calvillo arriving at the scales to make weight last minute is another reason to stay away from this one. I am choosing Calvillo to win but won’t have any action on this fight. Cynthia Calvillo by Decision
Nick: Calvillo finds the majority of her success executing a grappling heavy game plan against smaller and weaker opponents. It wouldn’t shock me if she managed to ground Nunes early here, but I don’t expect she’ll be able to keep her down if she does. Calvillo was once considered a future top prospect at 125, but she’s now coming off three consecutive losses. She’ll likely be cut from the roster if she falls in this spot. Nina Nunes is coming off a tough loss to Mackenzie Dern, but Dern is widely considered a future title contender. She’s most comfortable striking at range, but she’s continued to show major improvements in her grappling abilities. Nunes is the wife and partner of Amanda Nunes, one of the greatest women fighters in UFC history. I expect she’ll be dialed in for this matchup against a fighter in Calvillo who seems to be on her way out. This is a low-level matchup and another low confidence play, but I’ll side with the value of the underdog here. Nina Nunes by Decision

Jared Vanderaa -195 vs Chase Sherman +160

Anthony: This should be a sloppy heavyweight fight with Jared Vanderaa taking on Chase Sherman. Both these men fought in April and lost by first round submission. They are known for fighting multiple times each year. Neither is a savant on the mat but it is important to highlight just how bad Sherman is when mounted or ceding partial top control. He relies solely on his hands to win fights and really is in trouble as soon as his opponent elects to shoot. Vanderaa may not rush into grappling exchanges here although that is his clearest path to victory. He is bigger and could win this fight in a variety of ways. Sherman is very one dimensional and as a result he becomes easy for opponents to gameplan for. These odds are a bit wide but there is no way I am going to bet Sherman even against an opponent like this. Sherman is 3-9 in the UFC without a single impressive victory. Jared Vanderaa by Round Two KO
Nick: This is an extremely low-level matchup at heavyweight between two of the least skilled fighters on the entire roster. Jared Vanderaa throws looping shots and he leaves himself open to counters. He does a good job pushing a pace and he throws high volume, but defensively he leaves a lot to be desired. Vanderaa does have decent wrestling ability for a heavyweight, but he really only has success if he finds himself in top position. He has a solid chin, but it’s tough to call his durability a strength as he’s been KO’d twice professionally. Chase Sherman was once known as a dangerous striker and he usually comes out aggressive. He’s now coming off four consecutive losses, he seems to be slowing down, and it is now well known that his grappling ability is virtually non-existent. If this fight stays standing, Sherman will be live for an upset here. However, I expect Vanderaa to lean on a grappling heavy game plan until he can find a way to finish this on the mat. Jared Vanderaa by Round Two Submission

Said Nurmagomedov -350 vs Douglas Silva de Andrade +265

Anthony: The featured bout is a bantamweight matchup between Said Nurmagomedov and Douglas Silva de Andrade. This is a bit of a step down in competition for Nurmagomedov who finished Cody Stamann very quickly at the start of this year. He has walked away from two straight fights with finishes inside of the very first minute. I do not think Nurmagomedov rushes in for a finish here but his ability to quickly pounce on opportunities makes him a fun fighter to back. Nurmagomedov has excellent grappling and very clean striking from range. He will need to fade the power of D’Silva in this fight but I otherwise expect rather smooth sailing. I like his ability to put together kickboxing combinations and land strikes from creative angles. Silva de Andrade has enjoyed a bit of a career resurgence, but Nurmagomedov is a high-level fighter that should outclass him regardless of where this fight goes. The reckless style of D’Silva could get him into trouble here early. Said Nurmagomedov by Round Two Submission
Nick: Unlike many of the other top Russian prospects, Said Nurmagomedov is primarily a striker. He’s a talented kickboxer who throws a wide range of effective spinning attacks. He’s coming off an impressive win via submission over Cody Stamann, which was especially impressive as Stamann is very difficult to finish. Andrade is a brawler with a lot of power in his strikes. He’s very athletic, but what stands out about him is his toughness and aggressive style. He likes to pressure his opponents early in fights and often overwhelms them by doing so. He’s coming off a dramatic comeback win via submission which came over Sergey Morozov. He was dominated early and nearly finished in that matchup, but his durability and cardio ultimately won out as he managed to take over. Nurmagomedov is going to have a clear advantage on the feet here in terms of technical ability, but de Andrade’s power could potentially be an equalizer. That being said, I also see Nurmagomedov as having better wrestling and cardio. As long as he tucks his chin and doesn’t get overaggressive in exchanges, he should outclass de Andrade no matter where this fight goes. Said Nurmagomedov by Round Three Submission

Caio Borralho -250 vs Armen Petrosyan +200

Anthony: The co-main event is a great matchup at middleweight with Caio Borralho fighting Armen Petrosyan. I’m expecting a very good battle here between solid prospects with a lot of potential in this division. The UFC is also clearly high on both guys giving them this placement on the main card. Petrosyan is coming off a war with Gregory Rodrigues this February. He earned a very grueling split decision win in a fight that saw him really display a great chin and ability to rally. He also fought the undefeated Kaloyan Kolev on Dana White’s Contender Series and after defending constant wrestling early, Petrosyan was able to flatline him in the very first round. The speed and length of Petrosyan make him dangerous at range while his Muay Thai appears to be extremely polished. Borralho will have trouble keeping up with Petrosyan on the feet despite how polished his own striking is. However, the Brazilian is at a clear advantage in terms of grappling and he should have no problem controlling this fight if able to complete an early takedown or two. It is as compelling as a striker versus grappler matchup gets outside of the top fifteen rankings. I really do not think Borralho has proven to be much further developed than Petrosyan to this point. He is certainly more live than these betting odds indicate and I think I have to pull the trigger getting nearly two to one. Armen Petrosyan by Decision
Nick: Borralho is light on his feet and does a good job peppering his opponents at range. His striking has been impressive in his short UFC tenure, but he’s likely going to be outclassed on the feet in this matchup. Petrosyan is a talented kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks and outstanding speed. He manages range well, has outstanding footwork, and six of his seven professional wins have come via KO. If this fight takes place on the feet, Petrosyan will have a great chance to pull off the upset. That being said, I expect Borralho to force grappling exchanges where he should have a considerable advantage. Since these are two fairly untested prospects I don’t want to overinvest here, but stylistically I expect Borralho to get the win. Caio Borralho by Round Two Submission

Rafael Fiziev -215 vs Rafael Dos Anjos +170

Anthony: The main event is a fight scheduled for five rounds at lightweight with Rafael Fiziev taking on Rafael dos Anjos. This is a great test for the hot prospect Fiziev. He has won five in a row since his UFC debut and draws his toughest matchup yet tonight. A fight with dos Anjos is a much more daunting task than Brad Riddell or Bobby Green. Fiziev has a clear advantage striking given his impressive muay thai and kickboxing technique. He also has excellent defensive awareness and a very high motor that allows him to stay moving constantly. I only see him struggling here on the mat against a talented wrestler and 4th degree black belt like RDA. The former champion is accustomed to five round fights and shooting early and often for takedowns should dent Fiziev’s gas tank significantly. However, the 95 percent takedown defense for Fiziev is very hard to bet against. Fiziev could really put a hurting on dos Anjos in the first ten minutes of this fight if the takedown defense holds. Dos Anjos has shared the cage with a lot more killers and can implement an effective game plan to take this bout and move up the rankings. I am just too nervous to back him with concern for how many vintage performances the man really has left. While I do think Fiziev is the one who wins tonight, dos Anjos is a very live underdog. I would not be surprised to see more money pour in on RDA late tonight as he is the far more proven commodity. Nonetheless, I think Fiziev is legit. Rafael Fiziev by Decision

Nick: Dos Anjos is a well-rounded fighter. He’s solid on the feet, but extremely talented on the mat as an advanced BJJ black belt. He does an excellent job controlling position against inferior grapplers and his striking is more technically advanced than the majority of a stacked lightweight decision. He has one of the most impressive resumes in UFC history. He’s a former champion, with notable wins over Paul Felder, Nate Diaz, Benson Henderson, Kevin Lee, and most recently Renato Moicano. Rafael Fiziev is a former striking coach at Tiger Muay Thai. He has ridiculous head movement and throws extremely powerful punches and kicks. He is going to be a problem for anyone in this division when it comes to fighting on the feet. He has knockout power in all of his limbs and his grappling seems to improve every time we see him fight. He’s coming off impressive wins over Renato Moicano, Bobby Green, and Brad Ridell. Many consider him to be a future contender at 155, but first he’s still somewhat untested as he’s never been in a five round fight. Fiziev does an excellent job moving side-to-side and forcing his opponents to compromise their footwork in striking exchanges. Additionally, this helps him to defend takedowns as it’s tough for his opponents to get on good angles for entries. To date, Fiziev has an impressive 99 percent takedown in the UFC. As impressive as that number is, he really hasn’t faced a ‘grapple-first’ opponent like he will be against Dos Anjos in this matchup. This is a very tough fight to call as each fighter has clear paths to victory. Dos Anjos should have a cardio and grappling advantage here, but he’ll only be able to lean on that if he can protect himself early. I wouldn’t bet the favorite at the current line, but I’m siding with the tough and explosiveness of Fiziev in this spot. Dos Anjos has been solid lately, but he’s mostly been taking on short notice opponents – none of which compare to Fiziev in terms of power or technical striking ability. Again, this one could certainly go either way and the line is too wide. However I expect Fiziev can land something powerful early and find a finish before his cardio becomes a major factor. Rafael Fiziev by Round Two KO

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS