Happy Tuesday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (4/26) MLB slate. The season is just getting underway, but there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust from last season. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles at least twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
Progress! We went 2 for 3 last time out to improve to an ugly 2-7.. It feels good to shed that zero though. Let’s get back at it now with a little momentum. We have a solid Tuesday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider.
Season Record: (2-7)
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Milwaukee Brewers, RL (-1.5) -110
Brandon Woodruff had a shaky start to the season, but he seems to be rounding into form. He looked great his last time out, striking out nine Pirates while holding them to 0 ER over six one-hit innings. In spite of his early struggles, he’s holding both RHH and LHH to a sub .050 ISO and a combined 27.5% Hard Contact Rate which is well below the league average.
Tonight he’ll be facing off with the same Pirates lineup he dominated last week. Pittsburgh’s projected starters carry a terrible .297 wOBA and a meager .135 ISO against RHP so far in 2022. Milwaukee still has one of the best bullpens in baseball, their bats are finally starting to heat up, and they’ll have a solid chance to build on that momentum against a mediocre arm in Mitch Keller.
Keller will be getting the nod for the Pirates here. He’s been terrible pitching at home in PNC over the past two seasons, with a 5.15 FIP in Pittsburgh in 2021 and a brutal 2.73 WHIP at home to start his 2022. The moneyline feels a bit too juicy for a divisional contest, but there is clear value on the near even money -1.5 runline. I’ll happily back the Brewers on the road here to cover the 1.5 run spread
Houston Astros @ Texas Ranger @ 8:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: Houston Astros, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs, -130
Taylor Hearn just hasn’t found any consistency at the MLB level, and his match-up with the Astros tonight is unlikely to help his cause. He comes into this start with an ugly 4.96 xFIP since the start of 2021. He’s allowing a .230+ ISO to both RHH and LHH so far in 2022 and his 9% swinging strike rate suggests he’s having trouble missing any bats.
The Astros projected starting lineup has an ISO just shy of .200 against LHP since the start of 2021. They came into Monday night 4th in the MLB with 18 HRs. They’re going to benefit hitting in Globe Life Field here and with their team total set at just 4.5 runs, I’m more than happy to pay a little juice for the number (-130).
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s PIck: Los Angeles Dodgers, Team Total Over 5.5 Runs -110
Zach Davies hasn’t been terrible so far this season, but his 4.72 xFIP and .244 BABIP suggest he’s due for some considerable regression. He’s carrying a 5.32 xFIP since the start of 2021 as well as a shaky 44% Hard Contact Rate.
Tonight Davies will be taking a Dodgers lineup that has scored the second most runs in all of baseball to start the season (88). Their projected starters come in with just shy of a .200 team ISO against RHP since the start of 2021. This is a great lineup against a worse than mediocre pitcher. Additionally, the D’Backs entered Monday night with the second worst bullpen ERA in all of the MLB. The Dodgers team total sits at a healthy 5.5, but I’m happy to take the over near even money.