3 Players Who’ll Most Likely be Dealt By Trade Deadline
One of the most exciting times on the MLB schedule is the annual trade deadline, which falls on August 2nd this season. But there might not be as many jaw-dropping moves this time around.
As part of the new CBA, the playoff format has been expanded to 12 teams, six per league, meaning there’s an extra postseason spot up for grabs in both circuits. That’s expected to result in fewer sellers leading up to the trade deadline.
Of course, having more competitive franchises is a positive thing. It’s something the Players Association has been striving to achieve for several seasons. Though an unintended consequence of that is it will impact the trade market.
With more teams jockeying for playoff positions, there’ll undoubtedly be far more buyers than sellers this season. That’s sure to drive up the prices. There also aren’t expected to be any superstars dealt this summer, unlike how Max Scherzer and Trea Turner were moved last year.
Trades will be made, however, they just might include players who haven’t become household names yet. So who’s most likely to be moved?
Let’s start with the starting pitching market. Without question, Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo and Oakland’s Frankie Montas are the best two arms available. There are expected to be several interested suitors for both hurlers.
The only problem is there’s no guarantee the Reds will pull the trigger on a deal for Castillo. They’ve reportedly been listening to offers on the 29-year-old over the last few seasons, but have previously attached a very high price tag next to his name.
If that doesn’t change, Castillo, who’ll be eligible for free agency after 2023, is likely to remain put. That could be good news for the Athletics and Montas, though.
The 29-year-old, who can also become a free agent following the ‘23 season, was already more likely to be traded than Castillo. Oakland is in the first year of its rebuild and isn’t finished tearing down its roster – Montas remains their biggest trade chip.
Having Castillo passed over would only increase the interest level around Montas. As a result, the already thin pitching market would be centred around the Athletics’ ace, improving any potential package they’d receive in return.
That is, of course, assuming he’s healthy. Montas departed his most recent start on July 3 after facing just four batters. He was later diagnosed with shoulder inflammation and is currently considered day-to-day.
At best, Montas could make one final start prior to the all-star break if he clears this recent injury hiccup. More importantly, though, Oakland needs its right-hander to return to action before the end of July.
The 6’2” hurler has enjoyed a strong performance thus far, posting a 3.26 ERA and a 3.35 xERA across 96.2 innings in 17 starts. He also owns a 25.8 percent strikeout rate, a 6.2 percent walk rate and a 1.9 fWAR rating.
Whoever acquires Montas will fortify their starting rotation for the rest of this season and the following one, as well.
Moving on to the position player group, the Chicago Cubs possess an extremely intriguing trade chip. And no, it’s not catcher Willson Contreras. Though, they could deal him as well.
The likelier trade could involve switch-hitting outfielder Ian Happ. With the Cubs currently sitting 15 games below .500 and seemingly multiple years away from being competitive again, there may not be a better time to trade the 27-year-old.
Happ, who’s under team control through ‘23, is likely headed elsewhere once he hits the open market. So he probably isn’t re-signing with Chicago. Since he’s a season and a half away from reaching free agency, his value is likely at its peak right now.
Better yet, the former ninth overall selection from 2015 would provide a ton of value on a contending team. He can serve as a difference-maker with both his bat and glove – a rare commodity in today’s era.
At the plate, Happ has hit eight home runs and 38 RBIs, slashing .282/.378/.454 over 333 plate appearances in 81 contests. The Cubs’ switch-hitter has also recorded a 132 wRC+ score and a career-best 12.6 offensive WAR rating.
Defensively, the 6’0” outfielder probably isn’t going to win any Gold Gloves, however, his versatility is what makes him so appealing.
This season, Happ has appeared in left and centre field, logging 625.0 combined innings. For his career, he’s previously spent time in all three outfield spots and at first, second and third base. The only positions he hasn’t played are shortstop and catcher.
If the Cubs want to maximize their return, it might be beneficial to package Happ with one of their top-end relievers, potentially closer David Robertson. Together, that duo is likely to land a sizable haul of prospects.
Circling back to Cincinnati, infielder Brandon Drury is another intriguing blip on the radar of several different teams. It’d be shocking not to see him playing for another club down the stretch.
The 29-year-old has certainly endured an unusual path to stardom. After spending his first three big-league seasons with the Arizona Diamondbacks, he was briefly a New York Yankee before being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2018.
Then, following two and a half campaigns north of the border, Drury served as a reserve for the New York Mets last season. He only appeared in 51 games, but displayed some promise after slashing .274/.307/.476 with four home runs and 14 RBIs.
Drury bet on himself earlier this year, agreeing to a minor-league contract with the Reds. Nothing was guaranteed to him. And yet, he’s exploded during the first half and is enjoying a breakout performance.
The 6’2” right-hander has registered career-highs in home runs (17), SLG (.524), OPS (.853), ISO (.255), wRC+ (131) and offensive WAR (9.4). He currently sits tied for the sixth-most home runs, the eighth-highest ISO and the 10th-highest SLG among qualified NL hitters, according to FanGraphs.
For any franchise looking to improve its offense at the deadline, Drury, who can play both second and third base, is likely to be at the top of their list.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: Keith Allison. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.