With the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament set to kick off this week, fans across the nation are busy filling out their brackets in the hopes of beating the odds and winning their March Madness pools.
There’s a reason the odds of a perfect bracket are roughly 1 in 9.2 quintillion, picking upsets is tricky business. But that’s precisely what we’ll aim to do here as we make the case for four juicy upsets in round 1 of the tournament:
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Virginia Tech
In a vacuum, one would expect Texas to get by the Hokies in this one. But momentum is a very real thing when it comes to college athletics. And VT has momentum by the bucket loads at the moment.
After stumbling out of the gates to a 10-10 record, Mike Young’s team rattled off a 13-2 record down the stretch, capped off by a massive win over Duke in the ACC Tournament championship game. The win marked the first ACC championship in program history, and gives the Hokies the confidence that they can hang with the blue blood programs in college hoops.
Meanwhile the Longhorns dropped their last three games of the season and failed to score more than 63 points in any contest. Texas certainly has the talent to compete with Virginia Tech, but Chris Beard’s squad doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with teams if the game turns into a track meet.
The player to watch in this matchup is Hokies Junior Guard Hunter Cattoor who is currently shooting 41.8% from 3 this season and had a game against Florida State where he dropped 9 shots from beyond the arc. If he hits a few shots early on and VT builds a comfortable lead, this one is likely over.
Texas is a solid team, but they aren’t built to overcome large deficits. If they’re trailing at halftime, they’re in a world of trouble.
Pick: Virginia Tech
No. 6 Colorado St. vs. No. 11 Michigan
Michigan came into the year as the 6th ranked team nationally in both the AP Poll and the coaches poll. Fast forward to the end of the year and the Wolverines were lucky to make the tournament at all with a 17-14 record.
But when it’s win or go home, all that other stuff goes out the window. Afterall, in March, anything can happen. The Rams had themselves a great season, finishing with a 25-5 record. They’re solid across the board and hit their free throws at a high percentage (which is always helpful this time of year).
Unfortunately for them, they have the misfortune of drawing Michigan in round one. Colorado State moves the ball well, but if their shots aren’t falling from the outside, they’ll be in for a long afternoon in this one.
The Rams simply don’t have the personnel to match up inside with 7’1” Sophomore Hunter Dickinson. The Center is currently averaging 18.3pts/8.3reb/1.4blks per game, and figures to loom large in this matchup.
The Wolverines may be the lower seed, but sports books are currently favouring them by -2.5pts with -145 moneyline odds at the moment. Colorado State COULD get a win here, but there’s a TON of things that would need to go right for them to pull it off.
Pick: Michigan
No. 6 LSU vs. No. 11 Iowa State
Neither of these teams instils much confidence in bettors heading into this game, and whoever emerges victorious is likely to get rolled by Wisconsin in round 2. That being said, Iowa State appears to be in less of a freefall than LSU at the moment.
Despite losing their final 3 games of the season by a combined 55pts, the Cyclones still managed to post a 20-12 record on the year. The knock on Iowa State is obvious, they struggle to score the basketball. But they at least compensate for this by playing tough, hard nosed defense.
LSU probably has the more talented roster with Tari Eason and Darius Days leading the charge, but overall they have a tendency to play sloppy, disorganized basketball which usually comes back to haunt teams this time of year.
The Tigers are a turnover prone team to begin with. But couple that with the fact that they just lost head coach Will Wade days before the tournament kicks off, and you’ve got yourself a team in shambles.
LSU posted a 22-11 record on the year, but finished the season a pedestrian 3-4. And that was before the media frenzy over Wade’s dismissal descended upon the team. If the Cyclones can score off the Tiger turnovers, then they could cruise to victory in this one. On the other hand, if LSU manages to score 70+ pts, it’s tough to envision a scenario where the Cyclones can match that level of offense.
If this were a championship calibre team that lost their head coach, you could make the argument they might be able to use it as a rallying point. But given the fact that LSU isn’t expected to make any significant runs this year, there’s likely already players on this roster who are looking into offseason vacation plans.
Pick: Iowa State
No. 7 Ohio St. vs. No. 10 Loyola-Chicago
Frankly we thought about going all 6 vs. 11 seeds as upsets, but without knowing for certain whether it would be Rutgers or Notre Dame taking on the Jekyll/Hyde Alabama squad, we opted for a different direction here.
Ohio State can score with the best of them. EJ Liddell was named to the All-Big Ten first team this season, and the Buckeyes have wins over 7 other tournament teams on the year. The problem is they have a tough time clamping down defensively.
That doesn’t bode well for their matchup against Loyola-Chicago. Anyone who’s watched the tournament over the past few seasons knows that this time of year is when Sister Jean and the crew from the Windy City shine brightest. The Ramblers went 25-7 this year and won the MVC tournament championship.
Loyola went all the way to the Final Four as an 11 seed back in 2018, and made it to the Sweet 16 as an 8 seed in 2021, so they’re used to their roles as underdogs. Led by Senior Guard Lucas Williamson and Luol Deng’s cousin Aher Uguak, the Ramblers are an absolute menace defensively.
Couple that with their 56% FG percentage from 2pt range (top 25 in the country), and Loyola has the ability to hang with any opponent and grind out wins. With victories over 4 other tournament teams, plus closely contested affairs with Michigan St. and Auburn, Drew Valentine’s team will make the Buckeyes work for every basket in round one.
With the Buckeyes currently on a 3 game skid, and losers of 4 of their last 5 contests, this one has all the hallmarks of an upset.
Pick: Loyola-Chicago
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @JKyleSkinner