The NFL isn’t the place to rest on your laurels. In the past week, the Las Vegas Raiders have witnessed the Denver Broncos trade for a superstar quarterback, and the Los Angeles Chargers bolster their front seven with one of the best defensive players of the 21st century. Oh, and the Kansas City Chiefs still exist. The AFC West is an arms race, and the Raiders have to swing for the fences or surrender.
Let’s preface this by saying the Raiders are not a bad football team. They finished with a 10-7 record in 2021 and made the playoffs before being eliminated by the Cincinnati Bengals in the wildcard round. Still, Football Outsiders Pythagorean Wins formula said they were more like a 7-win team, based on their -65 points differential. By the estimations of EPA, they were also a below-average offensive team and defensive team. Overall, probably not worth the 10 wins they accumulated, but they had their moments in 2021. Like their overtime win against the Dallas Cowboys or that Week 18 victory against the Chargers.
Flawed? Yes. Bad? No. But, considering the rosters and movement around the rest of the AFC West, being not bad just isn’t good enough now. The Raiders finished with a 3-3 record against the rest of the division in 2021, but unless they make significant adjustments to their roster, they’ll find themselves on the outside looking in come playoff time.
The natural heavyweights of the division are the Chiefs. With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, they’ll remain perennial contenders for the next 10 years. It certainly helps that he has the offensive talent around him to flourish, but if you’ve watched Mahomes play football, you’ll know he also has the “it factor”.
The Chargers have Justin Herbert, one of the game’s young stars at quarterback. Given his skillset, there’s every reason to believe that Herbert might one day be a top 5 quarterback in the NFL – and he’s only 24 years old. They’re also committed to rebuilding a porous defense by trading for All-Pro edge defender Khalil Mack. Even a slightly better defense makes the Chargers real contenders in 2022.
And now, the Broncos. The defacto basement dwellers of the West for the past two seasons. Denver had built one of the stronger rosters in the NFL, but the lack of an elite quarterback held them back and was the primary reason they’ve won just 12 games over the last two years. Adding Russell Wilson makes the Broncos instant contenders.
If you’re counting, that’s three viable contenders in one division. And that leaves the Raiders feeling very, very uncomfortable. The roster has a lot of holes to fill if Las Vegas wants to join that club. The offensive line is bottom ten in the NFL and has greatly contributed to a barely functioning run game.
The defense started the season hot but trailed off, but it was a breakout season for Maxx Crosby and rookie Nate Hobbs, who staked his claim as one of the best slot corners in the league. The Raiders have talented players on both sides of the ball, and Derek Carr is a good to an occasionally great quarterback but has a lot working against him.
As a whole, the Raiders have their flaws heading into 2022. And that’s why they may have to make a big decision during free agency and the rest of the offseason. If they’re committed to seeing out the rest of Derek Carr’s contract – only one more season – and thinking of working out a long-term extension, then something has to change. If the Raiders believe they can win a Super Bowl with Carr at the helm, then something has to change. If they don’t think it’s possible and plan to move on from Carr now or next season, then something has to change.
The point is that Vegas can’t simply run it back and hope for different results. The Raiders are the obvious fourth-best team in the AFC West at the moment, and that’s without free agency and the NFL Draft really getting into gear. It would take a significant amount of roster movement for it to change, though. The Raiders have the cap space ($29,778,638, per Spotrac, 8th-most in the NFL) to make a splash, but the free agency pool is getting smaller and smaller, so the task becomes that much more difficult. There’s just too much ground to be made up.
Given that the Raiders play the rest of the AFC West six times a year, it’s reasonable to suggest that they would struggle to put together a winning record if they lose the majority of those games. There’s every chance the Raiders become the punching bag of the West with this roster.
So, if they can’t make a splash in free agency or find ways to dramatically upgrade their roster, maybe it’s time to move in another direction. Maybe it’s time to pull the plug on this era of Raiders football. It might not make fans feel all that good, but it could be a smart move, strategically speaking.
If there was ever a time to cash out, it would be now. Carr only has one year left on his contract, and if the Raiders don’t want to extend him then looking for a trade partner makes sense. Even with just one year on his deal, Carr would probably command a promising return for the Raiders.
It doesn’t need to be a full-scale, tear it down to the studs type of makeover. The Raiders wouldn’t and shouldn’t trade the likes of Maxx Crosby, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and Nate Hobbs. They can be important building blocks for the future and would also be a reason for fans to stay invested. Good football players are fun to watch.
Losing isn’t, though.
But, if we’re being realistic, it’s inevitable regardless of whether or not the Raiders go in a different direction or if they make a splash in free agency. There’s no time to tread water anymore, and the Raiders can’t pat themselves on the back for making the postseason last year all offseason. Something has to change, it just depends whether Vegas is going all in, or cashing out.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @ThomasValenfine