Happy Sunday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (5/29) MLB slate. The weather is warming up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles at least twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We went 1-2 last time out, so we fell to a 12-16 record on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things have been a bit better than they seem. We have a solid Sunday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider.
Season Record: (12-16)
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals @ 2:15 EST
Nick’s Pick: Milwaukee Brewers, Money Line, -140
Miles Mikolas has been solid this season, but he’s due for considerable statistical regression as his 4.53 xFIP sits nearly two full points higher than his 1.96 ERA. The Brewers have the most HRs in the NL with 61. They’re also top-10 in the MLB in SLG%, Runs, and Stolen Bases. Additionally, their projected starting lineup boasts an impressive .207 ISO against RHP.
Corbin Burnes is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He enters this start with a 3.40 xFIP and a 30.5% K Rate on the season. This Cardinals lineup has an underwhelming .132 ISO against RHP. The Brewers have won each of Burnes’ last three games and they look like excellent value to win today at just -140.
Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics @ 4:07 EST
Nick’s Pick: Texas Rangers, Money Line, -130
Dane Dunning has been solid for the Rangers, carrying a 3.70 xFIP and an excellent 51.4% groundball rate to start the season. Today he’ll be taking on an Athletics offense that carries a terrible .288 wOBA against RHP and an MLB worst .212 batting average. The Athletics have scored the fourth fewest runs in the MLB in 2022 with just 167 across 49 games.
James Kaprielian comes into this start with an ugly 5.29 xFIP, allowing a brutal .300 ISO to RHH. The Rangers have scored 7+ runs in three of their last four games. I’m a bit surprised by the value we’re getting on the Texas Rangers moneyline here. Dunning is underrated and the Rangers are going for a four game series sweep. I think they convert.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers, Team Total, Over 5.5 Runs (-110)
Davies is carrying an ugly 5.03 xFIP into this start. He’s allowing a .229 ISO to RHH so far this season and he’s allowed a combined 12 ER over his last three starts. He allowed 5 ER over just 4 IP when he last faced the Dodgers back on 5/18. The Dodgers have scored the most Runs in the MLB so far this season with 259. They have the best team OPS in baseball with a .773. They have scored 6+ Runs in four of their last six games played and the Diamondbacks have the 4th worst bullpen ERA in baseball with a shaky 4.52.
I expect the Dodgers bats to hop on Davies early here, and they should be able to run up the score against this mediocre bullpen. At a price of just -110, I’m comfortably backing the over on their 5.5 Run Team Total.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS