UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira II – Full Card Analysis

UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira II – 3.7.2026 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira II. This card is stacked including a fight for the BMF Title here at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few. 

Current Record

• Anthony: 46-18-0 (Last Year 331-183-3, 64%)
• Nick: 45-19-0 (Last Year 326-188-3, 63%)

*Fight odds were last updated from bet365 on 3-6-2026 at 6pm EST

Early Prelims- Starts 5:30pm EST

Luke Fernandez -240 vs Rodolfo Bellato +190

• Anthony: Opening the card is this light heavyweight fight between Rodolfo Bellato and Luke Fernandez. This is the promotional debut for Fernandez who earned his contract last year on Dana White’s Contender Series. The undefeated prospect seems like a good fit for the roster despite getting a bit of a late start to his professional career. Fernandez is a strong grappler that has also begun to put it together more with his hands. He carries great power in that frame and packs enough punch to certainly hurt Bellato. This is a matchup that makes sense in terms of Fernandez’ overall development. Bellato is not a huge step up in competition from the opponents faced regionally for Fernandez in CFFC. While Bellato does move forward and look to engage with opponents, he has poor defense and leaves himself exposed too much to counter attacks. Fernandez will likely be able to put his hands on Bellato before any moments where he would get hurt himself. I could also see Fernandez winning here thanks to his jiu jitsu. Bellato could end up getting himself into trouble attempting to initiate clinch exchanges along the octagon side. Fernandez seems like the better overall athlete and a much smarter fighter than Bellato. Luke Fernandez by Round Two KO
• Nick: Luke Fernandez will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive KO win over Rafael Pergentino on Contender Series back in October of 2025. He is 6-0 professionally, with five of those six wins coming via KO. Fernandez has found most of his professional success on the feet, but he’s an underrated wrestler who has been working hard on his offensive grappling at Dante Rivera BJJ. He is a former CFFC Light Heavyweight Champion, and even though he’s getting a late jump into promotion at 30 years old he seems to be making major improvements from fight to fight. Rodolfo Bellato is 12-3-1 professionally, with seven of those wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. He is entering his athletic prime at 30-years old and he fights out of a solid camp via Team Nogueira in Brazil. Bellato is a kill-or-be-killed style fighter who tends to succeed in chaos. He nearly lost his promotional debut to Ihor Potieria, but after weathering an early storm, he managed to take the fight over and then as he scored a ground-and-pound finish in the second round. Bellato often finds success when he is the better grappler in a fight, but that is unlikely to be the case for him here in this match-up. The line feels wide here as Bellato is generally durable and can compete in this fight on the feet. Still, it seems likely Fernandez will push him up against the cage here and eventually get this fight to the mat. No matter where this one goes, Fernandez should be able to stay a step ahead. Luke Fernandez by Round Three KO

Rafael Tobias -190 vs Diyar Nurgozhay +160

• Anthony: Next is another matchup at light heavyweight between Rafael Tobias and Diyar Nurgozhay. This is the promotional debut for Tobias who earned his contract last year on Dana White’s Contender Series. I like what I have seen out of this athlete who is still just 22 years old. The Brazilian has not yet faced any real quality competition but he does a very good job striking and mixing in his attacks on the mat. Training at Chute Boxe in Brazil I think Tobias has a bright future ahead of him. I like that he seems to be measured and capable of taking his time despite fighting here in a weight class full of heavy hitters. Tobias also has the ability to finish fights by utilizing his jiu jitsu. I do not know exactly what to think of Nurgozhay who had previously entered the promotion as undefeated. Not only has Nurgozhay lost in both of his promotional appearances, but he has looked awful doing so. Nurgozhay does not appear to have the cardio to fight for multiple rounds. He also seems to be inept in terms of his grappling, quickly succumbing to submission attempts in both of those fights. Please consider looking at props for submission once again since Nurgozhay really will not have any answers if taken down just once by Tobias. Nurgozhay perhaps has upside that we have not seen but +160 is not going to be enough to tempt me on taking him. Tobias seems like the rightful favorite here in a matchup that I expect him to easily win. Rafael Tobias by Round Two KO
• Nick: Rafael Tobias will be making his UFC debut here, with a 14-1 professional record at just 21 years old. He enters this match-up off an impressive win via submission over Jair de Oliveira in the Contender Series. Tobias is generally well-rounded, entering this match-up with five wins via KO and six via submission. That being said, he does look to grapple in almost all of his professional fights. His entries for takedowns are somewhat uninspiring, but once he gets his opponents to the mat he has excellent offensive BJJ.  Diyar Nurgozhay is 10-2 professionally and 28 years old. He’s well rounded, with six of his ten wins coming by KO and two by submission. While decent everywhere, he prefers to stand and exchange on his feet. He’s a powerful and athletic striker who does a good job crashing distance, even as one of the shorter fighters in the division. While he’s gifted offensively, he’s coming off back to back losses at the UFC banner and it seems that he’s hitting a plateau in terms of his development. Tobias is still far from refined when it comes to his overall skills, but Nurgozhay has been exposed as a fighter who doesn’t quite seem UFC level. He’ll need to stay safe early here, but I expect he can work this fight to the mat where he should be able to secure a submission as this fight wears on. Rafael Tobias by Round Two Submission

Sumudaerji -240 vs Jesus Aguilar +190

• Anthony: Next is a fight at flyweight between Sumudaerji and Jesus Aguilar. Since joining the promotion I would say that Aguilar has exceeded a lot of expectations. The Mexican fighter is 4-2 in the promotion with only losses coming against skilled competition in Rafael Estevam and Tatsuro Taira. Despite the fact Aguilar is very small for this weight class he does not let size really impact his fighting style whatsoever. He is a consistent fighter on offense blending his boxing skills with some solid footwork. Sumudaerji is the technically better striker who also has much more power when boxing. However, these are flyweights and I do not think Aguilar will end up getting flatlined here by one of Sumudaerji’s straight shots. Aguilar should be able to put forth enough volume to really keep this matchup competitive on the feet. Aguilar also has a clear edge here grappling if he is able to get Sumudaerji down to the mat. We have seen Aguilar finish numerous fights before by locking in the guillotine choke. Watch for him to get a few attacks on Sumudaerji’s neck, especially if we see him starting to tire out in rounds two and three. At nearly +200 odds I think Aguilar is a good underdog pick here for this event. Jesus Aguilar by Decision
• Nick: Sumudaerji is primarily a striker. He keeps a wide and open stance, and his outstanding speed and footwork make him a tough target for any opponent on the counter. His power is solid, but his outstanding volume and counter striking ability are his greatest strengths. As dangerous as he is on the feet, his defensive grappling is a major hole in his game and his cardio and durability seem to be more likely to be weaknesses than they are strengths at this point in his career. Jesus Aguilar is 12-2 professionally, coming off a decision win over Luis Gurule. He’s a decent striker and relatively athletic, but his grappling is his greatest strength as seven of his twelve professional wins have come via submission. Aguilar is 4-2 under the UFC banner and he’s already found more success than many thought he would in entering the promotion. Sumudaerji is the better striker in this match-up and he’s going to have a massive 10 “ reach advantage. That being said, Aguilar has the ability to force a pace here and if he can take this fight to the mat he will be very live for a finish. This is a low confidence play, but I see value on this underdog. Jesus Aguilar by Round Two Submission

Preliminary Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel -165 vs Cody Durden +140

• Anthony: This bout is a fight at flyweight between Nyamjargal Tumendemberel and Cody Durden. I was tempted to take Durden here in this spot but after further consideration I do not think he will end up emerging victorious. It is not hard to get behind Durden generally as the underdog but overall he has gone 1-5 over his previous six appearances. Durden fights hard for his bettors but he is also becoming less reliable now at age 34 fighting in this division. Here he will be looking to grapple and test Tumendemberel’s takedown defense. Thus far we have seen Tumendemberel defend just 54 percent of takedowns fighting under the UFC banner. Durden averages more than one takedown landed per round and he will consistently move forward tonight in order to chase Tumendemberel down to the mat. I think that Durden can win a large portion of the early exchanges in this fight. However, it is not going to take very much from Tumendemberel to get back into this bout with just a few clean strikes. Compared to Durden, Tumendemberel hits very hard and boasts fight ending skills when these two are at moments standing upright and kickboxing. I believe that Durden will ultimately get stopped in this fight after appearing to control Tumendemberel for the first several minutes. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel by Round Two KO
• Nick: Cody Durden is a well-rounded and gritty fighter who finds most of his success using his wrestling to keep pressure on his opponents. He’s more than competent on the feet, but in most matchups we see him try to score takedowns to control position and grind out wins on the scorecards. He is 1-5in his last six fights, and there’s a chance he’s fighting to hold his roster spot in this match-up. That being said, there is no denying that this particular match-up represents a considerable step down for him in terms of level of competition. Tumendemberel is 27 years old and 9-1 professionally. He’s primarily a grappler with six of his nine professional wins coming via submission, but he really hasn’t been tested against top-level competition. Tumendemberel is quick and athletic, and has finishing ability both on the mat and on the feet. On the feet, Tumendemberel throws powerful hooks but they are mostly telegraphed and predictable. He has dangerous offensive grappling ability, but his wrestling leaves a lot to be desired. Tumendemberel is the more potent finisher here, but I expect Durden can lean on his fundamentals to work his way back into the win column. He’s the much better striker, and the better technical wrestler here by a wide margin. His Fight IQ and durability are certainly cause for concern, but this is another underdog that seems to carry solid value. Cody Durden by Decision

Alberto Montes -190 vs Ricky Turcios +160

• Anthony: Next is a fight at featherweight between Alberto Montes and Ricky Turcios. This is the promotional debut for Montes who earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. It is interesting to see him matched up here against Turcios who is the much more skilled fighter overall. Turcios prefers to do his work while striking although he is serviceable in all areas. He has lost in both previous appearances and while a move up to featherweight could be beneficial to his cardio, I also worry that Turcios is a bit undersized. Montes is a blackbelt in jiu jitsu who should be respected for his elite grappling. He has secured victories by anaconda choke in back to back appearances. Montes can sometimes be reckless jumping to attack the neck of his opponents. He does very well catching the front headlock and transitioning to finishing moves from that dominant position. I am expecting Montes to catch Turcios at some point here, wrapping him up and likely causing a longer grappling sequence. Turcios defends just 44 percent of opponent takedown attempts. There is also no real clear path to victory for Turcios as his striking does not seem that threatening or much better than that of Montes. He should not be relied on to score consistently on offense throughout this fight. Montes is one of my more confident picks for today’s event. Alberto Montes by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Alberto Montes will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win via submission over Carlos Calderson back in October of 2024. Montes is 31 years old and 10-1 professionally. Montes is dangerous and competent everywhere, but his front choke series is what stands out about him when you watch him on film. Six of his ten professional wins have come via submission and he trains out of a solid upcoming camp via Goat Shed MMA. Ricky Turcois is a highly aggressive and a generally creative striker. He’s solid in scrambles as well, but he finds most of his success in the middle of the cage just striking at range. He can be hittable, but he’s undoubtedly durable and willing to get into a dog fight. All this being said, he’s failed to impress at the UFC level. He is 2-3 in the promotion, against a relatively low level of opponent. He’s inconsistent and overly tentative at times. There are a lot of questions surrounding Montes here as he’s been out of action for a while, but Turcois seems to be regressing rapidly across his last few fights. This should be competitive early, but Montes should get what he wants as this fight wears on. Alberto Montes by Round Two Submission

Donte Johnson -800 vs Cody Brundage +550

• Anthony: The next fight is a matchup at middleweight between Cody Brundage and Donte Johnson. This seems like very favorable matchmaking for Johnson as he makes his second appearance in the promotion today. He is 7-0 with all of his wins thus far coming inside of the distance. Brundage remained active fighting three times last year and already once this year at the last numbered event. He was defeated by Cam Rowston in that fight just weeks ago, quickly succumbing to the much better overall fighter. Brundage’s resume leaves a lot to be desired. He is a mediocre fighter in terms of skill but he has also had performances that display rather lackluster effort. I cannot fault Brundage for remaining active but there is no way he had a sufficient camp in preparation for this bout just one month removed from his last. Johnson was in peak physical shape on the scales Friday while Brundage again looked like he rolled out of bed and onto the weigh-in stage. He has unreliable cardio and very little grit for a cage fighter. I think this is a very obvious choice as Johnson should roll through Brundage without issue. I would be surprised if this fight went over 1.5 total rounds. Johnson will find a win by knockout here very early. Donte Johnson by Round One KO
• Nick: Donte Johnson has had an interesting career, as it seems he has been fluctuating in weight and taking on a relatively low level of regional opponents. He is 7-0 professionally, with six of those wins coming via KO and one coming via submission. The submission win was recorded his last time out, in his UFC debut against Sedriques Dumas. He’s an explosive athlete, a decent wrestler, and he carries true KO power in his strikes. That being said, he’s still very raw in his general abilities. Cody Brundage has a powerful wrestling base and he does a good job pouring damage on his opponents if he can find himself in top position. He can be dangerous on the feet, but he telegraphs most of his strikes and recently it seems his cardio has become a major weakness. He is 11-8-1 professionally, but he’s been wildly inconsistent since he made his UFC debut. He enters this fight off back to back losses, and he is another fighter that is likely to hold his roster position on this card. The line is ridiculous here and Johnson seems somewhat overrated as a prospect. Still, this match-up as as good as it gets for him as Brundage has struggled to find any sustained success over the past few years. No matter where this one goes, I see Johnson eventually finding Brundage’s chin and ushering him out of the promotion once and for all. Donte Johnson by Round Two KO

Xiao Long -155 vs Cody Garbrandt +130

• Anthony: The featured prelim is a fight at bantamweight between Xiao Long and Cody Garbrandt. This should be a competitive matchup throughout as Xiao gets to face the former world champion. Garbrandt has still been fighting competitively here at the age of 34 despite not being nearly the fighter he once was in his prime. Fighting at bantamweight has allowed Garbrandt to face very talented opponents while still remaining competitive. The only concern for me surrounding Garbrandt is his chin and overall durability. Long is a fighter that can win exchanges here thanks to his power, although most of the time Garbrandt will likely prove to be quicker throughout most moments on the feet. Garbrandt has elite boxing and handspeed that is still nearly impossible to match. He should be able to control this fight against Long by using his footwork and landing the higher volume of strikes. On average Garbrandt forces opponents to miss on 59 percent of their attempted significant strikes. Both men here are confident in their wrestling skillset but unlikely to shoot for multiple takedowns if the fight remains competitive on the feet. It is tough handicapping such a volatile matchup, but Garbrandt does seem like the value side as a small betting underdog. I expect the judge’s will favor his output tonight if he can survive to see a decision. Cody Garbrandt by Decision
• Nick: Xiao Long is 27-10 professionally, with five wins coming via KO and nine coming via submission At just 27 years old, he continues to show massive improvements from fight to fight in all facets of his game. He is 1-2 in the UFC, most recently falling to a tough out in Su Young You via Decision. He is a high volume striker who fights at a torrid pace. He’s dangerous everywhere, but his aggressive style makes him susceptible to damage in exchanges.Cody Garbrandt, a former bantamweight champion, has been struggling to stay active. His chin and durability seem to have mostly dissolved, as he’s lost seven of his last ten fights. At his best, Garbrandt is a highly technical striker who can frustrate his opponents with precision and speed. He has a decent wrestling base as a long-time member of Team Alpha Male, and he’s also shown to have surprising power for his limited frame. He has lost some speed over the years, but he has mostly been losing to an upper level of competition. Garbrandt’s skills have rapidly regressed, but this is a major step down for him in terms of level of competition. A risky play given the youth and athleticism advantages for Long, but Garbrandt’s advanced skills justify taking a shot on him here as an underdog. Cody Garbrandt by Decision

Main Card- Starts 9:00pm EST

Gregory Rodrigues -180 vs Brunno Ferreira +150

• Anthony: The main card begins at middleweight with this battle between Brunno Ferreira and Gregory Rodrigues. This fight is a rematch from a bout that took place in 2023. In their first meeting Rodrigues closed -300 favorite against Ferreira who was still undefeated 9-0 at the time. The Hulk was able to knockout Rodrigues in that matchup, appearing on short notice and making quick work of his promotional debut. I like what we have seen out of Ferreira since then proving to be much more of a complete fighter than one-dimensional brute. He is a potent finisher, but it also appears that Ferreira can grapple and hold his own late in each fight. Rodrigues is the more technically skilled fighter with more weapons compared to the boxing attacks of Brunno. While Ferreira will again look to counter and land with his hands, Rodrigues should consistently be moving forward in this fight and scoring on offense. I think he will be mindful not to overextend himself and get caught like in their first meeting. Rodrigues can land kicks and utilize his reach to keep Ferreira from engaging in the pocket too early. Rodrigues is also a blackbelt in jiu jitsu with much better takedown entries and grappling pressure than Ferreira. I would like to see him rely on his grappling more here in order to limit Ferreira’s own opportunities to score on offense. I think Rodrigues will find a way to take this rematch. Ferreira has a great chance to win once again but he needs another KO in order to do so. Gregory Rodrigues by Decision
• Nick: This fight represents a rematch of a fight that took place back in January of 2023 in which Brunno Ferreira upset Rodrigues with a flash KO in his UFC debut. Both of these fighters have improved since then, but regardless of the outcome this fight should be exciting for however long it wears on. Gregory Rodrigues has a BJJ black belt, but he’s found most of his success just standing and striking at range. He’s massive for the division, but he carries so much muscle that it seems he fades if his fights get into the later rounds. Rodrigues is extremely dangerous offensively, but he telegraphs many of his strikes which leads him open to be countered in chaotic exchanges. Regardless, he’s a potent finisher with a well-rounded overall game. Brunno Ferreira is a powerful and aggressive striker and explosive in terms of his overall athletic ability. He is 6-2 in the UFC, coming off three consecutive wins. While he does have decent grappling ability, there is certainly no denying the fact that Ferreira prefers to stand and trade on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he does a good job countering and finding openings to land his bigger shots. He’s somewhat short in stature compared to the rest of the division, but he more than makes up for it with strength and advanced athleticism. This is a volatile match-up in which we’ve already seen Rodrigues on the wrong end of a KO. That being said, he is the more well-rounded fighter and I do see him as the rightful favorite in this one. He’ll need to stay safe early, but if he leans on his grappling he should be able to pull away. Gregory Rodrigues by Round Two KO

Michael Johnson -120 vs Drew Dober +100

• Anthony: Next is a fight at lightweight between Drew Dober and Michael Johnson. These are veteran staples of the lightweight division who have combined for 59 total appearances in the UFC. Fans will be treated to some great exchanges here as both men prefer to do their work at boxing range. Dober has won honors for Fight of the Night in two of his last three showings. The recent form from Dober has not been aesthetically pleasing but he is still finding a way to win brawls against top level opponents. Both fighters in this matchup also prefer to work from the southpaw stance. Johnson is more sound defensively than Dober, staying at distance more often and utilizing long range weapons like kicks and jabs. Johnson will be quicker too. He has always been known for having great handspeed but I do not think he will match Dober’s volume over the course of a three round fight. Dober will continue to pressure forward throughout this bout and land offense constantly against Johnson. It is anyone’s guess as to which fighter takes more of these exchanges but I do worry about Dober being more susceptible to a knockdown than Johnson seems. The odds have settled here near pick’em which makes sense as I handicap this as a true coinflip. Dober is my preference due to his more aggressive style. Drew Dober by Decision
• Nick: Drew Dober throws extremely heavy and precise strikes, his timing is excellent offensively, and the power in his counters make him a threat against almost anyone on the feet. As dangerous as Dober is standing, his grappling ability leaves a lot to be desired. Four of his nine UFC losses have come via submission. He has notable KO wins over Bobby Green, Rafael Alves, and Nasrat Haqparast, but it seems he is slowing down rapidly and his once famous chin is starting to show serious wear. Michael Johnson was once considered a future title contender at 155. He has notable wins over Tony Ferguson, Dustin Poirier, and Edson Barboza. That being said, there’s really no denying he’s a shell of the fighter he was in his prime. Johnson is a highly technical southpaw striker but his fight IQ and durability have deteriorated over the years. That being said, he does still occasionally show flashes of brilliance on the feet. Johnson is going to be the quicker fighter and the better technical striker in this match-up. However, I still give this power and durability advantages to Dober. I expect Johnson to be winning this one until he eventually gets caught, similar to what we saw from him against Diego Ferreira. Drew Dober by Round Two KO

Raul Rosas -240 vs Rob Font +190

• Anthony: Next is a fight at bantamweight between Rob Font and Raul Rosas Jr. This is an easy one to handicap between striker and grappler. The 21-year-old Rosas has already fought six times in the promotion, most recently beating Vince Morales last May. He is going to be a problem as he continues to develop and gain experience. Font is a great test that will push Rosas harder compared to opponents that he has previously faced. This seems like a matchup designed to get Rosas another win. Font has name value and he is a tough, capable boxer but it is impossible to compare his skills to those of Rosas on the mat. His striking is solid but he will not get to throw his hands much against an opponent who is eager to close the distance right away. Rosas does well securing takedowns and forcing his opponents to defend positions. While Rosas himself is not a blackbelt, he has stopped numerous high-level grapplers before. Six of his professional wins have come by submission and I do not expect today’s bout to go any differently. Font has defended just 43 percent of opponent takedowns since joining the UFC. He has been taken down 22 times over his last five bouts. Grappling defense has been a glaring deficiency for him and I think Rosas has the exact style to take advantage of that. Font will not easily succumb to a finish here, but it is important that Rosas does secure position or submission attempts here early on. I do worry about Rosas’ overall cardio and this fight can turn ugly for him quickly if Font is still hanging around at the end. Rosas needs to make smart decisions early to either conserve his energy or secure a choke that ends the bout. Raul Rosas Jr by Round Two Submission
• Nick: Raul Rosas Jr. was at one time, the youngest fighter to ever compete in the UFC. He is 11-1 professionally, entering this fight on a solid four fight win streak. Rosas’ greatest skill is certainly his advanced BJJ, as six of his eleven professional wins have come via submission. His striking continues to improve, but he does leave gaps defensively. Additionally, most of the time he’s striking it’s a means to set up takedown entries to take his opponents to the mat. His wrestling ability is effective, but his hyper aggressive style can lead to him gassing out in fights if he can’ t find an early finish. Rob Font is a very skilled boxer with a solid overall game. He’s had a lot of success in the UFC, outclassing opponents on the feet utilizing nearly flawless footwork and a refined traditional boxing style. As talented as he is, Font is 3-5 across his last eight fights. He does seem to be slowing down a bit at 38 years old, and his defensive grappling generally leaves a lot to be desired. Font will be live for the upset here if he can keep this fight standing, but that seems unlikely as his takedown defense has been a major weakness for him even in his prime. Rosas Jr. is tough to back as a favorite at this price, but he does feel like the side. I expect he can grind this out for a decision on the mat if he can’t find a submission. Raul Rosas Jr by Decision

Caio Borralho -260 vs Reinier de Ridder +210

• Anthony: The co-main event is a fight at middleweight between Reinier de Ridder and Caio Borralho. Both of these men find themselves coming off of losses as they compete inside of the division’s top ten. It will be interesting to see which of the two can make corrections to win here in this pivotal matchup. Borralho lost his last fight against Nassourdine Imavov despite putting forth a decent effort in defeat. He should be able to adjust his gameplan here to face a less dynamic opponent offensively. Borralho has the striking advantage here on paper and obviously he is confident in his ability to grapple. De Ridder lost in his last fight against Brendan Allen but that showing was not nearly as competitive as Borralho’s was. De Ridder got held on the ground for much of that fight and by the end of round four he was too gassed out to continue. I am not concerned with De Ridder surviving for three rounds here tonight but there should be serious concerns regarding him pacing himself in fights moving forward. I also believe De Ridder will struggle to find any areas of success in this matchup. De Ridder is a big and strong middleweight but I do not think Borralho will allow him to win in clinch positions. Fighting Nerds like Borralho should be making improvements and never losing matchups back to back. The Brazilian should get back into the win column here by controlling this matchup versus RDR. Cairo Borralho by Decision
• Nick: Caio Borralho is light on his feet and does a good job peppering his opponents at range. His striking has been impressive in his short UFC tenure, but he’s found most of his success via grappling and advancing on the mat for submissions. He does a good job scoring takedowns both in open space and against the cage. He has solid cardio and durability, and his fighting IQ has proven to be a major strength for him since he made his promotional debut. He’s coming off an ugly loss to Nassourdine Imavov, and he’ll be looking to get back in the win column here against a tough out in Reinier de Ridder. Reiner de Ridder is primarily a grappler, and his offensive BJJ is extremely high level  even by UFC standards. Fourteen of his twenty-one professional wins have come via submission. His striking has come a long way over the past few years, but he mostly uses it as a means to drag his opponents to the mat. He’s 4-0 in the UFC, coming off an ugly loss to Brendan Allen in which he completely gassed out and quit between rounds. He has a massive frame for the division, and with this fight being three rounds instead of five there is a good chance he returns to form here regardless of the fight’s result. This fight should play out closer than this line suggests, but de Ridder has had issues striking against southpaws and Borrolho has the grappling to mostly keep this fight standing. Borralho is a better striker and the more well rounded fighter in this matchup. Caio Borralho by Decision

Max Holloway -200 vs Charles Oliveira +165

• Anthony: The main event is a fight for the BMF Title with Max Holloway rematching Charles Oliveira. These two athletes fought more than ten years ago as prospects early on in their Hall of Fame careers. Both former champions have carved out great legacies in the sport and this fight certainly should get fans excited. Holloway has landed the most significant strikes in history while Oliveira holds records for the most performance bonuses and most wins via submission. He has been involved in some of the most exciting fights of this past decade. Oliveira’s very aggressive style and elite skillset make him a nightmare to gameplan for. Holloway should be confident standing and trading attacks early with Oliveira despite the immense power coming back at him. Holloway has the better footwork and likely does well here evading the blitzes from Oliveira. However, this fight truly gets decided in the exchanges where Oliveira can initiate the clinch. Holloway has largely spent his career outstriking other boxers by comfortable margins. Oliveira is such a dynamic threat because of his ability to finish any fighter on the ground. Seventeen career wins by submission is no joke and a test that Holloway has really not passed before. Although Holloway does average 83 percent takedown defense, he has never opposed a grappler anywhere near this caliber. Holloway should be able to pull away in the latter half of this fight with Oliveira but first he does need to survive those first ten minutes of frantic strikes and grappling scrambles. I think the value here is on Oliveira in the role of underdog where he has historically thrived. Lightweight has been Oliveira’s division and I expect him to take the BMF belt from Holloway tonight to prove that. Charles Oliveira by Round Two Submission
• Nick: This fight is for the BMF title, and it represents a rematch of a fight that took place back in August of 2015. Holloway secured a TKO win in the first instance, but it resulted on the back of a neck/shoulder injury for Oliveira. Max Holloway has outstanding head movement, near flawless footwork, and against inferior strikers he’s known to put on unforgettable performances. He showed a willingness to grapple in his 2021 match-up with Yair Rodriguez, but I fully expect him to try to keep this fight standing as he looks to build on an already outstanding legacy. Holloway lands more than seven significant strikes per minute and he absorbs less than five. He has secured wins in six of his last eight fights. Charles Oliveira is a third-degree black belt in BJJ and pound-for-pound one of the best grapplers in the world. His striking has dramatically improved over the course of his career and he’s recently shown serious improvement in his ability to throw combinations. A former lightweight champion, Oliveira is coming off a solid win via submission of Mateusz Gamrot. This an extremely binary match-up in which Oliveira is the much better grappler and Holloway is the better striker. Oliveira will be live for the upset if he can take this fight to the mat, but it seems more likely Holloway can rely on his jab and footwork to pull away at range until he can eventually score a finish. Max Holloway by Round Four KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com